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Thistlecrack world hurdle

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Replies: 323
By:
Magic__Daps
When: 27 Jan 16 08:29
Morris said: "Alpha Des Obeaux won't be running in the Cleeve Hurdle. He's fine and is entered for the World Hurdle and we'll see how he is nearer the time."

Sounds a bit of an odd comment to me, if he's fine surely just say he will be going straight to Cheltenham.
By:
impossible123
When: 27 Jan 16 10:13
miltons sophie

Yes, no Cleeve Hurdle for Alpha Des Obeaux despite entered for the race according to its trainer.
By:
shockster
When: 27 Jan 16 10:43
EO,  Charlie Longsdon has said Kilcooley is fine, but couldn't get him ready in time for the Cleeve and still hopes to run in the World Hurdle.

He goes well fresh so chances still but hanging by a thread.
By:
charlieptl
When: 27 Jan 16 21:01
For those on a big price well done, but 9/4 is way too short for a horse that, prior to this season, has never stood out as sheer class.

Camping ground @ 10/1 all day.
By:
miltons sophie
When: 27 Jan 16 21:52
Magic - MM is a different species to any other trainer - cracks me up - hardest trainer of all to figure - he must be a hell of a poker player -  personally wouldnt waste a second of worry with him as he can tie you up in knots - he knows a good horse though and he has always loved this one.
By:
stevo1
When: 27 Jan 16 21:56
MM wouldnt be 1st time to state horse coming over but doesnt travel, but ADO pretty sure will be showing at Festival with big chance.
Not sure why it was entered this weekend,was never going to run after win in mud last week.
By:
Snookerpunter
When: 28 Jan 16 00:20
blackballed1  • January 22, 2016 10:57 AM GMT 


I would think in most cases they thrive in one more than another but I did see a video the other day of brave inca winning the champion hurdle (I backed him that day) and forgot how close War Of Attrition came to winning the champion and obviously he went on to win the gold cup which would have been some achievement to win both but to even come as close as he did was some effort! Can anyone think of any others?

He never ran in a CH.

Finished second to Inca in the Supreme.
By:
paulo47
When: 28 Jan 16 08:43
Obviously Night Nurse , 2x CH and a GC 2nd
By:
blackballed1
When: 28 Jan 16 13:05
Sorry snook my bad mixed them up! But even so not many run so close in the supreme and then win the gold cup so I think we can still include him.... Just about lol
By:
duffy
When: 28 Jan 16 13:57
I presume Best Mate has already been mentioned.
By:
duffy
When: 28 Jan 16 13:58
run so close in the CH you mean
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 28 Jan 16 22:37

Jan 23, 2016 -- 4:05PM, delsie777 wrote:


Thistlecrack    - Dec 19th Ascot 3m 97yds     Good to soft              6m 4.55sVroum Vroum Mag - Jan 23rd Ascot 2m 7f 118yds Soft heavy in places      6m 2.6s


Only just catching up with this - and not really sure what point you're making but my observations as follows:

Raceform gave Thistlecrack a speed figure 4 lengths better than VVM (going allowance built in) and Thistlecrack carried 4lbs more (not accounted for - though admittedly he'd have to give her 7lbs in World Hurdle). Vroum Vroum Mag jumped 11 hurdles and Thistlecrack jumped 12.

Personally not a fan of comparing times of horses at the same track on different days (on the same day fair enough) because of the variables of going, track configuration etc.

I'm not sure it matters too much anyway because Thistlecrack beat a horse rated 160, 8 lengths without coming off the bridle in such a manner that the second's shrewd trainer sent him back over fences for the first time in 5 years even though he can't jump because the competition in the staying hurdle division is too stiff!

VVM beat a 138 rated mare 3.5 lengths - albeit comfortably - I probably need to watch her race again to confirm how impressive she was.

VVM is rated 149 and Annie Power was rated 165 when beaten in the World Hurdle (I know it's not a handicap but it does give an indication of the sort of rating a horse needs to achieve to win it).

VVM is n't even certain to run in the race and yet is as short as 3/1 in places (NRNB admittedly) - to me, that's the worst price of any horse in any antepost festival market. Fortunately, I don't have to have a bet now but if you made me back one of the two, I'd back Thistlecrack all day long and twice on Sundays.

I think Thistlecrack could be a monster, sounds corny but my heart beats faster when he runs - I won't be backing him until on the day though because I reckon they'll be out to get him.

By:
Roger The Butler
When: 28 Jan 16 23:01
Thistlecrack probably the most interesting conundrum of the Festival at the moment for me.

