Cheltenham Festival
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RSA CHASE
RSA CHASE
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Now MOT is 'hot' on the Exchange,...what a difference two days in racing makes? The jockeys and the trainers are really taking the 'mickey' out of punters; I've always thought the City folks were challenging, the racing fraternities are in a different league!
Cannot wait for the Festival to begin...these shenanigans are so unprofessional, to say the least. |
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Was just about post the same impossible! Back into 4's with the books and some good money on here today.
Got everything crossed... My Festival is in danger of taking a horrific turn before I even get there  |
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This quote from Brian Cooper in Saturday's Racing Post amused me:
'I can't understand why he (No More Heroes) is a shorter price than More Of That. Yes, our lad has been very good and has jumped great and has done nothing wrong, but More Of That is a World Hurdle winner and unbeaten around Cheltenham.He's beaten Annie Power as well. He's definitely our main danger.He has a good jumping technique too.If More of That beats us I would n't be shocked.' This about a week after Gordon Elliott agreed with Matt Chapman that More Of That should be favourite for the RSA. So, on the face of it, the connections of the favourite fancy the second favourite and the connections of the second favourite ain't sure they're going to run! The fact is, the media commitments grow year on year so they're asked for more sound bites which means more total nonsense gets spouted. My policy will be the same as it's always been, which is to take notice of them only when they state facts as opposed to expressing opinions. |
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If one fancies Outlander for the JLT get in quick because the price of Outlander has yet to retrace to where it was before ie 4/1 prior to the shenanigans of MOT two days ago and Black Hercules today.
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Bang Bang Bang - Gordon Elliott on No More Heroes c/o Ben Linfoot http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10187513/stable-tour-gordon-elliott-runs-through-his-cheltenham-festival-team
I thought he was very good when he schooled with Don Cossack the other day. He jumped big over the first one or two - that's why we took him up there as he hasn't raced since Christmas - but he was going with the highest-rated Gold Cup horse and I'll think he'll have learnt more there than he probably did in his two previous runs. We're getting there with him and hopefully we'll get him there in one piece. He's favourite and I'm not sure he should be, More Of That is a stayers' winner and five from five at Cheltenham, but when there's a horse like that in the race it takes a bit of the pressure off me. The ground wouldn't be an excuse for him, I'm sure the ground at Cheltenham will be in beautiful condition as it always is. He's not the biggest horse in the world but he's big enough. Sometimes with the big horses it's hard to keep them sound, but he's just the perfect size, he's a little ball and he jumped beautifully at Leopardstown bang, bang, bang. He's a stayer but he's not slow either, jumping is his game and I think Cheltenham will suit him. |
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DR was very impressed with DC and turned it round and said that since he was so impressed with DC you'd have to be even more impressed with NMH who went with a very fluid, beautiful jumping DC who is CG fav when he's only a novice!
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MORE OF THAT, regarded by trainer Jonjo O'Neill as his best chance of a winner at Cheltenham, came through his final festival preparation at Newbury on Friday, after which owner JP McManus said the RSA Chase would be the eight-year-old's most likely target.
McManus's retained rider Barry Geraghty partnered More Of That over five fences with stablemate and older brother Eastlake, who was ridden by Sir Anthony McCoy. Winner of the World Hurdle in 2014, More Of That seems set to run in the RSA Chase, although he is entered in the JLT Novices' Chase as well. 'RSA is most likely' "They seemed to be pleased and he has his chance at Cheltenham," said McManus. "He's in everything, but the RSA is most likely. He'll be better on better ground." Geraghty, whose best chance of a winner at the meeting - according to bookmakers at least - is the McManus-owned Yanworth in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle, added: "He jumped nicely and felt really well. The ground will dictate things and there's no rush to decide what race. He's definitely one of my best chances." Also pleased was O'Neill, who said: "They're happy and I'm happy. That was good and exactly what we wanted to do. He's my best chance at Cheltenham without a doubt." |
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cheers, shockster - no mention of the oppo or running scared of No More Heroes then?
Perhaps it's just Frank Berry that's the nervous type  |
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Wish they'd stop f*cking about and just confirm the RSA!
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That's what I like about Gordon Elliot - he's upfront, decisive and to the point, no ambiguity!
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Nice boost for More of That's form.
