Lads willie is a master.  Vautour was fresh and free in front.  Got a good workout and now has 5 weeks to Kempton.  No issues with this jumping left rubbish.  Dont think the others will get near him in KG.  Wouldnt listen to anything Ruby has to say.  Knows fup all and has very little say about anything other than race riding, especially after the Faugheen affair......

Vautour is better on good ground and won't beat coneygree or Don cossack on anything worse than good to soft

Another thing to consider is the fact that Vautour is not going to have it all his own way up front as he has in his last few races.

Vautour faces serious questions in tackling big-race targets
VAUTOUR made his much-anticipated return to the racecourse at Ascot on Saturday and while he duly won, for me his performance has raised significant concerns about his future targets.

Before dealing with the performance itself, it is perhaps appropriate to discuss what was to be reasonably expected of Vautour last Saturday. As was discussed here last week in the context of Faugheen, owner Rich Ricci made it clear on the Final Furlong Podcast last season that it had been decided by the Closutton team to very much train Ricci’s horses with a view to peaking for the spring meetings. This intention had very clear results on the track, with the likes of Faugheen, Djakadam, Douvan and Vautour all taking significant jumps forward in terms of performance at the Cheltenham Festival having not always impressed in the build up to it.

Indeed, Vautour was perhaps the most striking example of this, with his performance level going through the roof in his scintillating victory in the JLT Novices’ Chase. Thus, with that plan having worked so well last season and with Willie Mullins being a well-established trainer of habit, one can safely presume that the intention is the same this season, an assumption that is given weight by Faugheen’s performance on his return to action.

With this in mind, even though Vautour was receiving 5lb from his main market rival Ptit Zig despite being rated 12lb superior to him, it was perhaps overly optimistic to expect him to run to close to his best and see off that rival as easily as the weights suggested he should. However, even considering Vautour’s lack of peak fitness as well as making a generous allowance for the possibility of Ptit Zig having produced a lifetime best effort, Vautour was well below his best in only seeing him off by a workmanlike 1¾ lengths. While that in itself is forgivable in the circumstances, it was the way Vautour shaped in doing it that that raises the most pertinent questions about his immediate future.

His next target is the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. That race will introduce a new variable in that it will be run over the longest trip he has ever tackled, but before dealing with that, it is worth discussing another variable that now must be considered significant.

Last Saturday was the first time Vautour has raced right-handed over fences and one would have to be concerned at how he handled it. He consistently jumped out to the left and while his jumping was characterised by an exuberance to the point of being a bit airy at times during his novice chase campaign, he didn’t always impress at Ascot and got dangerously low when making a heart-stopping error at the seventh from home.

When one looks back at his career as a whole whilst paying particular attention to this aspect of his jumping, the concern only grows. While it is subtle enough to be barely noticeable in his starts at left-handed tracks, in all of Vautour’s starts for Willie Mullins, he has shown a tendency to jump to his left at times. That tendency has unsurprisingly been more evident in his starts at right-handed tracks and as well as his below-par performance at Ascot on Saturday, it is worth noting that the two least impressive performances of his novice hurdle campaign came on the only two occasions he raced right-handed at Punchestown.

On the first occasion he made very hard work of seeing off Western Boy in a Grade 2 novice hurdle and then produced a workmanlike display when sent off at 1/3 for a Grade 1 in the spring. It is worth remembering that at the time of the latter performance, Mullins suggested that an illness in the build-up to the race may have negatively affected Vautour’s performance, but with a trend starting to emerge regarding his performances at right-handed tracks, perhaps there was more to it than an interrupted preparation.

While the degree to which he jumps out to his left is far from alarming in itself, the fact that he hasn’t been at his best in all his three starts at right-handed tracks suggests that it may be a performance inhibitor for him. He has been sent off at 1/4, 1/3 and 2/5 for those right-handed starts, but he will face a far stiffer task in what is shaping up to be a vintage renewal of the King George VI Chase at Kempton and any aversion to going right-handed is likely to be ruthlessly exposed.

That isn’t the only question that Vautour is going to have to answer in the King George, as the three-mile trip will be the longest distance he has been asked to tackle in a race. For me, the exuberant style with which Vautour has always travelled and jumped with has marked him down as one that will be seen to best effect at two-and-a-half miles or shorter. Of course, class can overcome many things and the flat track and the often relatively sound surface (it has been good-to-soft or firmer in seven of the last nine renewals) makes the King George a very appealing contest for a top-class chaser that is stepping up to three miles for the first time.

While some have speculated that Vautour may be ridden more quietly in a bid to get the trip, such speculation is almost certainly ill-advised, as Willie Mullins has often made the point that he doesn’t like to interfere with a horse’s way of going no matter what the change in variable. While this promises to make for a tremendous spectacle at Kempton, one can’t help but feel that Team Vautour will be hoping that Coneygree will not be supplemented for the King George, as he perhaps represents the biggest danger to Vautour going forward.

Clearly, Coneygree is a highly-talented chaser, but as well as having his ability to fear, he has the potential to be a significant foil for Vautour in terms of his running style. Like Vautour, Coneygree is a front runner, but he is a different type of front runner. He is a relentless grinder, setting a merciless mid-race tempo that takes many horses out of their comfort zones prior to drawing on his seemingly endless reserves of stamina to see off his rivals late on. The relative test of speed that the King George is compared to the Cheltenham Gold Cup will certainly help Vautour’s cause, but if Coneygree is indeed supplemented for it, not only is he likely to remove any possibility of an uncontested lead for Vautour, he will also ensure that every ounce of his stamina is thoroughly tested.

