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Can't Catch Me
04 Jan 16 13:34
Date Joined: 02 Apr 03
| Topic/replies: 28,246 | Blogger: Can't Catch Me's blog
I've decided I'm going to make a significant move for this beast.

His overalls form looks absolutely top class. Unbeaten in two bumpers then a second at the Festival. Then four runs in Novice Hurdles with two wins and two seconds, only losing to two top class horses in Douvan and No More Heroes.

They then gave him a go at 3m to see if he stayed the trip and it looked a pretty certain no, even though he still ran a really good race.

This season he's now two from two over 2m and 2m2f in heavy ground and the JLT looks absolutely tailor made for him. I thought yesterday's looked a pretty decent race and despite a couple of errors he won very easily imo. He has proven he can handle Cheltenham, and can be at his peak in March.

I think things also look a little clearer with regards to targets in the novice chasing division, and when you look down the betting for the JLT, of the first seven, I'd say four will definitely not run. Douvan, L'Ami Serge, Vaniteux all look nailed on for the Arkle and More of That for the RSA (or GC if not!). So take this lot out, and there is very little to worry about. I can't see them wanting to take Douvan on in the Arkle and Wylie doesn't have many other options to worry about splitting runners, so everything points to this being the race. That will also Ruby can ride.

5/1 wouldn't normally scream massive value this far out, but I really could see him going off about 6/4 on the day. And if you take out those in the betting who look like not running, he should probably already be 3-1.

Any thoughts?
Pause Switch to Standard View Shaneshill - JLT
Show More
Report buddeliea February 25, 2016 7:13 PM GMT
Ignore me Duffy,got my wires crossed....sorry.
Report wellchief February 25, 2016 7:16 PM GMT
Huge leap of faith on L'Ami Serge whatever race he runs in.  Apparently nothing has come to light from last time, and he got beat by Violet Dancer, who fractured a leg during the race!
Report duffy February 25, 2016 7:18 PM GMT
no probs buddHappy
Report shockster February 25, 2016 7:24 PM GMT
Chief your not telling me that Violets Dancer felt the pain during the race are you?  I actually rate Violet and am happy to ignore the run.  Can't be many runners for the Arkle and 6/1 EW LS seems very fair to me. With Douvan means probably pays down to 4th to give you every chance of at least getting your money back and a few quid extra.
Report wellchief February 25, 2016 7:28 PM GMT
Was tongue in cheek mate.
Report shockster February 25, 2016 7:30 PM GMT
Reel me in. Blush
Report scooby91 February 25, 2016 9:14 PM GMT
Mccoy just said more of that wins the jlt at the preview night
Report buddeliea February 25, 2016 9:19 PM GMT
Was that if he runs or was he saying he does run?
Report scooby91 February 25, 2016 9:26 PM GMT
He tipped see you at midnight ew in the rsa. Take that as you want
Report impossible123 February 25, 2016 11:09 PM GMT
MOT has to run 1st before he can win the JLT; if so, the price of NMH in the RSA will contract even further than the current 11/4.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 3, 2016 9:35 AM GMT
Steadily drifting in jlt market over last few days has there been anything said I not seen?
Report impossible123 March 3, 2016 10:28 AM GMT
Could it be the possible participation of Black Hercules (same ownership) and MOT that is reducing its likelihood of winning? if so, it could be saved for Aintree.
Report ACStafford March 3, 2016 5:15 PM GMT
Patrick Mullins was rather negative about his chances in the most recent Postcast about novice chasers. I get the impression that they were rather disappointed with his effort behind Vaniteux and don't think he jumps well enough. He's worth a go though Imo, given his preference for better ground and his liking of Cheltenham.

