Cheltenham Festival
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Peace & Co
Peace & Co
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kalkir the winner and still 12/1. forgive its poor run over xmas when mullins had a few shorties lose and this is the 1.
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I don't understand seathestars. You've backed two horses which have never seen a hurdle and one which is yet to race? Good luck with that. Would you be interested in buying a lucky dart board?
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yes he pizzed up in a good time but i'd say he beat some very moderate horses myself
moderate horses id agree but you counter your argument yourself with pizzed up in a fast time good uns run fast times against weak opposition, on debut  |
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If we are still on Peace And Co then I'd say it's obvious that to do that to the field they must have been fairly moderate but the fact that the ones in behind have since run well suggests that they weren't that moderate.
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To put some meat on those bones the third that day rated 134 kicked off the track by Peace and Co had earlier run up fairly close behind Golden Doyen and since came out and finished a couple of lengths second to a horse beaten less than nine lengths in the champion bumper. The fifth beaten out of sight went in next time out and now has an official rating of 128.
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Personally don't give two flying monkeys what you think of my approach to this race tbh, i fancied throwing a few very minor small darts at it because my view is we haven't seen the winner out yet. I am in the opinion that the winner is one of the sitting down the page at 100s area right now, i can now say that because we have now had the entries, i looked them all up and thought, ok, my darts will be these. At £2 a pop and at odds of 65+ it's cost me a tenner to find out with the chance of a great trade where i can green up.
Gnashers makes a good point above about kalkir, of those we have seen he is one i do like other than top notch. They are all much of a muchness though. One of us will be right. But in a race as rough as the triumph, which i think will be won by a grinder as often is, i often hold judgement till very late on |
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The winning time was good however the margins in that race were highly exagerated and some horses in there failed to give their true running. For example the third(rated 131) was some way of his best form when we consider he was 13 lengths behind an 128 rated horse(Starchitect) only giving him 3 pounds.
The fifth horse was also way off his true running only coming 2 lengths of a 97 rated horse(Very Intense) on level weights. Also consider that the best form of the 2nd horse(Starchitect) comes on good ground and that day at Doncaster the going was Soft and it was also the 2nd day racing at the track so the ground was pretty much deteriorated which most likely didn't suited him as much as the winner who proved he likes bottomless ground last time out at Chelt. Faugheen's 22 lengths beating of Josses Hill didn't made complete sense until we saw JH 2nd in the Supreme Novices. Will Starchitect follow a similar path franking P&C's form? Will P&C win the Triumph hurdle? We don't know yet. It was only 1 race with lots of dodgy performances in behind(see above) so lets wait for more evidence before calling a horse a superstar/monster. |
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Eeternal,
I aint backed Bristol,im just sticking up for him as I believe hes being harshly treated on here as re yesterdays run....I think hes a lot better than that if he settles. STS, Ive got Top Notch at 33 as well mate,my only bet so far,but I do like your comments about the unknowns at big prices,absolutely nowt wrong with that imo......I shall take a look myself I think. |
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I just think this year especially there is far too many of the buddeliea! What we know about 10 of the 20 or so horses that will run in the triumph so far? The race is always a max field and there will be some out in the next 2-3 weeks. Zarkander never made his debut till late Feb though i don't know of many more. Perhaps some stats people on here can shed some light on that one?
But to be betting 2s the field when there are so many imponderables yet to be known is madness! Imo he aint no world beater anyways. |
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To me this is one of the great pleasures of the festival. The debates where everybody has an opinion and nobody is wrong until the event itself.
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Yep,race is wide open imo.Favourite's price suggests it aint, but that's a false price imo.
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One thing I'd be surprised to see is a maximum field. The Fred Winter has more often resulted in smaller fields for The Triumph. 14,15,17 and not that often above 20 in recent years. My view is that this has resulted in the complexion of the race changing with winners like Soldatino, Zarkandar and Tiger Roll which didn't have much experience and the former two seeing a hurdle for the first time in February which goes against the traditionally established trend of winners being quite experienced given their age.