Looking beyond that, the long-term targeting of the Cheltenham Gold Cup with Vautour is worth discussing too. I have never liked the idea of Vautour running in the Gold Cup. The race is a unique test of stamina that has found out plenty of horses that had no problem with three miles at other tracks, but went to jelly on the run-in of the extended three miles and two furlongs of the Gold Cup.

Of course, there have been exceptions to this in past Gold Cups, with classy three-milers lasting home through pure ability, guts and often a lack of top-class opposition. It takes a true superstar such as Kauto Star to overcome a lack of suitability to the Gold Cup test, yet still win an up-to-scratch renewal of the race.

Now, Vautour is clearly a horse of exceptional talent and could easily be up to winning an ordinary Gold Cup despite not relishing the test of stamina the race presents. However, he has been unfortunate to step into open company in a season that promises to be the most competitive in the staying chase division since the height of the Kauto Star/Denman era. Don Cossack, Don Poli, Djakadam, Road To Riches and a revitalised Cue Card have injected a serious dose of quality into the division, but the aforementioned Coneygree could well be the biggest challenge for Vautour due to his running style. That is even more applicable if rain arrives at Cheltenham prior to the Gold Cup.

In my view, Vautour has the ability to win either Queen Mother Champion Chase or, it goes without saying, the much less prestigious Ryanair Chase, and would be better suited to those tests than the Gold Cup. However, the admirable boldness of his connections in targeting the Gold Cup despite the unknowns will make what is already an exceptionally exciting division even more engaging. It promises to be one of the main talking points of the season and while I find myself in the pessimistic camp, I can’t wait to see Vautour both at Kempton and at Cheltenham.

Yep,a darn good read and very interesting.

"While some have speculated that Vautour may be ridden more quietly in a bid to get the trip, such speculation is almost certainly ill-advised, as Willie Mullins has often made the point that he doesn’t like to interfere with a horse’s way of going no matter what the change in variable."

Imagine Vautour going toe to toe with the likes of Coneygree in the KG or GC? No way it'll happen. The only reason Vautour has made the running so far is because he needs a decent gallop to allow him to jump and travel more easily. He'll get that in both the KG and GC. If stamina is a real concern for Willie then he has no choice but to get Ruby to try to settle him behind the leaders. imo

Back or lay Vautour in King George?

On his best performance in the JLT he should get ahead of Smad Place, Irish Cavalier & Ballynagour. But he has a few to find with Conti and Al Ferof, and alot to find with Don and Cue Card. If he stays the trip he can get at least 5th spot and if Mullins is right about him he can challenge Don and Cue for supremacy. I would've rather seen him take an ascending path like Don has for the past year instead of going straight into a Grade 1 for his first race in open company, especially a strong one like the KG where all horses come fully tuned up. This can easily break him and his future prospects, even for the Ryanair. I wouldn't lay him as Mullins hype talk about this horse and Douvan is something to take notice of.

*should* get that on form, if he stays and if he won't jump left again. Problem is he tackles battled-hardened rivals for first time in his life and could make or break him, like it happened with Champagne Fever, so even that 5th spot could come at a much higher cost. 1 run against very easy opposition won't prepare them for a race like KG with experienced and much classier opponents than on the prep race. Lets not forget what happened just a year ago with a horse that was assigned almost the same kind of potential from Mullins and Walsh. Couple of open company races till March would've done much more to Vautour chances in the GC than this huge target assignment. Probably RR is to blame more here than Mullins but if they get it right and the horse wins then Mullins will get the credit.

I always have the GC market open when a contending race is on, you can often nick some money, also they will be an over reaction on whatever happens.

stevo, you should try to give up on passion when betting and try to read the entire argumentation if you want to have a discussion instead of a banter. I said that on form he's entitled to at least 5th and if Mullins is right about him being a GC contender he could challenge Don and Cue, the former fell 2 out when just starting his challenge and it seemed similar to Punchestown where he did the same thing and left Djakadam for dead after the last. Vautour proved capable of mixing in open company but as I said how much would this take out of him in the future, remember Champagne Fever? We'll see in his next outing. Good luck with your betting!

You're making up stuff, what I said is just 3-4 posts above "if he stays the trip he *should* get at least 5th spot based on his past form" and if Mullins was right he will "challenge Don and Cue for supremacy" He would've been 3rd if Don hadn't fall but my point was that we've seen last season with Fever that when you pitch them directly among the top staying horses it might do them more harm than good for the future, so hopefully he can improve on this run rather than do a CF. Mullins will get him peak for Cheltenham but so will the rest of the trainers with their horses so it balances things out.

Willie Mullins is indeed a very shrewd man. Which is why he will want Un De Sceaux in the Champion and Vautour in the Ryanair!

Duffy. If Vautour was mine I'd run him in the Raynair, because it's the perfect race for the horse.

I don't really buy the fact the CC is that much more prestigious than the Ryanair. Just because it's newer.

May let you have score on lol.

Only way I see him line up in the CC is if something happens to rule out UDS. Mullins will run the risk of upsetting UDS owners if all of a sudden he re-routes Vautour to the CC at this stage having been campaigned to date with GC in mind. Throw in the prospect of Douvan entering the CC picture next season for Ricci and I would rule out that possibility completely. If your getting 10/1 NRNB then that's a big price as Id expect Walsh to ride if he takes to the start and his SP would likely be about 5/1 imo.

So he's definitely going to the Ryanair then trigger3?

Ive found his odds for the various races a bit confusing too. Struggling to work out how much the books dont rate his chances of winning a gold cup or dont rate his chances of turning up in one.
All ifs, but what price would people expect him to go off if he turned up to a gold cup with ruby on board, someone else on djakadam, the dons and cc all lining up?

So do you think that means the books think hes 50/50 ish to go for gold cup?