Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices Hurdle
Supreme Novices Hurdle
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Replies: 273
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Normally about 10 who can win look thin on the ground to me.
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Yes Howdi,front two look pretty solid, on Hendersons myself at decent price.
Nearly all blue re Qewy on oddschecker,cant remember trainer having many festival winners. |
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Exactly Stevo - some of us were discussing Ferguson horses at the festival last night. Generally don't seem to like the undulations of Prestbury. Ex flat horses and all that. Mind you, Qwey did look pretty good on sat didn't he? Henderson's crew thought their's was a good thing.
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Have backed Jollyallan 14s as saver,not sure he jumps well enough but hard to find anything else bar backing Lami Serge again.
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Just put 99% of your stake on Douvan and use the rest to buy a wheelbarrow for your winnings
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I'm happy to back Jollyallan at 14/1 each-way. Fry has confirmed they are going there
Garde Le Victoire is in the form of his life and only gave 2lbs to Jollyallan beating him in gritty style. Jollyallan will have learnt a lot from that and he was clearly the classiest horse in the race travelling all over them despite sloppy jumping jumping is the issue with the horse obviously but i think 14/1 takes that into account. douvan is fast becoming one of the worst prices i've ever seen at the festival. |
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bigben 08 Feb 15 15:37 Joined: 28 Jan 08 | Topic/replies: 339 | Blogger: bigben's blog
I wonder if they might drop Shaneshill back in trip for The Supreme after today. I was straight on betfair at end of the race to get on Shaneshill for Supreme. Surely he'll go for the race if Nichols Canyon goes for Neptune. I have to say I enjoyed Alvisio Ville being beaten. The gamble on him didn't make sense, more akin to JP's commections than Mullins. |
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Why sure you still saying the gamble didn't make sense? It made perfect sense!
Willie's post Deloitte comments told you that as well.... |
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That maybe the way they go,as Ruby will be on 2 with decent chances Douvan or Shaneshill Supreme and Nichols Canyon in Neptune.
Hope so anyway,as don't think Wylie will have 2 in same race. |
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What did he say CCM? Haven't seen unfortunately
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I think he means that AV had only won a very average maiden before being chucked into a grade 1 against grade 1 winners. Mind you, on the other hand Ruby said that Nichols Canyon would never beat AV at home, so they obviously thought he was ok.
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'he did what he does on the Flat - stays. He jumped and stayed and he's improving all the time. I thought he mightn't beat the grey horse (Alvisio Ville) but I'd say the grey horse lacked experience and beat himself: remember the winner is a professional racehorse. The way he jumped I wouldn't be afraid to go back to two miles. He was gaining half a length or a length at his hurdles there and they were no slouches in behind. He did it the hard way from the front and that's the way you could win at Cheltenham. He's in the three races (novices at Cheltenham) and I imagine he would be a Neptune type but I wouldn't rule out the Supreme. It'll depend on what way the ball bounces with other horses as we have plenty of horses for the Albert Bartlett. W P Mullins, trainer
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I heard from an owner in the yard that AV had this week done the best piece of work of any novice in the yard had this season. There was a massive buzz about him, hence the plunge for the Neptune, as they were sure he was easily the best of their horses for the weekend. Had he won, he would be a stupid price now IMO.
Maybe inexperience beat him as WPM says, or maybe he just isn't good enough. Either way, I think this years festival will come a bit soon for him based on what we saw at the weekend. |
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I heard the same. Now hear that they may persevere with him but Punchestown looking like principal target with a view to Novice chasing next year
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Do you reckon AV will even run at the Festival now CCM?
His big days are definitely ahead of him, and over fences, as you pointed out on here a good while ago. I thought at the time, it might be his inexperience rather than his ability that might be his biggest obstacle this year. A few have said it before, but sometimes Mullins does rush some of his young ones straight into G1 action. |
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A lot of the time Well chief, and some notable ones got injured or went backwards because of it.
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Had to know I suppose Wellchief... I reckon they will still run him tbh. But I'm not sure it's the right call!
JP is particularly lacking in the novice division this year, so can't see him giving up a chance of a winner.... |
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Pricewised Qewy and Jollyallan as suggested.
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Very strange betting right now regarding douvan,now no one at all wanting to bet lami serge
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It's the worst time to be an antepost punter though, is there much money for anything?
