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What's that in my ears?!! Cheers chief.
Beginning to wonder whether they will need another race at the festival - 'The Paul Nicholls Failed Chasers World Hurdle' I've lost count of how many he's mentioned as possibles! Ptit Zig, Aux Petit Soins, Saphir De Rheu - he's even talking about Silviniaco Conti now! Perhaps Big Bucks will make a comeback? |
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Tidal Bay is probably champing at the bit to have a go at Thistlecrack too
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fancy Windsor park at 14s nrnb won the Neptune well and powered up the hill ,nicholls canyon has given the form a solid look ,should get the trip ,ticks a fair few boxes !
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Can't understand the Saphir Du Rheu angle in this race at all. On paper this looks to be every bit a at least as good a WH as last year, if not better, (depending on who turns up yet). But it's believable to see Cole Harden putting in a performance that's of a similar level as last year, and the new kids on the block have every chance of surpassing that. SDR just looks totally exposed over hurdles.
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I personally don't expect a repeat from Cole Harden this year. I know he's trained for one race, but I have been really disappointed with his runs this year.
Saphir was only 3 lengths behind him, and although bombing out last time, I'm hoping them fixing his wind will sort that. I wouldn't call him totally exposed, he's a solid 165 horse and only just turned 7, so room of improvement, and at 20/1 I think he's fantastic ew value. I'm not saying he'll reverse the form with Thistlecrack, but with Annie and unlikely runner, Camping Ground never running at the trip, Aux Ptits Soins not having run, Windsor Park never running at the distance and Vroum Vroum Mag only running against Mares, there are worse 20/1 shots imo |
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I think Cole Harden will run a very similar race myself, and have backed accordingly.
Whether that's good enough to win this year is open to debate. I hope it is good enough!! |
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A fair point, Ok I may feel he doesn't have enough about him to win this but at 20's there is some juice in his price if it's your thing. 5/1 a place is very reasonable.
I've not had a bet and nothing at the top of the market interests me at their current prices, so I find Windsor Park and Aux Ptits Soins two really interesting horses. I read the other day that Nicholls said Aux Ptits Soins will head straight to the festival, he won the Coral Cup having been 6 months fresh so that doesn't necessarily bother me but this is a big step up and you're banking on him to improve another stone from that run bare minimum, but at 6 and lightly raced he is open to it. He could turn out to be a donkey in a race likes this but I just love my festival form. Windsor Park only has to find 3 furlongs more. It was a terrible run at Christmas but he has plenty of excuses for that and much was never expected of him. At 14/1 he's worth a second look, ate the hill for breakfast in the Neptune. |
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Despite its many potential runners this is looking like a one horse race (Thistlecrack), betting wise anyway, but is it?
The likes of Camping Ground and Prince of Scars - two very good winners - seem to have been eclipsed by the 'overruns' eg SDR, Cold Harden and Windsor Park, and Vroum, Vroum, Mag (VVM), a horse that has always started long odds-on in Ireland but currently at a ridiculous prohibitive price of just 8/1 (7/1 with a run). |
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paul nicholls aiming silviniaco conte at the world hurdle apparently
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I got the impression from seeing his ATR interview that his main aim will be the Aintree Bowl and then Punchestown Gold Cup with a Grand Nationial campaign next year.
Rated 12lbs less now than in 2014, and if another couple of no shows in those two races, he could be around 160 next year, the same mark Many Clouds was last year. |
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it must be true chief it was an article by clod duval in the sun
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Don't swear on a public forum!!
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Sorry, does anyone know why the betting on this race is still suspended on the Exchange?
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Ahhhh if only Jezki wasn't ruled out for the season!
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entries announced tomorrow - actually today - thursday. Market will reopen after they're announced.
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Thanks 'delsie777' - good night!
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Windsor Park didn't run such a bad race at Christmas @SF. Just 10 l behind them at the turn and it seemed more that D Russell didn't wanted to give him a hard time, never asking any questions and eased him off completely in the final furlong. I have lots of accas on him for the WH, think he's a good horse but its still a surprise not to see him in the 19 Champion entries as Neptune horses do well in it.
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WP had a far from ideal prep though, so you'd hope they can get a run into him in February. His race over Christmas was a bit of a none event for him, so his last proper jumps race was effectively the Neptune.
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I've backed 3 so far for this. Camping Ground, Kilcooley (forgotten Horse) hope runs next week at Cheltenham and Matello Tower who runs this afternoon at Gowran. Weights are against him today giving 7lb to the field, but will still need to go close to have any chance come March. Looking forward to seeing the outcome.
