Cheltenham Festival
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RSA CHASE
RSA CHASE
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Reynoldstown on the 20th or not at all I reckon.
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Given MOTs well documented frailties, is anyone concerned that there may be something amiss?
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I'd def be worried if I were a backer, but that's just me.
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John Jo said it's purely down to the ground. If I was a backer I'd be concerned if he went there without another run. His last win was on Dec 12th in a 3 runner race that only 2 finished. Not an ideal prep.
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Reynoldstown is on the same day as the Kingwell at Wincanton when MTOY is supposed to be returning. Surely connections would want Barry to ride both for both prep runs?
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As a backer, I will definitely be worried if he doesn't have another run. NMH is going to be a very tough nut to crack and he will need another run and the perfect prep to beat him imo.
I have never worried about them going down the JLT route, but now KV is out, if they dont get another run into him, Im worried that will be come more likely. |
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Don Poli bucked that long lay off stat last year, but with hindsight it was a poor renewal. It's far from ideal to go into a RSA with so little experience and off such a long lay off - disclaimer, my only play thus far is Drumacoo, even less experience.
I think that this race is looking more and more open by the week, along with the JLT, I wouldn't be surprised to see some unexpected entries for either race to be confirmed. |
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Frank Berry confirms MOT will more than likely head to Cheltenham without another run. Not good news for backers.
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No not ideal.
I suppose the only consolation for backers is that he has shown he can go well fresh before and won the World Hurdle with exactly the same prep, is a year older than most and did jump very well on both runs. |
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The season he won the World he had 3 runs beforehand and it was 2 years ago. How do we know he even retains the same ability n vet mind copin with NMH. His runs this season didn't confirm he is. His last race had only 3 runners and only two finished.
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He had one more run yes, but I meant the same lay off before the Festival.
Well obviously that's the big question, but NMH's form hasnt exactly been top class this season. You can pick just as many holes in his as you can MoT. And you cant fault how MoT has won both his races, thats for sure. |
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Just b cause you win 2 average (and in the case of his last race below average) chases does not turn you into a Cheltenham winner. On collateral form NMH is a far superior horse than Outlander and he's being talked up as a very live JLT contender.
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I think you contradict yourself in that post myself. Yes MoT has won a couple of average races, Im not trying to argue otherwise, but so has NMH. So neither does him winning a couple make him a Cheltenham winner. Especially when he has failed there before, where MoT has succeeded.
The collateral form making him better than a horse who hasn't proved the worth of that yet is largely irrelevant at this stage surely? |
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I agree with both of you!
A lot of people have this down as a one or two horse race. But reputation and hurdles form aside, I'm not sure either have done enough to convince me to back them for this at the prices. |
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I was going to say how i trust Jonjo is doing the right thing, and that what he is doing will ultimately give MOT a better chance of winning @ Cheltenham, but i'm afriad of what Giggsy will reply. Be gentle.
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As A backer of MOT, I am delighted that he's going straight to the Festival. I was very concerned about him being entered up for a slog around somewhere and I am sure that they can achieve the same by working him at home. I am far happier that they will be minding him and keeping him fresh for the RSA. After Don Poli last year, the old stat about having a run in the same calendar year is now consigned to the bin. I know they are delighted with him and that Barry G considers him one of his best rides (THE best until Yanworth trotted up) I just hope he gets there in one piece and shows what a great prospect he is for next year. I know that I am in a minority, but I couldn't have the Elliot horse, I think MOT is in a different league and the fences are his only danger. That said, good luck to all.
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Its easy to make cases for both horses imo. I get a little annoyed that those who fancy NMH are dismissing MoT out of hand, when both horses face similar question marks. I am a MoT backer but I respect NMH.
In two Chases so far, MoT has beaten early to mid 140 horses easily. In three Chases so far, NMHhas beaten mid to high 140 horses easily. Neither have given any clear evidence of their ceiling, so there is no solid proof just how good either are... just educated guesses. NMH fans simnply cant argue with the fact MoT has been there and done it at the Festival and in a Grade 1 to boot. Its personal opinion whether you think NMH was unlucky or not, but either way, the fact is he couldnt even win a Novice Hurdle. I think its going to be the match up of the week myself and cant wait. |
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*Ahem* Drumacoo beat the 140 rated Fletchers Flyer by 38 lengths #justsaying
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Match up of the week is an interesting concept CCM.