I've backed him antepost for this, so I'm biased, but rerouting Black Hercules here doesn't fill me with confidence.
Report The RealDeal March 3, 2016 6:37 PM GMT
Agreed (and I also have a vested interest) you would the think that two and a half miles instead of two plus better ground would give an improved performance, he hasn't suddenly become a bad horse after finishing second at the last two festivals. Also surely the wrong race for BH anyway.
Report Can't Catch Me March 3, 2016 10:39 PM GMT
RR confirmed at the Betbright Preview tonight that Ruby will ride Pomt Alex in the RSA, so presumably Black Hercules will be heading to the JLT now. How canWylie agree to that and run these two against each other? Unless Shaneshill is being kept at him? All seems bizarre to me.
Report Can't Catch Me March 3, 2016 10:39 PM GMT
Sorry he didn't confirm Ruby will ride, just that PA goes for the RSA.
Report RBoyd86 March 3, 2016 10:42 PM GMT
going to say seemed a weird choice of ride to me
Report mrtopnotch March 3, 2016 10:54 PM GMT
Outlander wins JLT
Report impossible123 March 3, 2016 11:02 PM GMT
If Ricci is correct then one could assume MOT will stay in the RSA to allow an easier passage for BH and possibly Shaneshill unless Shaneshill is being kept back for Aintree.
Report dtamutants2 March 4, 2016 10:31 AM GMT
There was talk of Shaneshill going for the RSA as well. I still think Black Hercules will go for the RSA though, with Shaneshill running in the JLT
Report HunterThePunter March 4, 2016 10:51 AM GMT
Garden LaVictoire wins this. Get your 10s now. Or 8/1 with skybet who refund stake as a free bet if it loses.
Report impossible123 March 4, 2016 11:01 AM GMT
Shaneshill just gets 21f, if running over 24f he'll be tanking with 2f to go just as he did against KV at Punchestown last year.
Report shockster March 4, 2016 6:37 PM GMT
Wylie has confirmed that Shaneshill and Black Hercules will be kept apart and WM will decide next week.
Report impossible123 March 4, 2016 9:50 PM GMT
If WPM chooses BH for the JLT (easier) then most likely Shaneshill will be kept back for Aintree as the latter does not stay more than 21f. Would it not be 'funny' if Hendo throws L'Ami Serge into the mix here?
Report stevo1 March 4, 2016 9:57 PM GMT
Few on here wont be happy if Lami goes JLT.
Report scooby91 March 4, 2016 10:33 PM GMT
No reason what so ever why shaneshill wouldn't get 3 miles over fences imo. Was just out stayed by Thistlecrack and kilultagh vic over hurdles, 2 absolute stayers at punchestown, plenty of nice horses behind. And at fairy house he cruised past outlander and snow falcoln. Much easier to stay 3 miles over fences, especially when most of the principle runners won't be on the pace.
Report Can't Catch Me March 4, 2016 10:34 PM GMT
This must be the easiest decision of the week. Surely.
Report Graeme83 March 4, 2016 11:45 PM GMT
If they still have faith in shaneshill he should go arkle or jlt. Maybe take the view he's a Cheltenham horse.  Plus you'd have to say black hercules looks much more likely to get a good 3 miles. Just have to wait.
Report stevo1 March 4, 2016 11:57 PM GMT
Agree CCM but who knows with this outfit.
Report Giggsta March 5, 2016 7:54 AM GMT
I fancy Garde La Victoire for this if its good ground. Cannot see Shaneshill winning an RSA even on good ground especially against MOT and NMH. Cannot believe BH would finish out of the first 3 in the NH Chase so they must really fancy him for the JLT if he goes.
Report wellchief March 6, 2016 10:05 AM GMT
I'm starting to come round to thinking that Black Hercules has a good chance in the JLT.

He's far from a slow horse, and travels well in his races, and he was very impressive over 20f when smashing Sambremont earlier this year, and he is a twice winner since.  Just thinking back to his race against Definitely Red and he was travelling all over him, and probably had a lot in reserve, but he didn't forge clear at the end like I thought he would do.

Whilst I have been looking at him with my 4 miler goggles on, when looking at it objectively, would you have looked ay any of his races at all this year and instantly thought "I think he needs upping in trip?".  I always thought the 4 miler because the stable will want to split them, and he was clear favourite in that, but because he's been on the bridle for a large proportion of all his races, he's never once been outpaced at all this year.

The worry for the JLT would be if we got fast ground over that sort of trip, but he did run well in the bumper on good.

I just think a few of them at the top of the market are pretty weak. Garde Le Victoire is 3 from 3 over fences, but he looks a slow jumper to me, Bristol de Mai has improved all year but I doubt he'll have the class to win this, and I'm not a fan of 5yo chasers especially when they don't get the weight allowance.

Outlander would be the biggest threat imo, looks a proper Giggi type chaser and G1 winner last time.  I think this race would be between him and Black Hercules.  I think the 10's is a good price on BH, but it's a big risk bet with the history of this stable.
Report scooby91 March 6, 2016 12:19 PM GMT

Already on Outlander (antepost exchanges) 
And recently added black hercules 10s nrnb. (To cover my antepost rsa)
I still think the 8s nrnb is over priced on this field.
And almost certain he's going here with shaneshill rsa.
Already put a decent bet on shaneshill for this but I'm glad I covered with the rsa a while back, as I could see his jumping improving when he has more time in a race.