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Winner (if rated) will be at least 80 on the flat. All placed horses (if rated) should be over 70. If ran on the flat was tried at some stage over 1m4f or has won a G1 hurdle. Probably 1st or placed G1 last time out. No more than six runs over hurdles. If ran at least twice, will have won twice over hurdles. Will have won at least 50% of all hurdle starts. Didn’t run over hurdles before 20th October. Will be unbeaten in UK or IRE or have run at least three times over hurdles. Was favourite or second favourite last time or won a G1. Ran over hurdles somewhere before 31st January. Last run between 19 and 55 days ago. Respect A King and N Henderson. Irish Leopardstown G1 winner to be placed at least. No headgear unless its the first time in NH races. Favourite due.
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One thing I've said after Cheltenham is that the favourite is too short. I don't share timtin's view that the officially given ground at Doncaster was right. I'd say it was more good to soft than genuine soft ground and Cheltenham last time was tiring but not bottomless. I think Peace's great strength is his basic speed and class which in my opinion will shine on good ground. Where I think he may be vulnerable is if it turns into a scrap on soft ground.
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was taken from gault stats
also Only 4 from the last 26 Triumph Hurdle favourites have won (Last 2 to do so Detroit City '06, Katarino '99). Nearly due |
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interesting stats alleged did you not use countrywide flame in your thinking???
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taken from gault stats harry
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fair enough
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Countrywide Flame and Katchit both broke another long term stat in that they have been the only two of the last 18 to have run over hurdles in Britain or Ireland before October 20th. Flame had actually been out twice by that date.
FORM Zarkandar 2011, Made In Japan ’04 and Celestial Halo '08 only winners since ‘90 not to have won twice that season over hurdles. Latter pair were no worse than 2nd last time out. 12 from last 15 won previous race. Two were second and Countrywide Flame finished 3rd in G1 at Leopardstown. 21 from last 21 either unbeaten in UK and Ire or ran at least 3 times previous (Not Celestial who had only ran twice was 2nd last time in an all age novice). 25 from last 29 had between 2 and 6 previous runs that season. (Zarkandar had 3 flat runs in France, Countrywide Flame had 6 hurdle outings before Cheltenham) |
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next up Stratirtect where we'll learn whether P&C is a monster or a monster
 lol.. wake up people... |
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Hargam is a monster!
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"Hargam is a monster!" haha he only beaten him 10 lengths so he is a small monster
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 Not quite so monstrous as PaC. |
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no seriously now, the good ground suited Starchitect way better than last time out. P&C is a very good horse I have no doubt but just think the margins were flattering for him at Doncaster. Sorry for laughing of the monster vs monster but it was funny how CVByrne covered all situations to make P&C look good regardless of what happens today
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Taken some 10/1 eachway on Hargam, looks far better value than P&C as he's progressed with each race and has the right amount of experience now/exposure now.
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Hope you are correct Sint,one of my first ante-posts for Festival.
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nice horse hargam...he seems the type to never win by far but is classy...nice little prep for him but he will need proper good ground to win at cheltenham imo although he has proved he handles cut he moved much better today on better ground, if he does get it he is a major player, a good long term project as well, such a lovely traveller in his races
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Seems to be really progressive. Agree 10's looks a bet.
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How do we know this ground suited Starchitect better? The horse was pulled wide going down the back straight as the jockey didn't look comfortable and he got to work on the horse with the stick on the final bend.
There was a lot to like about Hargam's performance and he goes there with a very decent each way chance in my view. |
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McK30wn 29 Dec 14 21:50 Joined: 01 Feb 08 | Topic/replies: 179 | Blogger: McK30wn's blog
Thing with peace and co is I can't see him improving much more... Think he's played all his cards AMD that's as good as he is, which is very good but with the triumph horses tend to improve 10ln from 1 to the next ie tiger roll last year Still stick by what I said a while back other horse's will improve past the favourite, rather bet hargam against the fav LAY LAY LAY |
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So according to timtin all the horses who were beaten behind Peace and Co ran below form!
Silly season really begins.... |
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Triumph looks like being a very good race this year. Took 10/1 on Hargam EW as was impressed with manner of the win yesterday, but P&C will be a different proposition.
