Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices Hurdle
Supreme Novices Hurdle
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Replies: 273
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I hope he is stevo,i was drunk a couple of week ago and had a 20 quid double with a dog that won at 5s on the greyhound channel,fingers crossed !
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Hope so for you cufno,better have saver on something.
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After allez columbieres snuffed it I didn't really fancy anything else,front 2 in the market are short enough,think jollyallan won't be far away !
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Lets hope Shaneshill shows in Supreme,nothing worse than not knowing.
Fwiw on any race Shaneshill, not too hopeful though hoped would have another run. Lami Serge 14s and Jollyallan 16s hopefully one will give me a shout! |
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All 3 have a good chance,Patrick mullins apparently said weeks ago shaneshill was supreme bound even before nichols canyon won,don't know what to make of douvan tbh
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probably a mad question as it regards willie mullins. but do you think gigginstown would send outlander to the supreme? as they have tell us more for the neptune ( who i have not given up on yet ) markets currently suspended
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I've been wondering about Outlander. One of the best pieces of novice form all season imo.
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I am surprised that Douvan is such a short price considering it's form, it's weak compared to Lami Serge and Nichols Canyon. I hope Mullins sees sense and runs Nichols Canyon in this race, as I think it is a future champion hurdler. It's second win reminded me so much of Hurricane Fly, as it cruised past it's rivals to win. Lami Serge's form looks strong, as it has won well in every race (equally as well as Douvan) and has beaten some decent horses, that have gone on to win good handicaps, Violet Dancer for example. Douvan has won 2 races well, but against very mediocre opposition IMO, I'm sure the Mullins, Walsh and Ricci factor is the reason for its price.
Nichols Canyon and Lami Serge definitely for me. |
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I like the look of Qewy. Nothing special at Haydock which was expected but his turn of foot at Newbury was very good, certainly too good to go unnoticed. Having watched both races back again his jumping @ Haydock was a bit sketchy, but jumped very well at Newbury. Given the speed, improved jumping, added to the Ferguson stable in fine form, and then a price of 20/1 (doubt it will shorten), I think it makes for a solid opening bet. Id sooner have £25 ew on Qewy at 20/1 than £50 on Douvan @ 15/8.
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I agree I think Qewy is a live outsider. I like the look of it's last win.
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Yep, big chance.
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Douvan is absolutely one of the worst priced supreme horses in recent years, priced purely on connections, i've laid him big.
jollyallan battle hardened, put up a 150 performance lto, 10/1 is huge |
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Douvan may be a short price now but there's little doubt in my mind 150 is the lowest he will be rated at the end of career.
Check his first run out, form is very strong ran to mid 140s and did it easily. No surprise they think he's special at home, which is saying something considering mulllins' ammunition. |
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I do find it funny that apparently Douvan is the horse who the Mullins team rave about but early in the season all the talk was for Allez Colombieres.
I like the horse and he is a worthy favourite especially in what doesn't look to be a vintage Supreme but I'd rather go with Shaneshill ew if he's confirmed for this race. |
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Agree with formboy - it's easy to say that connections are the reason for the short price, but he was 8/1 ish when he started working the house down. People struggling to understand why they are running Nichols Canyon in the Neptune should realise it's because this mighty powerful stable with all these crack novices are adamant he can't beat Douvan over 2 miles - and they've had their conkers on it! If you've missed the price, you've missed the price but I think you've got to respect their judgement. If they are wrong, there must be a load of eachway value about, but they genuinely think he's a 'monster' 'machine' etc - so let's wait and see. Won't be long now.
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Paddy power going 25/1 jollyallan after his 2nd to GLV was their day 1 no brainer offer come early!
It was obvious he'd put a serious rating in for a novice at Christmas. |
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Vautour ran to 155 last year to win cosily and Jollyallan has already ran to 149 with further improvement likely. A double figure price is great value.
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Anyone know what time the markets re-open at?
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it will either be tomorrow at around 11am or thursday at 11am
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Presumably tomorrow ... why the wait anyway or what's the procedure? Betfair and the bookies have already removed horses from their markets (so I'm guessing they've got a list of the defectors).
