Trigger, there will be plenty who agree with you but i dont think HF wants a sprint off anymore. Clocked his fastest time round the course last year but couldnt live with the younger horses pace on that ground after they got a bit of a breather at the top of the course. Loose tactics imo..

Faugheen - could make all but would prefer to take most hurdles in his own time and then batter through the last two.
TNO - would love a slow pace and sprint off
The fly - wants a strong pace on slower ground, hope it unsettles TNO/Faugheen and then eyeball Jezki. If its fast ground hes screwed whatever.
Jezki - Difficult if it isnt fast ground. Wants a strong pace to pressure TNO and faugheen but will be wary of HF. If he gets fast ground then HF less of a worry and wants same as last year (obviously!).

Great comment, ben. Pointless to speculate in such detail. Though the idea of Kitten Rock being sacrificed seems strange to me. Always been held up and can't see any reason why Faugheen would not make the running.

These non-runners playing into the hands of TNO......... BYE,BYE field if he is near them turning for home.......... the best finisher up the Cheltenham hill of this lot. And good to soft yes please. Now Sam no panicking coming down to the last just pop it and the horse will do the rest.

Based on how he finished last year if TNO is upsides at the last I'd fancy him to win the race but I can't see the race developing into a straight out sprint from there. At worst Jezki will take it up from 2 out and Faugheen may well want to turn on the gas even earlier. Then STD will have a decision to make. Go with the 2 strong stayers who can sustain a prolonged effort and run the risk of blowing up completely or pace the horse for one big maximum effort closer to home in the hope of closing the gap and swooping late.

I have a suspicion that Arctic Fire and even Hurricane Fly will be ridden to be placed. If Faugheen is the machine that some think he could be, and both TNO and Jezki go with him from about 3 out (they will have no choice but to go if they have winning aspirations imo) and find out they can't stay with him therefore paying the price late on, we could well see a Mullins 1-2-3.

Looks like JP has opened his wallet all the 5s gone and a boat load on here backing up.

Wont happen till day of the race trigg.
Collectively betting to best price of around 110% that will close in to around 101/2% ish on day of race.
Not gonna shove it out yet when still betting NRNB no rule 4 in event of Non Runner

TNO - would love a slow pace and sprint off

Disagree, if it's slow then when they step it up later the exact same thing will happen to him as it would earlier in the race, he'll get outpaced.

He will get outpaced, he'll have to take that particular hit and hope that he isn't too far behind when he begins to pick them back up.

His ideal race would be one where they go very quick but he doesn't get involved in it and they kill themselves earlier than they should, giving him plenty of race left to pick them up from.

Trace in which ROR killed the front runners around him leaving the fly to stay on past dead horses would be an ideal race for TNO.

His 2 haydock runs and Aintree last year showed no sign of high cruising speed and turn of foot just stayed on gamely to beat rivals that he should have beaten readily.

What about his Kempton performances Geoff?

just one point that I believe has been overlooked, are faugheen backers concerned or not by his lack of experience just the 6 runs over hurdles....

and he had come from an established flat career

In the last in 22 years the single winner without prep runs(ROR doesn't counts as he had a proper racecourse gallop 2 weeks previously) was Granville Again in 1993 who came directly after taking 3rd spot in the Christmas Hurdle.

I don't have the older data but I did studied 1952 CH in particular and the horse racing pundits from that era mentioned the lack of prep runs as a huge negative for 2 horses who went into the `52 CH without having a run in the calendar year, one of them went into 4th(Average). So I assume in the history there were maybe 2-3 winners without racing fitness from maybe 300 triers. What we do know for sure is that it has been 22 years since it last happened. A huge stat to overcome, an athlete going into the best competition in the world without racing fitness.

Probably drifting on drying ground that will be against it??

To be fair to TNO he does have form on soft,the Kempton race was fairly soft,but some of those runs where hes criticised have been worse than soft,and that Haydock race he struggled in was desperate going.

Does jezki need a really strong pace? I think he might.

I really don't think mr Mullins would get the prep for such a huge favourite wrong.

If it loses  then it's bread and water all week here.

Yeah that one stumped me too. Honestly didn't remember I'd placed any bet on Faugheen at all. Only found it when I was doing my compiling of all my bets. Asked about it in our WhatsApp chat and a mate said he remembers me placing it in the pub. :/

If I'd fancied Faugheen for the Champion hurdle back when I wrote the thread, trust me I'd have sung his praises having done so for the Neptune the season before. It was a simple bet place when drinking and totally forgot about it.

Only 50 quid bet so hardly matters at all to the overall p&l for the festival. I do place a very large amount of antepost bets. I didn't fancy him for the race up until the week of Cheltenham where he appeared winner by default. tbf I've paced a few bets by mistake etc.. take Champagne James for the Nov h/c.

Well, I mean by default was that there wasn't anything in the race you could really take him on with. That not only was he always most likely the best horse in the race but his rivals dropped away in my estimation, along with the ground it meant really he was an odds on shot to win in the week leading up to the race. He was a good winner of a weak race.

Plodder

the bar was set high enough but that doesn't mean the horses in behind are weak, TNO beat everything in England this season, Fly AF and Jezki beat everything in Ire, so not a weak race by any means, just a high standard set by a horse which we have too look back in history to have something to compare him with. He's already posted 2 performances of 170 and higher, Fly posted 3 while Istabraq 4 in their entire career, so I'd say that if Faugheen stays healthy he can post more of those performances and surpass them. The standard is high which makes the rest look ordinary, which they aren't of course.