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"I wasn't happy with him this morning," Mullins revealed. "He might still run later in the week but we will have to see how he goes''
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This is going to be the worry with the horse going forward, it seems sporadically that something goes wrong with the horse, mullins alluded to him having excuses for his poor run over Christmas, his muscles being all wrong!! but he (mullins) was at Kempton that day, implying that if he'd clapped eyes on him pre-race he'd not have run him.......seems that perhaps something similar has occurred.......a concern for anyone who wants to punt him long term for next year...you'll have a concern right up to the tapes going up with him.
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To run in the Amlin Chase next month then aimed at King George.
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Massive fan of the horse daveygfc,but will have its work cut out beating coneygree round Kempton,and has thrown two bad runs in around Xmas on bad ground.
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Willie Mullins says in the At The Races Stable Tour he'd go for the John Durkan and then the King George. Ricci obviously wants his horses running in the UK more so we'll see if Mullins listens and goes to Ascot.
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another change of a plan now with the bonus announcement ?
cant see willie wanting to start him off over 3 miles thou, next few weeks could be interesting |
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Heinz +3,4,5,6 e/w accums
Vautour Gold Cup 4/1 Milsean NH Chase 14/1 Tycoon Prince Albert Bartlett 12/1 Douvan JLT Novices Chase 11/1 Pylonthepressure Neptune 25/1 Black Hercules RSA 33/1 |
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Catch me if you can.
Not my personal fancy but Milsean 16s to win any race at sky bet if you fancy it. |
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Tks. No a/c
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Hoping for a good run from Ptit Zig tomorrow - backed him at big(ish) odds for the Ryanair, so if he can get within 10 lengths or so of Vautour, giving him 5lbs, I would be happy with that.
Think he is better than what he showed in the JLT last year. |
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The issue that has been raised today and without wanting to go overboard about it(but probably doing so) is that for Vautour to be able to fulfill his massive potential and win the races necessary to be able to do so, I think that he'll have to rely solely on having to fully stay the GC trip because that jumping out to his right has to stop him winning KG's....if he is going to go out to his left around right handed tracks and struggles to get home in GC trips.....then over these distances there is nothing really worthy of him to achieve what he should be.
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facking hell ladcrokes the horrible waste of space have cut him for the Gold Cup on the back of that
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He won't win a King George or a gold cup on that today.
he should be beating Ptit Zig more convincing than that on those terms today. One thing for sure he's no value for either race. The King George will probably have Don Cossack and possibly Coneygree,he ain't beating either of those imo. |
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Just to clarify what I was saying, I'm not knocking him or his ability, I think that the edging out to his left is what gets him beat in the KG, not the opposition, if I knew that it was a one off today I would be on him as I think he'll stay around Kempton and don't think another horse would touch him.....it's just I worry that the tendency to go out to his left is probably a trait that will remain and that has to seriously compromise him and consequently brings other horses back to him ability wise.
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Bit harsh imo budd. That was nothing more than a pipe opener. Sure WPM has left loads to work on and he's still beaten a very good horse who was race fit, on his seasonal bow. I've seen nothing to put me off his chances for any race later this season tbh.
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what about the left at practically all fences...it wasn't drastic today but that was probably because he wasn't under pressure today....has to be a worry, it would restrict the horse from hitting any sort of rhythm in his races as well as negating any sort of benefit from jumping cleanly as he wouldn't be meeting his fences with momentum.....all this against better horses going right handed and he'd have to be even better than the best horse in training superstar that I already think he is.!!
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nice horse Ptit Zig, but not a very good one and surely not near the top branch of chasers. But with a clear path over the last fence he would've beaten Vautour. Now, of course Vautour is bound to come on from this run but I cannot imagine him being good enough for either Don or Coneygree over 3 miles, those 2 are too far in front. Even Cue Card back to his former best now should be more fancied at the prices.
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Yes that was the only negative I took from the race Duffy. How many times has he run right handed though? Can't be many? Maybe twice at Punch? First run over fences right handed and maybe he will learn a bit from that today?
