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Shaneshill rang a mighty of a race but was outstayed by Blaklion, a battler who gave his all as usual; when NMH jumped to the front two out most thought he was going to pull from the pack - MOT was weakening. When NMH didn't one could see NMH was not himself and this became more evident after jumping the last where he pecked slightly his left front leg was not right. I just hope NMH recovers to race again or retires.
The question is would Black Hercules have outstayed Blaklion given NMH and MOT both not right towards the end of the race? |
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Shaneshill has another engagement in the Growise Novice Chase over 25f at Puncheston on 26th Apr where he's 6/4 should he miss the Mildmay (25f) at Aintree next friday where he's 5/1. If the price is a guide to his next outing Punchestown would probably be his next engagement.
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I like Shaneshill, completely wrote him off for the RSA as I just thought he wouldn't come close to getting home but he made that theory out to be a load of tosh.
One reservation I have about backing him for Aintree is it seems to be that he saves his best for Cheltenham. You could argue his best three career runs have all been at the festival. I started to think they just train him for Cheltenham but looking at his form he has had two other noticeable wins, one at Punchestown in the bumper and one at Fairyhouse where he smashed Outlander, but they're both testing tracks too. His only run on a flat track was at Doncaster in january which is similar to Aintree. He ran like an absolute pig that day. That may have been down to an inadequate trip but he ran far worse than you could ever imagine. Maybe 25f on a flat track is just his bag but it's one thing to bear in mind. On the plus side he was close enough to Blaklion at Cheltenham to turn the tables at Aintree and I'd rather take Shaneshill at 5/1 than Blaklion at 5/2. Is Shaneshill definitely going to Aintree? |
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If it is 5/1 is too big re Shaneshill.
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One can dismiss Shaneshill's run at Doncaster in Jan behind Vaniteux when 'fav' - Up For Reviw ran a stinker too - WPM put it down to catching a bug during transit; Shaneshill (5 here) could be joined by Douvan in the manifesto Novice Chase (20f), according to the RP.
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Shaneshill was scratched in the Manifesto and Mildmay (both chases) but is now one of six declared to run in the Liverpool Hurdle against Thistlecrack on saturday, how bizarre is that? Only WPM could pull this off!
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Down to winning money to win the title, is going to finish 3rd at least. Gets more cash for finishing in the 3mile hurdle than the novice chase.
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Shaneshill once again is not in the final line-up for the Growise Novice Chase next tuesday at Punchestown despite being entered and was 'fav' with most bookies; it would not surprise me if he ended up running in the Champions Stayers Hurdle on thursday with Thistlecrack out.
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Shaneshill in the Stayers over 3 miles again - 4th time lucky perhaps despite was outstayed twice over the same distance here last year and at Cheltenham in the RSA Chase.
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At last Shaneshill is back over 20f hurdle tomorrow, the distance he was outstayed and narrowly beaten by No More Heroes in Ireland last year. He did not stay the RSA distance (24f), and is 9/4 tomorrow at Navan; I'm expecting a big run provided he is fit.
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He should WIN
Going for the CH ![]() |
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Do not think so, most likely Ryanair or JLT as he just does not have the pace as demonstrated by his run behind Douvan in the Supreme in 2015; no WH or Gold Cup either as he does not stay beyond 2m 6f.
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Only third today
Bit Willies are only starting NOW ![]() |
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He was tenderly ridden in today's 20f race but the winner had flown despite the horse finishing 2nd in the RSA (24f). I do not know if he has lost a bit of his juvenile pace running in distances between 18f and 24f, and I do not think he was lacking in fitness today either.
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He ran well for a season pipe opener.
Should of dusted off the cobwebs for when back over fences |
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Yeah I thought it was a decent enough start against two race fit horses, neither of whom are slouches.
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Did he not run in America or France during the National Hunt break?
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Ran in the American world hurdle Impossible123. I believe with Nichols Canyon. One was a narrow second from memory
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I think he's a live World Hurdle contender, and 20's is a good price - not that I'd back him because I'm really trying to reign in my anteposts this year (last year I would have taken that at this stage).
He will never win a Gold Cup with the extended 3m2f, I think the owner will have Black Hercules for the Ryanair, and he hasn't got the pace to drop back to 2m (over fences or hurdles), as was shown in the Supreme. For me, that only leaves the World Hurdle, although Wylie does have Nichols Canyon as a potential runner in that. NC would be Wylie's obvious Champion Hurdle horse though, considering he was only beaten 4.5 lengths last year. The World Hurdle is wide open, with no standout horse, so at 20's, I'm almost talking myself into it!! |
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jb23,
Thanks for the info, so unlikely fitness was to blame for his defeat at the weekend - pilot error perhaps. Black Hercules was the 'fav' for a 4m race at Cheltenham but ended up running in the JLT beating Bristol De Mai - I think he'll run in the Gold Cup. Regards Shaneshill, he was outstayed by No More Heroes over a 21f hurdle race, and beaten by Blaklion over 24f in the RSA, hence WH would be unlikely, I'd have thought - he could end up in the Ryanair. |
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Impossible. His run in the US was in May, almost 6 months ago. So I'd say it was very likely fitness was to blame.
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CCM
In May, how time flies! I think Shaneshill has been messed about by WPM (similarly, Bellshill) to accommodate RW and RR but I do hope he realises his potential next year. |
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I think Shaneshill gets 3m impossible, but I know we disagreed about this last year, so don't want to dig up old arguments!
Yes, he is 0 from 5 over 3m, but all of those were Grade 1's against tough opposition, so to me that indicates he may well not be good enough, rather than him not staying. After all, Mullins has ran him over 3 miles 5 times now, so if Willie has continued down the staying route that's good enough for me. Take out the freak that is Thistlecrack and he wins the Liverpool Stayers Hurdle convincingly, he was travelling like a dream when taking a tumble at the last in the Punchestown Stayers Hurdle and although I haven't seen the America race, to finish 1/4 of a length down after running at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown is one hell of a run (fourth G1 run in 2 months, plus the travel to America). Also, since the RSA, all four of his runs have been over hurdles, so I think a World Hurdle campaign could be on the cards, regardless of where Black Hercules goes - just a hunch. 20/1 is a fair price in my view considering the weakness of the division. |
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wellchief,
Agree to disagree, and not the 1st time eg Found - this is part and parcel of differing opinions in horse racing - a healthy scenario, may I hasten to add. But I shall be 'laying' him over any 3m races this season until he wins one. On the other hand, if he goes for the Ryanair I'd be a backer regardless of who his pilot is. |