Supreme Novices Hurdle

Agree with formboy - it's easy to say that connections are the reason for the short price, but he was 8/1 ish when he started working the house down. People struggling to understand why they are running Nichols Canyon in the Neptune should realise it's because this mighty powerful stable with all these crack novices are adamant he can't beat Douvan over 2 miles - and they've had their conkers on it! If you've missed the price, you've missed the price but I think you've got to respect their judgement. If they are wrong, there must be a load of eachway value about, but they genuinely think he's a 'monster' 'machine' etc - so let's wait and see. Won't be long now.

Paddy power going 25/1 jollyallan after his 2nd to GLV was their day 1 no brainer offer come early!

It was obvious he'd put a serious rating in for a novice at Christmas.

Vautour ran to 155 last year to win cosily and Jollyallan has already ran to 149 with further improvement likely. A double figure price is great value.

Anyone know what time the markets re-open at?

it will either be tomorrow at around 11am or thursday at 11am

Presumably tomorrow ... why the wait anyway or what's the procedure? Betfair and the bookies have already removed horses from their markets (so I'm guessing they've got a list of the defectors).

I don't think the list is available until tomorrow morning, as an example the supreme still have 71 selections, the Neptune 96 runners. They will remove ad hoc where a horse is withdrawn by the trainer or is injured. I would imagine we will be down to be between 25-35 runners in the supreme once the pruning is finished

Just over 2 weeks now,what is going to beat Douvan and Lami Serge?

Simples……….Jollyallen. Get on before its too late.

I have a feeling this could be one of those Supremes were a Cinders and Ashes could upset the Darlan party.

None of the list scream 2016 Champion Hurdle winner to me.

In answer to your question Stevo, I don't know. Minimum stake for me in this, as I just can't get a handle on it.

The Tuesday this year is probably my quietest day when normally its my biggest.

Nothing in the Supreme sticking out at me, can't back UDS at odds on, missed the price on Faugheen and no Quevega to lump on.

Just need the Young Master to do the business in the 4 miler

Hayling have backed Jollyallan at 16s and Lami Serge 14s so in good position.
Seems like not a very deep race,but im sure must be something lurking?
Wellchief have backed The Young Master for both races,nr no bet in 4 miler, huge 10s imo.
If starts in 4 miler,will go off 2nd fav or favdepending on DP target.

@Well chief, you not tempted by the potential Evs on AP in the mares? if she was fit and well she is several pounds in front of anything Quevega achieved.

i'm with you chiefy, tuesday is normally my biggest betting day by far but as yet i've no opinion on the supreme which is most unlike me !!!!!!!!
hopefully once the handicaps take shape there will be a standout bet or 2.

i'll still have a bet on every race tho !!!!!!

No Fallen, not really tempted to lump on Annie, but do have her in a nice(ish) double with UDS.

You're spot on though in that she's miles ahead, and imo, better than Quevega, but two completely different horses so don't know how her lack of a prep will effect her. With Quevega you knew it was the plan to run first time out, but with Annie, its not.

Yeah Bonnie, at this time of year I've normally had a decent wager in the Supreme but none this year. Recent ones I've had really strong fancies like Darlan, MTOY, Sprinter Sacre and Menorah. You'll notice that only one of them won, so probably good that I don't lump on anything! Last year I couldn't split Vautour or Irving, so was very slightly up on the race but not much (Wicklow Brave ate into any winnings too).

Should add my only bets in this are Alviso Ville 20/1 nrnb, and a little bit on Shaneshill a while ago at 20's on here.

Not particularly confident on either of them to be fair.

nothing in the supreme really fits my criteria, started off in bumpers, won a graded novice hurdle, won last time out etc etc

very much looking forward to the festival tho !!!!!

unfortunately of the 1,2,3 bumper horses from last years champion NHF Shaneshill has only been tried twice and doesn't appear at this stage to be that high in the WM pecking order (much to my disappointment),  Silver Concorde has been fairly mediocre and Joshua lane was thrashed on debut and hasn't been seen since. The Punchestown version from last year was working out better in which Jolly Allan ran. More of the horses seem to be tackling the longer trips rather than the Supreme

I'm on Douvan at 6-1 and that's the price he should be. Qewy's turn of foot was impressive last time and he is in the book at 16-1 also.

