Cheltenham Festival
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The Champion Hurdle
The Champion Hurdle
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In the home straight before 3 out Bertimont crusied by TNO effortlessly and forced TNO to make a mistake at that hurdle. Ok TNO hated the ground but so did Bert who's best form is on good-soft and who was sent in front too far out with half a mile to go. TNO single piece of form up to the CH level is in the Bula hurdle when he gave 8 pounds to Vaniteux, without that rac he would be at 5s or bigger and Jezki at 3/1.
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TNO hated the ground the last day. Watch what he did to Rock On Ruby over 2m at Kempton if you think he lacks pace!
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to ROR? when ROR made his seasonal reappearance 2 years ago? What about the Aintree hurdle on his good ground whats the excuse? Hard season? Wrong distance? TNO has far too many excuses on most of his races and the form this season doesn't look nowhere near as good as last year when unlucky to MTOY and beating Zarkandar and ROR by 5-10 lengths.
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Then pull the trigger on the lay timtin!
For a horse with a whole lot of excuses his win record isn't too shabby! You could argue that the form of all of the top four isn't great this season... |
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His cheltenham form ain't too shabby either.
And am I reading doubts about his turn of foot?? That's laughable. |
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Imo tno brings the strongest most structured overall form to the table this years champion hurdle! Last years winner keeps finding an 11 year old too strong, now I no he's yet to get his true optimum conditions but from what I've saw for me he's a one time winner, a brave Inca type possibly. And faugheen, although his Neptune win is good, he hasn't beat a whole lot this season. He was far from fluent in that Neptune but got away with it. So maybe that form not great? Ok tno makes mistakes but his jumping is better the faster he goes and the better the ground is.
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How many times have we said this sentence when asked what won certain races over the years.
MULLINS WON IT WITH THE OUTSIDER. could this be another race to use the famous sentence.?  |
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don't know why but just cannot get interested in the top lot in the market and certainly not keen on hurricane fly...the new one i have a feeling may have already peaked (similar to the fly) for the season and had a tough race last time, faugheen looks good but isn't prepping and as much as i respect jezki unless they put some more head gear on him i just can't get excited...
anyway i like the way this kitten rock is progressing and have had a small poke at 50+ as think the market is overloaded at the top...i don't know why but just think he is over priced and if you watch his last race up in trip he was almost stopped in the run at the top of the straight before winning quite easily...he has gone under the radar for me anyway at the price...anyone like his chances at the big odds?? |
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I am very interested in him harry but suspect this is a year too soon and of course that he might not be good enough, but when you're backing at 50+ you don't need to pay much to find out...
Love the way he travels and jumps (very quick over his hurdles) and can see that taking him into it but whether he can live with those around him as they hit the rising ground is anyone's guess. |
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Sea re TNOs form I suggest you write down the names of the horses he beat in the hurdle races he has won and have a think.
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Sea re TNOs form I suggest you write down the names of the horses he beat in the hurdle races he has won and have a think.
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ye he may come up a tad short tomdeane that is clear by his form figures but just think he could be good, if just a tad short of the grade but just cannot get excited by the top horses in the market at the prices, who apart from faugheen are showing the same level of form they always have done and if i'm honest are very exposed types...
can kitten rock improve enough to challenge i'm just not sure but can see him travelling well for a long way and if he can find a stone he could get involved but at least is improving and is only a 5 year old...a tempting long shot imo in a race i could see a boil over if faugheen doesn't perform and the new ones jumping still leaves me not convinced, jezki who i have backed just doesn't convince me i just hope they change the headgear again with him |
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Have a look who Faugheen beat last year at Chel....... and see how that form is working out (don`t laugh)........ and look at TNO win in the Neptune and see what you think.
Purple Bay???? look at his jumping against Faugheen at Kem......... 4 poor errors .... and Irving and the handicapper Sign .... not at the races. You can throw form at Haydock out the window, that track is a disgrace ..... the amount of times ur man gets those rails change is awful. And using form on a flat track (inner track mine you) is not for The New One. The New One for me e/way @ 7/2 is a steal whichever way the race is run he will be fighting it out. And Faugheen better jump better because TNO will have no problem to out battle him up the hill out battle any horse up the hill to be honest. The problem I only have is young Sam Twiston Davies, he is getting like McCoy,Johnson....... having the knack to clout a hurdle. |
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easygold not being funny but i think it is easy to pick holes in them all if i'm honest
you can pick the holes out of faugheens neptune but the new ones has hardly worked out that well or is rule the world really a top class horse, no he isn't you talk about faugheens jumping but imo he is far more fluent than the new one, jezki has under performed this season and faugheen isn't prepping for the race, hurricane fly has been trained hard for the irish races and artic fire needs to step up on all known form i see no sweets in the race and after the new ones last race i'm not convinced he is an ew bet to nothing now, he had a hard race in the end and jumped poorly, on better ground he will have to jump better and also not sure the value of the international either the race stinks for me |
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Faugheen has definitely improved in the jumping department from what we've seen this year, but it is still an unknown as to how it will stand up when for the first time ever in his career he has to do it going quicker than he ever has before over the flights....that mistake he made in the Neptune last year that cost him a length, maybe two where walsh was able to nudge him back to the front relatively easy...make the same mistake in the CH and it could be 3+ lengths and the effort to get back will take it's toll, do it again and well......5/4 with that big unknown, not for me....if he is the superstar, then all well and good.
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Not many gave talked about how Faugheen react when taken on for the lead and how is jumping will cope. I'm pretty sure JP will run at least one pacemaker, possibly two in order to a)set a strong gallop and b) mess with Faugheen's head.
