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Supreme Novices Hurdle

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Replies: 273
By:
CR7
When: 30 Jan 15 16:52

Jan 30, 2015 -- 1:33PM, tyronesam wrote:


If according to ruby douvan has more gets than faugheen then I believe he will do a vatour and romp it


said he has more gears then vautour not faugheen didnt he?

By:
timtin
When: 30 Jan 15 17:01
`they` as in jockeys and trainers. If both had known Outlander was better, Ruby would've been on it...
By:
stevo1
When: 30 Jan 15 23:51
Is Outlander not a Giggy horse? Interesting little race tomorrow would be keen on Jollyallan,but his hurdling needs to have improved.
By:
oneyallbeenwaiting4
When: 31 Jan 15 02:59
Jollyallan is the only danger to Lami Serge, hope you took the 25s, if not, still 20s until he dispatches them tomorrow.
By:
CVByrne
When: 31 Jan 15 09:04
oneyallbeenwaiting4 31 Jan 15 02:59 Joined: 04 Jun 12 | Topic/replies: 142 | Blogger: oneyallbeenwaiting4's blog
Jollyallan is the only danger to Lami Serge


Do you really believe that? You're dismissing all of the other runners. You do know there is racing in Ireland.
By:
oneyallbeenwaiting4
When: 31 Jan 15 09:58
There is? Well alvisio ville, douvan and the rest of the no hopers would be better off running there.
By:
buddeliea
When: 31 Jan 15 09:59
oh dear Laugh
By:
wellchief
When: 31 Jan 15 10:44
I'm not really expecting todays Jollyallan/Bristol de Mai race to shake the market up too much.  Bristol not entered in the Supreme, and I just cannot see Peace and Co running in it, no matter what happens today.

It's far from a two horse race, but I'd be very surprised if Douvan or L'Ami Serge didn't win, but both are not at prices that interest me.

Alvisio Ville looks to have a huge amount of potential, but his price is pretty laughable imo.  He's finished 3rd in a bumper and then won a maiden hurdle - albeit impressively.  Silver Concorde is twice the price, yet has won a Champion Bumper and second in the Punchestown equivalent, so if I was having a bet, at the prices, he would be the one.
By:
buddeliea
When: 31 Jan 15 11:07
Probably right Chief, but IF the owner wants another in the Supreme it will be Peace and Co or Vercingetorix.
As you say BDM not entered,not sure what that means in terms of his horses,may mean hes number 1 in the pecking order.
By:
CVByrne
When: 31 Jan 15 11:14
There is about as much chance Peace and Co runs in the Supreme as there is Black Herculese, both are entered, neither will run. You don't move the short priced favourite for the Triumph into what halving his chance by being 2nd fav in Supreme. It failed the time Henderson did it before with Binocular.

I always find it odd when threads go wildly off on pure speculation. Surely the horses who are 99% going for the race should be the focus of the discussion.

Just as a general point not specific to this thread, but I find a huge flaw of racing discussion on forums where what you've bet on is more important than giving an honest opinion. So many threads are xyz should run here (because this is the race I've backed him for). Vautour being the biggest example recently.
By:
buddeliea
When: 31 Jan 15 11:28
Its not wildly off mate its discussing possible runners in the Supreme and horses entered are possible runners.

Main Point I am making,is that PaC is more likely to run in Supreme than BDM,as hes entered and the other aint.

Reasons why only connections know,and the odds are bookies odds not connections.

I aint saying he SHOULD run in a particular race, im saying the possibilities open to connections.
By:
buddeliea
When: 31 Jan 15 11:32
Personally don't think talk should be reserved for definite runners,especially as we aint got many!!
Nearer the day when we have more idea-fair enough,but not at this stage imo.
I find it interesting and fun sunmmising connections options,and its possible you can find nice prices looking at that sort of angle.
By:
buddeliea
When: 31 Jan 15 11:44
Would say though that Peace and Co is more likely to be entered in the Supreme in case of a setback to Lami Serge.

If LS did not make the race I really think PaC or Vercingetorix would end up in the Supreme.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 31 Jan 15 13:48
Wonder if Morning Run will be sent here instead of the mares race. Surely get a decent allowance. Suppose it might depend on her performance today but shes only against the same horses again as per last time which is so often the case in Ireland zzz
By:
harry callaghan
When: 31 Jan 15 14:02
nice run from morning run...she didn't have a huge amount left but was off the lay off...can see her dropping back to 2 miles now got a lot of speed
By:
CVByrne
When: 31 Jan 15 14:14
She'll not be going back in trip, she'll be going up in trip for the Mares Hurdle. She is better on good ground and that was decent performance today given the ground and long time since previous run.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 31 Jan 15 14:16
not sure she is a middle distance horse myself cv very free goer but each to there own
By:
CVByrne
When: 31 Jan 15 14:37
By Kings Theatre, will get the trip fine. Defo won't be turning up in the Supreme anyway.
By:
CVByrne
When: 31 Jan 15 14:39
Yep goes for the Mares at Fairyhouse next Mullins has just said.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 31 Jan 15 14:54
interesting cv
By:
harry callaghan
When: 31 Jan 15 15:46
just had a chance to watch morning run again, she is a 2 miler imo

would get all the allowances in supreme, shame if they didn't have a stab, she wouldn't have walsh on anyway if annie power turns up in the mares...seems strange to me to not be at least interested in the supreme
By:
Tory
When: 31 Jan 15 15:47
When's fairyhouse?
By:
harry callaghan
When: 31 Jan 15 15:51
ah sorry cv i didn't know there was a mares race at fairyhouse...shame hey ho
By:
CVByrne
When: 31 Jan 15 16:31
Shame she won't be going to Cheltenham.
By:
CVByrne
When: 31 Jan 15 16:37
The 2m4f Mares Novice Hurdle has been won by Annie Power back in 2013 and Adriana Des Mottes last season. It's a G1 novice race so makes sense she'd stick to that.

