Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices Hurdle
Supreme Novices Hurdle
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Replies: 273
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Alvisio Ville looks to be heading for Neptune,re all the money for it this morning.
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Yeah - that looks like some serious money driving that change. I'd much prefer to run him in a Neptune if he were mine, given his size and ability to handle softer ground - might just find things happening too quickly in a Supreme.
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Has someone tipped up Alvisio for the Neptune? Or has something been said?
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You never know at this stage as rumours can - and do - manipulate markets, but I'd guess something has either been said or the money is smart money following a genuine rumour. Not only is he shortening by the hour for the Neptune but he's also being pushed out for the Supreme, which is an odd move from bookies if this is unfounded. Has also been taken out of the Supreme by a couple...
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Also McManus other horse in Supreme Jollyallan being nibbled at.
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FFS. Im having a bad run here
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Had AV any race so not too bad here, have just been out to take a nibble at the 16s Jolly thats still around. I think if JP has made his mind up where he wants his horses the markets sure as heck thinks so anyways. Jolly ought to be 10s in a few days
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Tell us More Neptune and AV Supreme were my two biggest AP bets in the novice division. Will be f*cking typical if AV wins the Neptune and beats TUM
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Sea Jollyallan would have big shout if didn't clatter 2/3 hurdles every time it runs,wont get away with it at Festival imo.
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That's true, but sometimes championship pace can iron out mistakes in some horses.
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They will be going faster than most of field have ever been before, so maybe quicker pace will help his hurdling?
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This Alvisio Ville plunge for the Neptune is one of the wierdest things to happen in relation to Cheltenham. He won a poor maiden and will make a superb chaser. Seems like he'll go for the race, but 7/1 fav. Pure madness.
Really Antepost seems to be a bookies benefit these days. Pray on ignorance and mob madness? |
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Really CVB? I don't think it's weird at all. The horse apparently worked exceptionally well this week. The Neptune is wide open and looks like that has been nominated as the target.
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This has hurt me today as my two supreme bets so far have been AV and Allez Colombieres - talk about having a shocker!! Saw the record of Deloitte winners over past 10yrs in Neptune and it makes for interesting reading. Will admit I haven't looked into the horses, just the finishing position in the Neptune
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He's only nominated for the race because JPs other horse Free Expression isn't going and Jollyallen is going for the Supreme. No racing related things have happened bar where a horse is heading. Bookies have decided to cut the price massively as they enjoy the follow on outing. ie the people who follow a bit of a bet like this and don't know what the cause was.
Look there had to be some substance to start it, but it seems a tad silly anyone betting unless you know what the plunge was for. If it even was a real plunge. |
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You could argue that getting 12-1 or bigger was a fair piece of business though, regardless of the truth behind it all. Let's be honest, this is a race begging for a standout performance to shake it up, too, so easy to see why the money came if he worked brilliantly and is likely going here. I know it's a big if, but he could win well on Sunday and be 4-1. He was only 8-1 for the Supreme, which was more ridiculous given what his form actually amounted to and that Douvan and L'ami Serge are in that.
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Do you not think that he's more likely for the Neptune over the Supreme then CV?
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Surely you should be him for Sunday then as he'd have to shorten to 4/1 to make the reinvestment of winnings less profitable. I've no idea what the plunge has been for, but he's done zero to warrant it on the track. But to take 10/1 or 12/1 based on little information, not something that seems a sound idea to me.
Sundays race has taken added importance though. Does have a feel of Douvan and Alvisio are his best 2 novices. Win both races kinda idea. We'll shee of course. |
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Tory, you referring to Alvisio? It'd make far more sense if he ran in Neptune as Jollyallan is running in the Supreme. But I've not put too much thought into where he will run, don't really think he'll win either as a novice. Think he'll make a cracking chaser though next season, one for a bit of cut in the ground by his action. Same as Jollyallan too, proper chaser horse.
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Yeah, i meant AV. Seems strange if it's based on Jollyallan as he doesn't seem up to the job to me
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I thought he was too short for both races to be honest.
True that the Neptune looks wide open but I've said all along, I've never seen such an inexperienced horse so high up in the betting for a G1 novice hurdle at the festival, when only 5 weeks away. One bumper and one maiden at odds on and he's sub 10/1 for both??? Must be something special at home. |
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PP gone 6/4 Douvan ffs,obviously don't want to take any more money on it.
Surely if Lami Serge shows this will be 2/1 at least on day? |
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Sickener. im on AV at 33s :(. But I do have a nice backup in Douvan at 12s. My foresight was Douvan could have gone up in trip so had him to win any race at 9/2 aswell. Uhhh!
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What does people think of Qewy? Thought he was quite impressive this afternoon.
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Horse who always had potential shockster, never realized it on the flat and suspect mentally, id be amazed if he ran in the first 6 in a poor Supreme, the flatter tracks like today might suit him better.
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And for what its worth, I was probably his biggest fan on the flat, that maiden win had me thinking serious animal, got one good turn off him the day he stole it from the front against the Obrien hotpot, think that was the only time he done what I expected him to do, and that was more down to the set up of the race than anything, it was McDonoghs to lose.
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Binocular only horse which ran on the flat to have hit the frame in about the last 7 supremes. Personally ex flat horses are the first i cross out in this race
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the Deloitte shows that whatever you hear they are doing at home sometimes you just need to close your ears to it.
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Most things you here coming out if mullins mouth don't listen to,I knew once he was saying how good this alvisio Ville was I backed nicholls canyon,full of Shiite mullins !
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I like Qewy Shock,backed him today 25/1,think that's a nice price after what I saw yesterday.
Wish I had backed Nicholls Canyon,good performance there. |
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just think this might be an average bunch of novices in Ireland the form lines are all over the place. Mckinly was thrashed out of sight there as an example.
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Yeh,possible.
Identity Thief poor there,but his stables been poor lately and he was friendless in the betting. Better days for him to come imo. Few others ran below par as well inc the Fav. Winner was good though and i thought the 2nd ran well. Ruby kept saying about staying in the interview after,wants him in the Neptune,or even the 3 miler the way he said he will stay as far as you want!! |
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it's more interesting because douvan and Nichols Canyon they are owned by two of the biggest donors in the stables and so it might be taken out of his hands that they run against each other in the same race. Although I would imagine GW will be more placid in listening to mullins than RR would be.
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They both bend over for Willie tbf.
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Cheers for that Sint........a rather nasty vision just appeared
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Howay budd,just about to eat my cumberland sausage
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sorry cuf |
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I wonder if they might drop Shaneshill back in trip for The Supreme after today.
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The 33's on Silver Concorde for the Supreme offers a decent bit of ew value now. He's almost doubled in price after today.
I thought it was a good enough prep, considering he was never really put in the race at any point, and they weren't hard on him at all. It's also conceivable that the three that finished in front of him will all end up in the Neptune too. I was surprised at his price today though. Aside from Alvisio Ville he was shorter for the Supreme than all the others in the race, but went off 7th fav out of 9? |
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Pricewise tomorrow for Supreme,not much choice for him but reckon Qewy maybe his selection or Jollyallan.
Good performance by Nichols Canyon yesterday but old scenario what race,step up to Neptune imo as stayer on flat, but not short of pace.Will give Ruby decent chances in both Douvan ( Supreme ) Nichols Canyon ( Neptune ). |