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Forget Ptit Zig, the left at every fence was what brought him closer, that emphasises my point perfectly, if it was the other way round Vautour would have won with his head in his chest by plenty because as well as he travelled today he couldn't profit from it at his fences as he did in the JLT, where he gained a length or two at each one with his jumping rhythm he was able to get into.....when he's jinking out to his left he's no longer able to gain any advantage and therefore those fences that would otherwise enable him to force the opposition earlier, if the JLT was run the other way around, a similar thing to day would happen.
Going forward I would like to hear something from connections regarding his jumping out to the left because it is a serious problem and will stop him reaching the heights he is capable of, certainly right handed anyhow. |
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Ruby didn't seem to be worried, he said the Ascot fences are not as straight and it looks exaggerated on camera the jumping to the left as the angle of the fences are inclined to the right a bit. He also said Vautour has to improve an awful lot to win the KG.. we'll see if he'll find a dozen pounds to put it up to the Don.
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Catch., yeh maybe a bit harsh on the basis it was his first run,but receiving 5lb and beating Ptit Zig a couple of lengths is in my view a long way from winning a top class race against the calibre of opposition around this season.
He's rank bad value for both the KG and GC. The KG is right handed,he needs to not do that yesterday with his jumping.,prove he stays 3m,and beat the likes of DC and possibly Coneygree, The GC is another 2 furlongs so more to prove. He is in my view priced up on people getting carried away with winning a novice race impressively. Uxizandre did the same thing over the same sort of distance against the senior horses,and nothing like what we are getting with Vautour followed. I guess some horses,maybe connections,are more popular than others. |
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I still think Vautor is a monster on good ground. His best 2 performances were on goodish ground at cheltenham.
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I think the ground is key. Good ground at Cheltenham last year and he beat ptit zig half the track..,
Agree with Budd though,he is poor value for the KG and GC. From memory the king george has been pretty soft ground the last few years and we dont know if he's going to stay 3 miles plus yet. |
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Well yes,it's possible he will be as good as some obviously think he is.
Those 2 races you mention were a 2m novice hurdle and a 2 and half m novice chase. What is ahead is a totally different ball game. yesterday, however one looks at it , was not convincing for what lies ahead. Don Cossack has achieved so much more,yet not as popular it seems.!with bookies and pundits. I have to wonder why. |
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Behave. There's surely not one person who follows racing never mind on this forum who doesn't know that Ricci owned horses are trained by Willie Mullins to peak in the Spring. Faugheen got away with it due to poor opposition last year but didn't this year. He will come on at least 8lb from that re-appearance. The same applies to Vautour. Ground aside, he beat Ptit Zig out of sight off level weights at Cheltenham yet only beat him a length in receipt of 5lb yesterday on his seasonal re-appearance. Surely I don't need to remind anyone that Vautour was well beaten on Boxing Day last year and everyone hit the panic buttons. The only thing that should be debated re Vautour is if he stays or not. Paddy Power now a standout 6/1 for the Gold Cup, I've learned to take note after the last 2 years of dismissing it.
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Dismissing what Paterson?
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yeh,that's fair point,ground can be key for a lot of horses,he could be an absolute superstar given his ideal conditions .
I think we still have to find out exactly what those conditions are. Good ground probably,but what distance? |
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Apologies should have been clearer. Last couple of years I've dismissed Paddy's standout prices. All last year their prices pointed to Vautour going for the JLT and Un De Sceaux for the Arkle. Given their direct link to the yard, any significant prices with regards to a horse in Mullins yard should be taken into consideration. It just so happens they are a standout 4/1 Vautour Ryanair and 6/1 Gold Cup so nothing significant at the moment. But their prices are worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses.
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well his jumping can be debated now in context of winning the King George,as well as his staying.
Yes,he will almost certainly be at his best come March,but to take current prices on a horse that has another 5 furlongs to travel on unknown ground,against the calibre of opposition around this season? No thanks. |
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Not for me either and not once have I stated that. I just think it would be unwise to rule him out as a danger given he's fully unexposed as a stayer. As a punter and racing fan it makes sense to look at the bigger picture and not dismiss any opposition on the back of a 50% fit seasonal reappearance.
