Yeah I do something similar for Cheltenham, and keep a record of every bet I place, but don't bother doing it for normal weekend racing.  To be honest, I very rarely bet on normal race meetings.  I'm quite happy to just watch and top up any Cheltenham bets.

Last five or six years, I've had pretty profitable Cheltenhams, but lost quite a bit betting on random weekend meetings, so cut right back on them now.  Too many "needing the run" etc, so I'd rather focus on the Festival where you know they have all been trained for the day and all should be spot on.

I've also never been any good at handicaps, much better in graded races, so I always place really small stakes on handicaps at Cheltenham.  Too many plots for my liking, so form can be unreliable where one horse sprouts wings from nowhere, whereas the graded races you generally know they have been running to the best of their ability for most of the season.

I'm not knocking Faugheen, and yes, I really like Valseur Lido.  The Drinmore with Apache Stronghold will produce some good winners imo.  Although one is a 2.5m novice chase and one is the cream of the crop of 2m hurdle races - quite different.

As I said, if you've missed the prices on Faugheen, I wouldn't be going in at 5/4, just a personal choice.  5/1 is a good price you've got.

There are 25 other races at the Festival, so don't have to do all your dosh on a 5/4 shot on the first day.

Fair enough well chief,for me I tend to win money on the Tuesday and wednesday,lose the plot on the Thursday and hold my own on the friday

I hope so cv,would just back jezki and tno,couldn't lose then because there the only 3 that can win !

Arctic Fire shortened already......pricewised.

That's price wise for ya!!

My mate was talking to Ruby this week and asked him about who he'd ride. Ruby said it would really be a very tough decision as there is very little between them at home on the gallops and in fact Hurricane Fly usually beats Faugheen.

Obviously Fly never runs to his best at Cheltenham and he's 11yo so I'd be stunned if Ruby didn't ride Faugheen. But it's interesting bit of info with regards to Faugheens talent, Fly beats him more often than not at home. Though Fly is horrible mean b*sterd so he probably give his all on the gallops.

don't believe a word from the Mullins camp .

Sure, and no criticism intenDed CV.

Looks like hes had a setback,not been out for some time now.
He has a couple of entries though I notice,Irish Churdle and the Betfair chase in Feb,and also entered in both the Churdle and Whurdle at the festival.
Has to prove hes fit and then up to the level required,gut feeling is wait till next season to see the best of him,but yes hes certainly entitled to improve at his age.

Now that the entries are out, we might be able to make a better guess at tactics. I would be interested in knowing what people think will make the pace or if it'll be a fast/slow pace? The pace angle is an important part of any Champion Hurdle discussion.

Last year JP supplemented Captain Cee Bee and he set a fierce pace after taking up it up from Our Conor. It resulted in a track record. It probably contributed in bringing the best out of Jezki too. On the other hand, it wouldn't have suited Hurricane Fly who has always faced questions about whether he handles a fast run 2 mile race.

It's interesting so that in addition to Jezki, only Kitten Rock and Plinth are entered. Of the two Plinth is the most likely pacemaker. But let's say he won't run, what else would make it? Zamdy Man would be the other obvious candidate.

I wonder as well if a slowly run race would lead to Hurricane Fly improving on last year's effort. The two years he was beaten, he had to contend with a fast pace whereas the years he's won, it wouldn't have been as strong. Also interesting where Faugheen fits in as he's a prominent runner but I don't think he'd go blazing off in any circumstance. He would however be comfortable in an easy lead.

Going back to JP's other runner, Kitten Rock, I think he could potentially be the Champion Hurdle dark horse. The quotes from O'Grady suggest he's a horse for chases next season but he's improving and if he won at Naas tomorrow, he'd surely head to the Champion Hurdle with an outside chance of getting in amongst the market leaders.

And you hear all 'experts' saying wait until the day to get on Faugheen... lol.. now evens.. come March odds on..

Faugheen is still too short in the market. Taking evs about a horse that will almost certainly be bigger on the day is madness!

E.g if Faugheen is 4/5 morning of the race, Tno will have to be 7/2 or there abouts and what therefore do they make Jezki and the fly That makes the place book a losing one, no chance they will want that plus what offers will they give out morning of the race? It all has a bearing on the markets.

I still think we will see 15/8 3 4 13/2

Put a line through The New One's run today, it won't have any relevance to the Champion Hurdle imo - he almost a backable each way price now.

He was beaten by At Fishers Cross on heavy ground on Trials Day before he won the Neptune.

Not really, he's been a bit of a dodgy jumper in the past, but has largely jumped a lot better this year.  Just couldn't get out of the ground, and was forced right at a few of them, like Apache Stronghold was in the Drinmore by Real Steel.

Binocular struggled to beat the 137 rated Dee Ee Williams in Feb before winning the CH.

In March he'll be at his fav track with his fav ground, so no real concerns from me.  Haven't back him yet, but if he touches 4's I will.

In a perfect world they wouldn't have run him on that ground, but needs must.

He'll be put away now for March, and the horse you saw today will be a shadow of what he will be in a couple of months.

Don't get me wrong, he didn't win like a 6 on shot, and I thought he'd do it better, but I think the brief was to just keep him ticking over until March.

wellchief • January 17, 2015 3:41 PM GMT
Put a line through The New One's run today, it won't have any relevance to the Champion Hurdle imo - he almost a backable each way price now.

He was beaten by At Fishers Cross on heavy ground on Trials Day before he won the Neptune...with a certain Coneygree in 3rd.4

Yeh,i aint backed him either,but I think he will be fine come March,horrible conditions and he had to guts it a bit.

We all know hes better than that,and one has to presume he will be at his best when it matters.

but I was quite pleased as it makes him a more backable price now



my thoughts exactly

Johnny nash