All the trials have been run, there's nothing more to learn about the market leaders, you might get an injury. If you're a backer, you've missed the boat, you may as well just wait a couple of days/weeks and the bookies until the bookies are NRNB. Even waiting until the day may be more profitable at this point. |
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Henderson stated in todays Post Lami Serge done really well,
wont run again until Festival. Presume this wont be last drifter not to run hope he does as on at 14/1. Took over week for Al Ferof to drift right out,being trainer stated will miss Festival,this stable Lmai Serge,has lots of previous im afraid. |
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I agree with Tucho - best now to wait on the day for Bookie offers as they battle it out for business, particularly for the Supreme. They know that even the punters that win....have MANY more races to lose it afterwards !
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I'd say 95% of my ante-post betting is done. Now i wait till the morning of the first day where the books give money away. Some of the offers and push outs on the first days of the last few years have been unbelievable. I am fully expecting given the negativity around Faugheen's price that he surely be offered at 2/1 somewhere. 7/4 at worst! Other offers could be Annie Power in the mares, Quevega was offered at 5/4 the couple years she was odds on in the antepost lists week before. Other offers in recent years has been Billys going 5 places on the Supreme. I know they no longer sponsor the race and so this is unlikely to happen again but there will be again a decent amount of juice on the morning of the 10th March between 8:30am - 10:30am where the books try to line the pockets of the semi knowledgeable knowing they will get it all back with interest the next 3 days when the handicaps/near impossible to back winner of races come along!
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Spot on IMO Tucho.
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I'm not saying anything about when to bet,all I'm saying is both horses especially now lami serge have drifted !
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I wouldn't be too worried about the lack in money queuing to back, it's the same every year. It is this time when the various trainers are finalizing their plans and talking to their owners about who goes where and who stays at home etc and as the horses work and get fit ready for their big day people just generally get a bit skittish and so horses can get traded at thoroughly ridiculous prices for no apparent reason. The key to look for in a market when a fancied one gets matched at silly prices, i.e Douvan at 6, which was to coppers, is look down the list and see if anything has shortened against it and work out the books %. If we look at a race like the Supreme, we have to assume that the fancied runners will make up a overround/underround of 110% on here, with the 10% being the prices of runners that wont turn up priced up at 100s+ further down the lists. When one gets matched at 'silly' prices if nothing else contracts with it then generally nothing sinister has/is going on.
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It was this time last year that there was a stupid drift on Vautour and we all know what happened there.
http://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/30209119/vautour-55-supreme |
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Cheers sts,havent backed douvan or lami serge,just thought it was a little strange,scared to put racing news on at the min,as long as faugheen gets there I will be happy !
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This time last year there was a massive drift on Josses Hill too, wnet 40's on here, but he beat the horse BJG ended up riding!
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who knows what causes these drifts, sometimes it is real news, sometimes its nothing at all. it could be someone trying to get on at a bigger price. Mullins is pretty good at letting people know a horse is definitively injured unlike some
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Markets all over the place for this race at mo, Lami Serge and Douvan.
Something to do with Mullins runners obviously? Eg targets/setback. |
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Shaneshill had setback re trainer back in full work,heads to Cheltenham but what race?
Looks on here maybe Supreme, as Wylie got Nichols Canyon for Neptune,or both may switch. |
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is there a quote Stevo1? there is also the possibility of running him in one of the handicaps although this would be rarer for a NHF 2nd.
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Saw interview on ATR with Mullins this morning with Chapman,not sure how old is was guess over week?
But was first time heard anything re Shaneshill for while,got him to win any race at least he may turn up. |
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yeah same as you. I have laid him in the Neptune market to grab back a bit of my stake as to me the betting and all the comments so far suggest that it will be NC for the Neptune and Douvan and potentially Shaneshill for the supreme. Maybe he has been a difficult horse to train, they did make a few comments to that in the build up to Cheltenham last year and was one of the reasons Ruby wasn't on him in the NHF.
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Ruby was on him in the bumper,funny horse shaneshill,don't know whether he was outstayed in the bumper or done for a bit of toe off silver Concorde.
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I know he will have to jump better at Cheltenham to have chance,than he has done 2 starts this season.
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my apologies should have said patrick wasn't on him for the punchestown version
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There seems to be this mad rush to the Neptune amongst all the novice hurdlers, with only Lami Serge and Douvan seemingly definites (a possible exaggeration, but not by much!)
Is there anything wrong with The Supreme? Did I miss a meeting or something? |
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Think Shaneshill heading to Supreme.
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