Was my bad backing her for the Mares at Cheltenham when she is a Novice. Ah well
By:
SoYouThink
When: 31 Jan 15 16:38
The novice hurdlers are still unclear with little over 5 weeks to go. We should hopefully see them settle down a bit over the next fortnight with trainers, mainly Mullins, firming up his plans.

One thing I noticed on here is Nichols Canyon price is 34, seems way too big to be true. Wonder are they targeting the County Hurdle with him? Might mean Shaneshill runs in the Supreme. Also another interesting development is Jollyallan now goes for the Supreme as stated by Fry after today's race ... not sure does that have any implications for Alvisio Ville's target? Maybe he might go for the Neptune and Free Expression in the Albert Bartlett.

I don't know where you'd start with Gigginstown's either ... Identity Thief, Tell Us More, Outlander and McKinley ... is No More Heroes in the Neptune picture too?

No sign of Max Dynamite either .... is he being saved for a handicap too?

It's a lot of guesswork !!
By:
harry callaghan
When: 31 Jan 15 16:48
free expression not entered for bartlett
By:
peatysandy
When: 31 Jan 15 18:04
Can't see the Royal Bond winner running in anything other than the supreme,despite the circumstances of what happened in the race. Nice mark for county and maybe tempting but the likelier softer ground on day one and 10yrs on from Arcalis winning for GW could prob be deciding factor. Can't see any prob JP running two in the Supreme. The whole enigma revolves around the Gigginstown runners. For me O and TUM run in Neptune, NMH in A Barlett and McK and IT in the Supreme. The lileliest reversal would be IT and TUM switching but noone knows. The Deloitte will clear the waters.
By:
SoYouThink
When: 31 Jan 15 18:38
Thanks Harry .... Free Expression not entered for any of the novices? I wonder did he pick up an injury in the Naas race?

Wylie also has Shaneshill and Vago Collonges so probably gives him some flexibility as regards his novices. I would not be surprised to see Nichols Canyon line up in the County Hurdle.
By:
wellchief
When: 02 Feb 15 19:01
One thing I noticed on here is Nichols Canyon price is 34

Was just about to post the same thing SYT.  Out to 65 on here now, with nothing waiting to back, so has to be a non runner.

From a pocket perspective, I hope that doesn't put Shaneshill in the Supreme - got him to win any race, but also in a tasty looking treble but in the Neptune.  Might have a little bit on the 19.5 on here for the Supreme as a saver, as he looks the one out of all of Mullins runners who is most likely to be shuffled about.
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 03 Feb 15 18:48
No shaneshill or TUM for the deloitte on sunday. Mullins has left in Black Hercules, Mckinley, Nichols Canyon and Sempre Medici. Slightly disappointing no run for Shaneshill as thought it was the right race for him to prove he should still be considered right at the top of the WM hurdling tree. I wonder whether he might also be entered in one of the handicaps
By:
CVByrne
When: 03 Feb 15 18:54
Shaneshill will surely run in one of the 2mile hurdles at Punchestown or Naas later this month. Likely the latter as it's a Grade 2.
By:
buddeliea
When: 03 Feb 15 18:57
Identity Thief is the one im most interested in,backed him at big odds for the Supreme and not so big odds for the Neptune,really hoping for a big run on Sunday.
Just want him lining up in one of these races at the festival.
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 03 Feb 15 18:58
I hope so CV, the champion bumper form has worked out really well the last few years, i would like another run before the big event, still think he could be potentially top class.
By:
CVByrne
When: 03 Feb 15 19:03
The distances they run over don't matter much to Mullins. Faugheen over 3 miles last season Briar Hill over 2m4f and they went different distances at Cheltenham. I'd be amazed if Shaneshill didn't run again.
By:
stevo1
When: 04 Feb 15 10:02
After Sunday im sure it will be much clearer? Hopefully as CV states hope Shaneshill runs shortly as needs to jump better than lto.
Have had saver on Identity Thief 36 on here,in case wins/runs well Sunday. Was looking at Jollyallan just makes too many mistakes for me.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 04 Feb 15 20:05
Imo Mullins will run which ever of his this weekend and next navan or wherever which ever he feels is most in need of a race.
He will gallop the rest after racing at leopardstown. You know that thing they do every year that atr cover.
That don't just go for mullins I think goes for all trainers I suppose
By:
harry callaghan
When: 05 Feb 15 01:15
not sure i really get this identity thief thing...should be a good stayer in time but doubt he would run at cheltenham
By:
buddeliea
When: 05 Feb 15 07:10
Well that depends what happens on Sunday Harry I guess.
Was pretty impressive I thought,and have backed accordingly,I think they like him.
By:
buddeliea
When: 05 Feb 15 07:45
Will say though I do think he looked more of a stayer than a2 miler in his maiden, and think the Neptune is more likely.Have covered for supreme when they mentioned going back in distance. Should find out Sunday what the score is anyway.
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