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I don't think the list is available until tomorrow morning, as an example the supreme still have 71 selections, the Neptune 96 runners. They will remove ad hoc where a horse is withdrawn by the trainer or is injured. I would imagine we will be down to be between 25-35 runners in the supreme once the pruning is finished
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Just over 2 weeks now,what is going to beat Douvan and Lami Serge?
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Simples……….Jollyallen. Get on before its too late.
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I have a feeling this could be one of those Supremes were a Cinders and Ashes could upset the Darlan party.
None of the list scream 2016 Champion Hurdle winner to me. In answer to your question Stevo, I don't know. Minimum stake for me in this, as I just can't get a handle on it. The Tuesday this year is probably my quietest day when normally its my biggest. Nothing in the Supreme sticking out at me, can't back UDS at odds on, missed the price on Faugheen and no Quevega to lump on. Just need the Young Master to do the business in the 4 miler   |
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Hayling have backed Jollyallan at 16s and Lami Serge 14s so in good position.
Seems like not a very deep race,but im sure must be something lurking? Wellchief have backed The Young Master for both races,nr no bet in 4 miler, huge 10s imo. If starts in 4 miler,will go off 2nd fav or favdepending on DP target. |
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@Well chief, you not tempted by the potential Evs on AP in the mares? if she was fit and well she is several pounds in front of anything Quevega achieved.
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i'm with you chiefy, tuesday is normally my biggest betting day by far but as yet i've no opinion on the supreme which is most unlike me !!!!!!!!
hopefully once the handicaps take shape there will be a standout bet or 2. i'll still have a bet on every race tho !!!!!! |
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No Fallen, not really tempted to lump on Annie, but do have her in a nice(ish) double with UDS.
You're spot on though in that she's miles ahead, and imo, better than Quevega, but two completely different horses so don't know how her lack of a prep will effect her. With Quevega you knew it was the plan to run first time out, but with Annie, its not. Yeah Bonnie, at this time of year I've normally had a decent wager in the Supreme but none this year. Recent ones I've had really strong fancies like Darlan, MTOY, Sprinter Sacre and Menorah. You'll notice that only one of them won, so probably good that I don't lump on anything! Last year I couldn't split Vautour or Irving, so was very slightly up on the race but not much (Wicklow Brave ate into any winnings too). |
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Should add my only bets in this are Alviso Ville 20/1 nrnb, and a little bit on Shaneshill a while ago at 20's on here.
Not particularly confident on either of them to be fair. |
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nothing in the supreme really fits my criteria, started off in bumpers, won a graded novice hurdle, won last time out etc etc
very much looking forward to the festival tho !!!!! |
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unfortunately of the 1,2,3 bumper horses from last years champion NHF Shaneshill has only been tried twice and doesn't appear at this stage to be that high in the WM pecking order (much to my disappointment), Silver Concorde has been fairly mediocre and Joshua lane was thrashed on debut and hasn't been seen since. The Punchestown version from last year was working out better in which Jolly Allan ran. More of the horses seem to be tackling the longer trips rather than the Supreme
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I'm on Douvan at 6-1 and that's the price he should be. Qewy's turn of foot was impressive last time and he is in the book at 16-1 also.
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Wellchief,think Alvisio Ville too big a price now after lto run,
was working better than Nichols Canyon allegedly before last run. Needs to settle better,which it should due given faster pace. |
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Nice price Collector, no market moves since Paddy Power went free bet earlier today.
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With you there Stevo,getting quiet excited about AV in the Supreme.
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Is that right? AV for the Supreme? He's feckin massive that thing - 2 miles around the old course? Thought they had learnt their lesson regards hurdling last time out. Genuinely surprised - was certain they'd decided to go novice chasing. Who's going to ride? They'll need an HGV licence!
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Backed AV in Paddys Douvan free bet market. Hoping Lami Serge does the business.
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AV isn't the worse e/w shout, but i rarely do e/w. Mullins was annoyed at AP, and my guess is that AP rode the horse for himself and connections, and not the trainer. He didn't give mullins the excuse to say he was staying on well, and that the neptune would be ideal. It would ne suprise to see this fella run into a place.
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Fast paced 2m,right up his street. Wont half be shifting up that hill.
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Who do you reckon would ride him?
Ruby - Douvan, AP - Jollyalan, Townend - Shaneshill? Would it be a JP second string jockey? |