lol Howdie

To anybody who thinks The New One was outpaced in the CH - you're talking absolute rubbish.

He lost anywhere between 5-12 lengths when Our Conor came down, and Sam (to his great credit) gave him loads of time to recover. The reason people think he appears to be outpaced is because Sam was still sitting back when the other horses first go for home and he's obviously very reluctant to send the horse forward 4 furlongs out after losing so much momentum. Mark my words, had he not been hampered, the horse would have won the Champion Hurdle.

ps/ he didnt lose 12 !!!

As for the suggestion that he should run from the front that is an interesting suggestion but the stable has long held the view that he has just one sustained quickening effort in him and that this needs to be used at the right time to show case him at his best I don't think this would be done by running him from the front. Of course the stable could be wrong.

The New One is definitely outpaced just after 3 out but the front 4 are properly rowing away from before that point in the race and they clearly quicken away after 3 out, STD i feel is caught out a little and loses 3 lengths. He is outpaced i feel due to this. Then the front 3 slow from just before the last and up the hill BUT TNO defo is allowed this time to quicken himself but the race is all over and he is a fast finishing 3rd.

My take on the race is this, would he have won if solely not hampered, probably not, would he have won if A: not hampered and STD started rowing at the same time as the 3 ahead of him, probably, would he have won if B: still hampered and STD started to row at the same time, i feel it certainly would have been a close finish!

I am a fan of the horse and backed him today, yes at 7/2. (I also added tiger at 25s and already on irving at 33s) Ive only backed him today though given the support for Faugheen has completely dried up on here and was allowed to go to 5 on the market. Still using betfair exchange as the holy grail to antepost punting. Every horse race is different, and next years race will be no different. If he is given a clean run round, without any serious errors, he will be bang there again! Though i still reserve the right to back him again and then do Faugheen at a later date pmsl, though i may well not now as if faugheen does come out and win easily as i think he might do, and go short on here as again i feel he might do, well ive nailed my colours to the mast already and will take the hit.

gone - win

^^^ Good post.

There is no real knowing where they would have finished but my hunch is almost a 3 way photo. Tno gets outpaced because std is still holding onto tno and looking after him at least half a furlong after mtoy and jezki start properly race. Then std realizes this, jumps 3 out, changes his hands and also goes for it, tno being more of a stayer it seems to me it takes him slightly longer than the others to get up to full speed and the rest of course is history.

SEATHESTARS....NO1 • October 30, 2014 5:49 PM GMT
There is no real knowing where they would have finished but my hunch is almost a 3 way photo...... if me aunty had bollox she.....you know the rest

Good post Tomdeane.

Its an interesting one but for me his hurdling at the crucial stage, when the taps are turned on at the top of the hill, is the biggest concern.

Howdi, are you taking the mickey??

Anyway, fwiw heres my thoughts

Going on their form from Kempton I don't see much between TNO and MTOY,they look really closely matched, so on that basis I think if either lost that amount of ground it would result in them finishing behind the other, and as Jezki only just won the race over MTOY I think it fair to say that Jezki would not have beaten TNO if he had lost that ground.
So overall if we can assume that all were primed on the day, I would have the 3 of them pretty close and if no incidents in the race my feeling is TNO would have won.
Still its just opinion and all hypothetical, but I think its interesting to discuss.

lets hope the irish trainers grow some balls Jezki v Faugheen at xmas - Game on

I'd doubt it if he could make up to win a Champion, he might progress to be good enough to run in one. But it's not hard for a good horse to win in the same fashion off a mark of 139. You need to be near 170 to stand a chance of winning a Champion Hurdle. What would a horse with 30lbs in hand do in that little race today?

He wouldn't be for me in the Champion but no denying he was very impressive today and it can be done - Sizing Europe won the Greatwood off 137 in the year that he ran in the Champion. Of course he didn't win, but I think most people concede he looked all over the winner before going wrong on the home turn.

Irving seems to be a flat track horse

That was a bad fall there for Irving and thank goodness he was only winded. looked mighty happy with himself in pictures afterwards walking back and am certainly not ripping up my 33/1 ticket for the churdle just yet. Still optimistic. He wouldn't have been totally wound up for that, looked to me like he was about to take it up before falling and i do think he would have won that beating some good improving horses in a handicap. He still needs to improve but not a no hoper.

Would really like to see him run on good ground at Cheltenham's December meeting.

It was a speculative punt i admit and i am not the only one on here to give him a mention. 33/1 it's cheap enough to have a look too. He was made joint fav for a supreme novices for a reason too. He was obviously wrong as he never went a yard in it. To say it was merely just down to the ground and track is laughable as he was beat after the first!
Yes i am happy with that first start back, was a heavy fall at the last and i for one is a believer that he would have won that running away.

Would not have won that running away imo,also accident waiting was his jumping, watch the whole race again was wrong at more than one hurdle, just my opinion.

Yep i've read that above comment brandy. It's what i've been saying about him being wrong. Want to see him at Cheltenham on good ground again, as long as he don't remember that fall i think we will see the potential i think that horse has shine through!

Agreed thunder, he does have that much to find with the top three. But admittedly, so does almost all of the field barring the top 3 in the market. And as a horse race often pans out, even if all of the top 3 make it to the race, they very likely would not be finishing 1st 2nd and 3rd. Something has and surely will improve through the ranks as the season rolls on and for me Irving is by far and away the most darkest of them as we don't know still as yet even though sent off joint fav for the Supreme novices how well he would have fared in that race had he been fully fit. Of the others with potential, Vaniteux would he really be aimed at this? Tiger Roll, i have backed him at 25s but now injured am not so sure, Un De Sceaux, give me a break, Vautour likely to be sent over fences and now being done at 46s on here i guess this is the way he will be heading. What are we left with, bound to be as always a handicapper that will win one or two easily and be aimed at it but will go off a double fig price on the day.

As the op says, the value is not with the top 3 and although it is all speculation at this stage and we are all admittedly guessing backing beasts at 33/1+ is cheap and we only need one in the frame to make a nice profit. Also i have a feeling too that we could be in for a Sublimity kind of season. And i also backed him too after finishing down the field in his Supreme novices!