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2017 gold cup you decide.

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Replies: 220
By:
jedi sophie
When: 26 Dec 16 18:15
Bold statement that one! LOL
By:
jedi sophie
When: 26 Dec 16 18:28
About a stone better horse than Cue Card,regardless of ground,course,trip,beat it like a drum every time.Tizzard knew this,hence why the bold tactic from owners and himself.
well regarded and well deserved,best ive seen in a fair old while and up there with likes of Denman, kauto though still not at there level yet as no Gold cup.

Visually though as good a performance ive seen in a G1 for a long time!

a total machine of a horse.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 26 Dec 16 18:43
I wonder if they'll put him in the Grand National as well? Shocked

Connections don't seem to back off from anything.
By:
impossible123
When: 26 Dec 16 19:14
According to Tizzard Thistlecrack could run in the Cotswold at Cheltenham to gain more experience whilst Cue Card could head straight to the Gold Cup itself. I hope Cue Card is given a proper rest after today's exertion - he's earned it!

I hope no Grand National for Thistlecrack even after winning at least two Gold Cups excluding the Irish ones - he's too good to be risked.
By:
shockster
When: 27 Dec 16 20:15
Jedi Sophie - Bold statement and now Cue Card is Ante Post Fav for the Ryanair after Tizzard says today that they could go there. You heard it here first.

Surprised
By:
jedi sophie
When: 27 Dec 16 21:23
Shockster...so colin agrees with my ggod self then aye? He knows no chance against Thistlecrack. Not even thinking of opposing again. Stick by my BOLD statement 100 %.
Beat Cue Card hollow and would do so again in GC.
By:
jedi sophie
When: 27 Dec 16 21:23
good..
By:
stan246
When: 29 Dec 16 11:25
Coneygree now a doubt
By:
Jb23
When: 29 Dec 16 16:20
Coneygree - Made of wetabix & huge question mark
Don Cossack - Huge question mark
Cue Card - Already murmurs of the Ryan Air & finally over the hill?
Djakadam- Starting to look a tad exposed and don't really think 3m is his trip
Outlander- Personally can't have at all and wouldn't trust it as far as I can throw it
Valseur Lido- Huge stamina query for me

Probably the inner £5 punter coming out of me now. But with so many of question marks at the head of the market. Im growing increasingly attracted to the juice of the market.  3 stand out for me at a great each way price.

Blaklion (50-1). Relatively small stable & ownership. No contrasting views or ulterior motives- You will more than likely get a run for your dough at least! I know he's run like a crab this year but 3 from 7 at Cheltenham with 2 seconds stands out to me. RSA winners haven't fared too badly in recent year.
Killultagh Vic (50-1) - I have absolutely no idea what the state of play with this, so apologies if its been ruled out for the season or anything. But given the confidence behind it in the RSA and JLT last year, I can't believe its a 50-1 shot if it lines up. The Chronicles of punting Willie ante post though Grin

I feel physically dirty after that but Its not certainly not hard to imagine the head of the market cutting up with injuries and defections to other races
By:
impossible123
When: 29 Dec 16 17:06
I'd love to see Blaklion win as he is gutsy as shown in the RSA but I think very unlikely as he lacks potential and/or class to win the Gold Cup.

Killultagh Vic (KV) would not be back until the 2nd/half or latter part of the season, if so; this info was extracted and confirmed by one of the Mullins' in a Chapman fone-in after a caller stipulated KV would not run again this current season.

I think with the uncertainties surrounding Don Cossack and Coneygree, and should Thistlecrack have an off-day Djakadam and/or Cue Card could step-up to the plate. If so, no one would begrudge either the win given their contributions to this race in the past alone.

Native River is into 10/1 now, what an absurd, silly and skinny price? I'd have Cue Card, Djakadam and Carlingford Lough infront of him every time.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 29 Dec 16 18:51
Jb, you put 3 stand outs but only covered 2 of them?

I'm not really interested in having a bet just now but a couple of others of similar ilk - both at 50/1.