Outlander and black hercules against the field.
Bristol de mais is the danger for me.
I can't have three musketeers at all and mot looks pretty sure to go rsa.
Garde le victoire will probably go here but I think he will find 1 or 2 too good for him for win purposes.
Tell us more will be an interesting runner today, if he wins without ruby giving him a hard time it would be possible he re routes to join outlander here. Had a few quid at 25s nrnb. And expecting my money will be returned. But not beyond the realms of possibility he lines up. As this could be a confidence booster.
Report buddeliea March 6, 2016 4:54 PM GMT
Surprising for me if Shaneshill lines up in the RSA,as a mate of mine said,he looks as far from your typical RSA winner you could get.
Would have thought the sensible thing would be either JLT or not bother,and BH go RSA.
Report delsie777 March 6, 2016 5:29 PM GMT
Think the Mullins yard are clutching at straws a bit here - and needing to find Ruby a viable ride. That said, I agree that Black Hercules would seem better suited by this trip as I could never really see where they got the idea that 4 miles was a good plan. As Chief said he didn't exactly power away at Warwick. This would seem to be a great opportunity for Ruby to get out in front and try to get him into a rhythm. Whether he gets picked off later on is another matter, but if they really thought he was a possible 4 miler, he should stay on up the hill, so he should.

The race isn't exactly full of superstars either. I'm not a fan of BDM and Outlander would need to start the day before as he needs further to have a chance in a Festival race. I suppose the plans were rather blown when Shaneshill (who was very much the stable's big hope for this race) disappointed in England.

I'm really surprised that Sizing John's connections seem to be favouring another dust up with Douvan over a really good chance in the JLT. Could be a very small field for both races.
Report HunterThePunter March 8, 2016 9:45 PM GMT
Wylie confirmed Shaneshill goes for the RSA at the Newcastle preview tonight
Report impossible123 March 8, 2016 9:55 PM GMT
Poor Shaneshill, another kick in the teeth just like last year; if true Shaneshill is in the wrong race as it will not stay 24f as proven last year.
Report scooby91 March 8, 2016 10:00 PM GMT
I seem to be the only one. But I think he's got a decent shout on the rsa, huge price on all known form. Backed him on exchanges at 3 figure prices but wish I backed him ew at 33s nrnb too.
Report Can't Catch Me March 8, 2016 10:06 PM GMT
FFS. I can't believe this. Not just saying it because of my bets but what the f*ck are they doing? The campaigning of these horse is beyond a joke.
Report impossible123 March 8, 2016 10:11 PM GMT
Indeed. Firstly, WPM indicated Shaneshill has the pace to be in the Arkle (16f) - as a sub for Douvan - and now in a 24f race when he was tanking at the 22f marker.
Report Can't Catch Me March 8, 2016 10:15 PM GMT
I don't a stable / ownership in raving that would look at Shaneshill / Black Hercules and their for,book and decide that this is the best way to go for both horses.

A horse who didn't stay the only time he ran over 3m, and was then campaigned over 2m2f, 2m and 2m is upped to 3m for the first time over fences in the gruelling RSA and a horse who has proven he stays 3m very well, so much so was being talked about for the 4miler, drops back to 2m4f.

if Shaneshill travels way but doesn't get home and Black Hercules gets tapped for toe but stays on late, then Wylie deserves to be p1ssed off.
Report Giggsta March 8, 2016 10:17 PM GMT
Agreed, seems quite ridiculous that after getting beat over 2 miles at Doncaster he is now sent over 3 miles in what is always a really tough stamina test. With only a very small field likely in the Arkle he surely would go close for the places.
Report scooby91 March 8, 2016 10:20 PM GMT
Wylie also said Ivan grozny and solar impulse who also run for him at cheltenham will likely be selling platers next year and he won't own them. Said he wouldn't back either of them ew.
Report Can't Catch Me March 8, 2016 10:22 PM GMT
This is the worst news I've had all season. Plenty of each way doubles down the pan at tasty prices. Decent wedge on the single down the pan.  A very, very costly day Sad

Would be much easier to take if I could understand the logic.
Report Giggsta March 8, 2016 10:38 PM GMT
Doesn't look a natural over fences and hard not to think that a mistake is probable in the 20 ish they jump in the RSA. If they are thinking he will stay 3 miles he should have reverted back to hurdles to have a go at the WH - actually a race where Mullins doesn't look like having a runner now!
Report buddeliea March 9, 2016 7:05 AM GMT
Having not backed Shaneshill in any race this don't bother me at all as far as punting goes.

As far as this decision(if indeed it is,don't trust them at all)is concerned.......what a joke!!
Another to put on the ever growing list.
Absolutely no proper reasoning behind Shaneshill in the RSA,and BH in the JLT with the campaigning of these two horses.
If this does happen,I really hope for the owners sake they run well,I think possibly BH could,but Shaneshill in the RSA!!!
Report buddeliea March 9, 2016 8:03 AM GMT
Just gone back over his form in case I missed something.
Not much more to add from Catch's comments really,just nothing there to suggest Shaneshill is an RSA horse.
Only one run over hurdles at 3m and did not stay,and I imagine because of that campaigned at 2 - 2 and a half m since over fences.
Don't jump that well either imo,which is why I have not backed him antepost(thank god!!)

