Cheltenham Festival
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The Champion Hurdle
The Champion Hurdle
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I was on MTOY that day and have always believed he was the better horse. Just so happens TNO is my jackpot hossy for this race this year!
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Absolutely bang on wicket.
To be honest I'm rather surprised at people on here not saying the same,just shows lack of knowledge about racing at championship level. Either that or trying to justify why they ain't backed TNO!! |
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just shows lack of knowledge about racing at championship level.
thankyou lord snooty   |
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As Faugheen has been beating up inferior opposition this year, I thought I would go back and watch last years Neptune again and have to say that the way Faugheen kicked for home was frighteningly good. As that was over the intermediate trip, I thought I'd watch the 2 mile race at Punchestown - again, when Ruby asks him on the home turn he just takes off. If you haven't watched these races lately - have another look. He must take the world of beating. Surely?
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duffy
 Really did not mean to sound that way, I just think its so obvious. |
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Delsie, every hurdler around at this moment can be considered inferior to Faugheen on paper, we'll see what he does in the field come March.. oh its so close now!!
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Counting the days tt. You are technically right, of course - but I must admit I had forgotten how good those displays were. I know the TNO fans will disagree - but wouldn't it be great if he was really special... The joy of racing - we all have our opinions.
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If you followed me on twitter after his Punchestown win I said Faugheen novice year is similar to Frankel's 2yo career in terms of so much potential; for this moment in time another analogy would be Frankel's first Sussex against CC when prior to the race there were many non-believers but after the race 90% were convinced of his greatness. This will be Faugheen moment so that everyone either shuts up about his odds or fans will be disapointed for not confirming his form and potential. Either way the level of anticipation is what all racings fans really want, horse racing at its best, the race of the festival !! How many days ??
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Its all about opinions Budd.
You think the fall of Our Conor was the reason TNO was beaten last year. Others believed it was because he got outpaced at the top of the hill. I think it's significant that connections have been adamant that the TNO can only quicken the once. Sam Twiston Davies reconfirmed this after Haydock in the post race interview. In last years Champion when they quickened at the top of the hill Sam didn't ask TNO to stretch on and I believe it's because he wanted to save his one and only burst till later. If I'm right and they quicken again at the top of the hill he will be in the same scenario as last season. Of course the fall of Our Conor was not ideal but I think TNO has absolutely no chance of winning. Been wrong plenty before, but it's about opinions. |
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I think TNO has absolutely no chance of winning
Very strong statement that Brandy! Fair play for sticking your neck out though, although there's no way I can agree with you. If you ever wanna lay some 4's on here, just send me a message |
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I think a horse cannot afford to lose that amount of ground in a championship race and be expected to win.
I reckon anyone who understands racing would agree. |
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Of course a horse CAN win in that scenario,but I think it fair not to expect him to.
Anyway, I may be wrong as well as you may be Brandy. |
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the new one would have to have to put up a 180+ performance to win after what happened last year.
in a champion hurdle you cannot afford for things to go wrong. he lost his position and rythym through no fault of his own. my view is that a line should be put through the run, he should be judged on what he can do when being allowed to hold his position and come into the race in his own time, not what happened when he was forced to lose 5+ lengths and then get back into the race. it baffles me that in the champion hurdle of all races he's expected to have got back into it cruising with the others. i dont think he's good enough to beat faugheen but he deserves more credit. it reminds me a lot of the azertyioup blunder that cost him behind moscow and well chief. ruby knew from then on he was only playing for places and rode accordingly, i think sam did the same |
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But that is my point.
I think the fall was irrelevant as he is only allowed to be asked to quicken once and if the opposition quicken at the top of the hill again he will left behind. In 3 weeks time we will know the answers to day ones puzzles. |
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The issue of winning or losing is not the relevant matter. Had he made the ground up and just been touched off close home you could say that the effort to make up ground had told in the end. The fact is though that he gradually made the distance up so that at the top of the hill he was with MTOY. If Our Conor was the reason why he lost why did they run away from him downhill? None of his fans have yet answered that question.
That was indeed where he lost the race in my view. There is in my mind only two possibilities which his advocates can cling to. The first is that the ground was pretty fast last year and could be a little softer this year. He may not lose as much ground down the hill if that is the case. The second is that you conclude that STD should have made more effort to cover the other runners as they started to go away from him down the hill. He knows he cannot allow them that ground this year so come hell or high water he will make sure that the horse comes down that hill more quickly. If it blunts the supposed one run the horse has then so be it. My personal view is that Faugheen and Jezki will be shovelling on the coals from the top of the hill and he won't get to one or both of them. |
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You seriously think STD simply rode for the horse to be placed wicket?