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Agree shockster, looks a good race this year. Hopefully Kalkir can come out and win well on Sunday to put him back in the frame. I think Top Notch can improve too and he'll be headed to the Adonis you'd imagine.
I'm looking forward to the race this year. |
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@CVByrne not only according to me but according to all handicappers(official, TF, RP) they ran way below their best. The exception was Starchitect which we saw he handles good ground yesterday better than what he encountered at Doncaster(his previous form also suggested that).
It seems fair to the established superstars to only call P&C, Hargam, Kalkir, Top Notch, etc. superstars after they prove it not before.... |
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I couldn't disagree more. He clearly didn't like the good ground yesterday as he was off the bridle miles out. I think good ground easy 2 miles is not what he wants. I think he needs more of a stamina test. He'll get that with Cheltenham Hill in the Fred Winter.
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Not that he doesn't like good ground. That good ground on an easy 2 miles is too sharp for him. He has stamina and would be better with a stiffer test on good. He got a stamina test at Donny as the pace was very strong in softer ground.
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My view is that Starchitect was kept off the pace at Donc, then when coming in contention right about the home turn, he then coped with the ground for about 2 furlongs until after the 2nd out when he started to get tired(look at his legs action how short of a stride he was starting to have), eventually after the last hurdle he was so tired that was almost walking. The fact that the jockey conserved his stamina by keeping him off the pace then getting tired so easily tells me he won't perform to his best in a ground that has soft in description.
Then yesterday at Muss what I saw was Starchitect's jockey keeping him close to a very strong pace(getting niggled along to stay close that some mistake with being off the bridle) which produced an overall time close to the record, then at the end of business he was still full of running and never showed any signs of getting tired with his stride never shortening near the end, the winner however was too classy for him and also enjoyed yesterday good ground. |
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The reason Starchitect and the rest of the field were so strung out at Donny was because of the huge gulf in class between them and Peace and Co. He set such a relentless pace that he had them all running on empty. He posted a time 10 seconds quicker than anything run at Donny over the two days. So what you got was a demonstration of the class of the horse, the time backs it up. We know the depth of his quality as no animal can post the time he did hard held without being something special regardless of any rivals in the race.
It is why Timeform handed out such a big rating. So to be in 3rd gear doing that shows he has proper class and plenty of stamina. Starchitect showed he was a good horse by the distance he beat the 3rd home by. While to me the easy 2 miles on good ground yesterday he looked short of pace hence was pushed along a very long way out. Hargam was very impressive but we've now 3 horses Peace & Co has beaten a lot further than Hargam has, so I'd be pretty confident Peace and Co is the superior horse. I'm not saying his price is any value, tbh I'd rather back Hargam to place at the same odds as Peace and Co is to win the Triumph. |
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So just to summarise. The difference between yesterday and Donny. No horse forced Starchitect to go much faster than he was capable of like Peace and Co did. He went as fast as he could and Hargam just cruised by. This is why he was tired at Donny and not at Musselburgh.
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Regarding the time, at the end of the Donc card there was also a class 4 handicap race over same dist. which posted a 2 seconds faster time than that class 2 handicap with which you're comparing P&C overall time. You honestly think that no animal can post a time with 8 seconds better than a 0-120 handicap plodders ?
Regarding the pace, StarCt was kept off the pace at Donc so when coming alongside P&C he only lasted 2 furlongs not because the speed was killing him but because the ground was taking its toll, you can see on video how he started to shorten his strides and after the last he was almost walking. Ground was much rather the cause than speed. Otherwise if you take speed as main reason than how did he followed yesterday such a strong pace posting an overall time just 2 seconds outside record? Ground is the cause, jockey knew that as well thats why he kept him off the pace on demanding ground and kept him to the fore on good ground yesterday. No one is after the rating P&C posted, he was clearly very good. I don't even argue his price as the market decides that. What I'm arguing is that the circumstances made him look better and possibly that will be the highest rating he'll match this season, hopefully he improves in future who knows. There are 3-4 other juveniles who could post near to 150 Tf ratings on their day Hargam being one of them. What I'm arguing is the star attached to a horse before he proves himself because it disconsiders all the proper superstar that we have and which worked hard for their ratings. |