Cheltenham Festival
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On at 25/1 and very impressed with his run there. Only 5/2 now in places and looks like a new star in the staying hurdle division. All praise to colin tizzard and the owners who put his no ice chasing plans on hold until he found out just how good he was against the current crop of world hurdle horses.
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Very impressed by that performance. I've backed Kilcooley but Thistlecrack will take all the beating.
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Interesting that paddy power pushed Annie power and the rest of the mullins horses right out after the win by Thistlecrack too
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Statement: Bets — Open BetsAccount BalanceDate / TimeBet TypeLegSortEvent/SelectionResultStakeReference15 Dec 15 / 16:38Single1 To Win Any Race At The Cheltenham Festival – OutrightBarters Hill @ 10/1–£60.00O/ Sep 15 / 19:51Single1 17th Mar 2016 - World Hurdle – OutrightThistlecrack @ 25/1–£30.00O/
Only £30 on at 25/1 as i wasnt 100% if he would go novice chasing but very happy with that |
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I had £15 e/w at 25/1 with hills back in October thought it was the obvious value in the race. He looks like a monster and backed him today and the time before that. I cannot lie he's my favourite horse at the moment. Killultagh Vic must be worth a nibble in the RSA now even though I have backed at 20/1 it's worth another bite of the cherry at 14/1. I love ante post Cheltenham bets me!
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Backed kilultagh vic for rsa myself foolsgold at 24.0 down to 16s. was slightly worried about the possibility of the 4 miler but after starting at 2miles and running very well over a completely inadequate trip, id be very confident he's an rsa horse now and can't wait to see him step up in trip. I love the way he used shaneshill as a lead horse at punchestown and there were plenty of good horses behind him and Thistlecrack.
All the talk about NMH ands shaneshill maybe weren't right. I just think they got out stayed by out and out 3 mile stayers. Paddies cut kilultagh vic to 10s for rsa straight after his race. And that's worked pretty well for me using it as a guide. |
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wonder if they will keep hold of him
probably getting offered telephone numbers for him |
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My only reservation is will he handle Cheltenham. I have a personal suspicion he's a bit of a flack track bully however can't knock what he's done. If you're on a 25/1 ticket now- happy days! 5/2 or whatever laughable price it is now, offers no value at all given a few market principles are still yet to run! (Windsor Park, Martello Tower, Aux Ptit Soins)
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Better ground - Cole Harden to reverse the form. He'll be fitter and showed last March how much he loves that hill. Couldn't entertain backing him so far out - but if he's 10-1 on the day, he's value. I can't believe anyone will have a penny on Thistlecrack at 5-2! As jb says, Martello Tower and Aux Petit Soins still to appear.
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I'm on martello tower myself at 28.0 and windsor park 10/1 nrnb. But I think this fellers going to take all the beating. Thistlecrack isn't a soft ground horse by any means it was gd to soft good in places at aintree and only good to soft soft in places today.
Colin tizzard things he will improve for the better ground. And cheltenham is very very likely to be good to soft minimum anything less they will water. Good luck with Cole harden but I really can't see him turning the form round when Thistlecrack himself was by no means fully fit. I can see thistle crack only improving further and as it stands with paddies pushing Annie power and the rest of the mullins brigade right out in price after his win, I don't think be needs to improve to beat last year's world hurdle horses. |
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I think the PP reaction is more to do with them not having a clue who might go there, scoob. If Annie turned up Thistlecrack certainly wouldn't be 5-2.Don't get me wrong, good luck with your 25-1 - that's a knocking antepost eachway bet - but 5-2 in December? After winning at Ascot? Really?
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He's won the 2 best trials so far and a certain runner, travelled and cruised to victory in both I can deffinately see a reason why he's clear fav. Whether I'd back at 5/2 us another matter. he's the one to beat for sure.
No matter what anyone says I have no doubt in my mind that PP would not push Annie out to 12/1 A bigger price than the exchanges, unless they know it's a foregone conclusion that she won't run in the race. |
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Respect to you guys with 25-1, I was happy i took some 8-1 NRNB Skybet this morning...just thought for Tom Scu to jump off Dynaste he must be hot !
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Only got 12/1, i think he is a superstar. But i was more than happy to bet on him at newbury.
