The top 3 in the market will finish in the top 3,there head and shoulders above the rest of them !

Faugheen will improve and who is to say the other 2 won't,just think they are at least a stone better,vaniteaux and while I accept  Irving wasn't right were beaten fair and square by sgt reckless,who then came out and got stuffed by faugheen !

I thought vaniteaux effort yesterday
Was top draw , plenty of weight, needed the ran
SIDS went 33/1 Which I took a little

Glad to see Iriving put his best foot forward yesterday.  Needs to improve a stone at least to challenge for a Champion Hurdle but it can only be good for the race if some others can creep into the reckoning.

Paul Nichols thinks there is bags of improvements in him yet, and will be better on spring ground, so heres hoping.

Couldn't help think that Faugheen would have put that race to bed by 2 out yesterday though.

A few crabbed the form of the Fly's final win over Jezki and Our Conor last year because Captain Cee Bee was only 2 lengths away, but in the end it wasn't really relevant.

Irving beat Arctic Fire much easier in the Fighting Fifth, so don't know how bad his infection is from Kempton or that was just a smoke screen for a poor run or if he is even an intended runner now?

Diakali is the other Mullins runner that I like, actually liked him for the World Hurdle, but doubt we'll see him this year now.

I'd throw Josses Hill in this if I were Hendo. Keep his novice status for next year and with Vaniteux obviously not good enough, it gives the stable a half decent a chance.

Arctic Fire needs a very strongly run race to show his best form, he's one of those horses who will look worse than he is in slower run races. He needs good ground and fast pace, like in the County Hurdle and at Leopardstown. He has Cheltenham form and he looks the best bit of value left in this race tbf. The pace the Champion will be run at will be right up his street.

You'd be very surprised if the winner didn't come from the top 3 in the betting though. I'd love it if Fly could get placed, ride him like normal, not up forcing the pace like last year and he'll stay on up the hill hopefully and grab 3rd.

you're always gonna get the 'what has he beaten' arguments etc, but thats the chance you take at the odds now. i'd rather take 5/4 Faugheen than Arctic Fire for instance. There are few horses that can win.

Faugheen: Unbeaten and is yet to come off the bridle, outclassed opposition in every race despite inconsistent jumping
Jezki: Current champ given a good ride last year, hasn't inspired this year behind HF but Cheltenham suits him more and he wants a very strong pace
The New One: We know he has his limits, has done what's expected this year in picking off inferior opposition
Hurricane Fly: Immense on soft ground in Ireland but has shown frailties at Cheltenham and it's hard to see him bouncing back and winning it again

In terms of winning it you can forget the rest.

I've backed Faugheen yes but think he deserves to be even money. Only unexposed horse in the race who is yet to come off the bridle. Yes I concede his jumping can improve but it hasn't stopped him yet, he clattered the 4th last, 3rd last and 2nd last in the Neptune yet still on the bit turning for home. I get the feeling he is a level above TNO. He is a good honest horse who gets the job done but he is not far clear of Jezki in my view.

I think it's going to be a very obvious 123 being Faugheen, TNO, Jezki.

You also have to factor in that Twiston Davies will be following Ruby and riding to beat him. Outriding Ruby at Cheltenham is a massive task in itself.

At that price you can back both.
My point is hes worth an interest cos hes obviously improving and hes available at big odds.
I aint saying he will win the race,but if he improves again in his next run his price will shorten.

I think The New One's 4.5l defeat of Vaniteux giving him 8lbs is the best 2m performance of the season.

If I ever had doubts about The New One they were gone after that race.

I'll probably end up having some sort of bet on the Fly. I have ever year since 2009 when he didn't turn up, so it would be weird to let him go unbacked in some form.

Will be something else if Fly could manage to win at the age of 11 without Ruby on his back. Nobody can honestly believe that is going to happen. But I'd love him to place and get Paul Townend into the winners enclosure on his back to lap up some cheers.

Just really not a race for making money in this year. I'll just enjoy it.

i dont really think the neptune field needs considering. when was the last time it was full of top notchers?

Do people really want to back Faugheen at 5/4 though? Like how much money are you willing to risk at that price?

As die hard fan of Hurricane Fly as I am, I had to have my smallest bet on him in 2012, as it was just too short odds and he was reigning champ he'd got everything in that field held on form. Yet he lost, albeit clearly had problems that season running well below form and again (actually worse at Punchestown 2l defeat of Zaidpour when trading over 3 times his odds in running). But he looked visually good beating nothing in the Irish Champion Hurdle on his first start to the season.

But still for slightly better odds you get Faugheen who has faced no Grade 1 level horse in his entire career?

I dunno, I suppose I've just learnt lessons the hard way over the years. I actually managed to muster up 500 quid to back Kauto Star at 2/5 in the 2008 Betfair Chase. Thoughts why not just go for it, it's a "free" 200 quid.

Snoopy Loopy won that race.

The same people that were saying Irving,tiger roll and vaniteux were value are now looking for something else,there is only 3 horses that can win and its been like that mtoy was injured,faugheen will beat jezki and the new one will be 3rd,well chief vaniteuax is a handicapper what rock on ruby stuffed !

I remember the 2009 festival when Sizing Europe (2/1), Voy Port Ustedes (4/5), Kasbah Bliss (10/11) and Kauto Star (7/4) all couldn't lose.  Only one won.

Very risky taking short prices in these Championship races.

CUFC, that was Vaniteux's second hard race in pretty much two weeks. He's 154 beaten almost 5 lengths getting 8 pounds, and The New One had loads left in the tank. Rock solid form.

hindsights all well and good...i think you're thinking of binocular though at 6/4 cos europe went wrong the year before

Ah sorry yes, 2009 was Punjabi.

Just trying to make the point that these races are often tougher than they look, and you need fairly deep pockets to make a decent return at those odds.

As a £20 punter, I wouldn't be bothered trying to make £20 profit on Faugheen, I'd rather put it on TNO and try and get near the £80-£100 mark, or Jezki ew.

off topic but, Chief do you keep records of all your bets?

It was 2009 mate where those shorties got beat. Voy Port odds on in Ryanair won by Imperial Commander, Kasbah Bliss unplaced in World Hurdle at 10/11 and Binocular beaten at 6/4 by Punjabi. Only Kauto and Master Minded won at short odds in the big races at 7/4 and 4/11.

Yeah, keep a record back to 2011 I think. Was looking at it the other day and cringed at some. Examples in 2011 include:
Rock Noir - Arkle
Franklino - Triumph
Ghizao - Arkle
Knight Pass - Bumper
Captain Cee Bee - Champion Chase.

Hurricane Fly, Bensalem and Big Bucks got me out of a hole that year. That year Willie Mullins won top trainer at 8's! He's probably 8's on now!

I napped Oscars Well in the Neptune as well.

Don't know what hurts more, that or Western Warhorse last year. Both still keep me awake at night!

Sizing got beat by Katchit in 2008 though. 2009 Punjabi won and beat Binocular.

I mean keep a record of every bet you ever place, does wonders for learning from past mistakes. Also lets you keep accurate p&l. Just put it all in excel or google docs. I pick over a season the when it's over, figure out what was good or bad. For example last season mid week betting p&l was so low that it wasn't worth doing unless a horse tracker horse or graded race is run. This season I'm looking at amount won on horses odds less than 3/1 and above 3/1 and seeing how much better bigger odds horses are to bet on on return on investment. Then if you can see consistent profit over seasons it gives confidence to up stakes.

Worth doing so you can see what you're good / bad at and what to focus on / exclude