Minella Rocco - beat Native River off levels at last season's festival despite arriving there with pretty underwhelming form credentials as a novice chaser so I would n't be overly worried about his efforts thus far this season

Many Clouds - was in the process of beating Minella Rocco pointless at Aintree giving him 5lbs when MR fell at the last. His jumping performances at Aintree earlier this month and at Kelso last season were amongst the best I can recall seeing from any horse in recent years. Despite the fact he is rising 10yo he still seems to be improving following his well documented breathing operation in the summer. I actually would be interested in backing him if I thought connections were going to take the Gold Cup seriously but if he runs at all it will probably be a tune up for the Grand National - also there are only 3 weeks between the 2 races this year whereas there were 4 weeks when he ran in Gold Cup in 2015 before winning the National. If they targeted the Gold Cup, he'd have a great chance of placing at least for me.
By:
Howdi
When: 02 Jan 17 23:45
^^^ AND ME - wish his owners wouldnt see the national as the be all of everything
By:
duffy
When: 04 Jan 17 17:06
I agree with Minella Rocco, not bothered with the ins and outs of his form as he strikes you as an enigma (and a lazy one at that) that is really hard to fathom just what his level is, you hark back to McCoy stating that he was the horse he would miss riding, the disparity in price between he and Native River and hopefully a real strong pace bringing his abundant stamina into play...all things considered he is a decent 40/1 E/W shout.
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Jan 17 18:04
Minella Rocco and Native River have both progressed from last season however, I believe the former needs further than the Gold Cup trip to show his best.
By:
duffy
When: 04 Jan 17 18:26
Probably does tbh, but the price available takes it into account, it's looking more and likely that it will be a thin field and we know that long shots do get placed, he fits the bill nicely, you can deffo see him staying on past horses that have gotten into the race earlier and paid for it.
By:
wellchief
When: 04 Jan 17 19:02
Black Hercules has ran a couple of shockers this year, but 17f was always going to be way too short for him last time out.  The only option I see for him is up him in trip, so at 50/1 he'd be my outsider at the minute.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 04 Jan 17 22:06
I really like how Native River won the Hennessy and then the Welsh National, bodes well for this. As i've stated on the Thistlecrack thread i still think he is a big price even at 8s and went in again today. May not be up to beating the hot favourite but getting 2/1 a place is better than 4/5 the win imo.

As far as the Irish are concerned, Outlander may have improved, at 20s he needs another look, a change from what i wrote on that thread the other day but i have had another look and a read of a couple articles published since boxing day and i might come round to a small ew at 20/1 1/4. As for the others though i am not sure. I would have felt better about Djackadam if he got closer in the Lexus or won it. The fact he got shuffled back at a crucial part of the race and ran on again bodes very well but i am holding fire for now on that one.

Coneygree, str8 there if at all? Nay thanks

As for the rest, not sure. I have read the posts and think use are clutching at straws. Minella Rocco surely goes for a handicap? If rocking up in this however, 50/1 might not be a bad shout as surely the outsider will be no bigger than 25s on the day depending of course on what runs (as some too rich to be true owner might run a no hoper) So at least your getting 50% value.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 04 Jan 17 23:49
It's just lazy thinking to suggest Minella Rocco 'surely goes for a handicap' - presumably because of his connections.

As stated above, he needs a trip so the only handicap he could conceivably go for is the 3m 1f Grade 3 handicap on Day One - Minella Rocco currently rated 158 - in the last 5 years only one horse has run in that rated as high as 155 (with a claimer on board), a few have ran in it off 153.

He's only run in one handicap and ran a monster race in being beaten off 155 in the Grade 3 27f at Cheltenham in November.

The only handicap they'd be interested in would surely be the Grand National and with that, you'd want to see what weight he'd get and even then they might think he's a year too young.

Of course, they could run him a couple of times to try and get his rating down to run in the 3m 1f handicap over a distance which is probably too short for him but why would they do that?
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 05 Jan 17 08:15
Yes it is hard to see where this one could be competitive in the future am sure jonjo is scratching his head and may well have the Grand National in mind. Off 158 i'd hazard a guess at around the 11st-4ib - 11st 7ib area nbut again who knows with the enigma that is Phil Smith! The first race that sprang to mind for me was the midlands national, he'd be the classiest horse to compete in it but would be top weight and is usually ran in a bog anyways.