Jezki will sit behind Faugheen and look to get him at it from a long way out. All STD has to do is not panic and bide his time and be the last of the big three to play his cards. TNO has a deadly turn of foot when ridden in the correct way. I hope STD has the balls to be patient and use it to best effect |
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faugheen has yet to face a decent horse and come march the 10th he,ll face 3 all at once 5/4 no thanks
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harry I thought jezki had underperformed in his races last season before the champ hurdle and tbh he looks to have had an almost identical prep this season i.e running on unsuitable ground in slowish run races that suited hurricane fly better ,
was running a stormer last time until bad mistake at the last ,conditions at the festival should be ideal ! |
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Clay there is nothing in Faugheens form to suggest he has to make the running as he has not done so in at least half his races including lto.
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We`ll see Harry....... but using form at Haydock for TNO and holding it against is poor judgement iMO.
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Clay Faugheen didnt lead in the Neptune he doesnt have to lead
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nice little cross the bow comment easygold...
poor judgment easygold is just dismissing it as if it never happened, i'm well aware it was bottomless, however no matter how you cut it it was disappointing and more to the point he had a very hard race...listen you've obviously backed him and if your judgement is right you will get the place money |
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do you get a CH candidate 100% for a tinpot prep at haydock 7 weeks before the event harry?
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that isn't the point alleged it just isn't an ideal prep imo...having the guts ripped out of the horse and not giving him an education at the same time just isn't ideal that is all i'm saying
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The jumping is my concern with The New One and the reason I can't back him. Otherwise I'm in his camp.
As Foyles said Jezki has run very similar races to last year in his build-up and comes to life on better ground and at Cheltenham. I think he's the bet at the prices (especially EW). |
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" using form at Haydock for TNO and holding it against is poor judgement iMO."
TNO isn't judged on Haydock form, otherwise he would be 5/1 or bigger in the market. He is so low because of his last season form and the Bula hurdle this term. HF dropped from 16/1 to 7/1 because of his recent form, Jezki is still 6/1 based on last CH form, Faugheen dropped from 6/1 to evens because of his recent form(and collateral form lines with TNO) not because of the Neptune form which some use to judge him.. the question is why is PB 50/1 and Arctic Fire 16/1 ?  P/W i know but still... and Irving @ 33/1 when PB was on top of him before falling in the Elite Hurdle.. Vaniteux also shorter than PB @ 40/1 when beating Blue heron by 6 lengths while PB beat Blue heron eased down by 9 lengths.. Kitten Rock @ 33/1 when best form is on soft-heavy which will also get tomorrow.. Bertimont the same 50/1 as PB who smashed him by 4-5 lengths in the Elite(while PB was hampered by the fall of Irving).. PB place @ 12/1 is the best value out of the outsiders IMHO..well at least the place market on here makes more sense .. |
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Timtin....... best of luck with your bet you will need a lot......... Purple Bay on a undulating track no thanks............. John Ferguson @ Cheltenham No Thanks...... Purple Bay jumping No Thanks......... Punters thinking 12/1 for one place is value No Thanks.
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Anybody see the look Ruby Walsh was giving when Alice was talking to STD about TNO on the morning line this morning? I thought it was a very telling piece of body language saying to everyone who at least he thinks will win. A sort of smirky smile with very slight shaking of the head. We will soon find out in March but am still firmly in the TNO camp although more than one possible result would suit me.
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again why Purple Bay 50/1 ?
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Bin Irving and Sign Of Victory bets well beaten.
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not that taken by kitten rock today in fact i think the mullins horse may have won...maybe a stronger pace will suit but i don't hold much hope for him winning tbh
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Sorry I missed The morning line,but can anyone enlighten me to what Sam had to say about TNO,cos as a stout fan I'm interested.Is he happy with preparation,jumping etc,etc.thanks.
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Said all is fine and hes happy with him.
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i've backed faugheen and am his biggest fan but it still gets me how people can say the new one wasnt really affected by the race last year.
if you are taken out of your rythym and made to lose 5+ lengths, in a championship race going championship pace, the only possible effect it could produce is a detrimental one its madness to say 'he made it back up easily and was going well before the taps were turned' he still had to make that ground back when he shouldnt have needed to! i think faugheen will have more gears but crazy saying tno should have won if good enough last year |
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That`s what some people are saying all right but have not got a clue about the sport............. Like Mick Fitz after the World Hurdle, she didn`t stay, my god she beats the rest of the field and he comes out and says she just didn`t stay....... that`s what ur up against clowns.
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Non-Runner No Bet........... The New One e/way 1/4 the odds has to be the choice, has to be the choice at the current odds. If u have a voucher like 6/1-9/4 for the Fav....... that`s fine best of luck to you but at today`s prices The New One is the choice by a long way.
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I did think at the time that tno gets the 4/5 lengths back then he wins but can see the argument that hampered or not he would have had to get pretty serious well well before the 2nd last to be ahead by the winning post. Could have won if std makes that decision but not an obvious move to challenge for the lead that far out on tno
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If I remember right STD has been annoyed with him self for going to the front too soon on the new one and wasting his turn of foot. The problem with this is in the Churdle he'll be flat out just to stay with them over the last couple of furlongs, so won't have the required turn of foot to go past them. I'm sure he'll be closing them down again at the line, but he'll just be staying on all too late again!!
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I guess we will be reading excuses like
'They went that hard early doors they tired up the run in' When TNO wins the Churdle this year. A horse that will not get the credit deserved if he does win i fear! |
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So you mean excuses like?
"I went for home to soon" "He was badly hampered" "He hated the ground" Or "If he's jumped the last he would of beat MTOY |