Cheltenham Festival
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2017 gold cup you decide.
2017 gold cup you decide.
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Cue Card and Djakadam went into last years race in tip top form. Looks like they have both regressed this season so it won't take a top rated performance to win it this year. With that said NR looks the pick on form and with the conditions of the GC i could see him put in a career best run.
The ground might have been against Thistlecrack in the Cotswold but he still looked to be traveling like the winner until they jumped the last. That extra furlong definitely exposed his stamina limitations. So add another furlong plus his erratic jumping it'll be a hard slog for him. imo |
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at the risk of repeating myself, it won't be an extra furlong for Thistlecrack in the Gold Cup - only an extra 42 yards.
Assuming the Gold Cup is run over the advertised distance, unlike the Cotswold Chase. |
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Thanks ReaseHeath i wasn't aware of that. Was it widely documented?
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it's a shambles really, maeldun.
It was relatively widely reported but is poorly documented. If you just look at the headline results you will only see the advertised distance, you have to look into the detail to see that the distance of the race was increased by 192 yards. Why they can't document the results to reflect the true distance is beyond me. This obviously happens on a regular basis but when it's a key Gold Cup trial and the additional distance is as much as 192 yards, it matters. |
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in fairness, bha website does capture it in their results section:
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/race-info/fixtures/results/fixture-results/#!/2017/630 |
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Zen ...we get it, you're a Thistlecrack fanWink
Of course but i also backed Native River throughout last season and have opposed him this season, i can't give up now!  |
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The 4 miler will never leave me from last season, i really did think he had it all for the 4 miler, but to get outpaced, well.....i can't forget that.
I was on him quite heavily. It was a frustrating day. |
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Zen
don't let the past cloud your judgement for the future. |
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Thistlecrack is presently 2/1, and assuming Vautour is still around and heading for this race what price would Vautour be? Shorter or longer than 2/1?
Vautour can jump but was caught by Cue Card in the King George (KG); Thistlecrack did not jump as well in the Cotswold as he did in the KG but was also caught by a proven stayer up the Cheltenham hill. Of these two horses which would one back, Thistlecrack or Vautour? Personally, I'd back Vautour (4/1 last year) over Thistlecrack in the Gold Cup especially so if Thistlecrack is 2/1. |
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So what is your point? Thistle price is too short??
And why compare with a horse that connections thought would not stay well enough to win a Gold Cup??? |
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buddelia,
Yes, at 2/1 Thistlecrack is far too short as he needs everything to go right for him on race day ie ground, jumping and stamina (all three) - the ground he very possibly will get but the other two requirements, unlikely; I believe he would be prone to making the same mistakes he made in the Cotswold in the Gold Cup once again. The connections of Vautour are interested in winning only even if it means in a much less competitive and prestigious race - they are just too scare of defeat. I believe if Vautour was still around he'd be Gold Cup bound with/out Djakadam. |
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Well I think hes too short as well,but just did not really understand the point in going on about Vautour.
They seem obsessed with winning the Gold Cup,if Vautour had convinced them he would stay the trip he would have run in the Gold Cup and Djak would either have joined him or ran in the Ryanair. Anyway Vautour is sadly gone,not much point in this really. |
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I agree, Vautour is sadly history but I do have this inclination his connections could be rewarded (finally) in this race when they least deserve it.
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Thistlecrack will not now be any shorter than 2/1 on the day, in fact if your looking for anything bigger i would put my shirt on Baldys offering something like 3/1 or even 10/3 as one of his pushes at 10am on the Friday morning. Even 4 weeks out am pretty confident this will happen. Ok max bet is £100 with him and if your a bigger player or are restricted/closed down not much point but well worth waiting till the day now and taking chance this happens.
If like me you can get to 3 or 4 shops in the car within the half hour these offers last for and get on online, well sorted  It's what i plan on doing again this year as i do every year. Miss juicy antepost price, gone too short? Wait till the day where you then have the race conditions staring you in the face then look for the offers  |
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don't let the past cloud your judgement for the future.
Seeing Native River get outpaced over 4 miles at Cheltenham last year is a hard image to lose, especially when he was struggling to get away from 150 rated animals this season on g/s. He has been elevated to GC status due to his form on soft ground, his form on g/s is way short of GC class. |
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Completely agree Zen Master.