Very strange.
Report impossible123 March 9, 2016 8:42 AM GMT
If Shaneshill definitely ends up in the RSA one can only infer Shaneshill is being "sacrificed" (again) just because connection do not want two of their horses running in the same race without 1st considering the merit and welfare  of the horse - I hope Shaneshill runs well and come back sound no matter what. But one cannot get away from the lack of logic in the decision making process though.
Report scooby91 March 9, 2016 8:56 AM GMT
I can see where ccm is coming from completely but Only the results will determine if the decision is a bad one.
Report tomdeane March 9, 2016 10:01 AM GMT
I think that's fair Scooby - I have backed Shaneshill for the JLT and am really surprised that he is being asked to run over 3m in the RSA. But even though I suspect he is a non-stayer, it would be silly for me not to have a very small bet on him at a big price in the RSA. You would have to think (or at least you would like to think) there is more to this than connections simply splitting their horses up. Surely they wouldn't be running him in this if they didn't think he could stay?
Report Can't Catch Me March 9, 2016 10:22 AM GMT
I think 'sacrificed' is exactly the right word. I think this all comes down to one thing and thats Ruby. He doesnt have a stand out candidate for the JLT, and I think he knows he has very little chance in the RSA against MoT and NMH. But I guess it does tell you that he thinks BH is the better animal and his best chance in this race. Maybe Shaneshill hasnt been working great either, but they probably think they can let him run in the RSA as they won't win that with either horse, and save the best of the two for the winnable race.

I've backed BH at 9-1 on the basis that its quite a big nod to this horse that they are willing to sacrifice Shaneshill for him.
Report harry callaghan March 9, 2016 10:23 AM GMT
this horse has been a tricky one to figure out for a while for me after running like a drain at doncaster i wondered what they may do with him...i'm still finding him hard to access betting wise but the day he beat the sizing horse i thought he was a tad disappointing for whatever reason...anyway i can see peoples disappointment he doesn't go jlt if indeed that is the case

this mullins has made it brutal for punters in recent years and trying to second guess him this year of all years is proving brutal to say the least...i have sat on the fence all season and am pleased as the torture is unbearable for punters
Report Graeme83 March 9, 2016 10:52 AM GMT
I understand certain horses having different targets, but this one is pushing it.  I'd rather they went to Aintree than this.
Report delsie777 March 9, 2016 10:55 AM GMT
Remember Townsend saying that they just went too fast for Shaneshill at Donny. I know that was 2 miles, but perhaps they think he lacks the speed for the shorter distances nowadays? Black Hercules looked every inch a JLT horse at Warwick, didn't he? Jumped quick and got into a lovely rhythm. I reckon Ruby will jump off and try and put the others under pressure. If he can do that he should have enough stamina to get up the hill. If you believe that BH is their best chance in the JLT, you can understand Wylie agreeing to go RSA with Shaneshill.
Report impossible123 March 9, 2016 10:57 AM GMT
Not so long ago and prior to Shaneshill's disappointing run in England Shaneshill was talked (up) to be a creditable sub for Douvan in the Arkle (16f) if necessary (WPM stated), and the main reason Shaneshill was campaigned over 16f this season was because Shaneshill was outstayed by NMH and KV over 21f and 24f respectively.

The current decision is ludicrous in my eyes as a punter and National Hunt enthusiast; I only back WPM/RW/RR/GW horses at the outset but trade them continuously to get a free carry whenever possible, and probably offload/back again on race day, why? Their current policy is a 'graveyard' for your hard earned cash with little regards for horses or punters - the episode with KV after a very bad blunder and then ridden out to win was a classic example.
Report Can't Catch Me March 9, 2016 11:00 AM GMT
I thought BH looked every inch an RSA horse at Warwick myself. Stayed on exceptionally well considering it was 3m in Heavy Ground.
Report Can't Catch Me March 9, 2016 11:31 AM GMT
seen someone else post that Wylie actually said this re Shaneshill:

SHANESHILL "as of 4pm today" will run in The RSA. "That could change by 4pm tomorrow" says Wylie.
Report scooby91 March 9, 2016 12:32 PM GMT
Don't get yor hopes up ccm. He went on to talk about thinking he had a good chance in rsa after that. And talking about black hercules in the jlt saying that's where he will go but the is a question mark over whether he likes cheltenham
Report buddeliea March 9, 2016 12:36 PM GMT
he can say what he likes re shaneshill,the formbook says he cant win.