I'm not sure if you can run in it again but is there no chance he might rock up in the national hunt chase again and try to win it a 2nd time?
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 05 Jan 17 10:20
National Hunt Chase is for novices - so no.

Midlands National did cross my mind but agree he's surely to classy for that and would be wanting good ground. Irish National I suppose too but JPM will have a handful of Irish based horses for that.

All things being equal I still think it's most likely he runs in the Gold Cup with a prep in something like the Denman Chase assuming all is well.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 05 Jan 17 12:50
Many Clouds set to have a crack at Gold Cup


THISTLECRACK'S tour de force at Kempton on Boxing Day might have had bookmakers running for cover as they hastily revised their Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup markets, but one trainer refusing to run scared is Oliver Sherwood, who is not ruling stable star Many Clouds out of one or more clashes with jump racing's brightest star.

Sherwood was as impressed as anyone with Thistlecrack's poise and swagger in the King George, but that is not a reason to avoid the Gold Cup favourite, according to the Lambourn trainer, who said there was a "distinct possibility" the pair could meet not only in the BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase at the end of the month but also in the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup in March.

While the ultimate destination for Many Clouds is the Randox Health Grand National in April, his route there has yet to be finalised and Sherwood is seriously considering a Gold Cup challenge, especially as Many Clouds ran in the race before triumphing in the 2015 National.

"He'll certainly have an entry in the Gold Cup," said Sherwood. "At this stage I'm not going to be saying yea or nay, but the fact is he's going to have an entry.

"Who knows what the weather is going to do and the gap between Cheltenham and Aintree means you can run in both. I see that they mentioned the two races as a possibility for Don Poli, and it could be a distinct possibility. It worked for us two years ago."

The weather will dictate the next outing for Many Clouds, a general 50-1 chance for the Gold Cup and among the 16-1 market leaders for the National after an impressive success at Aintree a month ago. Sherwood's options include the Cotswold Chase on January 28, also the most likely next target for Thistlecrack.

Haydock's Peter Marsh Chase on Saturday fortnight or the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury on February 11 are the alternatives.

Sherwood added: "The first one to come up is the Haydock race but he'll not race up there if it's bottomless, of that I can assure you. So I'd think the Cotswold Chase or Denman would be favourite."

Of a possible early-year clash with Thistlecrack, he added: "Others might run scared of Thistlecrack and there might be three runners against him in the Cotswold.

"You should never be frightened of one horse, even though he's been very impressive."

Have just availed myself to some 65's with the eye of a decent trade later on in the month when he surely goes 25-30s Wink
By:
Desmond Orchard
When: 09 Jan 17 13:18
Coneygree being out robs the race of a big piece of it's intrigue. If anything was going to Thistlecrack out of his comfort zone, it's this fella. Best winning performance since Denman, fully justifying the decision to send him as a Novice and a reminder to all to strike while the iron is hot.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 09 Jan 17 18:08
Please forgive me for saying but perhaps the Bradstocks ruined the horse by pitching in at the deep end too soon? Or is it a case this horse has always been a fragile sort and so they felt the need to race him in the top race earlier than what would have been idealConfused
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 09 Jan 17 18:50
the bradstocks were wise to go for gold when they did    and strike while the iron is hot ,he may have won that years rsa  but history will show he is a gold cup winner and i am sure the owners wernt complaining .
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 09 Jan 17 19:32
True, one way to look at it. I can't say i wasn't on, but that's after timing, and no one likes anyone posting they have had a successful bet on here after the event do they Mischief
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 09 Jan 17 19:48
same with thistlecrack in the king george, and  easy to say after the event, and if coneygree or thistlecrack suffered a setback in the gold cup /king george i am sure there would have been plenty of "they should never have gone for it comments /tirades but given the fragility of nh horses and the setbacks that can occour, if i was lucky enough to own a quality horse i would make hay while the sun shines .
By:
shockster
When: 11 Jan 17 13:00
Unbelievable, Mullins enters every horse for every race, yet doesn't enter Black Hercules for the Gold Cup. Just Zabana left Ante Post for me.  We live in hope not expectation.
By:
wellchief
When: 21 Jan 17 15:47
20/1 NRNB is a fair price for Bristol de Mai - he's won a distance at Haydock in the past, so not getting carried away, but I was really taken by his performance.

