Cheltenham Festival
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04 Jan 16
13:34
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02 Apr 03
I've decided I'm going to make a significant move for this beast.
His overalls form looks absolutely top class. Unbeaten in two bumpers then a second at the Festival. Then four runs in Novice Hurdles with two wins and two seconds, only losing to two top class horses in Douvan and No More Heroes.
They then gave him a go at 3m to see if he stayed the trip and it looked a pretty certain no, even though he still ran a really good race.
This season he's now two from two over 2m and 2m2f in heavy ground and the JLT looks absolutely tailor made for him. I thought yesterday's looked a pretty decent race and despite a couple of errors he won very easily imo. He has proven he can handle Cheltenham, and can be at his peak in March.
I think things also look a little clearer with regards to targets in the novice chasing division, and when you look down the betting for the JLT, of the first seven, I'd say four will definitely not run. Douvan, L'Ami Serge, Vaniteux all look nailed on for the Arkle and More of That for the RSA (or GC if not!). So take this lot out, and there is very little to worry about. I can't see them wanting to take Douvan on in the Arkle and Wylie doesn't have many other options to worry about splitting runners, so everything points to this being the race. That will also Ruby can ride.
5/1 wouldn't normally scream massive value this far out, but I really could see him going off about 6/4 on the day. And if you take out those in the betting who look like not running, he should probably already be 3-1.
Any thoughts?
His overalls form looks absolutely top class. Unbeaten in two bumpers then a second at the Festival. Then four runs in Novice Hurdles with two wins and two seconds, only losing to two top class horses in Douvan and No More Heroes.
They then gave him a go at 3m to see if he stayed the trip and it looked a pretty certain no, even though he still ran a really good race.
This season he's now two from two over 2m and 2m2f in heavy ground and the JLT looks absolutely tailor made for him. I thought yesterday's looked a pretty decent race and despite a couple of errors he won very easily imo. He has proven he can handle Cheltenham, and can be at his peak in March.
I think things also look a little clearer with regards to targets in the novice chasing division, and when you look down the betting for the JLT, of the first seven, I'd say four will definitely not run. Douvan, L'Ami Serge, Vaniteux all look nailed on for the Arkle and More of That for the RSA (or GC if not!). So take this lot out, and there is very little to worry about. I can't see them wanting to take Douvan on in the Arkle and Wylie doesn't have many other options to worry about splitting runners, so everything points to this being the race. That will also Ruby can ride.
5/1 wouldn't normally scream massive value this far out, but I really could see him going off about 6/4 on the day. And if you take out those in the betting who look like not running, he should probably already be 3-1.
Any thoughts?
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Yeh, Killultagh Vic, backed him for the RSA but was concerned when the opened him up over 2 miles...he's a massive worry for you.
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The JLT is the right race for Shaneshill nevertheless there are several worthy opponents eg Killultagh Vic (its conqueror over 24f), Ttebbob, Sizing John, Tea For Two and possibly Vaniteux; if More Of That (MOT) does not fancy taking on No More Heroes in the RSA or race in the Gold Cup then this race will be his for the taking as MOT will cherish the uphill finish more than Shaneshill, and so will Killultagh Vic in my opinion; the current price is about right unless the majority of those horses I mentioned do not take part.
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CCM - I think he is a sound bet for this based on all we have seen this season but I have it in my mind Sizing John is going to be a really good Chaser and I reckon Henry deB has finally worked out he can't beat Douvan and aim Sizing John at this in which case I think he will be a real threat. By my reckoning Sizing John was close to be the second best 2m novice hurdler last season behind Douvan and if HdeB looks to avoid Douvan in the Ankle he will go very close in the JLT. Making sense ?
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Maybe I'm biased but I just think that Killultagh Vic is a better horse as the above poster says, he'll love the trip and hill and he travels really really well through his races, Shaneshill will need to cut out diving at the odd fence too.
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I wouldn't be worried about K Vic starting over 2 miles - Willie quite often does this with horses he likes if the opportunity is there. I think he will be an RSA horse as Shaneshill is very much their JLT animal. Sizing John might very well look to avoid Douvan and end up here but More Of That wont - he'll be in the RSA.
