Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 812 comments are related to the topic:
The Champion Hurdle
The Champion Hurdle
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 812
|
By:
Budd, correct there is no form in the book. It is similar to last year with In De Sceaux not having any form. The difference is that this year Faugheen will run. Faugheen has no collateral form as WPM mollycoddles The Fly to win G1 races without all the opposition. That's his prerogative though, but not best for racing IMHO.
|
|
By:
Wicketd, imo to say a horse is much better without evidence.....thats nonsense!! And I stick to my opinion that a horse that's beaten not much so far, is labelled as much better than the current Champion Hurdler,as an insult.
Anyway its clear we differ on this....fair enough. |
|
By:
Eighteen of the last nineteen winners all ran in the same calendar year.
Just one of the last twenty Christmas Hurdle winners has gone on to win the Champion Hurdle in the same season  |
|
By:
No mate it aint best for racing,keeping UDS under wraps was not best for racing either.
Wonder what he would have done had Faugheen been on the CH scene last year?? |
|
By:
I don't think TNO ran to his best yesterday, but those in behind suggest he was forced to put a performance better than any of his in this season
But do you think that Faugheen run in the Christmas Hurdle was up to his best ability or do you think that he had more to give? That bare form alone puts him above TNO with several form lines, as for Jezki and Fly yes we don't have yet a reliable formline to prove it one way or another but will Jezki come to his best come March? will Fly find the uphill too much again? They have more questions to answer than Faugheen. |
|
By:
Imo Faugheen has the questions to answer,not the two who have seen it and done it.
People were moaning about how clis Captain Cee Bee got to Hf and Jezki it meant nothing on the day. |
|
By:
**close
|
|
By:
id imagine faugheen was trained to win the grade 1 as that was the mid season target, just like TNO was trained to win his mid season target the bula, I think vaniteux is better than purple bay, whats your opinion?
|
|
By:
How can a horse that's the reigning Champion Hurdler have more questions than a horse just out of novice company???
|
|
By:
They have more questions to answer than Faugheen
??????? |
|
By:
because he's not a top notch champion? you have to remember he was given a brilliant ride by geraghty, now mccoy on? no thanks
|
|
By:
He's even money for the CH after not even beating a top class 2 mile horse over hurdles and never going over hurdles at top 2 mile pace.
 |
|
By:
what about the pace he set at punchestown that killed everything off turning in?
|
|
By:
Bit of a difference to a CH though - that race had Valsuer Lido, a 2.5m chaser, then the likes of Wicklow Brave, Sgt Reckless, Real Steel etc - not Champion Hurdle horses.
If he can repeat that in the Champion I would be amazed. |
|
By:
no agreed but punchestown was arguably his best round of jumping setting a solid pace over 2m
i think in the champion ruby will ride him to take it up around 3 out and stretch after the second last |
|
By:
Jezki has to be the value bet here now. I would rather BJG on then McCoy again tbf but that won't happen.
Faugheen is way too short now. We know as much as we're going to by the time of the festival now and fair enough if you're already on at bigger prices but he's never a bet at this price. |
|
By:
the thing with jezki for me is has he gone on from my last year? i dont think he has
i know he's only trained with one day in mind, but he won last year's renewal like a proper stayer given a masterful ride by geraghty he's looked laboured to be in two runs so far this year. i know hurricane is a very special horse, but take him out lto and jezkis all out to beat arctic fire, and hurricane is gradually regressing in his second year out of novice company i'd expect him to show a bit more than he has done so far |
|
By:
Very dubious admittedly, as formlines usually are, but Arctic Fire was beaten a half length in the county by Lac Fontana who went on to win the g1 at Aintree and who was beaten by Faugheen by 8l. Arctic Fire has since gone on to get pretty close to HF & Jezki.
|
|
By:
Artic fire may well beat beat Faugheen in march.
|
|
By:
@alleged why is Vaniteux better ?
