Cheltenham Festival
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RSA CHASE
RSA CHASE
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This is??? I mean the other one is lol
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Looks like MOT next run is going to be over 2 1/2m at Sandown in the Scilly Isles. 1st run over fences at 3m is going to be the RSA by the looks of it. What do you think about that?
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Wouldn't bother me, he stayed 3 over hurdles and shaped in the WH as if he would have gone a good bit further, at the end of the WH he was going on strongly.
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Yeah - don't want him wearing himself out before Cheltenham, giggsy!
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Different discipline so I would rather see him win over the distance before the big one. I wouldn't say they're doing it to keep him fresh. NMH didn't exactly have a tough time last time out over the trip.
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There aren't many Grade 1 options for MOT giggsy. He could have gone for the Reynoldstown over 3m but it is not till the latter half of the month. The Silly Isles will give them an extra 2+ weeks to work with. Not ideal distance from my point of view but would have preferred that then the Reynoldstown to be honest.
You're not still on about that JLT option are you? You've either had the house on MOT in the JLT or you've had the house on NMH and are running scared. Which is it?  |
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Agree Giggsy. Only Cooldine and Star De Mahaison have won the RSA in the last 10 years without having a run over 3m over fences.
It will have been two years since his one and only run over 3m (I'm ignoring his Medinas defeat because he was injured that day), which is far from ideal. His profile doesn't scream RSA horse to me at all. Very classy, lightly raced and quite fragile horse with one win over 3m. Not doubting his ability, but if they don't run him over 3m beforehand, his prep and profile would scream JLT to me (although I fully expect him to end up in the RSA). |
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giggsy is a NMH man I reckon
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Myself and Giggsy have both admitted to being on NMH at double figure odds. That doesn't enter my head when thinking about More of That though, because my money is down and there's nothing I can do or say that will impact where MoT will end up.
Just looking at the facts that he has one "completed" hurdles run over 3m, and none over fences. The only positive I can think of is in his World Hurdle campaign he was kept at 2.5m and upped to 3m for the big one, and it looks like they'll follow that formula. I just have in my head that the RSA seems to be a bit more of a grueling race than a World Hurdle though. |
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Note to Self: Disregard anything Wellchief or Giggsy have to say about MOT. Clearly running scared and rightfully so.
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 Haha, that's fine mate. If you want to base your RSA bet on one run in a World Hurlde two years ago against a doubtful stayer then that's up to you.Now watch Pont Alexandre hack up and we can all say it was obvious he would come on for his last run |
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As a supporter of NMH I'm aware of the danger posed by MOT - MOT does have a touch of class about him despite not been over 24f over fences. But Pont Alexandre is as a good as he showed in defeat against RDF I believe after a long spell out injured.
However, the sustained lack of interest for MOT post scratching from the Gold Cup is baffling unless MOT is destined for the JLT. |
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MOT in the any race market at 6/1 right after seeing him last time on a racecourse was the correct bet imo, glad i took that instead of rsa or jlt. Wonder what likelyhood of him is of not turning up at all
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Yes I have backed NMH at a double figure and yes I do think MOT is a big danger. However winning the RSA demands more from MOT. Is is a more thorough test of stamina and jumping and MOT has not confirmed if he has required stamina for the race. I was thinking of having a wee saver on MOT but the closer we get to the race the less likely I am going to do it. Ok me and wellchief might be looking through rose tinted glasses a bit but IF MOT wins at Sandown and lines up for the RSA with NMH he will have more questions to answer because we know NMH is a great jumper and we know he will stay the trip and more. When it comes to that hill who will stay best? Only one answer in my opinion!
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I've backed NMH and MOT for an almost identical profit return and MOT's prep is starting to look more aligned to the JLT than the RSA in my opinion, which I'm not delighted about. These two are miles clear in my view and I'd like both lining up in the RSA.