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I can still remember the thoughts I had when I saw TNO back on the bridle and closing to the main pack after being badly hampered by Our Conor fall: `if he can win this with that massive interference then he's something very very special`. Unfortunately he couldn't do it and this season form hasn't been that great either. His backers must have some faith in him to keep the price so low, I think he'll start at 9/2 or bigger on the day so maybe wait a bit longer for that.
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the reason they ran away from him downhill is because of the affect of the fall, losing ground and having to make it up. that is where it took its toll in the race, not when his stamina kicked in
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Exactly right Wicket,it just amazes me people cannot see it.
What were the 2 horses that finished in front of TNO doing while he had go quicker than he wanted to make up ground?? Anyway, not sure its worth bothering with mate. Its an argument that's been doing the rounds for ages. If people think the incident was not sufficient enough to affect his chances let them get on with it. |
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@Eeternaloptimist why did they run away from him downhill?
Is not only about the lengths he lost or the energy wasted to recover at a FAST championship pace, its also about losing that ideal position he was into when that happened; had he not been hampered he would've been in front by the turn and the others on the downhill would close on him from behind while STD would've applied the turn of gears while he had an advantage to go and win it! He lost the race because he lost that ideal spot and then had to go from the back and wide and use his stamina in different and harder way. Only great horses(and I mean greats like Istabraq, Night Nurse) would've been able to do that, TNO is a very very good horse just as The Fly but not a great ability wise!. |
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Would the new one's best chance of winning be from the front, he clearly stays.? i think if he was given a ride similar to rock on ruby a few years ago, kicking 4 lengths clear going round the final bend and then come and catch me if you can, I think his stamina would take him all the way up the hill.
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After last years race I thought TNO would win this years CH - right up until I watched Faugheen pish off around the home turn in the Neptune the following afternoon.
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Amazed if TNO gets anywhere near 4/1 again although I do hope so!
I'm scared of what faugheen may be able to do but TNO doesn't half get under rated. If you believe last years hampering cost him the race you're looking at that, a neck and half a length (x2) being the difference in him not having 100% in 15 hurdle starts. The neck was at fishers cross who was better suited by the desperate ground being the stayer. Both proved themselves as the years best middle distance/staying novices and in behind was coneygree and whisper! The first half a length was zarkander at Aintree. Both came from Cheltenham but Z came from the Champ Hurdle, one year older and stronger. TNO still ran to 165 (AFC 157 at the same aintree meeting) how many 5yo novice hurdlers have posted that type of rating ? The other half a length was My tent or yours who obviously came within a neck of the Churdle next time out. The form is bombproof in terms of consistency which is why it'd surprise me if he were to see a price which left him an e/w price of 4/1. It'd be like a risk free win bet  He would need to run a fair bit below what he has done in all 15 hurdle races to risk being out of the places in a renewal which lacks depth. |
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^^ agree lovely consistent horse
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Don't see the need for the rudeness of Budd or Wicketd to be honest - and to question other forumites' knowledge of racing at a Championship pace is pretty ridiculous given that we're all sat here at a computer having never ridden a horse at championship pace in our lives! Can we really understand the nuances of that with such conviction as you seem to suggest Budd? If anything, it seems hypocritical to so literally align the loss of ground for TNO in being hampered to TNO not winning, and then tell others that they haven't a clue about racing!
The only point I wanted to make earlier in the thread is one echoed by brandyontherocks and Eeternaloptimist, in that the reason TNO didn't win is because he lacked the requisite pace at a vital point of quickening in the race - in my (and others') opinions. Of course the hampering wasn't ideal, and of course it had an effect on his chance, but ultimately I don't think it affected the winning result. Hampered or not, I think the quicker horses would have got away to a race-winning extent, and I think the same will happen again. Of course, I could be completely wrong in my interpretation and I'm open to that, but I'm certainly not the only one who thinks that and there's no need to get childish about it. |
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I think Jezki is the value horse here...reigning champion hurdler and is 6-1. He has never been beaten over hurdles when 'good' has been mentioned in the going description. Not sure if groundsman will allow any good going in the description on the first day, but he surely is an ew bet to nothing. It is also worth remembering that he was beaten in the supreme by older horses and won the champion hurdle as a six year old. He will likely have improved now he is seven - just need some good to soft ground. Perhaps with the hype behind the other horses, Jezki is not getting the credit he deserves.
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He will get smashed in the coming weeks,defending champ with the Mcoy factor,surely go off 2nd fav.
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TNO will win this years churdle because it is my opinion that the hampering did cost him the race. He let the front 3 go off in front not because he couldnt go with them but more likely that he felt that as soon as they hit the up hill they would slow enough to be able to catch them. TNO is all about stamina with one burst of speed. STD merely tried to use this to good effect and it nearly came off. If it wasn't for the hampering it is my opinion it would have come off because he would have been able to click a half stride quicker at the top, let them go knowing that using his burst just before the uphill he would have caught them! I feel the hampering cost TNO that extra half a stride therefore the 3 got 3 lengths further clear than STD would have wanted them to have!