The JLT - like all these in between races - will consist of horses who can't beat Douvan over 2 miles and can't beat More Of That over 3 miles. |
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Outlander isn't too shabby and is 2/2 over fences; remember he was second fav for the Neptune last year. He looks like he's been campaigned like the JLT is his race and is a good ew price at 25's.
I've backed Garde la Victoire for the Arkle but it is really 50/50 which race he ends up in and I think he'd be a big threat to Shaneshill. Shaneshill does set the benchmark though and will be tough to beat. |
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Cheers for the replies lads. Agree Outlander isn't too shabby chief, but I thought he ran really poorly in the Neptune last year and that would have to be a worry. Might be the course, or maybe more likely he wants soft ground to show his best?
I think Killultagh Vic's best piece of form by some way, was his Punchestown win where he outstayed the likes of Thistlecrack and Shaneshill over 3m so would think he's an RSA horse myself. Obviously could be wrong, but considering WPM only really has Pont Alexandre for this race, and there are obvious question marks with him, I'd think that race would make more sense. I agree Sizing John might be likely for this... And whilst I respect him, I would strongly fancy Shaneshill to beat him. I was considering Vaniteux, but nothing I've seen from him suggests he wants further. And I don't think Nicky will mind having two horses to take on Douvan in the Arkle as they are for different owners. The way he got outstayed last time must give them a worry about getting 2m4f, especially when he's never really relished the hill. May also be wrong about MoT, but will be astounded if he goes for this. Garde la Victoire probably the biggest danger imp chief. So that being the case, I really think 5/1 is value. |
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See KV does have an entry in the Irish Arkle though which is interesting! He could be the only fly in the ointment.
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Just watched his win yesterday and he was driven right out against pretty ordinary horses - certainly not Cheotenham types. And while the horse he beat on his debut won next time that was only because a 33/1 shot fell when clear at the last.
His Cheltenham record is very good and I think he deserves to be near the head of the market but can't say 5/1 is enticing enough for me with 10 weeks to go and he'll have to do something very special next time to be a 6/4 shot on the day of the JLT. |
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whatever Shaneshill does on winter ground is a bonus, he is a good ground horse. The danger to most of Mullins horses is another mullins horse and hopefully KV goes somewhere else.
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Almost the forgotten horse now!
Can't believe how the hype is all around Killultagh Vic after one win. |
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Yes the hype has shifted to KV but I'm not convinced that he'll beat Shaneshill whose overall form to me has been better. I accept we are now talking chasing and on last runs there is no doubt KV's jumping was superior. Shaneshill has rubbed shoulders with the best over the last two years wheras Killultagh won a handicap at the festival off 135. OK he beat Shaneshill subsequently at Punchestown over 3m - too far for Shaneshill.
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Yep I'm in that camp Arkle. But I'm not convinced KV's jumping is better myself.
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Ruby's choice of ride will be interesting.
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Unless KV has improved immeasurably, everything suggests they've always thought Shaneshill was the much better animal of the two.
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Yes very! This must be his toughest choice of the week.
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KV won the same H'cap that Sir Des Champ won before hosing up in the JLT.
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I prefer KV to Shaneshill after yesterday but there is one factor that needs to enter the equation - the proximity of the Power Gold Cup to Cheltenham this year given how early Easter is this year - only ten days or so after Cheltenham - I can see Willie Mullins putting one of his 2.5 novice chasers aside for this as there is no reality in running in both the JLT and the Powers absent an early exit at Cheltenham
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Interesting i think this will be a straight forward choice for Ruby.
Be amazed if he chose Shaneshill. Shaneshill does not have the potential KV has Imo. |
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Big statement that jasey, and don't see how anyone can come to that conclusion tbh. But it's an opinions games after all!
SM. There is only one Cheltenham though and I couldnt see connections of either horse thinking they would rather win a Powers Gold Cup than at the festival myself. |
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Just seen the other thread SM. Think you might be right with Outlander.
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Shaneshill out to 13/2 on here, and nothing really waiting to back
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The market is pretty dead for every horse bar the fav though chief. Not unduly worried yet
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Killultagh Vic is a good horse no doubt but he appears to have suddenly sprouted wings. He ran at Ascot in December 2014 and Lami Serge laughed at him.
