Cheltenham Festival
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Does not look a very deep race at present,due to lack of decent UK novices over 2 miles so far. Appears Lami Serge will be best UK challenger to the Irish.
Douvan and Lami Serge go there without another race, both very solid form in book. Next best in market is Alvisio Ville ( Deloitte entry ) has only won maiden hurdle so far.
Then its 16/1 and upwards bar the top three, which brings in Silver Concorde ( bumper winner at Festival ) but beaten at odds on 1st hurdle start. Then a few of Mr Mullins all
with Deloitte entries, Nichols Canyon,Shaneshill, Tell Us More,McKinlay. Obviously they all wont turn up for this,expect Shaneshill and Tell Us More to go Neptune route.
The Deloitte should be pointer where they go at Festival.
Personally backed Lami Serge while back at decent odds, and Douvan in double with Tell Us More in Neptune? Have been looking for lively outsider to back for while keep looking at Emerging Market, Nicholls novice fell 2nd last at Ascot in Lami Serge race. Was entered for Betfair Hurdle, but not anymore. Will wait for entry before backing around 33/1 at present.
Douvan and Lami Serge go there without another race, both very solid form in book. Next best in market is Alvisio Ville ( Deloitte entry ) has only won maiden hurdle so far.
Then its 16/1 and upwards bar the top three, which brings in Silver Concorde ( bumper winner at Festival ) but beaten at odds on 1st hurdle start. Then a few of Mr Mullins all
with Deloitte entries, Nichols Canyon,Shaneshill, Tell Us More,McKinlay. Obviously they all wont turn up for this,expect Shaneshill and Tell Us More to go Neptune route.
The Deloitte should be pointer where they go at Festival.
Personally backed Lami Serge while back at decent odds, and Douvan in double with Tell Us More in Neptune? Have been looking for lively outsider to back for while keep looking at Emerging Market, Nicholls novice fell 2nd last at Ascot in Lami Serge race. Was entered for Betfair Hurdle, but not anymore. Will wait for entry before backing around 33/1 at present.
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Emerging Market ffs 6/7 furlong horse on flat not sure it will stay. Should be Emerging Talent.
Any other fancies or thoughts, not long to go now getting excited!! |
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Really struggled with this race,apart from the obvious 2.
Not much happening at all.Still unclear on a lot of targets as well....muddy to say the least. Leaving it alone at present I am. |
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jollyallan ??
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Alvisio Ville has been a little bit uneasy on here for a week or so.
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Bonnie, looked at Jollyallan good engine cant jump very well,if improving jumping e/w squeak.
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I've backed Identity Thief for this at a big price. Think if he goes close in Deloitte he and McKinlay will end up here. TUM and Outlander in the Neptune.
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don't know why - will be interesting if shaneshill drops back in trip, i didn't think it likely but maybe he might
douvan very short, lami serge very solid imo |
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Think Nichols Canyon will go for Supreme so Shaneshill for Neptune where he can have Ruby in Saddle. Ruby will defo ride Douvan in Supreme which I think will make the decision for them.
But I agree, I'd be keen on Shaneshill in a Supreme. |
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Have backed Shaneshill to win any race like some on here at 8/1, would need to jump better than lto if running in a Supreme.
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mullins seems stacked in the neptune so wonder whether walsh can pick up one of the gigginstown horses...just a thought and i haven't wagered but could see shaneshill in a supreme...personally douvan should be running in neptune imo...we will see i'm sure the deloitte will tell us more for sure
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Nice play on words Harry, Tell Us More hopefully goes Neptune and wins.
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No More Heroes disappointed me lto which let the Shaneshill form down a bit.
Then again the ground was probably too soft for Shaneshill in that race, and lto it was probably too quick for No More Heroes. |
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I see Jollyallan is entered in a race at Sandown at the weekend. Does anyone know for sure if the Supreme is the target at the Festival?
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According to trainer Jollyallan target is Supreme,re sportinglife.com yesterday see website.
