Cheltenham Festival
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Shaneshill - JLT
Shaneshill - JLT
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Replies: 223
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No point taking that, he aint running.
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What you all going on about then??
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budd
Don't you think there has been any chat on here concerning horses chances for races that they aren't actually going to run in.? |
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L'Amie Serge 6/1 w/o Douvan lovely.
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Ignore me Duffy,got my wires crossed....sorry.
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Huge leap of faith on L'Ami Serge whatever race he runs in. Apparently nothing has come to light from last time, and he got beat by Violet Dancer, who fractured a leg during the race!
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no probs budd
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Chief your not telling me that Violets Dancer felt the pain during the race are you? I actually rate Violet and am happy to ignore the run. Can't be many runners for the Arkle and 6/1 EW LS seems very fair to me. With Douvan means probably pays down to 4th to give you every chance of at least getting your money back and a few quid extra.
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Was tongue in cheek mate.
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Reel me in.
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Mccoy just said more of that wins the jlt at the preview night
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Was that if he runs or was he saying he does run?
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He tipped see you at midnight ew in the rsa. Take that as you want
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MOT has to run 1st before he can win the JLT; if so, the price of NMH in the RSA will contract even further than the current 11/4.
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Steadily drifting in jlt market over last few days has there been anything said I not seen?
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Could it be the possible participation of Black Hercules (same ownership) and MOT that is reducing its likelihood of winning? if so, it could be saved for Aintree.
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Patrick Mullins was rather negative about his chances in the most recent Postcast about novice chasers. I get the impression that they were rather disappointed with his effort behind Vaniteux and don't think he jumps well enough. He's worth a go though Imo, given his preference for better ground and his liking of Cheltenham.
I've backed him antepost for this, so I'm biased, but rerouting Black Hercules here doesn't fill me with confidence. |
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Agreed (and I also have a vested interest) you would the think that two and a half miles instead of two plus better ground would give an improved performance, he hasn't suddenly become a bad horse after finishing second at the last two festivals. Also surely the wrong race for BH anyway.
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RR confirmed at the Betbright Preview tonight that Ruby will ride Pomt Alex in the RSA, so presumably Black Hercules will be heading to the JLT now. How canWylie agree to that and run these two against each other? Unless Shaneshill is being kept at him? All seems bizarre to me.
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Sorry he didn't confirm Ruby will ride, just that PA goes for the RSA.
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going to say seemed a weird choice of ride to me
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Outlander wins JLT
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If Ricci is correct then one could assume MOT will stay in the RSA to allow an easier passage for BH and possibly Shaneshill unless Shaneshill is being kept back for Aintree.
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There was talk of Shaneshill going for the RSA as well. I still think Black Hercules will go for the RSA though, with Shaneshill running in the JLT
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Garden LaVictoire wins this. Get your 10s now. Or 8/1 with skybet who refund stake as a free bet if it loses.
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Shaneshill just gets 21f, if running over 24f he'll be tanking with 2f to go just as he did against KV at Punchestown last year.
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Wylie has confirmed that Shaneshill and Black Hercules will be kept apart and WM will decide next week.
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If WPM chooses BH for the JLT (easier) then most likely Shaneshill will be kept back for Aintree as the latter does not stay more than 21f. Would it not be 'funny' if Hendo throws L'Ami Serge into the mix here?
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Few on here wont be happy if Lami goes JLT.
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No reason what so ever why shaneshill wouldn't get 3 miles over fences imo. Was just out stayed by Thistlecrack and kilultagh vic over hurdles, 2 absolute stayers at punchestown, plenty of nice horses behind. And at fairy house he cruised past outlander and snow falcoln. Much easier to stay 3 miles over fences, especially when most of the principle runners won't be on the pace.
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This must be the easiest decision of the week. Surely.
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If they still have faith in shaneshill he should go arkle or jlt. Maybe take the view he's a Cheltenham horse. Plus you'd have to say black hercules looks much more likely to get a good 3 miles. Just have to wait.
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Agree CCM but who knows with this outfit.
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I fancy Garde La Victoire for this if its good ground. Cannot see Shaneshill winning an RSA even on good ground especially against MOT and NMH. Cannot believe BH would finish out of the first 3 in the NH Chase so they must really fancy him for the JLT if he goes.
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I'm starting to come round to thinking that Black Hercules has a good chance in the JLT.
He's far from a slow horse, and travels well in his races, and he was very impressive over 20f when smashing Sambremont earlier this year, and he is a twice winner since. Just thinking back to his race against Definitely Red and he was travelling all over him, and probably had a lot in reserve, but he didn't forge clear at the end like I thought he would do. Whilst I have been looking at him with my 4 miler goggles on, when looking at it objectively, would you have looked ay any of his races at all this year and instantly thought "I think he needs upping in trip?". I always thought the 4 miler because the stable will want to split them, and he was clear favourite in that, but because he's been on the bridle for a large proportion of all his races, he's never once been outpaced at all this year. The worry for the JLT would be if we got fast ground over that sort of trip, but he did run well in the bumper on good. I just think a few of them at the top of the market are pretty weak. Garde Le Victoire is 3 from 3 over fences, but he looks a slow jumper to me, Bristol de Mai has improved all year but I doubt he'll have the class to win this, and I'm not a fan of 5yo chasers especially when they don't get the weight allowance. Outlander would be the biggest threat imo, looks a proper Giggi type chaser and G1 winner last time. I think this race would be between him and Black Hercules. I think the 10's is a good price on BH, but it's a big risk bet with the history of this stable. |
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Agreed.
Already on Outlander (antepost exchanges) And recently added black hercules 10s nrnb. (To cover my antepost rsa) I still think the 8s nrnb is over priced on this field. And almost certain he's going here with shaneshill rsa. Already put a decent bet on shaneshill for this but I'm glad I covered with the rsa a while back, as I could see his jumping improving when he has more time in a race. Outlander and black hercules against the field. Bristol de mais is the danger for me. I can't have three musketeers at all and mot looks pretty sure to go rsa. Garde le victoire will probably go here but I think he will find 1 or 2 too good for him for win purposes. Tell us more will be an interesting runner today, if he wins without ruby giving him a hard time it would be possible he re routes to join outlander here. Had a few quid at 25s nrnb. And expecting my money will be returned. But not beyond the realms of possibility he lines up. As this could be a confidence booster. |
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Surprising for me if Shaneshill lines up in the RSA,as a mate of mine said,he looks as far from your typical RSA winner you could get.
Would have thought the sensible thing would be either JLT or not bother,and BH go RSA. |
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Think the Mullins yard are clutching at straws a bit here - and needing to find Ruby a viable ride. That said, I agree that Black Hercules would seem better suited by this trip as I could never really see where they got the idea that 4 miles was a good plan. As Chief said he didn't exactly power away at Warwick. This would seem to be a great opportunity for Ruby to get out in front and try to get him into a rhythm. Whether he gets picked off later on is another matter, but if they really thought he was a possible 4 miler, he should stay on up the hill, so he should.
The race isn't exactly full of superstars either. I'm not a fan of BDM and Outlander would need to start the day before as he needs further to have a chance in a Festival race. I suppose the plans were rather blown when Shaneshill (who was very much the stable's big hope for this race) disappointed in England. I'm really surprised that Sizing John's connections seem to be favouring another dust up with Douvan over a really good chance in the JLT. Could be a very small field for both races. |
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Wylie confirmed Shaneshill goes for the RSA at the Newcastle preview tonight
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Poor Shaneshill, another kick in the teeth just like last year; if true Shaneshill is in the wrong race as it will not stay 24f as proven last year.
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