Cant remember the last top class world hurdle winner, maybe Big Bucks at his peak. world hurdlers have been pretty average for a long time, novices, 2nd season novices slotting in easily, only more of that promised more. Cole Harden is very average and WHisper is a spring horse or whenever the vets arrive. |
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tizzard says cleeve so cheltenham question may be answered
thou he may rethink when he discovers he will have to give weight all round |
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WHisper is a spring horse or whenever the vets arrive.
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I don't think you can overthink it. Reve De Sivola always puts up a performance in this race and Thistlecrack totally outclassed him. We don't have to bet. We can simply sit back and watch a new champ crowned if the price isn't amenable.
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Have to agree that Thistlecrack has been very impressive, but his price is very short in a wide open race.
Despite beating Cole Harden, if it's good ground at Cheltenham, I can't see past Cole Harden. He won as easily as he liked last year in his first year out of novice company and is currently only 6 (will be 7 at race time), so he is still open to further improvement. This race has a history of the same horse winning multiple times, so I'd have to stick with him at the minute. |
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Wide open ?, cant have that at all. If you think it is wide open then you dont think Thistlecrack is any good.
Everything about Cole Hardens form points to it being very weak, apart from one run in a world hurdle post a wind op his form is very suspect and if use SDR as a formline it has so many holes in it. |
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I personally think the only thing that could stop Thistlecrack is if windsor park steps up and has improved but you would have wanted to see him run in the Christmas hurdle over 3 miles and get atleast 2 runs into him over that distance.
Alpha des obeaux ran well falling behind Thistlecrack and will improve for the step up in trip on his last run behind arctic fire. And martello tower Imo is a very good out and out stayer who's hard to get past. But I fully expect Thistlecrack to come looming up before the last and his change of pace yo get the job done. |
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Yeah, it is definitely a wide open race.
You've got the Neptune winner and the Bartlett winner from last year, yet to show their hand, and possibly add Annie Power to the mix. You've got Cole Harden, the current champ, expected to improve a heap from his first run, and Whisper to improves for spring ground. Thistlecrack is unproven at Cheltenham as he was comfortably beaten in his only run there. Don't get me wrong, Thistlecrack has been impressive, and he should be fav, but 5/2 at this stage, when you've got two top novices from last year yet to run, and the current champ expected to improve, is not a price I would ever get involved with. It's hardly a cut and dry race by any means. |
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Thistlecrack has certainly been a revelation since stepping up to 3 miles. Two things making me hold back from filling my boots (1) ran terribly in one and only previous race at Cheltenham and (2) Martello Tower could also be very very special and need to see him at Christmas.
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wellchief - snap !
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You have mentioned 2 horses that Thistlecrack stuffed and 2 other novices who are unproven, im still struggling with the wide open comment.
No doubt Cole Harden & Whisper ran way below their best, but their is nothing out there that proves that. |
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Without repeating myself, at this stage I'd want something bombproof at 5/2 three months before the race and I don't think Thistlecrack is.
Wide open in the sense that under festival conditions, there are likely to be three previous festival winners near the head of the market come the off day. Yes, WP and MT need to show that they are main contenders, but I'd never take 5/2 before seeing those run first. If they run big races, then it completely opens up the race. If they get stuffed, and then Thistlecrack beats Cole Harden again in the Cleeve, then I'll hold my hands up, but with so many unknowns at the minute, we could be looking at a completely different outcome in March. |
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Agree about the price at the moment, not my sort of price 3 months away.
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Wide Open if Annie Power, Windsor Park, Martello Tower & Aux Ptits Soins turn up. Looks doubtful on at least 2 of those though.
Annie Power (with a run) everyday of the week. imo. |
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No chance Annie runs. And aux ptit soins is way over rated Imo. The coral cup against a bunch of handicappers off a low weight is one thing, Even IF he turned up in peak condition he can't win this off level weights surely.
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Annie Power could show up, scoob. She's made rapid progress after her setback and Willie is on record as saying she could go for 'something bigger' if he can get a prep race into her. And don't forget all the twtting about with VVM - keeps being entered for 2 mile hurdle races...
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I respect your opinion but no chance paddies would lay 12/1 if there was any chance of a run what so ever.
Vvm was under consideration for the world hurdle Imo. I hope she will run in the ryan air however. All down to vautour in the king george Imo. I hope vautour ryanair isn't a done deal even if he wins or goes close in the king george. |
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Two distinct issues. 5/2 isn't value but not necessarily because of what the others have done. Things can and do go wrong and just short of three months out that's plenty of time. Horses like Martello Tower are hard as nails but does it have the class? Highly doubtful unless the ground is bottomless. Windsor Park? Does he stay? We don't know. Annie can be outstayed by a stronger stayer although she does get 3 miles. Cole Harden was a decent winner last year but how can you get that performance yesterday out of your head?