There are three things I'm holding onto in terms of the RSA still being the target: 1: his best performance ever was in the world hurdle 2: in the same article that Jonjo states his next target, he clearly says that he's waiting with his best horses for better ground so maybe that's why we've not seen him for a while, and the number of races left before chelt to get a run in are diminishing 3. The JLT COULD end up being the novice race of the festival. If Douvan wins his public schooling session without any issues on Sunday then we could be in for a very low runner arkle. If I owned the likes of L'ami Serge he'd be in the JLT. For me, bar any issues injury wise or clouting a fence, Douvan's name is as good as on the Arkle trophy. Add into the mix that some RSA horses may go JLT or the 4 miler to avoid NMH, the RSA could be a far easier option for MOT than the JLT. |
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Tory
I cannot agree more; if the likes of L'Ami Serge and MOT were to be re-routed to the JLT for instance to have the best chance of winning, it could also mean a progressive step towards the King George and ultimately the Cheltenham Gold Cup especially the latter. |
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Jonjo is keeping MOT for better ground, what if it is no better at the time of the Sandown race? Does he pull him out and wait for the Reynoldstown? Then what if that isn't suitable? There's only so long he can wrap him in cotton wool.
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I've just had a sneaky £2 at huge odds for the world hdl MOT, well you never know
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I'd like to think that I keep pretty impartial in these type of things, no matter who I back. When looking at the preps, regardless who I have personally backed, MoT hasn't had an RSA prep, and that would worry me if I was a backer.
He may well be a hell of a lot better than NMH, but at least NMH can't have any excuses, because he has had the ideal prep imo, especially if they can sneak one more run into him. If anyone backed MoT pre-season, I don't think anyone can be too happy with how his season has gone, bearing in mind you have backed him for the RSA. Now if you're thinking of the JLT, he's had an ideal prep hasn't he? Not too disimilar prep to Killultagh Vic, Shaneshill and L'Ami Serge. NMH is already rated 158, and I find that conservative considering he wasn't really extended when beating Rule the World by 9 lengths, and has done that over 3m. I'm not doubting MoT could run to a similar mark or higher, but when looking at the current betting in relation to the RSA, NMH (even at 3/1) has to be better value than MoT at 9/2 - 5/1. Pre-season, they were round about the same price, and I can understand that, but I think that the market has it correct at the moment. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and afterwards we could all be saying that we couldn't believe that MoT was available at 5/1, but as it stands today, while he is a sound ew bet (lack of depth in the race so I think he's nailed on 3rd or better), winning is another matter. That might sound like pocket talking, but genuinely, if a MoT backer can have a counter argument, other than "he won the World Hurdle two years ago", feel free to shoot me down |
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At 5/1 if More of That heads to the RSA he'd be looking like my NAP of the festival. Certainly at this stage anyway, although I'd want one thing before calling him a NAP and that's the ground to be good to soft or better.
Jonjo of course knows him just a bit better than I do and he'll no doubt do the right thing but it's plain to see he wants a trip. In both his runs this season over 21f he's only just started to get going after the final fence and starts pulling clear when coming up the hill. 3 miles is only likely to bring further improvement as will better ground, he won his World Hurdle on good. I was strong on Annie Power in that WH and was seriously impressed by More of That to put her to bed, considering she ran a blinder as well. Rock solid form and although it's a very overused saying in NH racing, I couldn't help but immediately think after that race 'potential gold cup winner there'. Whether that happens is a way off yet but he certainly doesn't lack any class or staying power. It only really dawned on me again about a week to 10 days ago what a good thing he could be if he makes it there sound with his conditions, so I've had to get involved really, but as some of you in this thread have pointed out the JLT looks very hot IF they swerve Douvan. I have no doubts about Killultagh Vic going JLT. L'ami Serge would be very dangerous too so I don't know why Jonjo would want to go steaming into them lot when classy opposition looks weak on the ground in the RSA, No More Heroes aside. I'll pay respect to Seeyouatmidnight and Blaklion, they look roughly of the same ability and are no slouches in the slightest, probably better than everything Don Poli beat in his RSA last year. But to my eye More of That has at least half a stone on them, at least half a stone, too much class. Black Hercules may go elsewhere yet but if he goes here fear him not being good enough. Not convinced he loves Cheltenham either. No More Heroes looks a very good one, took to Cheltenham well and if it went soft I'd quite possibly trade out as he seems to love a bog, but he's only raced once on good to soft or better over 3 miles and was well beat. I'll have MOT all day on good ground. I may have done my money if they take him to the JLT but I'd be gobsmacked if they go down that road with him. 5/1 is still a damn good bet in my view. |
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I don't think NMH needs a bog to show his best. It was soft when he should've won the AB last year and when he hacked up on his chasing debut over 2 1/2m it was good ground. Cooper has already said that he stays very well but he has a bit of toe. He beat Shaneshill over hurdles last year so he's not lacking a bit of pace.
