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Cheltenham Festival
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These 734 comments are related to the topic:
RSA CHASE
RSA CHASE
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Replies: 734
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Is NMH going to run in that FLOGAS race at Leopardstown on Saturday - surely not? That's a brutal race and really competitive. Surely he'll swerve that? I know it will cut up and that Douvan and Killultagh Vic won't run - but there's a load of big names in there at the moment. Mind you, Elliot loves to run 'em, doesn't he?
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Thought he was going straight to festival as he's won 3 races already. Don't know if I want him 2 run again.
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Regards NMH: not according to trainer but straight to Cheltenham beckons; Douvan certainly won't and neither will Shaneshill, but possibly Black Hercules or Pont Alexandre (needs experience) but not both I'd imagine.
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I'm not sure Teafortwo is going to Cheltenham is he? Connections increasingly convinced he needs to go RH (LH 0-6,RH 7-8).I can see a scenario where he wins the Scilly Isles because he's totally tuned up for it and More of That loses little in defeat but drifts in RSA market - a bit speculative obviously.
In other news Bristol De Mai entered in Scilly Isles over 2m 4f and Vyta Du Roc entered in Towton over 3m which might be indicative of thinking for the Munir/Suede horses - and perhaps strengthens the thought that L'Ami Serge will go Arkle. Not sure BDM will run though as he only ran the weekend before last at Haydock although NTD likes to keep 'em busy. Of the Mullins contigent, Outlander and Pleasant Company have n't run since end Dec but after the last day they said PA needed the run more than RdF - given they also thought Pont Alexandre travelled over poorly prior to his previous Festival run, they might want to send him to Sandown to see if he copes with the travel OK. All highly speculative musings obviously. |
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You're right Reaseheath, T42 not going Cheltenham in March.
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BDM has also been entered for the RSA and the CH (only if it comes up very soft).
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Looks like MOT won't be running on Saturday because BARRY G will be needed in Iteland. John Jo said he'll prob run at Kempton or Newbury. Don't know when those two races take place.
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3M Nov Chase on Betfair Hurdle day and the 2.5M grade 2 Pendil chase on Racing Post chase day.
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The most appropriate prep race must be the horse's number one intended race eg 24f, a prep race over 24f especially if running against NMH in the RSA, surely. Or are they still undecided as yet?
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MOT is still 16 on here so there's still uncertainty in the market.
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MOT was laid at 170 here for a brief moment!
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I like Seeyouatmidnight. Caught my eye last year in his hurdle year. I guess Im always looking for big price winners. Thought he ran a blinder in the world hdl. On bridle on home turn (was getting a little excited I can tell you) disappointed he got beat at Carlisle but thought was a massive price when he beat blaklion at chelt. Small trainer, from the north ( not a great advert for a g1 at chelt) but I love him. Stays forever and improving. Could be value against the hot pots and a really good playable ew price.
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More Of That around 5-1 for the RSA is superb value in my opinion. Barry G loves him, Jonjo loves him, he has delighted them with his fencing from day 1 and I cannot see how he's not favourite. This horse has won a World Hurdle and is second fav to a horse that couldn't win a potato race! No brainer for me - one of the bets of the week if he rocks up fit and well.
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Ha Ha bit harsh there delsie on NMH. I'm a huge fan of MOT but NMH's profile would win 9/10 RSA's. Still see MOT as fav come race day if not before. All the 5/1 now gone. You move markets bro. GL
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I think MOT (also entered in the JLT) is not as certain to run in the RSA as NMH plus his prep has not taken in a 24f race over fences as yet.
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I suppose he could win the JLT as well - but as it's the next day I think it's unlikely! But not impossible, impossible!
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delsie,
Indeed, winning the JLT is a simpler task than the RSA, I believe, even if L'Ami Serge turns up. It is really annoying with connections of most novices these days waiting till the last moment to confirm their entries. |
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MOT never ran over 3m before he won the WH. There is no question he will get the trip and will likely be a GC horse next year. NMH is certain to run and i give MOT a 95% chance of running. GL
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Surely the 4s with Hills about MOT for any race is the way to go?
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I wouldn't fancy MOT in the JLT myself, and Im a huge fan of the horse and he's my second biggest winner at the Festival. Think he might get taped for toe. Just cant see any scenario where he doesn't go for the RSA myself.
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Fair enough, personally think the added insurance of having any race is worth half a point, just because you can't see it doesn't mean it won't happen. Anyway I see this as a two horse race between NMH and MOT and can see this race cutting up.
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No absolutely John, wasn't disagreeing with your point.... If I were going to back him today, I agree that half a point is nothing.
But I've had everything I want on already tbh. |
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Well GL CCM I'd be happy with either.
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How many World Hurdle winners have won the RSA Chase?
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How many World Hurdle runners have won the RSA Chase?
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Is she running on diesel roger
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?
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How many World Hurdle winners have tried to win the RSA?
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Your terminal Roger 8min Ben the same post
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World Hurdle runners to have tried in recent years include
2014 - Smad Place (3rd to Solwhit in WH, jf for RSA Chase and failed) 2012 - Grands Crus (2nd to Big Bucks in WH, 6/5f for RSA and failed to even place) 2011 - Time For Rupert (2nd to Big Bucks in WH, 7/4f for RSA Chase and failed to even place) These are top class hurdle performers who have failed in the RSA in recent years. Look back through RSA Chase winners from 2015 backwards: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Chase#Winners_since_1946 Tell me what year you get to before you find one that hadn't gone to his novice chase season straight from his novice hurdle season. It's not a trick question - plenty of you will have better racing knowledge than me, I've gone back a fair few years and I can't see one. |
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Decalec, still no idea.
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MOT wasn't an age old hurdler when winning the WH, he was practically a novice when winning it, the stand out RSA contender for me and bundles of stamina too, we were only just beginning to see his stamina be utilized at the end of the WH, just look at how strong he is at the end of that race.
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Yes this debate was had on a thread a while ago Rog. As Duffy says, I think MoT is a bit of an exception with the way he has been campaigned and he doesn't fit the same profile as those you have mentioned who failed imo.
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He doesn't fit the same profile as the others - he's clearly a lot more fragile than them. Two of his four racing seasons he has only managed one start. That's convinced me, I'm in.
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I think it's pointless trying to convince each other as it's pretty clear where we both stand... I am not worried about the stats in the slightest, and to me he is the best horse in the race. You clearly don't think so. Let's see who is right in March!
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But even as a more fragile horse, he's won a Grade 1 at the Festival on his only visit.
And all three other times he's been to the course. I like that stat more tbh. I'm in. |
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Yep, let's reconvene on the evening of the 17th March!
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Roger apologies I mistook winner's for runner's
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It's not incievable here that we get a mini shock in this imo. Ok i backed MOT a while ago at 6s but that was any race and though am happy with that, both of them at the front of the market at this moment in time have question marks. What about a current outsider with a better than 50-60% chance of lining up and if lining up will be less than half current odds
 Drumacoo 25/1 Vyta Du Roc 33/1 this price looks to be going already so am off out in one minute to get it, have connections said something already?I've already backed Seeyouatmidnight at 33s, he was the first to be chopped after lto win. Can he keep up the good work and be sent to the RSA in good form Of the others i think theres a less than 50% chance given the 4 miler and jlt. But given the profiles of some of the winners, an out and out slogger often wins this. In fact the more i think about it, the more i like the profile of VDR, so see ya  |