I'm still hopeful Kilcooley can run a good race but I'm now holeful rather than reasonably confident. |
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Yeah, I'm on VVM for the Ryanair too - fingers crossed but there;s a lot of talk about the Mares I'm afraid. Don't buy into the PP thing to be fair. I think they take the pess these days. After all it was the all knowing Paddy who was 14-1 Min the day it hosed up, wasn't it? They were also biggest on Faugheen until they got filled in last week - now short as most others.
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Imo paddy is completely in the know.
Min 14/1. Of course they can afford to lay at 14s when they were the only company who diddnt price up min early and diddnt take a penny at anything above 14s. They need to build a book and that lasted 2 days yorkhill who Imo is supreme bound they haven't laid a penny over 12/1 either. They went 8/1 nicholls canyon since the summer. They've been top price nicholls canyon world hurdle all summer. Anything that is a standout price at paddies ever seems to run in the race. Same as vautour arkle last year. It happens to many times to be a coincidence. a very strange one for me was outlander all summer for the rsa being only 14/1. If he dosent run in the rsa which 80% of people think he won't, I will hold my hands up. |
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We should have a pint scoob, cos we don't agree about anything bud!
Yorkhill - Neptune for me Bellshill - AB for me Nichols Canyon - Price will only be a factor if Faugheen is or gets injured cos he won't ever be that fat again. Vautour - last year the JLT was a done deal from the moment UDS came on the scene. This year, as you have said in other threads, much will depend on the KG. If he trotts up and stuffs The Don he will go to the Gold Cup. If, God forbid, he gets beat, I don't think the Ryanair is a done deal in any case. However, if that happens, Ruby will be keen to go the Ryanair route because he won't want to choose between him and UDS in the QM. Don't underestimate Ruby's input. He will want the best chance of riding the winner of every race and he will influence the final destinations of these horses. And he and Willie will try to put us away time and again between now and March. Fair play tho scoob - you have your own opinions and, like me, you are prepared to back them up. Like it. |
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Haha that's what racing and punting is all about, everybody has there own opinions.
and like yourself I'm willing to put my money down. On the basis paddies were 8s and my interpretation of the form I went in large (for me) ew on NC at 20/1 that was my only ew bet of the festival, so for once I will agree for win purposes im not banking on it. I had also gone in large on faugheen at 6/4 and got on what I could at 5/2. Still if faugheen dosent have a clear round it's not beyond the realms of possibly NC won't be caught. I added a decent size ew bet on Arctic fire at 8/1 when skybet went nrnb. Bellshill id be almost certain neptune but I am on any race also. I'd say yorkhill will be impressive over 2 miles. If willie thought he'd be better of going back up to 2m5 then bellshill will go supreme. Imo very little chance either go bartlett. if I'm wrong I'll be the first to hold my hands up but I'd much rather back my own judgement. |
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I thought he was incredibly impressive yesterday. Unfortunately I'm not one of these sitting on a 25/1 voucher. I think 5/2 is short enough at this stage, but I wouldn't want to lay any bigger myself, as I suspect he could prove to just be far superior than the rest of the division.
Since he's been stepped up to 3 miles, he has been progressing nicely and has some very good form in each of those runs. I wouldn't be surprised if there was some opposition to him on the run up to the day though, so I suspect the 5/2 will be available in the morning unless he routs the field in the Cleeve. |
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a lot of 5/2 talk when you can get 3/1, then again the shorter price helps in some views.
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I can't personally think of anything else that will run in the cleave that he hasn't already beat comfortably and I can't have aux ptit soins coming close to beating him. There's nothing that's gone novice chasing that hasn't impressed over that discipline,to come back over hurdles either. Will be interesting to see the Christmas hurdle at leopardstown, id have liked to see arctic fire in there but looks unlikely now, and if windsor park is a world hurdle hope that I think he is, it's a very strange way of going about it from D weld.
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But the race is wide open
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i dislike the horse completely and I would never back him. but one horse I'd put in the mix is Irving. On his day he could go and win, hes also just as likely to be pulled up. Very frustrating horse that once in a season he looks a world beater then the next he looks like a dog. Hes not a horse I'd ever entertain backing ew, and the world hurdle may be a push but I could see him winning a big pot over 3 miles when it's least expected.
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