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I like Camping Ground too, but I want to see him back up his last run with another good one first. It almost seemed like a "too good to be true" type run, but as it stands he is by far the biggest danger to Thistlecrack.
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I backed Camping Ground immediately after he won so got a nice price. It was the immediate impression, but you are right and now at the price I would def want to see another good run.
Kilcooley I still find the most interesting and way overpriced IMO. His OR 164 is only 4lb less than Thistlecrack and I think Aqalim is a fair yardstick to compare the 2. Trainer has targeted the Cleeve and World Hurdle and 25/1 looks very tasty to me. I think there are many many worse 25/1 shots. |
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WH market suspended not helpful for players hovering waiting to see if there is any sign of life from Ireland today!
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The trainer of Camping Ground has said he'd be a surprised if it did not stay 3 miles, and better ground should not be a problem as it has won on good ground on the flat.
No entry for Windsor Park. |
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Surprised no Windsor Park. Must be injured i guess.
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just said above that WP was suspect for missing from CH entries, guess now it makes sense if he picked up an injury.
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Nice win for Alpha Des Obeaux at Gowran & also a decent comeback from At Fishers Cross. Can't see Martello Bay winning the World Hurdle after that or Briar Hill.
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Briar Hill's run deffo looked like a stepping stone kind of run AFC was fine, I backed him at big prices e/w for Cheltenham taking a chance that he'd run well back there and he did but of course just missed a place, probably do the same again this time around.
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backed him last year
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ADO looked good trainer reckons improve at Cheltenham available from 7-10/1
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I was really happy with Martello there, blundered 3 out badly and again got tired on ground that don't suit, took 20s before the race, topping up at the over reacted 33s after! Did Alpha last week at 16s, won't be topping him up as got 7ib there from Martello!
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Well done all on 20/1 tickets ADO. Can't have MT reversing that now if he couldn't over xmas. MT supposedly able to handle that ground and wouldn't have got near ADO there off levels, never mind looking to march and better going. Little surprised to see AFC left at 40/1. Wouldn't be surprised to see his class take him into the frame with that run under his belt. I'd be on him before MT.
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Thought Martello still looked fat myself. I guess it's all about one day and I can't believe that's his ground whatever anyone says. I agree it wouldn't fill you with confidence if you'd backed him, but I wouldn't be laying 33's for sure.
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STS - I'd have thought MT actually had his ground today (form on soft, heaving and yielding)? Not having a go, just curious. Lot to like about the winner's performance I thought, even allowing for the error and conceding weight can't see MT reversing the form tbh.
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Surely Alpha Des Obeaux win today has franked Thistlecracks Aintree run ?
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I'm keeping the faith just about shockster. Kilcooley was running all over Rock On Ruby at any point from two miles onwards at Wetherby and ROR proved his well being next time at Ascot. That was a very good performance from Kilcooley in my book but I'm definitely sweating if he isn't there next week.
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You could say so IS.
Even at the prices now i'd be saying ADO is the clear value. He's had a few races where the rating could easily have been more than he was given based on his efforts behind some worldys and for me he's already easy a low 160 horse at least. In a match with thistlecrack you also have to fancy Mouse to have left a few lbs improvement more to come than Tizzard has with Thistlecrack so far. This may not be true and only a haunch I have with Tizzard but I can't have it T has more improvement to come between last run and the big day, especially considering ADO should benefit the most for better ground out of the 2. I don't think there's going to be much between them and I can see them going at it again like Aintree. I think ADO looks a lot more slicker there than he has on the bad ground this season. If camping ground proves he stays the trip this could be a great race to watch but CG has slight concerns too so that's plenty short for me at the mo. |
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Keep the faith EO, at least we know Kilcooley's been given a World Hurdle entry. Hopefully Cleeve will leave him spot on. Fingers crossed.
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And everything else shockster.
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I think the 9/1 NRNB with PP on Cole Harden is a decent bet. I wouldn't be surprised to see this horse peak for this race again, clearly liked things last year and this race has thrown up a few multiple winners in recent years
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I know i keep going on about Cole Harden, i respect any winner from the past but sometimes the form is just rotten.
But just look at his form before his world hurdle...... Cannot just be his breathing or he would had run better as an unfit wh runner in his races so far, fair play to the people that think he is being aimed at one race like the path of a handicapper. His novice form was garbage and he went off 14/1 for the wh last year. The horses behind have done nothing, whisper beat the wh hurdle field and the pipe horse won a french race. The race stinks to high heaven. I could accept the Cole Harden fans if he was 14/1 + As for Camping Ground being 8/1, ridiculous , not even won over 3m in the uk. Thistlecrack has already proven that last years race was crap. Too many punters caught up in the past and the value of named trainers, tizzard can train. |