Cheltenham Festival
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Shaneshill - JLT
Shaneshill - JLT
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I seem to be the only one. But I think he's got a decent shout on the rsa, huge price on all known form. Backed him on exchanges at 3 figure prices but wish I backed him ew at 33s nrnb too.
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FFS. I can't believe this. Not just saying it because of my bets but what the f*ck are they doing? The campaigning of these horse is beyond a joke.
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Indeed. Firstly, WPM indicated Shaneshill has the pace to be in the Arkle (16f) - as a sub for Douvan - and now in a 24f race when he was tanking at the 22f marker.
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I don't a stable / ownership in raving that would look at Shaneshill / Black Hercules and their for,book and decide that this is the best way to go for both horses.
A horse who didn't stay the only time he ran over 3m, and was then campaigned over 2m2f, 2m and 2m is upped to 3m for the first time over fences in the gruelling RSA and a horse who has proven he stays 3m very well, so much so was being talked about for the 4miler, drops back to 2m4f. if Shaneshill travels way but doesn't get home and Black Hercules gets tapped for toe but stays on late, then Wylie deserves to be p1ssed off. |
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Agreed, seems quite ridiculous that after getting beat over 2 miles at Doncaster he is now sent over 3 miles in what is always a really tough stamina test. With only a very small field likely in the Arkle he surely would go close for the places.
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Wylie also said Ivan grozny and solar impulse who also run for him at cheltenham will likely be selling platers next year and he won't own them. Said he wouldn't back either of them ew.
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This is the worst news I've had all season. Plenty of each way doubles down the pan at tasty prices. Decent wedge on the single down the pan. A very, very costly day
 Would be much easier to take if I could understand the logic. |
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Doesn't look a natural over fences and hard not to think that a mistake is probable in the 20 ish they jump in the RSA. If they are thinking he will stay 3 miles he should have reverted back to hurdles to have a go at the WH - actually a race where Mullins doesn't look like having a runner now!
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Having not backed Shaneshill in any race this don't bother me at all as far as punting goes.
As far as this decision(if indeed it is,don't trust them at all)is concerned.......what a joke!! Another to put on the ever growing list. Absolutely no proper reasoning behind Shaneshill in the RSA,and BH in the JLT with the campaigning of these two horses. If this does happen,I really hope for the owners sake they run well,I think possibly BH could,but Shaneshill in the RSA!!! |
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Just gone back over his form in case I missed something.
Not much more to add from Catch's comments really,just nothing there to suggest Shaneshill is an RSA horse. Only one run over hurdles at 3m and did not stay,and I imagine because of that campaigned at 2 - 2 and a half m since over fences. Don't jump that well either imo,which is why I have not backed him antepost(thank god!!) Very strange. |
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If Shaneshill definitely ends up in the RSA one can only infer Shaneshill is being "sacrificed" (again) just because connection do not want two of their horses running in the same race without 1st considering the merit and welfare of the horse - I hope Shaneshill runs well and come back sound no matter what. But one cannot get away from the lack of logic in the decision making process though.
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I can see where ccm is coming from completely but Only the results will determine if the decision is a bad one.
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I think that's fair Scooby - I have backed Shaneshill for the JLT and am really surprised that he is being asked to run over 3m in the RSA. But even though I suspect he is a non-stayer, it would be silly for me not to have a very small bet on him at a big price in the RSA. You would have to think (or at least you would like to think) there is more to this than connections simply splitting their horses up. Surely they wouldn't be running him in this if they didn't think he could stay?
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I think 'sacrificed' is exactly the right word. I think this all comes down to one thing and thats Ruby. He doesnt have a stand out candidate for the JLT, and I think he knows he has very little chance in the RSA against MoT and NMH. But I guess it does tell you that he thinks BH is the better animal and his best chance in this race. Maybe Shaneshill hasnt been working great either, but they probably think they can let him run in the RSA as they won't win that with either horse, and save the best of the two for the winnable race.