Personally think NMH Will take lengths out of him in the jumping.
Report tomdeane March 9, 2016 12:48 PM GMT
The jumping is of course the big worry (along with the stamina now Cry), but the pick of his hurdling form puts him in the mix for sure, and he has a very fine Cheltenham record. I had been banking on him improving for the return to a Spring Festival on decent ground...
Report scooby91 March 9, 2016 12:50 PM GMT
I personally think the form book says he could be bang there. In his fairy house and puchestown runs over hurdles.
No point debating it as we will soon see.
Report scooby91 March 9, 2016 1:00 PM GMT
For ccm.

Newcastle via Muddy Silks

No decision on YORKHILL or BELLSHILL destination yet says Graham Wylie. Supreme or Neptune. They will split of course.
Pipey apparently "desperate" to get DOCTOR HARPER into the Handicap on day one.
Graham Wylie: "I'm not sure if NICHOLS CANYON has bottomed after his last 2 races but Willie says he's lively at home".
Nicky Henderson said to be expecting a big run from HARGAM in the Champion Hurdle on good ground.
Nigel Twiston-Davies yard are very confident about THE NEW ONE's chances. In best condition for years.
Mares Race: can't see past VROUM VROUM MAG.
Four Miler- NATIVE RIVER in headgear on good ground. Good value 8/1 or more.
NOBLE ENDEAVOUR well fancied for the 4-Miler. That's where he goes.
Novices Handicap Chase fancies for day one: MCKINLEY and DOOMSDAY BOOK offered from the panel.
FIVE IN A ROW offered by Danny Cook Jockey. "He'll be coming up the hill when others aren't..."
Wylie: KATGARY 2nd in Fred Winter 2 years ago. Better ground he'll be a chance in the last on Tuesday.
ALOOMOMO has bee raced over Hurdles to protect his mark.

The Neptune: handicapper rates LONG DOG and thinks he's well worth a place. Rated 148 in Ireland but 158 Britain same as YANWORTH.
BELLSHILL: 7f out he had nothing (in last defeat) Ruby Walsh told Wylie. Scoped badly. Fine and well at home now. Ready to go.
RSA: at bigger prices VYTA DU ROC, say the panel @NewcastleRaces
SHANESHILL "as of 4pm today" will run in The RSA. "That could change by 4pmtomorrow" says Wylie.
Wylie: "If I had a free fiver each way I'd have GREAT FIELD in The Coral Cup".
I know MIN is drifting in the market and the money is coming for YORKHILL but Wylie says Ruby Walsh rides MIN. I'll take the 5/2 MIN!
FOXROCK the class act in The Cross Country.
CANTLOW - "one to keep an eye on for the specialist Trainer (Enda Bolger)".
Wylie bought a French 3yo who Mullins sees as a World Hurdle long term prospect. Goes Fred Winter. 
Bumper. AUGUSTA KATE.... Wylie's horse in the Masters syndicate colours owned with @antanddec and @alanshearer was planned for @Sandownpark
Right... Last 2 days to be discussed next at @NewcastleRaces #PreviewNight #Cheltenham

JLT... GARDE LA VICTOIRE could go here and by @dickyjohnson77 only ride in a Graded race this #Cheltenham #madness
An observation from the tables: "some of Mullins horses don't go to the race that suits them best; they go where suits connections best".
There's a question over whether BLACK HERCULES likes Cheltenham - Wylie.
Pertemps: IF IN DOUBT mentioned a several times. LEAVE AT DAWN touted.
Ryanair: the rumours and counter rumours and contradictions continue re VAUTOUR. Ricci says he won't. David Casey says no decision made!!
VILLAGE VIC tipped each way by Danny Cook for the Ryanair.
WORLD HURDLE: COLE HARDEN will make the running and THISTLECRACK only danger will be going after him too soon.
MARTELLO TOWER and AUX PTITS SOINS offered as each way value. If going was soft look out for PRINCE OF SCARS #WorldHurdle
Wylie says @PFNicholls is bullish about AUX PTITS SOINS #WorldHurdle
David Pipe LA VATICANE need to be noted in The Plate. Has a penalty. If he gets in keep an eye on him.
The Kim Muir... Money for OUR FATHER "from some very good judges..."
The Kim Muir will be the race for SPLASH OF GINGE... Been geared for the race for some time.
UPSWING tipped for The Kim Muir at a decent price.
CAUSE OF CAUSES gets the usual mention.... #KimMuir
David Casey of Mullins yard apparently says "She'll win at #Cheltenham and she'll win at Royal Ascot". LIMINI.