Because he got beat by Rock On Ruby 3 lengths while Purple Bay beat ROR by 5 lengths ? ROR gave Van 8 pounds and PB 13 pounds, take 2 pounds per length it puts PB aprox 10 pounds ahead of Vaniteux Because Vaniteux beat Blue Heron by 6 lengths(with the pound diff included) while PB beat BH by 9 lengths ? On this form line it puts PB 3 lengths ahead, aprox 6 pounds. PB is an solid 160 performer and could still play a part in the CH. @duffy "never going over hurdles at top 2 mile pace" Ruby said that in the Christmas H they went a champ pace and he's being backed by the overall time that day which was the best in the last 20 years on that going. Also watch his Neptune, his time from 4 out is closely matched with Jezki's CH however Faugheen had already covered 2 miles by that point. @Wicketd "in his second year out of novice company i'd expect him to show a bit more than he has done so far" Good point. Jezki has a big question mark which is will he bring his best form in March? He hasn't shown anything so far to suggest he's better than his odds therefore I don't see where people get the value from but I hate to see punters fallacy trown around: "if he's won CH once he'll surely go close again" Anything can happen, horses that we expect to be placed will most likely not get placed, there are lots of improvers: Arctic Fire, Purple Bay, Irving who could place depending on how the race is run. The Fly can place and TNO or Jezki might not, or the other way around. Last year CH will have nothing to do with this year's CH because there aren't all the same horses in it; Faugheen will change the game for everyone and will most likely stretch them from 3 out and those who can stay with his speed till the end then fair game but I doubt that very much. |
|
By:
Anything can happen, horses that we expect to be placed will most likely not get placed, there are lots of improvers: Arctic Fire, Purple Bay, Irving who could place depending on how the race is run. The Fly can place and TNO or Jezki might not, or the other way around.
So anything can happen except Faugheen not winning? That's impossible? |
|
By:
Another one pooh poohing the Champion Hurdler....carry on!! Loads to prove,unlike the out of novice company Faugheen whose been there and done it.......oh hang on!!
Has anyone considered that Faugheen just might not be as good as Jezki and TNO?? Just a thought. Just could not make it up!!!! |
|
By:
Chief, their seems to be no reasoning with the Faugheen pocket talkers, well that's how it seems to me anyhow.
|
|
By:
no ones saying he definitely IS better, but we opine that we 'believe' he is. that is called a judgement budd and i'd rather make a judgement than sit on the fence
|
|
By:
jeeesus tintin your talking about 2 races over diferent distances
|
|
By:
Where are you getting 2lb = a length?????
1lb surely!!!! |
|
By:
Have backed Faugheen at 6s. Wouldnt touch him at the current price, I like him dont get me wrong but lot of ??? yet. Cant have him winning the Champion without coming off it so the EVS is a bit silly.
Although think the point that Faugheen has only beat 25-1 shots(at the time thats what Irving was) for the champion. With all due respects on that rule that just leaves Hurricane on this year. Top four are top animals cant wait |
|
By:
Timtin, you put
Anything can happen, horses that we expect to be placed will most likely not get placed, there are lots of improvers: Arctic Fire, Purple Bay, Irving who could place depending on how the race is run. The Fly can place and TNO or Jezki might not, or the other way around. Just one sentence more (in bold) and I would have agreed with what you've said: Anything can happen, horses that we expect to be placed will most likely not get placed, horses that we expect to win may not win, there are lots of improvers: Arctic Fire, Purple Bay, Irving who could place depending on how the race is run. The Fly can place and TNO or Jezki might not, or the other way around. |
|
By:
budd its easy to sit there and say 'he has a lot to find' or because he hasnt won a champion hurdle he cannot be considered better.
why dont you tell us how good you think faugheen is? how do you think he'll run in the race if all the main ones are on form? the whole point of gambling is to make judgement calls not to sit on the fence. |
|
By:
But ive ben reading stuff today like....wins easily and much better etc etc.
And judgements based on no substantial evidence are rather flimsy. |
|
By:
but thats what seperates the good judges from the bad, no? how else do you bet if you dont make judgements and just say 'this might happen, or that might run well'
|
|
By:
will captain haddock be putting in an appearance....
|
|
By:
I too think Faugheen will win. He looks very very good and nothing has been able to get him out of 2nd gear yet.
Of course his biggest challenge is still to come but him not running in a Champion before is not a negative. Not many races are run at that pace, on that ground with the best 2m hurdles in opposition. It only happens once a year. Jezki was winning last year at his first attempt. The New One proved to me last season he can not win a Champion so Jezki is Faugheens biggest danger. He is only 7, been in the top three 13 out of 14 hurdle races and is open to improvement. I think it's between these two. Obviously at the prices Jezki is the play, but who I think will win is Faugheen. Wouldn't be surprised if he won easily. |
|
By:
Right now I think TNO will win,i thought he would probably have won last year or gone very close anyway,and I think his jumping has improved.