I've backed BH at 9-1 on the basis that its quite a big nod to this horse that they are willing to sacrifice Shaneshill for him. |
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this horse has been a tricky one to figure out for a while for me after running like a drain at doncaster i wondered what they may do with him...i'm still finding him hard to access betting wise but the day he beat the sizing horse i thought he was a tad disappointing for whatever reason...anyway i can see peoples disappointment he doesn't go jlt if indeed that is the case
this mullins has made it brutal for punters in recent years and trying to second guess him this year of all years is proving brutal to say the least...i have sat on the fence all season and am pleased as the torture is unbearable for punters |
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I understand certain horses having different targets, but this one is pushing it. I'd rather they went to Aintree than this.
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Remember Townsend saying that they just went too fast for Shaneshill at Donny. I know that was 2 miles, but perhaps they think he lacks the speed for the shorter distances nowadays? Black Hercules looked every inch a JLT horse at Warwick, didn't he? Jumped quick and got into a lovely rhythm. I reckon Ruby will jump off and try and put the others under pressure. If he can do that he should have enough stamina to get up the hill. If you believe that BH is their best chance in the JLT, you can understand Wylie agreeing to go RSA with Shaneshill.
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Not so long ago and prior to Shaneshill's disappointing run in England Shaneshill was talked (up) to be a creditable sub for Douvan in the Arkle (16f) if necessary (WPM stated), and the main reason Shaneshill was campaigned over 16f this season was because Shaneshill was outstayed by NMH and KV over 21f and 24f respectively.
The current decision is ludicrous in my eyes as a punter and National Hunt enthusiast; I only back WPM/RW/RR/GW horses at the outset but trade them continuously to get a free carry whenever possible, and probably offload/back again on race day, why? Their current policy is a 'graveyard' for your hard earned cash with little regards for horses or punters - the episode with KV after a very bad blunder and then ridden out to win was a classic example. |
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I thought BH looked every inch an RSA horse at Warwick myself. Stayed on exceptionally well considering it was 3m in Heavy Ground.
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seen someone else post that Wylie actually said this re Shaneshill:
SHANESHILL "as of 4pm today" will run in The RSA. "That could change by 4pm tomorrow" says Wylie. |
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Don't get yor hopes up ccm. He went on to talk about thinking he had a good chance in rsa after that. And talking about black hercules in the jlt saying that's where he will go but the is a question mark over whether he likes cheltenham
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he can say what he likes re shaneshill,the formbook says he cant win.
Personally think NMH Will take lengths out of him in the jumping. |
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The jumping is of course the big worry (along with the stamina now
 ), but the pick of his hurdling form puts him in the mix for sure, and he has a very fine Cheltenham record. I had been banking on him improving for the return to a Spring Festival on decent ground... |
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I personally think the form book says he could be bang there. In his fairy house and puchestown runs over hurdles.
No point debating it as we will soon see. |
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For ccm.
Newcastle via Muddy Silks No decision on YORKHILL or BELLSHILL destination yet says Graham Wylie. Supreme or Neptune. They will split of course. L'AMI SERGE goes JLT. Pipey apparently "desperate" to get DOCTOR HARPER into the Handicap on day one. Graham Wylie: "I'm not sure if NICHOLS CANYON has bottomed after his last 2 races but Willie says he's lively at home". Nicky Henderson said to be expecting a big run from HARGAM in the Champion Hurdle on good ground. Nigel Twiston-Davies yard are very confident about THE NEW ONE's chances. In best condition for years. Mares Race: can't see past VROUM VROUM MAG. BLACK HERCULES does go JLT. Four Miler- NATIVE RIVER in headgear on good ground. Good value 8/1 or more. NOBLE ENDEAVOUR well fancied for the 4-Miler. That's where he goes. Novices Handicap Chase fancies for day one: MCKINLEY and DOOMSDAY BOOK offered from the panel. FIVE IN A ROW offered by Danny Cook Jockey. "He'll be coming up the hill when others aren't..." Wylie: KATGARY 2nd in Fred Winter 2 