Cheltenham Festival
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RSA CHASE
RSA CHASE
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I backed a few at big prices the other day including LESSONS In MILAN at 340.0 runs today in a 2m6 chase with plenty of weight and I'm hoping he wins this easily and goes onto the rsa. Longshot but still over 100.0 and badly in need of more rsa options imo.
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Any idea why betfair gone 7/2 NMH is it a price boost? Or just pushed out.
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Just seeing sense scooby... and realising MoT should be fav
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Joking apart scooby, might just be reaction to Elliot saying they wont be running in the Flogas and will go straight to the Festival now?
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Isnt there some stat about RSA winners running the calendar year... Im sure something like that last 50 winners had run in the same calendar year prior to DP winning last year as it was regularly mentioned as a negative for him?
Im personally not one to get too bogged down in those type of stats anyway. The fact Don Poli won with a simialr prep should allay an fears for the horse... and it was only a few days from being this calendar yearanyway so cant really see how its relevant. |
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Drumacoo is a fascinating entry. difficult to know what his last facile victory adds up to form wise but visually very impressive on chase debut and first run for over a year. penciled in to run at Ascot in a couple of weeks so may learn bit more then.
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I backed Lessons in Milan at the same time as i back seeyouatmidnight both at 33s cos of the amount of money waiting to back them both at the time at 50s and 55s on here. As they at the time looked like not being matched by anyone i took the 33s available with the traditional books. Since then see you has been out and won but LIM has done nowt but drift, all of the lump laid on it and went to massive odds making me think the fez was out the window and that he has had a setback.
No news is good news on him and seeing him running this afternoon (have no interest today) i would dearly love to see him win and win well too |
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Sts.
Henderson said last week after being asked by ed quigley in his sj column. all is well with the horse he's been ready to run and waiting for better ground. |
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The 7/2 from Betfsir was a price boost. He's now 3.85. My concern with MOT is if they thought he was a future chaser why did they not go novice chasing the season after he won the World? Connections of NMH said even b4 the AB that he was a chaser for this season and now we can see why. He's been brilliant and has everything you need 2 win the RSA.
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CCM: RSA usually one of the strongest stats races of the year.
20 of the last 23 winners were novice hurdlers the previous season. The one's that weren't were the great Florida Pearl (st. from bumpers), Hanakham (ptp) & rule supreme (2nd season nov. chaser) Don Poli was the first horse to win having not had a run after 31st Dec in the last 52 runnings. In mitigation of the last stat: Last year's race was woeful with only 8 runners. In fact the only horse to win a chase since was Don Poli. If in Doubt won a pertemps hurdle qualifier at xmas. That's it. Southfield Theatre, Wounded Warrior, Young Master and Kings Palace haven't won a sausage between them since. |
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Well think we can forget about Lessons in Milan! Betslip in the bin.
After saying that I had no interest in the race today I had a look and thinking about the drift on here for the rsa, I backed the jolly at 9/4!! The pipe horse looked to be going well from about 4 out but my shout was being ridden and had been past at the 2nd last, looked held but on take off at the last I'm certain he was a length to the good when he came down  |
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^^April Dusk^^
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Seeyouatmidnight now not running at the weekend following unsatisfactory workout and scope. May head straight to festival.
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Great thread guys
Have watched MOT 2 chase wins. Jumped proficiently and the horse has such a great attitude. Would not be too worried about him not running over 3 miles over jumps yet. His world hurdle win was top drawer and he stayed all the way up the hill. If this race cuts up as it probably will, i dont think it will become a gruelling race as it can be. NMH looked every inch a chaser last season and was really unlucky in the AB at last years festival. If he could have grabbed the rail before the last i am convinced he would have won. In his 3 chases so far he has jumped great and looks to have a real engine. Hes a top quality animal. Have paid too much attention to stats in the past and have missed countless winners because the horse didnt fit the correct criteria. Don Poli debunked the "the not having run in the calendar year" theory last year so am keeping an open mind to all angles. As Jerry Jones of the Dallas Cowboys once said " Stats are for losers, they relish in them!!!" This race really does look between these 2 and kudos to those on here who have decent prices on either. I have not played yet as i think it is such a difficult choice between the pair and may well wait till the day but it is a race i am really looking forward to. For a small stakes EW sneak i do like Native River. He stayed on really well at Kempton at a course which obviuosly didnt play to his strengths. Cheltenham will suit him much better although Tizzard has said the 4 miler is an option but 25/1 is fair value for a place. Good luck all |
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Also interesting that Bitofapuzzle looks to be taking the 3 mile option at Wetherby , rather than the 2 1/2 at Sandown , should clarify target .
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I thought Native River was going for National after his last race. Even if he wins tomorrow I don't think he can trouble the RSA market principles.
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A 6yo Novice going for the National???
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aren't we in Cheltenham topics ? The National Hunt, you know.. the oldest festival race?
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trainer has said all the decent jockeys will be booked now re the 4 miler - i was all over this for the 4 miler, i really thought this was a real no brainer and have lost all hope - he would start off near fav imo and couldnt be bothered to ear mark a jockey - seems as though he never had any intention to run in it - may be wrong but think he will be outpaced in rsa unless ground v testing -
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Milton this was on Twitter last night and one of the reporters on there said Tizzard has since said, that he still prefers the 4 miler and favouring that option. A jockey was mentioned but I can't remember who they said would ride.
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thanks shockster - given me some hope sir - good job everythings on line now otherwise would be sellotaping back my slips
 not sure the ticker can cope with another 40 days!!! |
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He's used Michael Legg a fair bit (not completely useless)though I think he works for Harry Fry.
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That's the name FF that was being mentioned on Twitter.
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Sorry Timtim but never heard the 4 miler referred to as National
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Sorry Timtim but never heard the 4 miler referred to as National
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just looked him up - trainer trusted him with a few of his good ones thistlecrack, grand vision , oiseau de nuit - last two rides UR and F ridden 17 winners under rules with 12% strike rate so cold be worse i guess
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@willz it was all under context of my post(National vs RSA), sorry if I got you confused
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No worries pal
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Got to love Blaklion
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F ck you're quick
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I'm on NMH at 12/1 and 8/1 after his debut. Thinking bout having a saver on MOT as I see him as the only danger.
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Good move giggsy.
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FORM AN ORDERLY AT THE WINDOW
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Should I back MOT now or wait til the day?
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UNLESS MOT STANDS FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN MORE OF THAT FORGET IT
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He wont be 9-2 on the day but that's without NRNB
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But if he runs again and doesn't win it'll be money down the drain.
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Or lay off a portion of NMH here to secure a 'free' ride plus profit should it win.
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What do you think willie will run in this race apart from pont? He must run something else as with the current field it looks one of the easier races to win at the festival imo.
The fields going to cut right up if the market is right. If black hercules, kv, outlander and rdf don't turn up as it looks to be the case. Then blaklion 16/1 ew would be a cracking bet imo. |
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I like Blaklion,that's the second time I've been impressed with his jumping.
I've taken the price this evening after a bit of thought,he may have more chance on soft ground maybe? but he does have some fair bits of form on better ground. |