APPLES JADE each way value in The Triumph Hurdle. ZUBAYR the main fancy.
Wylie... I was the underbidder for ZUBAYR. Willie (Mullins) really wanted me to buy him.
COUNTY HURDLE: CARDINAL WALTER "a big price" in a throw a dart race.
Wylie on IVAN GROZNY... He won't be mine next year. He likes to run with the choke out and let everyone pass him. He'll end up sellinhurdle
"Wherever ANNABELLE FLY turns up, back it. With lots of money". Tony Martins.
Apparently Ruby Walsh says whatever he runs in he wins... 
"BARTERS HILL is the one is take on..." Albert Bartlett.
Panel disagree and there's support for BARTERS HILL. UP FOR REVIEW will definitely run in The Albert Bartlett.
SHANTOU VILLAGE could get a nice toe into the race. He could see BARTERS HILL for speed up the hill.
Money steady for GANGSTER. Some decent bets from some reputable places for him.
Foxhunter: the record of horses going #Cheltenham #Aintree #Punchestown isn't great. It's a negative for ON THE FRINGE.
IT CAME TO PASS... Jim Culloty Trained. Good profile for The Foxhunters.
MARTIN PIPE: DELL ARCA might be a realistic hope for Pond House to finally win it.
Wylie offers another horse: BALLYALTON to go back over Hurdle. Martin Pipe hope.
JETSTREAM JACK. Looks the type trying to get a mark.... If the race cuts up and he gets in keep him onside. Panel. Martin Pipe.
NEXT SENSATION tipped for The Grand Annual. 2lb higher than last years win? Value.
Wylie runs SOLAR IMPULSE. He's not excited. "Wouldn't back him each way". #SellingHurdle next season he says.
Gold Cup talk....
"The best form for the Gold Cup is last years Gold Cup..." DJAKADAM.
If it's a good gallop on good ground (SMAD PLACE to lead) could see DON POLI lazily left too far behind.
The panel splits: DON POLI stamina and course and festival form. He beats what he needs to and does what he needs to.
VAUTOUR won't get home vs VAUTOUR will get home. Debate rages on. Only time will tell...
Wylie. In the CUE CARD camp. Of the Mullins menagerie Wylie goes DON POLI.

Danny Cook YANWORTH.
Report maelduin March 9, 2016 1:04 PM GMT
The only thing clear to me is that Wylie is insisting on running his horses @ Cheltenham and wants as many runners as possible in different races. A lesson on how not to approach the festival. imo.
Report Can't Catch Me March 9, 2016 1:09 PM GMT
Cheers scoob. Yes I know Im clutching at straws a bit Sad
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 9, 2016 1:10 PM GMT
Ok pocket talking but the RSA is won by a real hardened type, a battler and a proper stayer!

Step forward Seeyouatmidnight/Vyta Du Roc 33/1 both Cool
Report wellchief March 9, 2016 1:23 PM GMT
If it is proper soft ground like some are saying, I just cannot see Shaneshill getting up the hill.  I also think that'll be a blow to More of That too, his best runs have always come on good.

STS, I think it'll favour VDR too, but also NMH.