I will wait till the day to bet though,ive just had a bit at nice price on Arctic Fire antepost,he looks to be fast improving. As for Faugheen,hes never been a price that I considered tempting. He may well be a superstar,hes looked very impressive,but needs to prove hes up to the level required.....gut feeling is he may well be,but im obviously not as confident as some are,thats for sure. |
|
By:
loads to prove? you're talking about Faugheen as if he's coming after his maiden race.. I got to admit thats how I saw his price in the Neptune last year(I was on RS btw) and couldn't understand why he's so short and after seeing him how made so many mistakes in the vital part of the race and yet still managed to hold up in front it blew me away. Then to hear Mullins thought Vautor was better lol when we saw how Faugheen smashed through the hurdles and all those who managed to live with his speed were dropping away like flies up the hill but not Faugheen who was up there with the pace and still managed to drove clear to 4 lengths... if you weren't impressed by that then you should've been impressed how he left them all behind at P'town how many lengths 10-15 while Ruby was hugging him in the last furlong.. he doesn't comes into this CH with his maiden race, he comes into CH with Chelt form, with outstanding performances and with recent top-class and consistent form.
"So anything can happen except Faugheen not winning? That's impossible?" No, Faugheen can lose, all stats are against him, only 1 horse won the CH without a run in the same year, he'll need to be exceptional to beat a dual champion, the current champion and to break the stats. I believe he's capable of doing just that and I know he'll be very hard to beat if he brings the same form shown to this point, nevermind if he improves.. |
|
By:
Any of TNO, Faugheen, Jezki or Fly could win this.
|
|
By:
"1lb surely!!!!"
over 4 miles will surely take 1lb. Over short distances its between 2 and 3 depending on the pace of the race. Either way you take it, the math is still the same, if you took 1lb just divide my calculations by 2 and you'll still arrive at Purple Bay being better than Vaniteux.. |
|
By:
You may use 1-3lbs over sticks but I wouldn't and nor do OR.
5f: 3lbs per length 6f: 2.5lbs per length 7f-8f: 2lbs per length 9-10f: 1.75lbs per length 11-13f: 1.5lbs per length 14f: 1.25lbs per length 15f+: 1lb per length From BHA. |
|
By:
@alleged "jeeesus tintin your talking about 2 races over diferent distances "
Yeah it was approximate, and if you take it literally over shorter distances the poundage is worth more, therefore the PB beating of ROR by 5 lengths is worth more in pounds than over 2 and half miles. I made an allowance in Vaniteux favour but he still ended up on the short side behind PB... @brandyontherocks yeah those are for flat. For jumps they take 1lb per length for all trips except the marathons. However I wasn't using their poundage methodology because they don't take into consideration the pace, ground etc. |
|
By:
This is another one that'll run and run, but in recent years at this stage of the season I can only ever really remember Quevega, Big Bucks and Sprinter being odds on.
All those three had beaten all of their prospective Cheltenham opponents well and proved they were a cut above the rest. After his runaway Arkle win (against top quality opposition), Sprinter put in superb performances, but crucially, he beat Sanctuaire, his chief rival (rated 168) comprehensively in January. Big Bucks had won numerous races on the trot, but critically, beat chief rivals for his World Hurdle crown in key trials like the Long Distance Hurdle and The Long Walk. Up and coming rivals like Dynaste were put in their place. Quevega was always a cut above the rest, but she was only odds on after a couple of mares victories where she proved she was a cut above against the rest. Faugheen doesn't really have any of the traits above. He was a good novice winner like Sprinter, but then Sprinter crushed direct rivals for the QMCC - Faugheen hasn't. Big Bucks had won multiple races at the Festival, and again, had beaten propesed key rivals in trials races. While Faugheen looks exceptional, he should not be odds on, when he has yet to directly beat a chief rival. Using half @rsed form lines, he beat by x, but this one by him by y getting 8lbs is not the same as actually going eye ball to eye ball with a realistic Champion Hurdle challenger. From my point of view, and I presume a few others, Faugheen could be anything, he really could. He could walk over them, but at the moment his price is false. His backers need to accept that he does have questions to answer, as he has yet to face a major realistic rival. If his price was the same as proven ones like The New One and Jezki then that's fine, but we are talking about an odds on shot in January - he is priced up like he is over the line already. You have to except that The New One and Jezki are serious oppostion, who improve for that hill and good ground. You can look at all form this year, but both of those two run several pounds better at Cheltenham. |