While NR's style has been impressive, his substance has not. Does anyone believe Le Mercurey would not be pulled up a long way from home in a Gold Cup? An irrelevant piece of form in my view. He can't be dismissed but, on all evidence so far, it would need to be a very weak Gold Cup for him to have the class to win. Perhaps it might be just that, but he's short enough for me. |
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le mercurey ran many clouds to pretty much the same distance before he beat thistlecrack,so looks like the top two in the market might struggle
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So what wins then if the top two in the market can't
 The record in the race of previous beaten horses is, well, for all to see so i can't have Djackadam/Cue Card winning, though they are sure to run well. In fact scrap what i was going to say, this years renewal is shaping up to be a similar one to that when Lord Windermere won. All them at the head of the market were much of a muchness, in other words easy to pick holes in, we all latched onto one or two and up popped the previous years RSA winner at 33/1  I know it was Blaklion, and it was a poor renewal, but wasn't we all saying the same about Lord Windermere as we are about Blaklion |
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I agree, along with the CH, the GC is absolutely wide open IMO.
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Don Cossack was a better horse than this lot including Thistlecrack; Djakadam finished behind him despite falling and cutting himself in his prep race before Cheltenham. Could this be Djakadam's year (3rd time lucky) considering the wretched luck his connections have had recently?
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I'm not a back to lay punter. If i was i'd say the 33/1 nrnb on BDM is worth taking on bfair sportsbook. Not even left in the ryanair.
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33/1 (nrnb) for BDM is an enterprising bet; he'll trade shorter towards race day especially if soft ground is anticipated, with Thistlecrack going the opposite way.
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Cue Card looking like regression aint happened yet.
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Far from it from that performance; he beat a horse rated 156 by an easy 15 lengths. Cue Card is reaching his prime.....in the Gold Cup next month, and he will atone for his mishap in the race last year!
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NEWS: Timico Gold Cup favourite Thistlecrack has been ruled of for the remainder of the season with a slight tendon tear.
This festival is testing new limits |
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Any other more of that fans out there ?
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Kevin Blake said he More of That was of interest at the Betfair Preview on Weds
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see minnela rocco thread ,horse has had more problems than linsey lohan but he has had a wind op since his last run apparantly and he has bwon a stayers a beating annie power a subsequent champion hurdle winner ,talent is their if he can come back to his best form plus spring ground has a fair chance imo,have backed him about a week ago around 33s good luck
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Funny that he's had the wind op after his last run because I've thought that he had been showing a lot more of his old sparkle in his last two runs.
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What you need is a 2nd season chaser chaser with not too many miles on the clock. Maybe winning a reputable G1 like the Feltham last year and running well in the KG.
If only I could find a horse to back at a nice price for this race, the search continues. Time for a cup of tea. |
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 Ive had a couple of bob on here,and will probably have a small e/w on the day. Form stands up with NR and Cue Card,albeit right handed though. Still there are worse at far shorter odds imo. |
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Does anyone know if Minella Rocco is an intended runner?
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Yes paterson. He is an intended runner at this moment in time.
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already had some of that ,maybe time for more of that !
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More of That is about as reliable as an 80's Rover imo - he's never been the same since his World Hurdle win - he was a very lightly raced 6 year old in such a big race, don't know if that has anything to do with it, but since then the wheels have come off. Apart from beating up novices in small runner fields, he's broke a blood vessel, been pulled up and beaten 20 lengths in his next two races.
He did show more promise last time out but 20/1 for the blue riband event wouldn't interest me, but good luck mate! |
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If you are looking for a flutter at a big price , what about Smad Place?
Look back at his Hennessy and you will find enough form there to give him a serious chance of winning. His form with the late Many Clouds can be interpreted to give him a great chance also. 50/1 NRNB might not be value but it is tempting. |
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Not for me but If he gets his ground he may well give you a run for your money.
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Smad Place will give you a run for your money as he'll probably bowl along in front... suspect he'll be cruised past 4/5 out however by a couple of these & fail to make the frame as per the previous two years imo...
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Funny horse in a way......you look at his best form hes right up there,his Hennessey run with Native River puts them very close at level weights.And he was very impressive when he won the Hennessey.
He has not got close in his efforts in the Gold Cup though,and he did have good ground last time. All in all maybe an e/w squeak if he gets decent ground and can get into a rhythm out in front. |
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More of that is winning the national
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