If (and that's a big if) the word heavy is in any of the going descriptions in the few days building up, there could be a few last minute changes to shorter trips.
Report buddeliea March 9, 2016 1:25 PM GMT
Yep so many RSA have been won by that type of horse STS, Shaneshill is as far from that type of horse you can get.
A trainer in my mind should know how to campaign a horse for an RSA, this horse has had far from the right campaign. It all smacks of Black Hercules,so what do we do with Shaneshill?
Dangerous imo,and not a decision made in the horses interest,not at all.
Lets hope the person or people behind the decision don't live to regret it.
Report ACStafford March 9, 2016 2:03 PM GMT
I wouldn't be chucking away antepost tickets just yet. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if, when Tuesday arrives and the RSA entries are confirmed, the two horse have switched targets again. It's almost tempting to ignore all the news for the next few days and wait for the final entries. There's no way I have the patience to do that though unfortunately.
Report duffy March 10, 2016 2:04 AM GMT
Wylie has said that he sees the RSA chase as a very good prep for his next target....the King's Stand Stakes at Ascot, although after closer scrutiny to the race conditions, if it meant the horse have to carry a penalty from winning the RSA he may end up swerving the Ascot race and simply head straight to the Tour De France.!!
Report shockster March 10, 2016 8:07 AM GMT
Why on earth would they pay to leave him in the ARKLE????????????  Under exactly what circumstances would they run him when they have told us he doesn't have the pace for it??
Report impossible123 March 10, 2016 10:37 AM GMT
Just ignore all their shenanigans; they are putting their interests first before considering the merits and interests of their horses; the placing of Shaneshill was messed with last year in the Festival and might be again this year. If one is seriously considering to back their horses do it on the day, or not at all - they certainly are not punter friendly!
Report Giggsta March 10, 2016 8:42 PM GMT
Mullins on his website tonight 'Shaneshill likely to go for the JLT or possibly the RSA'. On BH 'Wouldn't last home over 4 miles. I am looking at bringing him back in trip for either the RSA or JLT but will discuss with Wylie nearer the time'. Maybe not cut and dried yet.
Report scooby91 March 10, 2016 8:45 PM GMT
That's old giggsta he diddnt update them all. He changed long dog and tell us more, plus a few others
Report duffy March 17, 2016 12:16 AM GMT
2nd in 3 consecutive festivals.
Report scooby91 March 17, 2016 12:25 AM GMT
Ran a mighty race, i personally thknk the step up in trip gave him much more time to get back into the race when he made a mistake, he travelled very well and he stayed well, but blaklion is a little terrier and dug very deep. I was screaming when shaneshill loomed up before he jumped the last lol, was all over him at 110.0, would of been a huge win, but you have to give blaklion credit for digging  in deep
Report duffy March 17, 2016 12:29 AM GMT
Yeh, I backed him at 90 when they first mentioned the possible RSA switch, thought he would win at the last too.
Report buddeliea March 17, 2016 5:37 AM GMT
Yep,have to hold my hands up as one who did not think Shaneshill would be suited to the race.
Love Blaklion,what a jumper he is and some fighter.
Report impossible123 March 17, 2016 12:24 PM GMT
Shaneshill rang a mighty of a race but was outstayed by Blaklion, a battler who gave his all as usual; when NMH jumped to the front two out most thought he was going to pull from the pack - MOT was weakening. When NMH didn't one could see NMH was not himself and this became more evident after jumping the last where he pecked slightly his left front leg was not right. I just hope NMH recovers to race again or retires.

The question is would Black Hercules have outstayed Blaklion given NMH and MOT both not right towards the end of the race?
Report impossible123 March 31, 2016 10:23 AM BST
Shaneshill has another engagement in the Growise Novice Chase over 25f at Puncheston on 26th Apr where he's 6/4 should he miss the Mildmay (25f) at Aintree next friday where he's 5/1. If the price is a guide to his next outing Punchestown would probably be his next engagement.
Report Satrus_Froot March 31, 2016 1:35 PM BST
I like Shaneshill, completely wrote him off for the RSA as I just thought he wouldn't come close to getting home but he made that theory out to be a load of tosh.

One reservation I have about backing him for Aintree is it seems to be that he saves his best for Cheltenham. You could argue his best three career runs have all been at the festival. I started to think they just train him for Cheltenham but looking at his form he has had two other noticeable wins, one at Punchestown in the bumper and one at Fairyhouse where he smashed Outlander, but they're both testing tracks too.

His only run on a flat track was at Doncaster in january which is similar to Aintree. He ran like an absolute pig that day. That may have been down to an inadequate trip but he ran far worse than you could ever imagine.

Maybe 25f on a flat track is just his bag but it's one thing to bear in mind. On the plus side he was close enough to Blaklion at Cheltenham to turn the tables at Aintree and I'd rather take Shaneshill at 5/1 than Blaklion at 5/2.

Is Shaneshill definitely going to Aintree?
Report stevo1 April 2, 2016 6:01 AM BST
If it is 5/1 is too big re Shaneshill.
Report impossible123 April 2, 2016 10:43 AM BST
One can dismiss Shaneshill's run at Doncaster in Jan behind Vaniteux when 'fav' - Up For Reviw ran a stinker too - WPM put it down to catching a bug during transit; Shaneshill (5 here) could be joined by Douvan in the manifesto Novice Chase (20f), according to the RP.
Report impossible123 April 7, 2016 7:01 PM BST
Shaneshill was scratched in the Manifesto and Mildmay (both chases) but is now one of six declared to run in the Liverpool Hurdle against Thistlecrack on saturday, how bizarre is that? Only WPM could pull this off!
Report Ibrahima Sonko April 8, 2016 9:36 PM BST
Down to winning money to win the title, is going to finish 3rd at least. Gets more cash for finishing in the 3mile hurdle than the novice chase.
Report impossible123 April 24, 2016 4:05 PM BST
Shaneshill once again is not in the final line-up for the Growise Novice Chase next tuesday at Punchestown despite being entered and was 'fav' with most bookies; it would not surprise me if he ended up running in the Champions Stayers Hurdle on thursday with Thistlecrack out.
Report impossible123 April 28, 2016 11:58 AM BST
Shaneshill in the Stayers over 3 miles again - 4th time lucky perhaps despite was outstayed twice over the same distance here last year and at Cheltenham in the RSA Chase.
Report impossible123 November 12, 2016 2:45 PM GMT
At last Shaneshill is back over 20f hurdle tomorrow, the distance he was outstayed and narrowly beaten by No More Heroes in Ireland last year. He did not stay the RSA distance (24f), and is 9/4 tomorrow at Navan; I'm expecting a big run provided he is fit.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! November 12, 2016 3:49 PM GMT
He should WIN

