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I'd disagree with that view entirely. A 1.5l defeat of Arctic Fire isn't a 170 performance in my book. Especially when the 3 horses behind him are too slow for the sprinted second half of the race the way Ruby set it up.
Faugheen most certainly didn't run to a 170 prior to Cheltenham either. Not in a million years is defeating a poor field at Kempton worthy of it at all. Faugheen simply lacks any serious rival in this division. So to judge him is very difficult. Hopefully Peace and Co can improve to be a rival next season. |
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He was rated for Kempton 169 with RP, 169 with OR and 171+ with TF and basically all handicappers were proven right, beating an 160 rated animal by 9 lengths without applying any pressure amounts for ~170 any way you measure it. Arctic Fire trainer was expecting a big improvement, basically in all interviews prior to CH he spoke 5 seconds about Faugheen then 1 minute about Arctic Fire, so his improvement past Jezki and Fly was unsurprising.
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this Pub thing sounds way too convenient CV. Now you're trying to play down the stake of it..it's only £50 so doesn't make much difference to the P&L. Considering everything else you post on there is staked at £10-£30 I would say it does.
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I had £4650 bet on the 4 days and £1300 in antepost losses. A £50 bet isn't big in relation to Cheltenham. I've already got £150 bet on Vautour for next year's Gold Cup. £100 on Peace and Co.
I really don't remember placing the bet at all and it is not the only time this season I've not remembered placing a bet. It happens. At the end of the day it amounts to £100 more in profit than taking the 2/1 that was on offer with Ladbrokes in the morning of the race. It's a fraction of the over all profit. I think I'll do a full update on my antepost bets at weekly or fortnightly intervals next season so as to catch any thing like that happening again. |
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The New One looks to have some sort of physical problem to me the way he has been jumping everything out to the right in his last 2 races (even the win against Vaniteaux to a lesser degree)
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wonder if they look at the world hurdle for the new one never gonna win a champion
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I can't watch this year's renewal. It was an absolutely farce. We didn't learn anything from it, as we all knew Faugheen was the quickest anyway, and Ruby was allowed to set a ridiculously sedate pace. I don't know how AP and STD expected to quicken past him from a crawl. Saying that, Faugheen was still very impressive, but the way the race was ridden left a sour taste in my mouth.
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it was a fast start, slow in the back straight and very fast finish(from 4out to the last they recovered 2.3s - 12 lengths from the Supreme leader/s which they've lost in the back straight), with the overall time faster than standard, not a farce by any means but a bit tactical which the adversaries of Faugheen thought was a good thing as they truly believed at the time their horses will be faster on the run-in.
Its easy to say in hindsight that everyone knew Faugheen was the quickest, when in fact he still had to prove that as the Kempton race only proved Faugheen stayed really well. Prior to this we only knew of Faugheen turn of foot from Punchestown and from Ascot when those races were slowly ran and he had to quicken away from them but those were against much inferior horses(Valseur Lido, Blue Fashion) than Jezki TNo and Fly. BG, McCoy and NTD all said Faugheen was a sort of grinder knowing he'll make the running so the scenario they envisioned (catching him later on) was put into practice only that Ruby believed his horse will have a better turn of foot as he said in the RUK interview this morning: "I had plenty of confidence in Faugheens turn of foot and I didn't mind running a steady run race either" |
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It is possible that Walsh kept the pace fairly sedate so as to increase the chances of the fly getting a place. The one horse out of the leading contenders that would have suffered under a blinding place was the fly. If it had been a truer run race I think Faugheen would have won by a bigger margin and I've yet to hear of a feasible argument as to how the result would have differed if the race had been run differently. The best horse clearly won without jumping convincingly or coming out of 3rd gear. The expectation of many was that Faugheen would win by 5 lengths pulling up and it's only the close proximity of Arctic Fire to the winner that has cast doubt over the level of performance of the winner. If Arctic Fire goes on to prove himself a top class horse then the quality of the race will be seen in a different light.
@cv I wish I had been aware of the 2/1 on Faugheen that you claim was available in the morning cos I didn't see anywhere near 2/1 offered. 6/4 was available for 15 minutes and thereafter he was generally 11/10 or shorter all morning. |
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So what do the stakes mean your put up CV? It's no even clear on the blog what £10 relates to but around December time you claimed to be up 112 points, so £10 per point. It's very odds to put up stakes yet record the total in Points profit.
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* not clear
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Timtin - The thing that annoys me about the race is that Jezki was never given a chance to win it. Given the amount of times he gets beaten in slowly run races in Ireland, I find it unbelievable that his jockey wouldn't attempt to do something to have the race ridden his way. He was always going to struggle to beat Hurricane Fly the way it panned out, never mind Faugheen.
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Yes but no one wants to go up front because they're a target to late finishers, I doubt that even BG would've made that call so early during the race. They could've forced Faugheen in making mistakes by taking him on earlier but that would've played right into his tune as he'll jump better and win by further with a strong gallop. I agree it would've also suited Jezki but some could argue that McCoy did attempt to put it up from 3 out which would've looked brilliant had he won.
The races in Ire were truly slowly run affairs with the ground not favouring Jezki.. this was a moderate pace only slowed down in the back straight, overall time 7th in last 20 renewals and only separated by ~1 second between the top 7, bar Istabraq's 2000 - 3 seconds faster and last year's Jezki which was 6 seconds faster thanks to a mad pace early co-set by Our Conor which probably caused the fatal mistake. Also the going in those instances were on the firm side of good so I would certainly not define this year renewal a farce or a slowly run race. |