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He may well go ok on better ground but just feel he'll be at his best with a bit of cut. Wouldn't be too worried about not winning the Albert Bartlett on soft, he was never a hurdler, a typical Gigginstown chasing sort. Just feel better ground will play into More of That's hands.
One potential negative for More of That is the prep. To be honest I'm not sure I'd want to see him out on this ground getting close to the big day, but would be nice to see him have one more run just for some more chasing experience. Could do him good. I've never cared for this daft must have a run in the calendar year stat. Don Poli put that rubbish to bed last year, and he only had 2 chases prior to the RSA, but more chasing experience is always a plus. Would imagine he'll be fine fresh as he had 3 months between his run at the 2013 International meeting and the 2014 World Hurdle. |
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I feel NMH is a more natural chaser than MOT so on better ground when they're going a bit quicker his jumping will be an even better advantage. You could see in his last run when they started quickening up going down the back the 2nd time his jumping was fantastic and he was gaining ground at every fence. Even when he doesn't meet one quite right he gets over quick and still makes ground. Very intelligent at a fence.
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Fair play lads some excellent arguments for both horses. Can't add much myself as i think everything has been covered but will just that say that i would be absolutely shocked if he didn't run in the RSA. When it happens it'll be the match up of the festival. GL
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From a money point of view I hope MOT doesn't turn up but as a racing fan I hope he runs because I think it'll be a cracker. Even though NMH should still win. lol.
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Wouldn't be worried if MOT never ran again until the festival, hasn't run over 3 over fences, wouldn't be worried, different discipline I know, but I saw enough in the WH to tell me he stays 3 and more and his jumping that we have seen has been good.
I wouldn't be getting too excited about this mighty achievement that NMH seems to have accomplished, yes he's won over 3 miles, but all horses in that race until 2 out and ultimately he's beaten Monksland who's won once over 3 beating zaidpour, but certainly isn't the strongest stayer by any means and the compulsive loser RTW who's never even won over further than 20f, so that race is no guide to an RSA winner whatsoever. |
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Gold Cup aside, from a head to head POV it's probably the match up of the meeting. Seeing these two fighting it out will be a joy to watch. Don't worry lads, he'll be going RSA
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We could go back and forth saying MOT will win or NMH will win the RSA. We all have our own views and opinions and by the sounds of it none of us are going to change our minds or admit any wavering in our previous convictions! But that's ok because that's what is great about NH racing and Cheltenham in particular. It's the reason we come on here year after year and have discussions and occasionally heated debates about what we feel will happen during those 4 days in Match that we countdown the days to see. Weather our ante post bets or our "That's next years winner" predictions come true. I say BRING IT ON and if I'm wrong I'll gladly come on here and admit so and say "Well done" to the people who were right and won a few quid from the bookies! Enjoy!!!!
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I can see the RSA cutting up to about 6 or 7 runners.
NMH wins by a county mile, hope this helps :) |
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O/T
How many of these good things will duly obliged? For instance, Min, Douvan, Faugheen, NMH, UDS and Vautour (Ryanair). |
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If there's a good thing in the RSA, it's MOT I'd have thought, I mean, who hasn't beat RTW?
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I definitely don't see NMH as good thing. Even MIN shouldn't be classed as a cert.
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Initial entry stage. Anybody think there'll be a surprise?
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i agree with the sheikh
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This weekends Scilly Isles could be a hot race if they stand their ground. More of that, tea for two and Mullins has 4 entered. What do you guys think?
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More of That totally different class - will stripe 'em. Raring to go - nice easy race to put the finishing touches to a perfect prep. Banker of the meeting - even more than Yanworth
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Scilly Isles does look top class, but so too does the Towton Chase at Wetherby. 2 really good novice chases on the same afternoon. Will the RSA market be the same come 4 O'clock on Saturday?
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On rating MOT has a bit to find with NMH but not with KV; the fly in the ointment is...will LS be part of the jigsaw as well?
Shaneshill is very week in the JLT market; if it's 'rested' and not run in the Festival, and Black Hercules (BH) runs at the weekend, could that enhance which race BH run in the Festival instead? More headache for antepost players. |
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What will the market look like this time next week? It's a tough race at Sandown and if MOT wins easily I might have a wee saver on him at Cheltenham to cover my NMH 12/1.
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If so, it could be 2/1 - 5/2 for either MOT or NMH; if not, the JLT might have another 'runner' and the price for MOT will be significantly less than 16/1 currently showing here, I'd imagine.
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