I think he's a stout stayer myself

You think NMH would run in the GC if one of the two dons didn't, can't have that, RTR or even VL would be in the queue before him surely.

at the risk of repeating myself, No More Heroes was scratched from the Gold Cup at the last forfeit stage - he's no longer entered.

I personally would n't infer that MOT connections want to duck NMH in RSA either - I'd take the quote for what it is i.e. they're keeping their options open - factors like the number of potential runners in each race might be a consideration given MOT has raced a total of 8 rivals in 2 chase starts.

I'd fancy SYAM in the 4 miler, at the risk of being on the harsh side I think he'll simply be outclassed.

Syam has already beaten Blaklion over 20f - the 4 miler could be a mile too far for connections of Syam to ponder.

impossible

it's no coincidence that the bookies are slashing the odds because they're reacting to what Frank Berry said yesterday. The reality is nothing has changed - the 'news' (I use the term loosely) came out yesterday because somebody happened to ask him about the JLT and he gave them an answer. My conclusion would be that the JLT has always been a possibility because they entered him for it.

Another story for the media and an opportunity for the bookies to cut his price for the JLT - I don't see much of a drift for the RSA either by the way - a little on here maybe and a couple of the books but that's about it, certainly he has n' been shunted out in price for the RSA to the same extent that he has been cut for the JLT - so the racing media have a story and the bookies can reduce their liability on a horse who still might run in one of two races - the same as the day before yesterday.

You're probably right about the number of runners - I was just looking for a reason beyond the claim that they want to avoid NMH - I'd suggest the ground might be a factor e.g. if it's soft his stamina would come into play in the JLT and also the RSA becomes more attritional if the ground is soft plus he's had physical problems and his only defeat was over the RSA distance (or similar) on soft ground - though I don't think he was 'right' that day. They're probably talking about the overall strength of the respective races though - don't think it's in connections' DNA to avoid one rival otherwise MOT would n't have won the World Hurdle and Synchronised would n't have won the Gold Cup. Also, as someone else stated, Jonjo was uncharacteristically bullish about his chances without specifying the race when quoted the other day (now I'm using the media to support my argument).

It's a typical media,market and in some cases punter overreaction to one answer to one question by one member of connections of one horse on one day - when in reality, nothing has changed, apart from the JLT prices of course.

For the record I've not bet him in either race and have no other bets in either race - I think the RSA would be the right race for him given normal festival conditions but it's entirely understandable his target is 'up in the air' simply because they don't have to make a decision yet.     

I suspect they could supplement NMH for the Gold Cup if they wanted to - but why on earth would they want to? If that was a possibility surely they would n't have taken him out in the first place?

Excellent post Rease, agree with pretty much all of that.

Re NMH, if something happens to a Don, they have Road to Riches and Valseur Lido to rely on (betting starting to look like they'll rbe Ryanair bound, and Willie didn't mention VL when asked about his Gold Cup runners the other day; he only mentioned Vautour, Don P and Djak).  I'd say there is a less than 1% chance of NMH being in the Gold Cup.

Re MoT; whilst no doubt he will get the trip because he won the World Hurdle, I tend to think of the RSA being a lot more attritional, despite being over the same distance.  There's probably less room for errors too over fences.

I think MoT would have a lot more pace the NHM, but I could see NMH staying out the trip a bit better.  So based on that, and his prep, MoT would be in the JLT if he were mine, and he'd be one of the bets of the week.  Vautour has shown that you can win that, and then all roads lead to the Gold Cup next year.

As he's so lightly race, and inexperienced over fences, I think his Gold Cup chances next year would be better if they went easier on him this year, and went the JLT route.

That said, I think it's about 70/30 that he ends up in the RSA.

with another half furlong

All a game of opinions!  I think it might have been a bit exaggerated because he was against Annie Power, who I think was close too empty at that point.

Immediately post 'that' interview with the RP the prices of MOT here drifted from 4.5 to 7+ and its JLT prices contracted from 12/14 to 5/7 (on street bookies, here from 26 -> 8) bearing in mind almost every bookie has the RSA the number 1 target for MOT.

As for NMH, assuming he can be supplemented on 12th March after being taken out at the forfeit stage, NMH will definitely be GC bound if the Dons is/are unable to run; with respect to RTR and VL, they are not creditable or suitable subs as far as Gigginstown is concerned.

Since that 'timely' interview and McCoy's 'tip' (allegedly) I'd say 80/20 MOT is JLT bound unless NMH is a late sub for the Dons.

You're right Duffy, but I just think that was more because MoT was in a different league to those beaten ones behind Annie Power, not because he stayed a lot better than them.  As I said, it'd be ridiculous to say he won't stay the RSA, and I'm not saying that, but we've only really got one run in his whole career to judge him on.

My view is he outstayed Annie Power, who isn't a 3miler, and the rest were just below standard (Big Bucks was at the time).  It's a shame he's never ran in a proper 3m race since for us to know abit more.

Impossible, if Giggi think RTR isn't a credible sub, then they must have been smoking something.  He was third in it last year, whereas NMH has won novice chases over Monksland.

Apologies meant NMH

Scooby how do ye find these writeups I've been on that website but can't find anything

After the incident in the AB last year where NMH was 'blocked' by Milsean, another Gigginstown runner at the crucial moment I believe Gigginstown will not allow that to happen again this year especially in the GC - I hope not (anyway).

No conspiracy theory here impossible....NMH was just give a dreadful ride. Cost me big time too.

DM: Likes DC. Said last race was confidence boost. Excited to ride VL.

Just checked was david mullins

Glad that VL is going Gold Cup route, cheers Scooby.

Think he deserves his chance after his last run and is a lively outsider.

festival,

I was on it too. I think BC, on the best horse in the field and at Cheltenham with an uphill run in, ought to have challenged on the outside rather than next to the rails where there was little or no room.

I'm on DC for the Gold Cup, and I hope BC has learned from last year and not rushed the horse liked he did in the King George at Kempton at x'mas when the pace quickened.

pretty average performance by SYAM today cant see that winning on that performance

I backed SYAM ages ago at 33s tbh i was at first a little bit down heartened by todays run, 8s on and was expecting the effort to be more impressive however after deliberating over it i am keeping my bet alive as am pretty sure hes the sort to only put in whats required is he not, plus am pretty confident this close to the big day he would not have been on the racecourse if connections didn't feel he needed a sharpener.

Happy with the 33s in a tight little RSA given how it looks very likely to cut up, the stats that surround the fav's in that race plus the fact that all bar MoT and now SYAM (the ground was not all that bad at Newcastle today) have been running on bottomless winter ground.

ny help?