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Well Chief in case you missed it Elliot reported that NMH scoped badly after Sundays race, If that's true I'd write the last run off.
Jollyallan & L'ami Serge would be my 2 at the moment for the Supreme, The last day Douvan beat some stayers and they was all bunched up coming off the final bend which to me makes the form dubious, I'd not be taking short prices based on that myself. |
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Didn't see that. Cheers mate
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No worries at all, Was delighted myself as been backing NMH for AB for a good while now.
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op ...sILVER CONCORDE BEATEN ON 2ND START, NOT 1ST.
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it was his first over hurdles...other was a flat race
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I've also got Shaneshill any race at cheltenham at 8s and was interested to see what race he might run in. He is entered in the race on the 8th February @ Leopardstown which hopefully he will run in. I really felt he would be near the top of the Mullins tree this year as a novice and Cheltenham recent Champion bumper form has stood up really well in the following years festival races. I would prefer him to run in the neptune which looks a much weaker race to me at the moment.
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Obviously The Supreme is a hurdle race Howdi,then again Pricewise Arkle selection had his prep on a/w last week lol.
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Thanks Stevo. I think I'll have a little bet on him before Saturday. He seems like the value at the moment to me.
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Shaneshill looks a 2 miler to me but Nichols Canyon in the same ownership means he will probably go for the Neptune.
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Which of JP's will go and be the big gamble?
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Alvisio Ville I would imagine. Was tipped before his debut and was told he was working like a monster
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wonder whether willie will run morning run here getting the allowances, she has always shown plenty of speed for me and looks very classy...50/1 poke i see, if only we had a crystal ball with these mullins runners
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usually the first race I get involved in antepost wise, not had a bet on this race yes. I feel theres going to be a shock.....
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no bet here either - agree alleged looks very open race trying to form a book without knowing what is going to run isn't easy tbh
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hardest race this yr if im honest
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Perfectly happy with my bet on Lami Serge at present,trying to find saver but difficult at moment. May back Lami again closer to day at least hes heading to race.
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it is tough - i fancy a bet but we won't know till the day now who will run with mullins having a gatling gun full of ammunition ready to fire, what can we do in regards betting, i can't i'd sooner take an under price nearer the day, for now all we can do is speculate
he could have 5/6 here douvan, shaneshill, morning run and a few of others all with a realistic chance would love him to run this morning run at a price getting the allowances rather than take on annie power, she has got some speed this mare, also i'm starting to think this maybe be the race for shaneshill as well morning run down to run sunday, willie won the supreme with the mare tourist attraction |
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I think too many getting bit carried away with all the Mullins horses tbh,could be missing out as he aint gonna be winning every other race as some seem to think.
Douvan obviously danger to all but short price at moment,maybe bigger on day, who knows what else he may run? As you say best to wait till after Deliotte, may have better idea of running plans? |
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ye very annoying in regards mullins but am afraid he has fancied runners and until we know which ones for sure, its hard to form a solid book and evaluate there chances
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If according to ruby douvan has more gets than faugheen then I believe he will do a vatour and romp it
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I get the impression they think Douvan is something pretty special, if he's anywhere near as good as they think it would be foolhardy to oppose him given the exploits of Faugheen and Vautour who were talked of in similar terms last year.
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I wouldn't be so hopeful of another Faugheen; sometimes they wrongly judge horses ability, look at Outlander last week.
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The 115 Sandown tomorrow looks the most interesting race of the day to me. Jollyallan and Bristol De Mai are right at the top of my watchlist for the novice hurdles in the Festival.
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timtin
30 Jan 15 15:28 Joined: 04 May 12 | Topic/replies: 94 | Blogger: timtin's blog I wouldn't be so hopeful of another Faugheen; sometimes they wrongly judge horses ability, look at Outlander last week. i don't think they missed judged outlanders ability, they backed it from 10-1 to 5-1 on the day |
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El Namoose is an outsider I've backed at a price in this, ran better than finishing position suggests in last years bumper. Been kept away from deep winter ground and runs Sunday.
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