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2/1 fav with Paddy now!
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Both of the front two have absolutely zero value in their price now. Slowly but surely the bookies have eked any juice of it out. You'd be mad to take anything shorter than what they are now and I'd expect their current prices to be similar to what they are at the post. I'm happy with my 5/1 MOT. Just hope to hell he makes it now. Likewise with NMH of course so we can have one almighty clash!
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I think this is a 2.5 horse race ie apart from the two main protagonists (NMH/MOT) and only a fall from either/both or last minute rerouting of MOT will create a reasonably chance for those outside these two to actually win the race; the nrnb elsewhere will reduce the betting (not trading) on the Exchange massively for them, and with respect to the connections of Blaklion (game/consistent) and Seeyouatmidnight (very weak/could it be eyeing the 4 miler?) I think they are running for place money only, all things being equal.
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surely connections of more than that prefer the JLT cus the RSA can turn into a slog which can leave a mark on the horse
No more heroes ran well in the Albert Bartlett which is also a bit of a slog, jumps well with enthusiasm and seems to be in love with the game, so should be well suited to this |
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JP has backed MOT for RSA so I hear.
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Interesting thoughts re 2 horse race.
Neither been seen out 2015,one looks like a mudlark,the other about as sound as a chelsea pensioner,both have question marks to answer on several fronts. Thats not to say either can,t win,but value? Cleeve hill used to be a lot lower,rumour has it,its where the RSA shorties are laid to rest. Just a thought. |
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I don't see it as a two horse race either, I love More Of That and, all things being equal, would like him to win - but his profile reminds a little bit of Time For Rupert - the latter did n't win the World Hurdle but was a very good second to the imperious Big Buck's and then won two (more competitive) novices chases at Cheltenham before being let down by his physical frailties in the RSA, More of That is a little fragile and that has to be a concern in such a tough race.
No More Heroes looks very robust but normal festival going is a bit of an unknown, the admirable Blaklion looks sure to run well but I can't quite see him winning and whilst I'd previously liked the chances of Seeyouatmidnight, I was underwhelmed by his performance last time out at Newcastle. The problem with the Mullins contingent is the 'Willie, won't he' factor but I like Roi Des Francs best of his possible contenders (nice form frank today) - I can't have Pont Alexandre who looks soft to me. That leaves Vyta Du Roc who actually reminds me a little bit of Bob's Worth (without his level of form admittedly) - I'd back him if I had to have a be now but it looks like a race to keep your powder dry if you have n't had a bet already, none of the NRNB firms are top price Vyta Du Roc. |
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No More Heroes
He’s been great and I’d agree that he’s exactly the kind of horse we try to buy. He’s where we want him to be but the RSA looks a good race this year and he’ll have it all to do. More Of That brings World Hurdle form to the race and maybe we’re a bit unfortunate to be taking on a very good World Hurdle winner. Roi Des Francs will run too, I think; he has clearly earned a shot at a Grade 1 title and especially one that will involve stamina. |
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Will MOT, BH, RDF, Seeyouatmidnight and possibly Shaneshill be confirmed on 10th March for the race? What a ridiculous scenario for 'punters' with just 9 days to the race? I hope the Festival reverts back to 3 days to eradicate this 'bookie' benevolent programme.
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I've backed MOT and I've got NMH in a couple of Betfair's "enhanced" bolox. But the more I think about it the more I think this is the race where we could see big shocks. I'm tempted to lay both the favourites and take the field at better than evens. I just think both are far too short. MOT is being backed like winning the World Hurdle makes him a certainty, but actually the record of horses going chasing after more than one season of hurdling in this and other novice chases isn't great, and whilst I respect No More Heroes I think it is priced as much on the colour of its silks than actual achievements. With the better going and the decent field almost anything could either improve past these two, outbattle them up the hill or both.
This is one race where I will be studying the videos in great detail to find the horse with the biggest heart, not necessarily the fastest engine. But if I can't decide laying the front two and having the field is a bloody good option! |
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Maybe it's just one where you should leave your brain at the door and look at the record of the fav.
4/4 at cheltenham tells it's own story. enough said. |
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Fwiw, I think your field against the two is a good bet, marychain. They look the two standout horses but, as you say, they adre rather skimpy in the market.
