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Everybody talking about Definitly Red yesterday for the National after his easy win. What it certainly is, is another boost for Bristol De Mai's Haydock demolition job. Otago also came out and franked that form in great fashion also. It would appear BDM was not right at Newbury and would be 10/1Ish if he hadn't run. 25/1 is still value and I've added him to Champagne West & Minella Rocco.
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Like the look of Outlander at decent odds. Has been improving with every run this yr and wasn't stopping at the end of the Lexus.
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I like Bristol De Mai and will definitely be backing him at some point.
Other factors are that he was absolutely hammered in the betting at Newbury and went off favourite - although that might partly have been down to the late jockey change on Native River. Also they took him out of the Ryanair after Newbury I think - whereas NTD used that as a stepping stone before Imperial Commander graduated to staying chases. His festival run last year suggests he's not particularly ground dependent - in fact better ground might well compensate for the extended trip. Looked a thorough stayer at Haydock but had enough speed as a juvenile to win two Grade 1 hurdles at around 2 miles. He's a solid jumper with nothing worse than a 3 in his form figures - albeit the 3 at Newbury was last of 3! I think the excuses for his run at Newbury are plausible and he was probably jumping around there on 3 good legs. |
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I already had him in and can easily envisage him seeing off Native River.
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Cue Card weak today. Out to 5.7...
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Cue Card weak today. Out to 5.7...
Aye, now why would that be? |
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I dont know stewarty.
Perhaps some think because the ground is drying out. Im not sure that's a factor myself as Native River is shortening, and Id fancy he would be more inconvenienced by better ground than CC myself. CC has plenty of good form on spring ground at Cheltenham. |
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I'm on CC at 7/2 ante-post and it's still 3/1 with most books. Providing all is well with the horse I will be dipping my toe in the water again.
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If the ground really dries out and they decide to water the course I hope it's no worse than good to soft. Looked the winner last year until Brennan bottled it. (IMHO)
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9/2 on here now but still 3/1 with most books????
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Cue Card being backed again as I type...
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Don Poli out...I wonder if Empire Of Dirt may now turn up here after all...
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very likely now
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Elliott says that they may well now shuffle the pack, EOD a very likely runner now I'd have thought. Backed it at 20's on here as soon as RUK announced it.
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Ya, EOD will be here bound if Elliot's musing was a guide. I think EOD is 2nd best of the Irish after Djakadam, and is improving; the trip will suit better than the Ryanair too, and 18/1 here (now) is value, I firmly believe.
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Elliot has been trying to get EoD in the GC for ages. Bet he's made up with this!
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Whilst no question Elliott as desperate for the switch i think it's far from certain he will persuade the O'Leary's. After all Outlander has always been considered as the Gold Cup first string rather than Don Poli. If Empire of Dirt switches it only leaves them Sub Lieutenant in there own race.
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Elliot will fix it....done the 1st bit (???).
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Elliot will fix it....done the 1st bit (???).
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Post Don Poli's injury Outlander is friendless here. Could he be Ryanair bound instead?
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123 strikes again
It would be quite difficult for a horse to run in a race he's not entered in |
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Eddie O'Leary's quotes on Racing UK site after the Don Poli news broke are worth repeating:
"We'll run the horses in the race we feel they have the best chance of winning.We're just getting over this news and we don't need to be making any definite plans for the other horses just yet." |
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Why not, just pay a supplementary fee even though he was taken out just a few days ago? John Gosden did with Golden Horn.
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God I hope they swap Outlander and EoD round.
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MOT blue. Maybe got tipped up. I'm a small stake punter, but if he stays around 14's i'll see if i could go back in.
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Cos am pretty sure the supplementary day was today. I'm sure u can't just add a horse to a race whenever u want to
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Outlander not declared for Ryanair, I think they will leave them both where they are. I can't believe how short Empire of Dirt is given that it is a likely non-runner
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Same Bloob. I keep loading up on Sub Lieutenant whilst his price is pinned to Empire to Dirt under the false assumption they'll both run. Bit of good weather and decent ground, SL could easily go off 9-2/4-1
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Djakadam 7/2 is a ridiculous price, it's a lay all day long. Can't have Cue Card either you'd have to imagine a more progressive animal will beat those two. Native River I wouldn't rule out and can certainly picture him in the frame staying on up the hill.
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Some fish got there.. or are u guys for real
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I think this is looking increasingly like the year for Djakadam. He is more experienced and matured; very likely will encounter his ideal ground; a good prep, and the opposition is not that great either.
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Has Cue Card regressed? Can't have Djakadam having improved and Cue Card would have beaten him last year.
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I agree CC would have beaten Djakadam last year the manner the former was going. But Djakadam has an easy and an uninterrupted prep this compare to last year eg falling and cutting himself; Djakadam will most likely get his ground (good) as opposed to CC (softish).
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Being 11 you could argue he is going to have to have regressed but CT think's he is as good as ever. Djakadam put his best performance in when he was 6 on the soft ground I thought, I couldn't be backing either with any confidence as I can make a solid case for them both and Native River let alone the outsiders, so at the prices it's not for me. Djakadam was 6/1 after Thistlecrack was withdrawn, not sure I'd want to be backing him now at 7/2 though I think that's still a fair price/.
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You are right Djakadam was 6/1 after the scratching of Thislecrack; Djakadam and Cue Card were 10/1 (have bets as proof) at one time without Thistlecrack soon after they were beaten in their races.
I think now both are priced fairly given their prices in last year's Gold Cup and the present calibre of the other Irish contingent. It may look an open race however, I'd not be surprised if the winner wins handsomely similar to Don Cossack last year. I hope they all get their chance to prove who is the best next friday. |
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Spot on. For all the talk of outsiders, just like last year until CC fell, you'd not be surprised to see the front 3 in the market be the ones battling it out 3 out. I just have a funny feeling Native River is going to grind the victory out.
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Smad Place and Don Poli were smashed on last year.
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Djackadam was 14s str8 after Lexus.
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Djakadam was 16s on Sportsbook after the Lexus. They kindly let me have £5.23 each way at that very price.
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The drying ground will go against Djakadam, by Friday it could be borderline good ground which will give the race a different complexion. Of the 3 principals in the market I'd favour Native River but it wouldn't be at all surprising if none of those 3 won the race. More of That is the interesting one for me, he obviously has ability but his soundness can be questioned but at a decent price he will be my selection as they wouldn't be running him if he wasn't going without a chance.
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