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Anyone know if the Shaneshill entry in the Irish Arkle is just a precaution? Was hoping he'd go the 2m 5 grade 1 at Leopardstown on 6th Feb.
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Shaneshill was a very weak fav even before the gamble started on KV. Market was looking for one to latch on to and now they've found him. imo
Sir Gary - i'd say just a precaution in case problem with Douvan. GL |
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CCM - following on from our conversation on the Killultagh Vic thread about Shaneshill's jumping on debut I started to wonder if I had got it wrong and so decided to re-watch it last night.
At the halfway point I was very much thinking that I'd been overly critical originally - he actually to that point had jumped rather well. For me however, it all goes downhill quite fast from there. There weren't any serious errors but he got in close to almost every fence and was losing , rather than making, ground at each fence on his rivals. He won a shade cosily in the end but I do have reservations about his jumping and barring an accident, I'd be amazed if Ruby was on Shaneshill ahead of KV in the JLT. |
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You are a tougher man to please than me Tory! For a novice making his debut over fences... At Thurles where they are proper fences, I think you'd have to be pleased. He was 'careful' at a couple, but I think that's a good trait.
He may not beat KV, but I don't see it being his jumping that will cost him myself, even if you can never be sure of that with novices at such a tough track as Chelts. |
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Tell Us More pretty impressive there and always been highly thought of. Looks an ideal type for the JLT which is shaping up to be a really competitive affair!
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Entered over 2m at Warwick this weekend when the general expectation would have been that he would be kept for the Flogas/Moriarty over 2m 5f the following weekend - makes me think that KV might be earmarked for that one
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Looks like Shaneshill will be chasing home Douvan in some form in Arkle. I'd be sick to think he won't run in the JTL but having backed him for the Neptune last year I'm resigned to similar faith this year. Shaneshill showed himself the real deal at Fairyhouse last year on descent ground over 2 and half mile. He went to Punchestown 11/8 fav where Ruby chose him over KV and was going equally well as KV at JLT distance before been outstayed. Now I'm not expecting ruby to ride anything other than KV but I am hoping he doesn't use his selfish outlook and convince connections to run Shaneshill in an Arkle where he knows he won't beat Douvan. It would kill scooby choose wrongly in JLT. My wish let the two run and may Shaneshill win. I saying that believing Shanes wont run in JLT. Stand up Mr Wylie and run your horse over his best distance with his best chance of winning at Cheltenham.
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BaN
Your worrying about nothing and I'm not sure why, no way he goes arkle. And if your reasoning is because he's entered over 2 miles on Saturday. Your reading way too much into it. |
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If Shaneshill runs in the Arkle with its current jumping ability instead of the JLT after receiving a 'spanking' from Douvan in the Supreme last year the backers of Shaneshill for the JLT have every right to demand their wager back from Messrs Wylie and Mullins; the only way Shaneshill can beat Douvan over jumps is if Douvan falls but the likes of Ar Mad, Vaniteux and L'Ami Serge will not make it easy for Shaneshill either.
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This is from another poster on this thread:
"the proximity of the Power Gold Cup to Cheltenham this year given how early Easter is this year - only ten days or so after Cheltenham - I can see Willie Mullins putting one of his 2.5 novice chasers aside for this as there is no reality in running in both the JLT and the Powers absent an early exit at Cheltenham" I hope he's wrong but it would make sense as Shaneshill has shown a real liking for Fairyhouse in the past. GL |
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Maelduin
It's an interesting option, but I'd be confident Shaneshill will run at Cheltenham. Its possible if Annie Power is sound to run Vroum Vroum Mag might run at Fairyhouse. Can't see her running in WH and AP is been aimed at Mares |
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Unfortunately VVM wouldn't qualify as it's a novice event.
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your right Maelduin sorry
Shaneshill has descent cheltenham form also a bumper 2nd and chasing the mighty Douvan home is no mean feat so it time to prove he's no back number and win JLT. Give him descent ground and he'll beat KV and co over that distance. |
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I'm with you and believe Shaneshill deserves to take his chance. It has nothing to do with the fact that, if he ran, it would help me keep a few bets in play. :)
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