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The message before Vautour's run yesterday was not to expect fireworks, not that it was ever going to be the case on a seasonal reappearance. Ruby then reiterated that message afterwards.
Walsh said: "He made a mistake at the bottom of the hill second time around and he was a bit fresh going to post and rusty in the race. Ptit Zig had that match fitness and our horse was big and rusty. He'll improve a hell of a lot for today. I like horses that can win like that when only half fit." |
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Oh absolutely not dismiss him on a reappearance run,of course.
He's just not value for either the KG or GC. That's pretty much what I am saying. I have always been wary of taking too much notice of jockeys comments,although in this case the evidence points to Walsh making sense with those commentsl. Look he is no doubt a goodun,just not sure what he's best at yet. And not sure if he is as good as others around at distances he's not ran at. If his prices reflected that I would be more interested,I don't think his price does reflect that. |
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how could anyone know if the horse was half fit, unless you work at the stable.
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I try and not listen to jockeys, especially Ruby regarding horses targets or what they are capable of. Was only this time last year he was saying Champagne Fever could stay 4 miles if he wanted to. Look how that one worked out. However, Ibrahima Sonko, you can't honestly tell me that wasn't a half fit Vautour yesterday? He looked big and he certainly didn't run to form. Mullins, like many trainers don't train ther best horses for a stroll round Ascot in November with the schedule they have planned for the rest of the season. Do I think Vautour will stay 3 miles round Kempton? Possibly. Do I think Vautour will stay 3m2 round Cheltenham with the hill? No. If that's the case, he won't be the first and certainly won't be the last to do so. Conti the prime example.
Bearing in mind Ibrahima, look at Djakadam's run in last years Hennesy compared to his run in the Gold Cup. Did anyone think he was a Gold Cup horse after that run? Absolutely not. |
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I think what happened yesterday was that the feeling of invincibility that this horse had given many took a jolt. Certainly, his fencing was not in the same league as at Cheltenham. Agree completely with buddeliea, it would be folly to write him off for anything but his prices for the big contests have hardly eased and you'd now say he has a bit to prove, whereas a summary dismissal of Ptit Zig would have kept the aura intact.
If you compare his run yesterday with those this season of Don Cossack, Coneygree, Road to Riches and, now Cue Card, he's the one that really needs to improve. |
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For me little changed yesterday. I think he's better left handed and gave away several lengths during the course of the race whereas at Cheltenham he gained ground. I'd also be reasonably confident that he wasn't near fully tuned up yesterday. On the other hand Nicholls horse was well primed, was race fit and was carrying a degree of confidence. They left well behind a 160 rated horse. I'd have him as a strong favourite for the Ryanair. The jury remains out on the gold cup with me still just leaning towards it being too far.
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To me Vautour is a stone better on good ground and will struggle to beat coneygree on winter ground,add that to losing a length at every fence and the horse is no value in the king George.
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Vautour was back after 7 months, needed the run,not fully fit,jumped left and still beat Ptit Zigg who Paul Nichols said was as fit as he will ever get him.
Willie will have time to try and correct the above by the KG. Also important to consider that last year how Vautour performed at Christmas had little bearing on where he would run at Cheltenham. This year is completely different and I expect Willie to have Vautour fitter and better come December 26th. |
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Fit or not fit, ptit zig or not, neither of those things means anything, the fundamental issue to consider is the edging out left because if he is fully fit in the KG but still does that he'll win nothing, jumping left wasn't caused through being unfit or because of ptit zig, what we need to know is why did he do it, I'm not buying the way the fences were angled, if that were the case, we'd see it a lot more from other horses....if he jumps straight in the KG then he'll win IMO, but I'll be waiting until he's jumped a couple first before betting him.
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Having watched the race back he jumps 11 straight, 1 badly to the left and 5 slightly to the left. Interestingly, Ptit Zig and Third Intention followed the exact same line on the 14th (4.26) which makes me think the fence angling may have some truth to it because both jumped straight enough the rest of the time.
I think fitness will be fundamental to KG success. He won't get away with being unfit and jumping slightly left but at full fitness with a bit more prep I don't think it will be an issue. |