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Even based on his very nice performance last time Hargam has a lot of ground to make up on P@C through Starchitect and his official rating is about a stone lower. Something is going to have to be a serious animal to lower P@C's colours.
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We ain't seen the best of these by far,imo any of Hendersons could win this.All look pretty equal chances to me,ignore the ratings imo.
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I've always worked on the assumption that Henderson runs his best 4-y-o in the Adonis.
Bivouac is being aimed at the Dovecote. |
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Gut feeling visually is that top notch wants further and will get outpaced before probably staying on....in each of his first two races he was niggled up times before getting on top late on.
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Outpaced?? Ain't seen that one coming Duffy.
He's very uncomplicated, and all the time he jumps like he does he's got some future. Personally think after watching his races he will be fine and is a major player. |
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what like countrywide flame you mean
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Yeah, just like him...and sam winner too.....all I said was that in each of his first two races, before getting on top late on he had just been niggled at....multiply that effect by the pace they'll go in the triumph and it suggests to me that he may have a problem in that department...may still win it though, just like countrywide flame.
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As these juviniles are so lightly raced and inexperienced, current ratings mean nothing to me at this stage....although to be fair they mean nothing to me in most Grade 1 races.
The fact that P&C put up a great rating at Donny many months ago doesn't enter my head when betting in this race. Any one of them can easily run a stone better than what they've shown already due to natural rate of improvement, better fitness and ground, and better jumping. I'm not saying we've seen the best of Peace and Co, but was that run his level? That could be enough to win, but there are two or three big dangers behind who I'm sure we haven't seen the best of them yet. Peace and Co could well win but I very much doubt he'll do an Our Conor, and if he does win, I'm sure he'll have a massive battle up that hill. |
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You have basically said nothing and got splinters, doubtful we will see a horse improve a stone above his rating.
As for Our Connor, that is easy considering he was one of the best juveniles ever. |
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Let me make it clearer then. I've backed Hargam and Top Notch.
Don't care what their OR or RPR is, or how many pounds theyve got to find. From what I've seen on the track they can be just as good as Peace and Co. The Our Conor references were that he was only 1lb ahead of Rolling Star going into the race and beat him 20+ lengths, ie OR means nothing going into the race. |
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completely agree well chief
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It's good to nail colours to the mast and one of the greatest things about the build up. My persoal view is that I haven't been impressed with the Irish form and I'll be surprised if it's their year. I think in a normal year I could see both Top Notch and especially Hargam as likely winners. I don't think this is a normal year and as long as the ground is better than soft I think P@C will announce himself as a better than average winner on the day.
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I sort of thought that is what you meant by your earlier post.
I have backed Hargam as his price represents value too me and doncaster high ratings are never ones to trust. |
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i do agree with you Duffy in that i have noticed the niggles and also expect him to get outpaced - that said i love his attitude. he looks thoroughly genuine like cf and unlike sw (at that stage of his career). he keeps finding and with a quicker pace they will be coming back to him quicker at the end. the crucial thing is that when he hits that flat (ish) spot he maintains his slick jumping as i think this will ensure he doesnt lose too much ground and then i believe he will fly up the hill. Rather than see his style as a negative it actually makes me like him more for the race.
i am more worried about him leaving his race behind saturday |
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Imo would be a mistake running Top Notch again this Saturday,will be his 4th run since Dec 29th.
I know Henderson is having average season by his standards,but why would horse need another race on probable very soft ground again? |
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Been lashing it down in the south all night,I cannot see Top Notch running tmrw,would be madness imo.
It's not as if he needs to run,and a panic thing like we had with Zaynar at Kelso the other Year!! Common sense will prevail............I hope. |
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Top Notch not declared for Adonis.
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Good would have been madness to run again,not sure what Henderson was thinking,too much gin maybe!
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I think Duffy is spot on, if there are a lot of runners it could be too far back before its stamima comes into play. it only appears to pick up very late. my opinion is, Peace & Co can sit behind any pace and forge clear coming round the bend. cheers.
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i am not saying he will win (though i hope he does) pac/hargam may simply be better horses (the relative prices and the majority of people suggest this is the case) - all i am saying is that i dont think the construct of the race is going to be the reason if he doesnt (i have seen so many horses win at festival having been outpaced at one point for it to be a major concern any more)- i think if he doesnt win i think it is much more likely to be because he has found one or two with more ability not because there are a lot of runners- i.e. if pac beats him i would not expect the result to be reversed later in the season in a race with fewer runners.he has stamina and the one juvenile race more than any in the calendar that requires stamina is at chelt in march - i have not seen a juvenile that jumps better/quicker so far and IF he does this on the day he will run his race imo and his ability relative to others will determine where he finishes
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I'm not sure I've seen a Juvie this season hurdle as slick as P&C did at Donny, anyone looking for a chink in his armour won't find it there imo. That said, it's not the be-all, I thought Kings Palace to be easily the tidiest hurdler of last seasons novices before the festival and it didn't get him home, although his fall at the last when well beaten was thru tiredness rather than poor technique.
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And lack of a recent run. Had been off the track a few months also.
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Which probably contributed to the tiredness TC, agreed.
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Dont think anyone would dispute PaC's jumping,its his ability to settle that would worry me if I were on at current price.Both Top Notch and Hargam look a lot less complicated in terms of travelling ok,and both jump ok,Top Notch in particular is very impressive at the hurdles.
Both look to me like they will stay very well,and if PaC don't settle well I would wonder how vulnerable he could be up the hill. |
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I think he settled OK when allowed to dictate from the front at Donny, Bud. The last day they were obviously trying to educate him into potentially been ridden further down the pack. I know he won, but I agree that some of his finish might have been blunted by his fighting for his head, because they weren't going quick enough for him.
They'll be going plenty fast enough in the race so that shouldn't be an issue, however, whilst I appreciate that it's hard to make all in a race like the Triumph, I think it's the only way with this fella. Personally I think he is up to it, even in a field that at this stage looks strong. |
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When people start worrying about a horse settling, I just remind myself about Frankel.
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Reckon he'd have got home over 2 miles up the Cheltenham hill?
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Probably not, but I would have had a couple of pounds on him, just in case.
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BELTOUR
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Beltor, nice effort.
About time Authorized was nh stallion. |
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massively impressive
maybe worried about undulating track but looks very smart |
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gentleman we have a new player 10,9.8s......
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ppower 16 !!! 8s on here
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Two very impressive winners today in Gwencily Berbas and Beltor .... both very interesting for the Triumph Hurdle in my opinion.
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looks stronger than the supreme
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^^^ agree, more depth to the Triumph then any year I can remember - set up nicely.
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Had to be impressed with Beltor there. Taken some of the 16's on offer, so I've got three vs the field now - Hargam, Top Notch and Beltor and really happy with those three.
Glad Henderson withdrew Top Notch after watching that. |
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From the CH4 interview I reckon they may wait for Aintree.
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fancy your chances Wellchief. Peace & Co runs below par think yr in, or even if he doesn't.
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I've added Beltor to Hargam 14/1 NRNB B365.
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