On form he looks the winner. But he has had one run at Cheltenham and it was a shocker. It's quite possible he didn't take to the place, in which case he'll probably get turned over there again. But it's also quite possible the course was irrelevant and he is just a far more consistent, improved horse now.

We should know one way or the other after Saturday.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 28 Jan 16 23:09
yep, take the view that he was beaten too far last time he ran there for it to just be the track and probably linked to the fact that it was only 9 days after he won on heavy ground at Wincanton but he does need to prove that.

Conundrum is that if he does prove it his odds will contract and if he does n't he becomes a far less attractive proposition.

I'd still rather wait.
By:
the bloob
When: 30 Jan 16 20:26
think I may as well tear up my antepost betslip on Cole Harden after what I was today
By:
buddeliea
When: 30 Jan 16 21:17
Im not tearing mine up.
Let's see what happens on decent ground in March.......if we get decent ground!!
By:
blackballed1
When: 30 Jan 16 21:27
Same here although he was most impressive today and a worthy favourite! I'm keeping the faith on Cole to come on for the better ground the way he did last year. Should have probably done him eway right enough as think that's where he might end up 2nd or 3rd but he is definitely in with a shout but hard to beat the fav by the look it!
By:
Swardean
When: 30 Jan 16 21:37
Just posted the below on the main forum but just seen this and perhaps more relevant:

Thistlecrack looked v special. Was at Aintree when he dotted up in the spring but I didn't take the hint and didn't back him AP.

I have re-watched the racing again this evening and reviewed the form and am stating to question what he beat today. 

Camping ground - did not stay
Pitt Zig - failed chaser
Guitar Pete - 58 rated on the flat
Knockara Beau - 13 years old

Hmmmm... a motley crew indeed. 6/4 is pretty short and will look very short if Annie Power turned up. 

Would not lay but would not bet either.
By:
scooby91
When: 30 Jan 16 22:51
I'm on at 25s but if I can get 2/1 on the day I'll be all over it. Think that will be unlikely as i Can only see him shortening further. Imo as big a cert as faugheen in the champion.
By:
scooby91
When: 30 Jan 16 22:55
Swardean no point putting annie in your calculations as she simply does not run in the wh.
By:
trigger3
When: 30 Jan 16 22:56
I was slightly sceptical of the horse before today but I can't really see what is going to beat him after today. He has proven he handles the track and considering the prices of some of the Mullins shorties then 6/4 is still value imo.
By:
scooby91
When: 30 Jan 16 23:03
How people think Cole harden is just running for fun atm and then he's going to be a completely different horse on better ground in the wh is the one that I don't get the most. Even if he produced last year's performance, people think that's good enough to beat Thistlecrack?
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 30 Jan 16 23:44
In view of the fact that Camping Ground patently didn't stay Thistlecrack has as much chance now in the World Hurdle as he had pre race. The proximity of the third and fourth doesn't advertise the form. It's how he's doing it as much as what he is doing as I said when he beat Reve De Sivola. Granted the challengers falling away is what is causing his price to contract but he's getting plenty short enough.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 30 Jan 16 23:46
Stuck record of course but I return to my earlier comment. Not sure what Longsdon is doing with Kilcooley but that is one who made a very big impression on me at the Charlie Hall meeting. Interestingly his brother who Longsdon was very complimentary about almost sprang a major surprise against Barters Hill in the big novice race at Doncaster.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 31 Jan 16 00:02
I'd take issue slightly on two counts - though I'm not trying to overstate the actual form of the race - the proximity of the third and the fourth was only due to TS holding on to Thistlecrack until they approached the final hurdle - the commentator said as they approached the final hurdle that there were plenty in with a chance and then about 10 seconds later found himself saying words to the effect that it was just a matter of how far he wanted to win.

Secondly, he put to bed the lingering doubt that he might not act on the track.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 31 Jan 16 09:16
He beat one of the worst fields yesterday for a 3mile race in a long time,not his fault. The strength of his form is his twice thrashing of last years winner and the weakness of rivals, if CH gets close to him at the festival then we are looking at handicappers and i think Thistlecrack can improve again.

