Yes on the first one. Now if Vautour turns up i'd say there is a 75% chance Ruby rides him. Reason being that i can't see them running unless he is flying at home and the ground has "good" in the description. Would be very hard for Ruby to relinquish the ride if that was the case. Of course we could have a case where the ground goes against him after the Ryanair has run. Let's hope not this year.

BF Vautour 8/1 NRNB is a massive price. imo.

I think the only way Walsh would choose Vautour over Djakadam is if he has proved he stays well enough.
How does ho do that??

Would not discount anything with this yard!!
However I would be really shocked if Vautour went back to 2 miles.
His connections have said all along he's a stayer,and campaigned him accordingly.
If they are not convinced enough with the trip to run him in the Gold Cup,then I would think the Ryanair is where he will turn up at the festival.
Going back to 2 miles after all they have been saying,plus the fact they have the short priced fav,would not make much sense for them.

Mind you,from a racing perspective,it would make the Queen Mother a more interesting race.
Well certainly the build up anyway.

buddeliea,

Vautour and UDS are of different ownership; in my opinion the Champion Chase is a pretty hot race with seasoned jumpers, and UDS is still novicey; the Ryanair is less prestigious (perceptively), hence I'd like to think Vautour will be diverted to the Champion Chase instead nearer the time as I cannot see Ruby choosing Vautour over Djakadam with that daunting extra 2f uphill finish at Cheltenham.

Would be awfully interesting if UDS could not run at cheltenham.

(for the stupid, i am not wishing any harm to any horses)

The other consideration is that horses rarely win a Gold Cup having failed before. Like it or not, that is the case with Djakadam. I know he is that bit younger than the average GC horse, but as I say it is rare. I think it is still possible that Vautour will run and if he does Ruby will ride. Although he looked good in his reappearance surely Djakadam's price is skinny? Valseur Lido is no world beater after all. I would have thought that the Dons should both be ahead of him in the betting and I would rather take 12-1 Vautour than 3-1 Djakadam to be honest - certainly at this stage. That said, I fear that Djakadam's defeat last year might have left a scar on my reasoning!

8/1 on Vautour will definitely look like a big price on the day of the race if he runs, but that still doesn't alter the fact that he may not get home.  They might have to restrain him, but as an exuberant front runner, he might struggle to settle, wasting more energy and if he bowls along in front, he could be a sitting duck to a better stayer.

If he does run in the GC, they might have a headache deciding what tactics to employ.

I think Djakadam looked so good because of the shorter trip to be honest. Agree with Budd re Ruby wanting to keep them apart - and I think he does play a massive part in these decisions. However, if Vautour does run I can't see Ruby getting off him after all the things he said about the horse. He would just hate it if he had to listen to Townend telling us that they always thought  'this is a special horse' after he cruises round.

I think the Kauto/Denman choice taught him a lot. He didn't make the same mistake when the Faugheen/Fly no-brainer came along.

Does anyone else think that Djakadam may be ground dependent?  All of his best form appears to be on soft/heavy ground and unless there is rain during festival week (as there was last year), it may be too quick for him in my opinion.  Vautour on the other hand will clearly need it quick if he is to go the gold cup route.

I would also be slightly concerned as to whether Djakadam is rated by the stable in the same terms as Vautour.  It is easy to forget that he went off 14/1 for the JLT and Ruby deserted him for Felix Younger!  Ok, he was only 5 so perhaps they thought it was a year too early but they swerved taking UDS to cheltenham early in his career so they have form for looking after horses if they want to take their time.

Having said that,The  point re the ground may be a valid one and could possibly make a decision a tad easier I guess.
Djakadam  does have a lot of form on soft ground and not much on decent ground,although I cannot recall connections saying he's ground dependant.
Anyway I guess we just have to wait and see.

We have seen horses not just stay 3 miles but 3 miles 2 furlongs on other courses but even on good going they have failed to see out the Cheltenham hill. Years ago the great Pendil was a  brilliant King George winner but he got caught close home by the high class plodder that was the Dickler. One Man won a King George and a Hennessy but a good ish going Gold Cup was too much of a test of stamina.

The Gold Cup is of course a great race but it does not always produce the champion 3 miler. That's because its not a 3 mile race. It's a brutal stamina test run at a merciless gallop all the way and anything with stamina doubts gets found out.

With Vautour there is only limited evidence. He has run 13 times and lost just four times: 1st & 2nd ever runs in French bogs, once when pasted by Clarcam (found to be not right), and last time out.

Last time Vautour was allowed to go at his own natural pace, jumping past Silviniaco Conte at the 11th, still going best 4,3 and 2 out but running out of stamnina close home and getting caught by Cue Card who was not exactly quickening himself. Now anything is possible and maybe he can be made a deal fitter for Gold Cup day and that maybe would do the trick. However, the evidence of Kempton is that he would not reverse the form with Cue Card over the Gold Cup course and distance. If he did not get 3 miles even on soft to heavy going at Kempton, experience suggests he lacks Gold Cup stamina.

Vautour was a superb winner of the Supreme, making all a a quick pace before quickening away on the run in. He is not a plodder but a speed horse. In my view he is a natural for the Champion Chase.

I'd like to see Vautour in the GC - better prices for his opponents - but I do not believe Ruby will ditch Djakadam in view of Vautour's head start and beating he received from Cue Card, another runner not certain to cherish an additional 2f and uphill finish.

Don Cossack for me, more so if Don Poli is ridden by Bryan Cooper.

Think you are spot on Duffy. They won't want to run Vautour if Ruby doesn't want to ride him imo. Exactly as you say, if Ruby doesn't want him in the GC, then why go for that race?

Exactly EO. That's how I've seen it all along tbh. And not only Ruby. RR and WPM could end up with both as well. That's what it will make it even easier for Ruby to talk them into that plan.

U could be spot on with Djak/V ruby analysis EO. I do like V for GC but have gone nrnb..

Thing is re the ground,it's not likely to be proper good ground,as they will always water to try and get at least soft side of good.
If needs be they will water during the week.
I don't see any problem with Djakadam and the ground,like said before he ran ok on decent ground behind Don Cossack considering the hard race he had at Cheltenham. Yes,he has most of his form on soft,but that don't mean he can't act on better.
Would be interested in where you heard that quote re the going for him,must confess I have never heard anything.

Vautour will win the Ryanair - Gold Cup talk is piffle.

If any of yous seen an interview with ruby when asked if he could ride the KG again would he do anything different you could see by the look in his face he knew he c0cked up big time on Vautour, he simply asked him to go and win the race far too early (4f from home) he said if he could ride it again he'd have got a breeder into Vautour 4 out and ask him to go about his business 1 out, the horse was knackered because basically he didn't get a breeder into him the whole way around Kempton,the gun was put to his head far too early, run the KG again and he'd beat CC as he likes,
When ridden in the right way this fella will stay 3m plus on his head.

will djakadam and vautour both run,never get the impression the owner likes running two