Cheltenham Festival
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RSA CHASE
RSA CHASE
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Which one is a poor jumper banjackst?
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MOT isn't your stereotypical hurdling type who they're "trying" to turn into a chaser, he won the WH as barely a novice himself. I think NMH is playing catch up myself in trying to get to the level MOT may well be capable of.
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NMH is a proper chaser economical and fluent at his fences, hold your breath when your looking at MoT, will be exceptional training performance if Jonjo gets him to win an RSA. The horse has a proven engine thou.
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You're watching a different horse to me mate!
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more of that by jonjos own confession didn't show a lot at home hence he started at 20/1 when he won on his debut, then won a world hurdle as a virtual novice ,seems one of those horses who does enough without being overly impressive and being lightly raced could be a whole lot more to come when seriously asked a question.
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My suggestion would be to back MoT in running where he will trade in double figures at some stage. Although I think NMH is a worthy favorite should MoT be within 5-6 lenghts of the leader(s) between the last two I believe he could win. It won't be plain sailing for him though and taking his current odds would not be smart.
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If NMH is 5-6 lengths clear between the last two then I'll be on my way to the bar to buy everyone a drink because you can guarantee NMH will keep on strong to the line and will jump let last well. I see Cooper going on about 4 out and really pour it on and put his superior jumping to good use. If MOT gives him an inch it's game over.
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I'm on NMH at 8's myself but I ain't foolish enough to underestimate a horse that outstayed annie power up the cheltenham hill, my plan is to back Mot in running. Lets hope your buying the drink but and inch of a lead won't be enough.
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I'm not sure why Seeyouatmidnight's bigger than Blaklion though - was always holding him in the Dipper even in receipt of 3lb and will surely only improve for the step up in distance (might need it on the soft side admittedly).
Not that I don't disagree with you about Seeyouatmidnight improving for the step up in trip, I agree with that, but I'd be very confident Blaklion will improve for the step up as well. If there's ever a horse I've seen that wants every inch of a 3 mile chase, it's Blaklion. Think it's incredibly tough to split those two myself, Seeyouatmidnight looked to have held Blaklion at Cheltenham even if you gave Blaklion the 3 pounds back, but there would have been little in it. I'll be very interested to see if Vyta Du Roc can find some improvement for a longer trip if he runs on the weekend. He's another who looks suited to 3 miles. His mark of 145 so far looks about right and if he can improve half a stone on that he'll be another smart contender. |
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Looking back at last years Neptune and the mother of all blunders at the last from VDR, he still ran on very gamely to take 4th. Great attitude he showed there. Without the stumble I still don't think he'd have beaten Windsor Park but he was nailed on for second.
Again, would probably lack the class of the front two but a nice horse that I'm starting to warm to and his current price of 25/1 could look big if he impresses on the weekend. |
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Yeah, Vyta Du Roc very much under the radar, and outside of MoT, he was probably the best hurdler of them all.
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I'm hoping unlikely as it is that MOT goes JLT and leaves this at the mercy of NMH.
Hurdling wise Monksland and Seeyouatmidnight would surely be next? Though I admit Vtya Du Roc is open to more improvement. |
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Must admit this best hurdler business not really bothered me when looking at Cheltenham novice chases.
By then we should have seen them jump a few fences,and have a good idea who the best jumpers are. Not seen a better one than NMH this season. |
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Agree without hoping to jinx NMH his jumping so far has been effortless and looks a natural, just hope Cooper doesn't panic as he sometimes seems to on the big stage.
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Vyta Du Roc was price wised for RSA by mr segal the other week at 33s. Have to say i took that this day as he seemed to be the first one hes put up with a semblence of a chance i thought. 25s now might still seem to be a little big seeing as this race is bound to be no bigger than 11-12 runner affair and if mot goes jlt (not bothered in the slightest as on any race at 6s) VdR will be no bigger than 10s day of the race!
Another one i mentioned earlier on in the thread, Drumacoo at 20s, backed him at 25s but am getting a little worried as hes not be sighted yet although he seems to be getting nibbled at on here |
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Could be wrong be thought there was mention of Drumacoo going for the Reynaldstown at Ascot on the 20th?
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^
Trainer said the other day that he is Reynoldstown bound |
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Oh right thanks lads must have missed that bit of news
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Can't see Vyta in any entries for the weekend, so I assume he's been scratched? I was planning on putting a saver on him for the RSA, but if he doesn't run, I can't see his price changing and hopefully he'll still be around 20's when NRNB comes in.