Still enjoying reading the posts about Thistlecrack not acting at cheltenham on his one run when ridden by an amateur.
By:
blackballed1
When: 31 Jan 16 09:25
I don't think anyone is saying Cole harden is running for fun! If you look at his form last year he was well beaten around Xmas time only to run much better in the spring. And us backers are taking the view he comes good that time of year and as last year's winner he deserves to be in with a shout! One thing I have learned through the last 10 years is that previous festival form goes for a fair bit as many a time seen the same old faces comes to life when upto then there form that season has looked none to clever! He could be beat coming to the last but that's the gamble and I'm happy to stick with mine for now but not saying I could have a saver on something else come the day! As think it looks a good race this year.
By:
scooby91
When: 31 Jan 16 10:17
Charlie Longsdon's star hurdler Kilcooley faces a race against time to be fit for the World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

The seven-year-old has not been seen in competitive action since running away with the West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby in late October.

Longsdon had hoped to have his charge back in action in this weekend's Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham, but he is not yet ready to make his return.

Longsdon said: "He was meant to go to the Cleeve Hurdle on Saturday but he has had a few problems.

"He had a haematoma on a point of his hip, which meant he missed the Long Walk, and then he pulled a muscle a few weeks ago.

"We have seven weeks to get him there (Cheltenham) and if we don't get any hiccups and get a clean run he will go, but the chances he makes it are 50-50

"If he gets to Cheltenham he is the forgotten horse in the race, even though he is a 25-1 shot.

"There is always Aintree, Punchestown and France if he doesn't get there."
By:
buddeliea
When: 31 Jan 16 10:23
Cole Harden is a completely different horse in the spring on decent ground..
Wonder how Thistle will fare against the champ on decent ground??
By:
buddeliea
When: 31 Jan 16 10:29
An awful lot of his form is on soft and heavy.
Anyone who thinks the Newbury form is a clear pointer to how these two fare against each other,need to rethink imo.
By:
scooby91
When: 31 Jan 16 10:33
Bud Thistlecrack and vvm will be all over him hard held on the bridle  2 out, and I expect nothing less than Thistlecrack to power away from vvm  up the hill.
Where Cole garden finishes I have no idea, but it won't be within 8 lengths of thistlecrack I'm certain of that.
By:
buddeliea
When: 31 Jan 16 10:36
we shall see,I think you are way out......unless it's soft ground.
By:
scooby91
When: 31 Jan 16 10:39
Thistlecrack isn't a soft ground horse, hes had no option but to run on soft ground in 2 of his races this season. The long walk was good to soft and he gave a decent field a mighty beating.
By:
buddeliea
When: 31 Jan 16 10:41
We could go on all day here.
Let's just see what happens on decent ground in March....if we get it!!
By:
scooby91
When: 31 Jan 16 10:41
And just to remind you whether that was the real form of Cole harden or not, Thistlecrack was gross unfit on his return and Colin tizzard said he would come on massively for the run.
By:
blackballed1
When: 31 Jan 16 10:54
We will just need to wait and see who wins on the day. But you very rarely see horses winning any of the big 4 races on the bridle especially the world hurdle it usually goes to the hard as nails grinders that can go at it a fair bit out! Look how many times big bucks looked ripe to be picked off from horses but never panned out even heard McCoy saying that yesterday. But all we can do now is wait and see... Well done to anyone who is on thistlecrack at big prices but he ain't no big bucks yet and even money is not for me in a decent looking renewal this year as the likes of Prince of scares for example are just one of the Irish that are in with a live shout. So like I said good on anyone who has a decent price but even money shot.... Not so sure this year
By:
buddeliea
When: 31 Jan 16 10:56
RDS was beaten 30 lengths last March,beaten much less in December.yes RDS loves Ascot but he has run well at Cheltenham as well in the past.
Not saying that points to what will happen in March,but it does say how much better CH is when conditions suit.
Also not saying Thistle is a soft ground horse,just that most of his good stuff has been on soft or worse.
I know CH loves decent ground,I don't know Thistle does.
Of course it may be that Thistle is simply a better horse,but I don't think it's a given,as you seem to do.

We shall find out in March.
By:
buddeliea
When: 31 Jan 16 10:57
oh yes black,Prince of Scars and Alpha des beaux are no back numbers.
By:
blackballed1
When: 31 Jan 16 11:14
Yeah buddie they 2 are not without a chance! I know gigginstown are going to throw everything they have that's in with a chance in the gold cup! But wonder if they will do they same with they 2 or keep one fresher for the other festivals!? As no doubt you will have heard many pundits etc say alpha was up going aswell as thistlecrack at Aintree last year! All ifs and buts right now but it is certainly looking a more deeper race than it has been for a few years! I wouldn't mind having a thistlecrack slip with 4's on it right now but not evens lol really looking forward to this race.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 31 Jan 16 11:48
Personally the best form Thistlecrack has shown was at aintree on good ground.
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