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Whether or not people think the TNO will win this year is up for debate, but it is undeniable he was hampered. In a champion hurdle against the best, losing at least 3 lengths is going to cost you. STD knows he can only ask TNO once and when he did lash year he went past Ruby like HF was standing still and eventually closed to within 3-4 lengths. He was hampered and lost momentum and without question would have either won or been right there on the line alongside Jezki and MTOY. I struggle to see having watched the race over and over how that is not the general consensus but then we are all entitled to our opinion, one of the many joys of racing. TNO comes back older, stronger and at what I imagine will be 7/2 on the day, is my banker of day 1.
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Been watching some of last years races again tonight, and faughheen's jumping wasn't very fluent, he takes one out completely, although does ping the last. I know he was a novice and that has to be took into consideration, I'm sure they will have worked on his jumping, but I just can't see why he is evs fav, who behind him in his novice race has franked the form, and beatings of Irving and sign of a victory doesn't look great form now... I think he starts 7/4, touching 9/4 on the day......
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Being outpaced 'cos he was knackered' doesnt entirely fit with him finishing like a train a few seconds later though. Not that im saying it didnt cost him the race, it might be that std had to let them get away because he desparately wanted to get a breather into him but its not really black and white imo.
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Joist,
I apologise if you think my comments rude,I really did not mean to be. I just think it's so obvious that the incident affected his chances of winning the race,and surprised people saying otherwise. Yes you are right I've never ridden a horse, but Ruby Walsh has. He says exactly what I say,that a horse just cannot lose that amount of ground in a 2m championship race,and not be affected as to his chances of winning. I don't come on here with the intention of upsetting people or making out I am some sort of expert,I certainly am not. Once again....apologies. |
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STD will have to make the same choice he made last year, go with the pace down the hill and then probably get left at the bottom when they kick again or hold on to him again get dropped a few lengths and then kick from the bottom of the hill and close them down all the way up to the line. He may manage to get his head in front on the line, but it seems unlikely and people saying he's their banker are brave, because if he does win I can't see it being over a length!!!
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I have stated all along that I think Faugheen will win and I am not changing now. However, to join TNO debate about last season. He was hampered badly. Let's have a multiple choice question.
A) Did it IMPROVE his chance of winning? B) Was it IRRELEVANT and made no difference? C) Did it make winning the race more DIFFICULT? We can't be 100% certain he would have won if Our Connor hadn't fallen in front of him, but IMHO we can say the job was made far more difficult and without it, he would have finished much closer or even won. Is that form good enough to beat Faugheen, Jezki? We'll know in 3 weeks. |
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Spot on shockster!! Couldn't have put it better myself!
Gustavo_1000 18 Feb 15 08:12 Joined: 12 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 29 | Blogger: Gustavo_1000's blog STD will have to make the same choice he made last year, go with the pace down the hill and then probably get left at the bottom when they kick again or hold on to him again get dropped a few lengths and then kick from the bottom of the hill and close them down all the way up to the line. He may manage to get his head in front on the line, but it seems unlikely and people saying he's their banker are brave, because if he does win I can't see it being over a length!!! left at the bottom when they kick again  Have never read a more ridiculous statement in all my life! When they kick on at the top of the hill there is not a horse in the world that can kick on AGAIN to run up it! Am not a times man, but, i am pretty sure that they ran faster down the hill (MTOY & JEZKI) than they did up it. Now whether this aided in the finishing position of TNO or not i don't know, in all probability it did. |
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Now whether this aided in the finishing position of TNO
I ment that to say, whether this makes TNO look flattered at the rate in which to the eye he was closing them down up the hill i don't know, probably did. |
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this obsession with TNO being hampered is only relevant because his jockey is crap and allowed it to effect TNOs run. The year before, Hurricane Fly was in an exact same position when Grandouet fell in front of him. The only difference was Ruby and The Fly skipped round him and win the race. No whinging. Any unplanned event or mishap and TNO/STD are knackered.
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That is harsh beyond belief, but there is a grain of truth in that statement. I am a little worried about STD compared to McCoy, Ruby etc. Is it that TNO really does only have one kick, or will Sam again leave it too late if they quicken at the top of the hill.
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think the new course suits TNO lots better than this speedy course on good ground will get outpaced where ever they turn the taps on
have him 4th of the big three, 3/1 worse value horse of the festival |
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TNO to battle out third place with The Fly, left toiling in The Machine's slipstream, with Jezki running on gallantly ahead in second.
Can't have TNO, as has been debated over and over, IMO the hampering made things difficult for him, but I still don't think he had enough in the locker to get to the front two. You need everything on your side in these championship races and I just don't think TNO, STD and NTD are a reliable enough combination. |