He's only six, but he'll be in the mid to low 160's now, which puts him in the place potential category, and looks like a strong stayer.  Lots of exposed horses in the Gold Cup betting, so he is one of only a few who are young and improving.

Still needs to improve again, but outside of Thistlecrack you could throw a blanket over them.
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Jan 17 07:28
25 with Boyles last night Chief
He is an interesting one and wish I had spotted this before yesterday!!!
Race don't look very deep to me and this one could well improve to be a lively contender imo
By:
wellchief
When: 22 Jan 17 09:33
Hello Budd, long time no speak.  Hope all is well mate.

I'm kind of gutted I missed the boat too, but I did have a little on at 20's NRNB (missed the 25's).  Losing chases at Ayr, Carlisle and Newcastle wouldn't make any one back him for the Gold Cup, but I thought he looked a different animal yesterday.  It might be that he has a fondness for Haydock, but he looked like he could have went round again.

He'll most likely be about the sixth highest rated in the field after his won, but crucially I think there could be more to come.  Two of those likely to be rated higher are Cue Card and Many Clouds who are 11 and 10.

Although only six, he's quite a heavily raced 6yo, so has the experience imo.  Highly unlikely anything will get near Thistlecrack, but behind him, he's one of several who could be battling it out for the place money.
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Jan 17 09:50
All fine mate,nice to see some of the old names still on here.

Looks like BDM has been running over distances too short,and looks a different horse over further.
Could be anything over the Gold Cup distance,and worth a go at the prices imo.
Lets face it if we have NRiver at the price he is,then we can certainly go for a graded performer who is improving for a trip at twice the price!!
By:
twonky
When: 23 Jan 17 20:05
Whats happened to Blaklion? Surprised he's not been given a Pilar entry this weekend
By:
buddeliea
When: 26 Jan 17 12:45
Twonky
Just noticed Blaklion has an entry 18th Feb...Grand National trial at Haydock
By:
duffy
When: 26 Jan 17 15:09
Champagne West puts himself into the e/w picture.
By:
duffy
When: 26 Jan 17 15:11
If BDM is in the picture, then this one is, classier than BDM IMO.
By:
tony2914
When: 26 Jan 17 16:59
totally agree duffy, it was always held in the highest regard by hobbs, obviously things didnt work out there and lost all its confidence, however henry de brom has got it back on track and at the age of 9 its time to go for gold pls dnt faff around with the ryanair.
By:
shockster
When: 26 Jan 17 21:53
I agree re Champagne West. He's just won Thyestes easily off 154 and look how close Djakadam went after winning the same race off 145! Let's not forget Native River has won 2 hops of 155, neither as comfortable as today and he's 6/1 2nd Fav!!!! Champagne west is a fabulous EW bet.
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Jan 17 07:49
Not seen the race....how was his jumping?
By:
tony2914
When: 27 Jan 17 08:07
1 mistake 5 out, apart from that immaculate.
By:
shockster
When: 30 Jan 17 14:52
I've created a small table (below) of the horses I consider most likely to be taking their chance in the Gold Cup.  I've ranked it by OR.  Not sure if it will look OK when I "Post reply" but I'm sure you'll get the idea.  Quickly it shows PRICE, AGAINST OR.  The top 7 horses are covered by only 7lb according to the handicapper but there are massive price differences.

It may be some use to some of you and give you something to think about. Is the price wrong or is the handicapper?

Horse            OR    Price
Thistlecrack    171    2
Cue Card    170    8
Native River    168    5.5
Djakadam    168    8
Bristol De Mai    166    16
Champagne West    166    25
Outlander    164    12
Alary             162    66
Don Poli    161    25
Taquin De Seuil    161    66
Empire Of Dirt    160    40
Irish Cavalier    159    66
Road To Riches    159    66
Minello Rocco     158    25
Tea For Two    158    100
More Of That    157    66
Zabana            153    40
Sizing John    153    50
Blacklion    152    50
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