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MOT now fav on the exchanges.
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I guess the worry with this MOT is he's had some relatively easy races now he's thrown in at the deep end. 4/4 at cheltenham so it could be a case of leave your brain at home indeed, but I'm just starting to have my doubts.
just seen a video of this no more heroes galloping with don cossack at leopardstown. don't think I've seen a novice jump with such enthusiam, he actually out jumps the don at most of the fences. |
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DR was saying how impressed he was with with DC and then added but you'd have to be even more impressed with NMH as he's a novice and to be able to go with a fluent DC was something.. D Cassey said he rode in that piece of work with a group of 135+ rated horses and they couldn't get near them and they where flat out
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More of That has now been taken out of the JLT...
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Indeed, what a let down...after what McCoy and others were spouting just a few days ago; could that be a que for BH to be confirmed for the JLT then?
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another one who has been underestimated by the market I think is this black hercules. if you forgive his last run then his jumping display at warwick was as good as anything I've seen from a novice this season.
not sure if he'll line up here or the JLT but if it's the rsa I could be leaning towards backing him and taking on the front two, both are very short and you'd have to say all the juice has gone in their price |
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At the moment BH is being "pointed" towards the JLT but it could all change between now and race day - it is the WPM/RW/GW circus after all. Punters beware!
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As usual Blaklion rang its heart out and won with Shaneshill 2nd; More Of That finished with two bloodied noses and No More Heroes (NMH) sustained a life threatening tendon injury and unlikely to race again, and is still being worked on in an equine hospital - I hope NMH recovers.
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yes all very sad
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No More Heroes, without any doubt in my mind, would be one hell of a Gold Cup horse next year. The fact he injured himself three out and was still jumping the last in the front shows the heart he had. RIP.
Gutted to have lost him, and I thought Long Dog would have a big future over hurdles. I underestimated Blaklion (I think that was because he cost me a lot of money in last years Albert Bartlett, but obviously fences have made him). Shaneshill got up the hill miles better than I think he would and ran a cracker. More of That is very fragile, he's not one that I could have on my mind for the Gold Cup next year. |
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very very sad that he never made it such a loss to the game. thoughts go to connections and all those who lost horses this year. did seem to be a lot i think it was 7
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62 entries for the 2018 race...
Of Orish interest are..... Al Boum Photo (FR) W. P. Mullins, Ireland Bonbon Au Miel (FR) W. P. Mullins, Ireland C'Est Jersey (FR) W. P. Mullins, Ireland Invitation Only (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland Kemboy (FR) W. P. Mullins, Ireland Livelovelaugh (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland Pylonthepressure (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland Rathvinden (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland Saturnas (FR) W. P. Mullins, Ireland Turcagua (FR) W. P. Mullins, Ireland Up For Review (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland De Plotting Shed (IRE) Gordon Elliott, Ireland Dounikos (FR) Gordon Elliott, Ireland Fagan Gordon Elliott, Ireland Jury Duty (IRE) Gordon Elliott, Ireland Mossback (IRE) Gordon Elliott, Ireland Sutton Manor (IRE) Gordon Elliott, Ireland Sutton Place (IRE) Gordon Elliott, Ireland The Storyteller (IRE) Gordon Elliott, Ireland Tombstone (IRE) Gordon Elliott, Ireland Woods Well (IRE) Gordon Elliott, Ireland Shattered Love (IRE) Gordon Elliott, Ireland 10st 11lb Dinaria des Obeaux (FR) Gordon Elliott, Ireland 10st 9lb Moulin A Vent Noel Meade, Ireland Snow Falcon (IRE) Noel Meade, Ireland Monalee (IRE) Henry de Bromhead, Ireland Phil's Magic (IRE) A. J. Martin, Ireland Presenting Percy Patrick G. Kelly, Ireland |
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Like the price of Snow Falcon......25nrnb.
Value imo. |
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Same Budd. Inwas hoping he would go 4 miler though.
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Any reason why Invitation Only has gone out to 25.0 on betfair for this, can't find any comments from Mullins that he goes JLT or may skip festival. Thanks
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Somebody put up Mias Storm today? Bet her at 20s nr-nb yesterday for the race, see being cut in a fair few places this evening
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ive followed you in on 25,s with snow falcon
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