years ago. Better ground he'll be a chance in the last on Tuesday. ALOOMOMO has bee raced over Hurdles to protect his mark. The Neptune: handicapper rates LONG DOG and thinks he's well worth a place. Rated 148 in Ireland but 158 Britain same as YANWORTH. BELLSHILL: 7f out he had nothing (in last defeat) Ruby Walsh told Wylie. Scoped badly. Fine and well at home now. Ready to go. RSA: at bigger prices VYTA DU ROC, say the panel @NewcastleRaces SHANESHILL "as of 4pm today" will run in The RSA. "That could change by 4pmtomorrow" says Wylie. Wylie: "If I had a free fiver each way I'd have GREAT FIELD in The Coral Cup". I know MIN is drifting in the market and the money is coming for YORKHILL but Wylie says Ruby Walsh rides MIN. I'll take the 5/2 MIN! FOXROCK the class act in The Cross Country. CANTLOW - "one to keep an eye on for the specialist Trainer (Enda Bolger)". Wylie bought a French 3yo who Mullins sees as a World Hurdle long term prospect. Goes Fred Winter. Bumper. AUGUSTA KATE.... Wylie's horse in the Masters syndicate colours owned with @antanddec and @alanshearer was planned for @Sandownpark Right... Last 2 days to be discussed next at @NewcastleRaces #PreviewNight #Cheltenham JLT... GARDE LA VICTOIRE could go here and by @dickyjohnson77 only ride in a Graded race this #Cheltenham #madness An observation from the tables: "some of Mullins horses don't go to the race that suits them best; they go where suits connections best". There's a question over whether BLACK HERCULES likes Cheltenham - Wylie. Pertemps: IF IN DOUBT mentioned a several times. LEAVE AT DAWN touted. Ryanair: the rumours and counter rumours and contradictions continue re VAUTOUR. Ricci says he won't. David Casey says no decision made!! VILLAGE VIC tipped each way by Danny Cook for the Ryanair. WORLD HURDLE: COLE HARDEN will make the running and THISTLECRACK only danger will be going after him too soon. MARTELLO TOWER and AUX PTITS SOINS offered as each way value. If going was soft look out for PRINCE OF SCARS #WorldHurdle Wylie says @PFNicholls is bullish about AUX PTITS SOINS #WorldHurdle David Pipe LA VATICANE need to be noted in The Plate. Has a penalty. If he gets in keep an eye on him. The Kim Muir... Money for OUR FATHER "from some very good judges..." The Kim Muir will be the race for SPLASH OF GINGE... Been geared for the race for some time. UPSWING tipped for The Kim Muir at a decent price. CAUSE OF CAUSES gets the usual mention.... #KimMuir David Casey of Mullins yard apparently says "She'll win at #Cheltenham and she'll win at Royal Ascot". LIMINI. APPLES JADE each way value in The Triumph Hurdle. ZUBAYR the main fancy. Wylie... I was the underbidder for ZUBAYR. Willie (Mullins) really wanted me to buy him. COUNTY HURDLE: CARDINAL WALTER "a big price" in a throw a dart race. Wylie on IVAN GROZNY... He won't be mine next year. He likes to run with the choke out and let everyone pass him. He'll end up sellinhurdle "Wherever ANNABELLE FLY turns up, back it. With lots of money". Tony Martins. Apparently Ruby Walsh says whatever he runs in he wins... "BARTERS HILL is the one is take on..." Albert Bartlett. Panel disagree and there's support for BARTERS HILL. UP FOR REVIEW will definitely run in The Albert Bartlett. SHANTOU VILLAGE could get a nice toe into the race. He could see BARTERS HILL for speed up the hill. Money steady for GANGSTER. Some decent bets from some reputable places for him. Foxhunter: the record of horses going #Cheltenham #Aintree #Punchestown isn't great. It's a negative for ON THE FRINGE. IT CAME TO PASS... Jim Culloty Trained. Good profile for The Foxhunters. MARTIN PIPE: DELL ARCA might be a realistic hope for Pond House to finally win it. Wylie offers another horse: BALLYALTON to go back over Hurdle. Martin Pipe hope. JETSTREAM JACK. Looks the type trying to get a mark.... If the race cuts up and he gets in keep him onside. Panel. Martin Pipe. NEXT SENSATION tipped for The Grand Annual. 2lb higher than last years win? Value. Wylie runs SOLAR IMPULSE. He's not excited. "Wouldn't back him each way". #SellingHurdle next season he says. Gold Cup talk.... "The best form for the Gold Cup is last years Gold Cup..." DJAKADAM. If it's a good gallop on good ground (SMAD PLACE to lead) could see DON POLI lazily left too far behind. The panel splits: DON POLI stamina and course and festival form. He beats what he needs to and does what he needs to. VAUTOUR won't get home vs VAUTOUR will get home. Debate rages on. Only time will tell... Wylie. In the CUE CARD camp. Of the Mullins menagerie Wylie goes DON POLI. CHARITY BETS... Danny Cook YANWORTH. THE YOUNG MASTER... Wylie THISTLECRACK |
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The only thing clear to me is that Wylie is insisting on running his horses @ Cheltenham and wants as many runners as possible in different races. A lesson on how not to approach the festival. imo.