John, you are righr; Seeyouatmidnight and Monksland were good hurdlers, and will have been rated higher than VDR, but VDR would have gone far if staying over hurdles this year. All that is subjective though, but he would have gone close in the Neptune anyway. Budd, yes, I don't use hurdle form as a hard and fast rule, but they are a god guide as to a horses natural ability/engine etc, but some do improve or get worse for fences, I completely get that. Also, I have only scanned the last few posts from the other day, but I backed NMH in the AB last year (along with Black Hercules), and I've backed NMH this year, but no matter what Cooper did in the Albert Bartlett, I still don't think he would have won. It was only a small check, and he had plenty of time to get back up, but he simply wasn't as good a hurdler as he is a chaser. |
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Personally think it's only a good guide in the 2m sphere as the staying division are generally embryonic chasers that improve for fences to what they may have achieved over hurdles
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Remember Overturn? Was placed in a Champion Hurdle won a couple of egg n' spoon novice chases but when stepped up to top table at Cheltenham he blew out big time! Donald M Cain said before the Arkle "How many of the runners in the Arkle would've been placed in a Champion Hurdle"? That sort of the way MOT has been so far. Won the world hurdle then this season won a couple of average at best novice hurdles and people think he's going to be a superstar. I think he's going to be shown up big time in the RSA!
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you mean a couple of chases giggsy Shirley! thing is mot hs had only 8 races in his whole career and room for plenty of improvement him and nomore heroes had gold cup entrys so gives an idea of the esteem both horses are held in ,more of that has festival form and in a grade 1 as a virtual novice beating a good mare in annie power not many have beat her when she has completed ,wouldn't underestimate the jonjo horse !
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More of That is a proper National Hunt type horse Giggsy; Overturn was a flat bred, same as Celestial Halo who also placed in a Champion Hurdle but flopped over fences. Can't think of too many flat horses that make it over fences.
More of That is top quality horse who oozes class. If the ground is good on the day he should be favourite for this. |
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I have backed MoT at 6/1 any race straight after that win in December but i am having reservations myself. After all they rarely come back to what they were do they
 He never had a gold cup entry, he was named as a possible in the racing post, entries at that point hadn't been made. I'm with giggsy3444 here unfortunately, i think i've done me doe on him. If he does show in any race at the fez never mind the RSA i feel he will get shown up. He was entered this week, then he wasn't, i am a firm believer that trainers don't just enter horses then pull them for no reason, yes 99% of the time it's due to a better proposition further down the near future but this time with this fellow i am not sure. He beat Annie Power yes, but he missed the whole of the next season through injury and only been out once this term, what are us the betting public not being told about is what im wondering. |
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STS before any of the MOT fans correct you MOT has won twice this season. One was a 3 horse race that only 2 finished. My point is that just because a horse is a good hurdler and wins 2 bad novice chases does not mean that he has transferred ALL of their ability to fences. Overturn jumped brilliantly in his novice chase wins but when stepped up he faltered.
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Wasn't it a breathing problem and breaking blood vessels that kept MOT out last season? I just don't think they want to give him a hard race on bad ground and personally I'd rather see him go to Cheltenham fresh and well. I don't see the fact he wasn't given a GC entry as a negative, I think Jonjo just mentioned it as an option and he has the JLT.
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NO STJ, Horse has been plagued with back problems it's whole career hence so few starts.
I know the lass who has looked after him from day 1 at Jonjo's. |
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Fair enough gut, just shows you the Racing Post lead us down the garden path.
ANALYSIS NOTEBOOK MY RACE NOTES . Chasing stars to have won this event in the past decade include Denman, Imperial Commander, Grands Crus, Dynaste and Taquin Du Seuil. This was another high-class renewal, with More Of That an exciting prospect. MORE OF THAT had run just once since taking the World Hurdle at the 2014 festival, wind issues and a broken blood vessel curtailing his campaign last season. He produced a solid round of jumping, just getting in too close to one down the back, and won readily after leading at the last. He was much the best of these over hurdles, but needed to show that he was over his problems and this rates a very pleasing introduction to chasing. He´s an obvious candidate for the RSA in the spring, with the return to 3m sure to suit. |
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I know mate, I did ask about this and was met with laughter a while ago
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Of course the RP can only report what they are told though.
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Hope ye didn't ask for the ride
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Missus would've took my head off
 , We always used to do all the lead up stuff together. |
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As De Mee, Del Arca and Double Shuffle? Yeah real high class renewal!!
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he can only beat what lines up against him ............
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Then there's the 3 runner race that only had 2 finishers! Yep! Screams out RSA winner to me!
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You won't give up on this will you giggsy! Can you run us through all the great horse NMH has beaten while you crab MoT please.
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Yeah, Vyta Du Roc has been scratched. Was entered in at Warwick, Newbury and Exeter.
Tad concerning. Haven't backed him or anything but it's probably just Henderson and his ground games again. |
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Surprised Out Sam is still available at 40/1 on here and 33/1 firms.
May only have been 3 runners there but the other 2 have solid figures to go against. Think we've seen Greatrex's Festival hand the past week with this and Ma Du Fou his realistic chances of grade wins. Similar, quiet preps and he's always thought the world of him. More popular connections could have seen him go half this price after that, maybe less. |
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Betting has been suspended here - the forfeit stage is tomorrow - any reason why?
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If they all turn up, Reynoldstown looks a very interesting guide to English challenge
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