Cheltenham Festival
Thistlecrack world hurdle
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backed this horse last year several times but I'm laying for world hurdle due to below
a) the tizzard stable form has been very good all season so far - this has happened on multiple occasions in past with other stables and then we find they blow out at festival b) the ground will be different from all other runs this season, although not too different from aintree last year, and not many produce their best form independent of conditions so very possible the improvement this year has been ground facilitated c) no specific reason to doubt his jumping but horses who run up a sequence very often make a mistake at the festival so could be due one d) not a fan of tom scu e) the ratings improvement has not come from beating the main challengers f) nicholls is more and more bullish on aux petits soins and i backed it last year as i do most of the saint des saints so fingers crossed but GL to all |
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Just on point f there mate does it surprise you that Sam has picked sapphire over him? And I'm with Cole harden myself
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The price is skinny I agree but the annihilation he gave to its competitors so far has been impressive and telling, 11/10 (nrnb) is justified, all things being equal.
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He's the one shortie that I am not going to consider trying to get beat. I think he's different class.
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i think STD had to go with the one with form in tbe book at the distance but i know which one i'll be backing in match bet..
yes fav has looked very good so far this term but even the good ones get beat, it's just a question of is it next time or not and for me there's enough factors in play to be a layer but for every layer theres a backer! |
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Thistlecrack is very straightforward so even Tom Scu can't get Thistlecrack beat. imo.
Aux Ptits Soins is very exciting but it's a massive ask, without a prep, given he's probably going to have to run to a high 160 rating to win it. Really looking forward to seeing him over fences next year. |
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Personally think APS might have to run to a bigger rating than that - Thistlecrack is 168 but there should be a Timeform p after that for me, not been remotely troubled in any of his wins this season - and so unfit at Newbury that his trainer nearly did n't run him.
Some of the others might improve for better ground, breathing op etc. but Thistlecrack might improve too - also seems to be going into the race off the back of a very smooth preparation which you can't say for all of his rivals. Still, it's a horse race and anything can happen within reason. |
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swiss
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one of them 'could be anything', is by my fav NH sire and is 14/16s and the other has had a great season and probably (?) peaked and is 11/10
i'm not hoping for any of the below to happen, only that there have been umpteen obvious winners heading into the festival who come unstuck for a variety of reasons and thistlecrack fits the bill will be here on thursday 17th to check back with you, win or lose |
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i agree it could happen just feel like its more "in hope" than actual real reasoning that people are taking the horse on with? I will be laying Annie power in the CH at this point and there is reasoning that can be backed up with facts.
There was this monster camping ground (not a monster) and then the cheltenham ? and he's basically just proven everything. Yea he could get beaten, but I'm not sure i see a fav at chelt with less question marks to his name, against a field that he has either slaughtered already or have huge ? marks against themselves. Anyway as you say this game is all about opinions and i look forward to talking to you on the 17th, from a personal view hopeful after thistlecrack has won by 10 lengths on the steel lol |
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get the feeling thistlecrack could be a GC horse next year, wouldn't surprise me if stories reg him thrashing cue card on gallops leaked out at some point or other
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Tizzard been asked about that, stated categorically that they don't work together, which makes absolute sense as you would n't want them risking leaving a race behind by taking each other on at home.
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According to Gordon Elliot, if Thistlecrack was trained by WPM he'd be odds-on; Thistlecrack is also 20/1 with the Tote for the 2017 Gold Cup if anyone is interested - no doubt this price will be much reduced if 'strolling' to a win in the WH at Cheltenham.
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monster, freak, force of nature, add your own superlatives here...
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WOW.
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The banker of the meeting goes in, what a horse. Wins as he likes
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That was MAJESTIC!!!
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well done backers, hope they keep him to hurdles..aux ptits soins will be some novice chaser..
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Goodness. That was very good.
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He won't be kept over hurdles, Tizzard has already said he's a gold cup horse and will win it as a novice next year
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Should be interesting to see Douvan and Thistlecrack , battle it out for the Gold Cup next year, if TC jumps really well.
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I m not saying he won't go for the gold cup, but once all the emotion and excitement from today's win has settled down a little. They've had a huge season with thistlecrack winning all the trials and the world hurdle itself and they've amassed a huge fortune, if they do go novice chasing then on to the Gold cup then fair play to them. But I wouldn't blame them what so ever if in 6 months time they decide to stay over hurdles and do it all over again next year.
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He's 8 though so they need to find out whether he is as good a chaser as he is over hurdles - it was different with Big Buck's because he'd already tried fences before running up a sequence in the World Hurdle.
Tizzard has also said when asked about Thistlecrack's future that his stable is predominantly a chasing stable. |
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If Thistlecrack takes to fences as well as hurdles then he is a force to be reckoned with come CGC 2017 and possibly KG 2016; the current generation of jumpers excluding Coneygree could be past their best for these two races with the exception of Vautour.
Anyway, that is the future but today's performance was absolutely AWESOME, and the winner was never in doubt! |
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the best of all the great performances we've seen so far. he looked like he could go around again & still
not break sweat. he seems to have no weak points and, as mentioned , if he jumps the big ones he would be unstoppable. |
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Yes breathtaking performance.
Any World Hurdle horses that became top draw? I can only think of a turkeys. |
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The way he took off in the final half furlong was like a sprinter, great performance.
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Best World Hurdle performance I have ever seen.
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Going over fences next according to Joe Tissard, son and assistant trainer to Colin Tissard - what a prospect!
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mega performance and i certainly needed it. was my banker of the meet and now sitting pretty for the week. Phew!
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agree @wellchief, shame that he goes chasing, it'll look a downgrade unless he wins the GC
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Timeform Timing Debrief shows that Thistlecrack covered the last three furlongs faster than Limini - the key difference being that he ran a mile further!
He's not been off the bridle since Punchestown last April, probably does n't even know that Scu's got a stick. That novice hurdle form with ADO and Blaklion at Aintree last Spring and with Killultagh Vic and Shaneshill at Punchestown could look as good as the Al Ferof/Sprinter/Cue Card Supreme form in a couple of year's time. Killultagh Vic must be some tool too, pity we did n't get to see him. |
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best world hurdle performance in a few years, probably better than big bucks best..now they've confirmed he's going chasing, look forward to clashes with aux ptits soins over fences
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If they are serious and happy that he can jump they should run him in a couple of novice races and then aim for the top at the age of 8. I want to see him run in 3 gold cups at least.
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Should have mentioned he carried 3lbs more than Limini too...
so if she can be targeted at a flat handicap at Ascot then... ...perhaps I am getting carried away but I honestly believe he'd have every chance of winning the Ascot Gold Cup never mind the Cheltenham one - it's not so far fetched when you think Rite Of Passage did it and they considered running Big Bucks' in it at one time (though not seriously). He likes Ascot so there would n't be any speculation about whether he handles the track  |
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National Hunt horse of the season and most impressive performer at this years Cheltenham festival. Can't wait to see how this fellow fares out as a chaser next season, serious engine.
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^^^ without doubt.
Got better with every run and campaigned brilliantly. As much as I love Big Bucks and Inglis Server, Thistlecrack's performance on Thursday was on another level. Just hope he can stay sound. |
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Right I'm stopping now, phone is doing my head in.
* Drever, not server! |