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Cheers scoob. Yes I know Im clutching at straws a bit
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Ok pocket talking but the RSA is won by a real hardened type, a battler and a proper stayer!
Step forward Seeyouatmidnight/Vyta Du Roc 33/1 both  |
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If it is proper soft ground like some are saying, I just cannot see Shaneshill getting up the hill. I also think that'll be a blow to More of That too, his best runs have always come on good.
STS, I think it'll favour VDR too, but also NMH. If (and that's a big if) the word heavy is in any of the going descriptions in the few days building up, there could be a few last minute changes to shorter trips. |
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Yep so many RSA have been won by that type of horse STS, Shaneshill is as far from that type of horse you can get.
A trainer in my mind should know how to campaign a horse for an RSA, this horse has had far from the right campaign. It all smacks of Black Hercules,so what do we do with Shaneshill? Dangerous imo,and not a decision made in the horses interest,not at all. Lets hope the person or people behind the decision don't live to regret it. |
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I wouldn't be chucking away antepost tickets just yet. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if, when Tuesday arrives and the RSA entries are confirmed, the two horse have switched targets again. It's almost tempting to ignore all the news for the next few days and wait for the final entries. There's no way I have the patience to do that though unfortunately.
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Wylie has said that he sees the RSA chase as a very good prep for his next target....the King's Stand Stakes at Ascot, although after closer scrutiny to the race conditions, if it meant the horse have to carry a penalty from winning the RSA he may end up swerving the Ascot race and simply head straight to the Tour De France.!!
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Why on earth would they pay to leave him in the ARKLE???????????? Under exactly what circumstances would they run him when they have told us he doesn't have the pace for it??
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Just ignore all their shenanigans; they are putting their interests first before considering the merits and interests of their horses; the placing of Shaneshill was messed with last year in the Festival and might be again this year. If one is seriously considering to back their horses do it on the day, or not at all - they certainly are not punter friendly!
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Mullins on his website tonight 'Shaneshill likely to go for the JLT or possibly the RSA'. On BH 'Wouldn't last home over 4 miles. I am looking at bringing him back in trip for either the RSA or JLT but will discuss with Wylie nearer the time'. Maybe not cut and dried yet.
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That's old giggsta he diddnt update them all. He changed long dog and tell us more, plus a few others
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2nd in 3 consecutive festivals.
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Ran a mighty race, i personally thknk the step up in trip gave him much more time to get back into the race when he made a mistake, he travelled very well and he stayed well, but blaklion is a little terrier and dug very deep. I was screaming when shaneshill loomed up before he jumped the last lol, was all over him at 110.0, would of been a huge win, but you have to give blaklion credit for digging in deep
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Yeh, I backed him at 90 when they first mentioned the possible RSA switch, thought he would win at the last too.
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Yep,have to hold my hands up as one who did not think Shaneshill would be suited to the race.
Love Blaklion,what a jumper he is and some fighter. |