Going for the CH

Report impossible123 November 12, 2016 4:14 PM GMT
Do not think so, most likely Ryanair or JLT as he just does not have the pace as demonstrated by his run behind Douvan in the Supreme in 2015; no WH or Gold Cup either as he does not stay beyond 2m 6f.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! November 13, 2016 7:37 PM GMT
Only third today
Bit Willies are only starting NOW

Report impossible123 November 14, 2016 7:51 PM GMT
He was tenderly ridden in today's 20f race but the winner had flown despite the horse finishing 2nd in the RSA (24f). I do not know if he has lost a bit of his juvenile pace running in distances between 18f and 24f, and I do not think he was lacking in fitness today either.
Report Snaith November 15, 2016 9:32 AM GMT
He ran well for a season pipe opener.
Should of dusted off the cobwebs for when back over fences
Report Can't Catch Me November 15, 2016 12:05 PM GMT
Yeah I thought it was a decent enough start against two race fit horses, neither of whom are slouches.
Report impossible123 November 15, 2016 4:46 PM GMT
Did he not run in America or France during the National Hunt break?
Report Jb23 November 15, 2016 5:22 PM GMT
Ran in the American world hurdle Impossible123. I believe with Nichols Canyon. One was a narrow second from memory
Report wellchief November 15, 2016 5:36 PM GMT
I think he's a live World Hurdle contender, and 20's is a good price - not that I'd back him because I'm really trying to reign in my anteposts this year (last year I would have taken that at this stage).

He will never win a Gold Cup with the extended 3m2f, I think the owner will have Black Hercules for the Ryanair, and he hasn't got the pace to drop back to 2m (over fences or hurdles), as was shown in the Supreme.

For me, that only leaves the World Hurdle, although Wylie does have Nichols Canyon as a potential runner in that.  NC would be Wylie's obvious Champion Hurdle horse though, considering he was only beaten 4.5 lengths last year.  The World Hurdle is wide open, with no standout horse, so at 20's, I'm almost talking myself into it!!
Report impossible123 November 15, 2016 7:52 PM GMT

Thanks for the info, so unlikely fitness was to blame for his defeat at the weekend - pilot error perhaps.

Black Hercules was the 'fav' for a 4m race at Cheltenham but ended up running in the JLT beating Bristol De Mai - I think he'll run in the Gold Cup. Regards Shaneshill, he was outstayed by No More Heroes over a 21f hurdle race, and beaten by Blaklion over 24f in the RSA, hence WH would be unlikely, I'd have thought - he could end up in the Ryanair.
Report Can't Catch Me November 15, 2016 8:01 PM GMT
Impossible. His run in the US was in May, almost 6 months ago. So I'd say it was very likely fitness was to blame.
Report impossible123 November 15, 2016 8:26 PM GMT
In May, how time flies!

I think Shaneshill has been messed about by WPM (similarly, Bellshill) to accommodate RW and RR but I do hope he realises his potential next year.
Report wellchief November 15, 2016 9:19 PM GMT
I think Shaneshill gets 3m impossible, but I know we disagreed about this last year, so don't want to dig up old arguments!

Yes, he is 0 from 5 over 3m, but all of those were Grade 1's against tough opposition, so to me that indicates he may well not be good enough, rather than him not staying.  After all, Mullins has ran him over 3 miles 5 times now, so if Willie has continued down the staying route that's good enough for me.

Take out the freak that is Thistlecrack and he wins the Liverpool Stayers Hurdle convincingly, he was travelling like a dream when taking a tumble at the last in the Punchestown Stayers Hurdle and although I haven't seen the America race, to finish 1/4 of a length down after running at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown is one hell of a run (fourth G1 run in 2 months, plus the travel to America).

Also, since the RSA, all four of his runs have been over hurdles, so I think a World Hurdle campaign could be on the cards, regardless of where Black Hercules goes - just a hunch.  20/1 is a fair price in my view considering the weakness of the division.
Report impossible123 November 16, 2016 1:25 PM GMT

Agree to disagree, and not the 1st time eg Found - this is part and parcel of differing opinions in horse racing - a healthy scenario, may I hasten to add. But I shall be 'laying' him over any 3m races this season until he wins one. On the other hand, if he goes for the Ryanair I'd be a backer regardless of who his pilot is.
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