Wellchief,think Alvisio Ville too big a price now after lto run,
was working better than Nichols Canyon allegedly before last run.
Needs to settle better,which it should due given faster pace.

Nice price Collector, no market moves since Paddy Power went free bet earlier today.

With you there Stevo,getting quiet excited about AV in the Supreme.

Is that right? AV for the Supreme? He's feckin massive that thing - 2 miles around the old course? Thought they had learnt their lesson regards hurdling last time out. Genuinely surprised - was certain they'd decided to go novice chasing. Who's going to ride? They'll need an HGV licence!

Backed AV in Paddys Douvan free bet market. Hoping Lami Serge does the business.

AV isn't the worse e/w shout, but i rarely do e/w. Mullins was annoyed at AP, and my guess is that AP rode the horse for himself and connections, and not the trainer. He didn't give mullins the excuse to say he was staying on well, and that the neptune would be ideal. It would ne suprise to see this fella run into a place.

Fast paced 2m,right up his street. Wont half be shifting up that hill.

Who do you reckon would ride him?

Ruby - Douvan, AP - Jollyalan, Townend - Shaneshill?

Would it be a JP second string jockey?

Wesley Snipes! He's massive!!

Yeh,talking about that earlier funnily enough,be Mark Walsh I reckon Chief.

Or here's another thought. AP wanys alvisio in the supreme so that he can ride parlour games in the neptune ? Ahhhhh ?

Good point Graeme

I've watched the Deloitte back a few times and I can't really see why WPM was annoyed at AP. Thought he gave him a decent ride. Wonder what he meant?

AP very well known for listening to instructions and remembering them until he gets the leg up then he tends to change plan to what he thinks is best, I guess WPM gave him a set of instructions which got the typical AP treatment.

I'd guess mullins wanted more effort put into the horses finish, as he's green. Horse lacks experience as it is, so learned not much from not fighting to the line.  We will see what happens. If your voucher is ew.be more hopeful than expectant id say.

BG will be on parlour games....won't he?
His trainers horse is doubtful, I believe?

Alvisio Ville - yeah, who would ride him? Very very interesting if AP chose him

AP riding Jollyallan surely.

Not sure if Mark Walsh has ever ridden for Willie? Re Alvisio Ville would be a negative for me at Cheltenham.

As a backer I would be quiet happy to have MW on AV,and as he is JP.s 2nd jockey,he must be the likely rider I would think.
That's if AP don't pick him of course.
Don't think whether he's ridden for Mullins before makes any difference to be honest.

Be slightly worried lack of riding experience at Festival tbh.
Not sure how many rides/winners he has had there,
cannot remember him have any winners.
He is 0 from 16 in Britain last 5 seasons.

I've seen enough of him to be happy with him
On board,if the horse is good enough I don't see MW stopping him from winning.

William Hill have launched their biggest ever Cheltenham Festival offer and are preparing to give all customers a risk free £25 bet on the opening race, the Supreme Novices Hurdle

Register an account with William Hill today to claim £20 in free bets from a first deposit and bet of just £10

William Hill launch their biggest ever Cheltenham Festival offer from 8.30am on Friday morning (27th February), with all customers able to take advantage of a guaranteed return in the opening Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

All losing bets* on the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle will be returned as a free bet, up to a value of £25 on mobile/online and up to £10 money back as a free bet in retail.

William Hill spokesman Jon Ivan-Duke told Bettingpro:

“This is the biggest and best Cheltenham offer that we have ever done and gives our customers an unbeatable start to the Festival.”

If a customer bets through William Hill’s online or mobile channels, in the event of a losing bet on the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, a free bet will be credited up to £25 and may be placed on any race within 24 hours.

If a customer places their Supreme Novices’ Hurdle bet in a William Hill shop, in the event of a losing bet, they will be credited with a free bet up to £10 on the 2.40pm Festival Handicap Chase (The Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Steeple Chase).