Not really thought about it, but I suppose Douvan & Ar Mad going at it hammer and tongs up front in the Arkle is the one I'm really looking forward to. |
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 Have a few bob him myself at 25/1 mate  |
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Excuse me CANT CATCH ME!! But a certain Sprinter Sacre couldn't win a novice hurdle at the festival and if memory serves me right he turned out to be a decent chaser!!
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Haha! Not saying he won't win mate, just trying to balance the argument.
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I'm a bit of an Anorak with these things! lol.
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Hendo never wanted to run him that day Giggsy, the owners insisted.
Besides, that won't be far off as good a renewal of the Supreme as there has been. I wonder if NMH is a bit more Boston Bob than Sprinter Sacre........ *quietly slips on tin hat* |
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You do get the impression the stable have been happy with MoT all season - so I'm not particularly perturbed about him going straight there, they obviously feel there's less to gain and more to lose by running in what would probably be another small field affair which would n't prove much anyway.
I was going to write that the front two are both too short but maybe they're not because the race does look to potentially lack depth - I'm not sure why Seeyouatmidnight's bigger than Blaklion though - was always holding him in the Dipper even in receipt of 3lb and will surely only improve for the step up in distance (might need it on the soft side admittedly). |
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DELSIE777 if they could do just as much work at home than on the racecourse then why don't all horses go straight to the festival without ANY runs? They need race fitness and experience that can only be hit by running.
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Agree with that rease - besides whenever MOT shows up, all the opposition are frightened off so small fields are always likely. Complete waste of energy in my opinion. To be fair, I'm not surprised NMH is going straight there too - he wouldn't want another slog after that last race he had in the mud. Couldn't have him after the way he threw it in last year, Reckon 3 miles stretched him up that hill.
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Threw it in??!!!!
Need to watch again imo. |
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Threw it in??!!!!
Need to watch again imo. |
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I'm not one to apportion blame on the pilot however, for whatever reason, the pilot of NMH chose to deliver his challenge on the inside (rail) and was squeezed by the eventual runner up (same ownership); if the pilot had challenged on the outside I believe NMH would have won the AB.
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I was on him that day, budd - and don't buy into the 'unlucky' scenario. Cooper went for the gap because he thought he would go through it but the horse didn't fancy it and the front two went away. All about opinions mate, but I just don't think he had anything left to give and the front two were too good on the day. Just won't be him again - but good luck if you are. For me, rather have MOT and Barry G than NMH and Cooper.
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Well I just think it harsh to label him with that on that run, its far from clear to me.
Hes not shown any sign of that in any other race that I know of. I'm not saying who will win out of the two favs,i will leave that to those that wish to. To be honest that's because I find it darn hard to say which has the better chance. Will say though,i don't think its a two horse race by any means. |
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CCM, Denman couldn't even win a novice hurdle at the Festival - how did his RSA Chase go the following year?
These horses who can't even win novice hurdles like him and Sprinter Sacre but do OK over fences is maybe because they were made to be chasers so trainers send them chasing straight after their novice hurdle year. Unlike the talented hurdlers who stay hurdling first because they don't scream chaser. Think you are clutching at straws. |
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Roger. You've named two of the best horses of the last decade to prove the point. Are you suggesting NMH should be in such exalted company?
I'm not sure how I'm clutching at straws when I'm just pointing out MoT had the much better hurdles form and they have comparable Chase form thus far? |
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These horses who can't even win novice hurdles like him and Sprinter Sacre but do OK over fences is maybe because they were made to be chasers so trainers send them chasing straight after their novice hurdle year. Unlike the talented hurdlers who stay hurdling first because they don't scream chaser.
Fair points |
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I agree. If connections of MOT thought he was a natural chaser then why did they continue hurdling with him the season after he won the World instead of sending him chasing? Elliott has always said that NMH was a chaser and said even early last season that he would be going chasing this season.
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may be they thought he could win another world hurdle then go chasing
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One looks a natural chaser and the other is a poor jumper
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I think the argument would have more credence if MoT hadn't looked such a natural over his fences on his first two runs. But as he has, I don't really see the point. Are people suggesting he isn't a natural chaser based on what they've seen?
As has been posted before he had won a Grade I World Hurdle, which must have made it a slightly tougher decision, plus he had had injuries which probably also contributed to their decision. |
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I don't think NMH is a poor jumper BaNjackst?
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