If you don't have an account with William Hill and you sign-up now then you can also claim two free £10 bets when registering your details and making a first bet of £10. That's £20 in free bets plus a risk free bet on the opening race of the 2015 Cheltenham Festival, which gives a perfect opportunity to build up a betting balance for the remainder of the festival.

just watched an irish horse preview on youtube with some bloke describing douvan as "the only horse who can get faugheen off the bridle at home"

comments like that always make me laugh!

We will all find out shortly,short priced Favs in race have poor record over the years.

Mark Walsh's broken arm blows the Alvisio Ville ride back open.  Feel sorry for him.

Oh that is not good,wont be Champion Jockey now either.
Maybe Townsend?

Was thinking he'd probably be on Shaneshill mate.

Yes maybe forgotten horse, and i have backed him win any race last year.Off my radar now will be laying off nr time when shortens.

Cooper tipping up Shaneshill for the neptune tonight!

The Neptune,thought was going Supreme?

As far as know no mention of which race Shaneshill goes for,you heard something I aint Stevo?

So I'm guessing now that Townend would be on Mullins other horse in this,hope it's AV.

Preview last night - re Neptune -
Cooper- I'll ride outlander. Trip will suit well. Jumps, travels but people are forgetting Shaneshill.

Go figure, budd.

Who rides Alvisio, do we think?

budd no I aint heard anything mate,just surprised Coopers comment re Shaneshill for Neptune.

just watched an irish horse preview on youtube with some bloke describing douvan as "the only horse who can get faugheen off the bridle at home"

comments like that always make me laugh!



But if it's true...

Highly doubt Shaneshill will run in the same race as Nichols Canyon, so will probably be the Supreme. Don't see why Cooper would know where Shaneshill is going, makes no sense for Wylie to run them both in the Neptune when you could make a case for either to be in the Supreme.

shaneshill has been campaigned as if Neptune is the target, nicholls canyon has just won the best supreme trial easily, but we are talking about willie mullins so who knows.......

Ok Stevo cheers mate.

So basically we don't know and as Slabster says,why would cooper know?? And same race as Ncanyon??? if indeed that's where NC goes!!

Just too much speculation on here sometimes imo

If it was up to me I'd have Nichols Canyon in the Supreme and run Douvan in the Neptune. Nichols Canyon had the Deloitte won on the home bend such was the speed he showed and he wasn't going any further away from Windsor Park at the line, and you could make  a case for that horse getting closer/reversing the form in the Neptune. But it's not up to me

Sizing John under the radar for Supreme, won a Grade 1 lto
form boosted this week.
Slight negative trainer-form but at 33s, could be e/w bet if travelling.

25/1 e/w with PP maybe way to as free bet if Douvan wins.

It's seems pretty obvious to me that NC will be in the Neptune, and if Shaneshill is ready he'll be in the Supreme. NC was a 2m flat horse.. the neptune distance will bring out the best in him.

I agree with slabster if NC  were mine he,d be in the supreme

Owner says NC goes Neptune,think that is right decision if that is the case.
He would probably run a big race in either to be honest,but a horse that as Sint says was  2m flat horse suggests to me that the Neptune would be ideal.

Cardinal Walter absolutely sluiced up in the first at Doncaster. Good news for Qewy backers as franked the form in good style.

Yep,pleased to see that.

I'm on Douvan at 6-1 but I have my doubts to be honest. High knee action may need soft, beat 3 milers last time, lack of a prep run, ain't had to dig in yet, favs poor record. I don't care about the hype from the stable cos that stable could run the local donkey and certain people would have you that its a superstar - Pont Alexandre, Boston Bob, Annie Power...all taken care of for starters

Had Shaneshill and Allez Colombieres yonks ago and one has died and the other is almost still alive! Took Qewy today after C Walter's 15 lengths romp. Was immediately taken by Qewy's turn of foot LTO and with the form well and truly franked he is good value.

Wise man.
Any ideas on his jockey??

Sam Twiston-Davies I think. Rode him on debut and don't think has anything for Supreme.

When JP put Choc Thornton on Captain Cee Bee in the Supreme, did JP have an established second jockey then?  Genuinely don't know, so asking the question.

Just if he did, it didn't stop him putting someone one who didn't really have any connections to the stable or the owner.  I wouldn't rule out someone based in England to ride Alvisio Ville.

I'd understand putting a second string on an outsider, but if Alviso is as good as they thought before the Deloitte, I think they'd want an established jockey on him like a Fehily or a Jacob, because unless I'm missing an obvious one, I can't see an obvious ride for them.

I was at the Newbury meeting when both Cardinal Walter and Qewy ran against each other, I backed The Cardinal and there was good money for him too, turning in my selection was tanking along and looked two out as if he just had to press the button and he was away, but Qewy came on the scene and simply blew him away .
Was deeply impressed, good time, given conditions and suitably impressed both M coy and BJ (Runner up)Hence the Cardinal won well yesterday giving the form a solid look, I believe given a slice of luck in running this Qewy has a massive chance in the supreme as he can travel and quicken at the business end. I am too, interested in the jockey as noted in above posts. My gut feeling is AP would like to ride, but seemingly tied, will be at Sandown on Saturday and will listen to all views including AP`S after racing, GL to all concerned and involved.

A Ville not going?

Just looking at the exchange then and noticed that too.  No money waiting to back and out to 25's for the Supreme?

And not like a switch of plan either - no support for Neptune. Must have had a setback / bad piece of work

The other Mullins runners likey for the supreme are incredibly weak both TUM and AV seem like the might miss the race although they have been fluctuating quite wildly in the last few weeks. I assume we might have a few more answers tomorrow when the decs are out.

All the leading horses stand their ground for Tuesday,Mullins still got AV and TUM still entered and Shaneshill.
As well as Nichols Canyon,obviously couple of these going Neptune.

At the Aintree preview night Charlie Longsdon was very sweet on Lami Serge.

Lami beat one of his at Newbury, Kilcooley really easily (6 lengths) and at the time Kilcooley was only rated 133 and now he is rated 161.  He said that was by far the best piece of form on offer because he thinks Kilcooley is an excellent horse, so he thinks Lami can run to an equally high rating.

Good stuff, hope he is right.

Lami Serge rated 153 at present,lot of his form been franked,and being by Kings Theatre could improve more
given better ground,as only been running on soft so far.
Hopefully will end Hendersons run of placed horses in race,9 top fours in last 8 seasons.

yep, he's done everything but win, NJH. It'll happen one day!

Mullins to have 4 runners in this? Reckon only 12 runners he didnt mention TUM in RP column today?

Think TUM is a bone of contention. Mullins really pleased with him this last week and clearly favoured the Neptune route. Giggy have committed him to the Supreme. Maybe after Mullins column was written? So the Supreme is where he is at the moment - but with these connections things can change very late - remember First Lieutenant being switched about late for the last 2 seasons.

I am coming round to Lami Serge.

Good man mary you know it makes sense.

Delsie given up on TUM tbh,think trainer got hump over Don Poli as well lol.

Never mind stevo - you know that however things might go for the first 3 days, you always have those tasty tickets on Hargam in The Triumph to get you out of jail and set you up for those last day good things in the final 3 races! GL with all yours mate.

Delsie hope dont have to wait that long matey,best of luck yourself next week.

'I am coming round to Lami Serge.'

me too, tried to find something else but this will do at 4/1 if i can get it.

Mary you put it up as a NAP on the 3rd

Ming 7/2 on sportsbook with free bet if it wins

geoff its 3 free bets on sportsbook if it wins ,as long as it dosent end up 11/4sp

12 declared Mullins with 4, think he may get share of prizemoney ffs.
Hoping Douvan gets stuffed,as got 5 at decent prices to beat it lol.
Not long now 25 hrs and 10 mins to the off!

Ditto stevo1. I've got Lami, Jollyallan, Shaneshill and Qewy all at good prices. Come on! !

Hope Douvan wins for as holding £50e/w 12/1 come on Ruby :-)

Shaneshill has a very champagne feverish profile going on :) Think he'll out stay everything imo

Ladbrokes gone 3/1 Douvan for limited time

From 9.00 am tomorrow, re ATR.

half the field have to try and overcome the run in last 52 days stat

1 - Douvan

2 - Qewy

3 - Shaneshill

Favourite wins and the bookies are quaking in their boots.

Well done collector