Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 812 comments are related to the topic:
The Champion Hurdle
The Champion Hurdle
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 812
|
By:
Tell me about it!! I'm normally involved,I need to have a word with myself........trouble is its this bloody cheltenham thing!!!
|
|
By:
If I wasn't such a big Fly fan this race would be wrecking my head. My hopes one of last seasons novices would progress has failed totally. While the prices for the top 4 in the market are very close to correct. Faugheen should be a bit bigger with TNO and Jezki slightly smaller. But nothing big standing out to have a cut at.
Cheer on the Fly like I have for the past 4 years is my play for this. But it's out of hope rather than any kind of strong opinion in the race. |
|
By:
SYT....Both salient points,TNO does indeed make up plenty of ground,probably not his ideal conditions either.He certainly deserves credit,it would have been no surprise had he been dropped out to finnish in his own time.If he,s in the same form, with a clear run,he must be a player.Was he outpaced or was STD looking after him,either way he will divide opinion until March.
Joist/Budd......two sides of the same coin,both valid points.For me at around 3/1 he still has to prove he can do it,if the mullins duo hose up in the first two races I can see him drifting to bigger than that,on the plus side for supporters he remains strong in the market at the moment. Looking forward to this one. |
|
By:
I read all these comments about TNO and just keep saying to myself,
"How do people know the race will be run in exactly the same manner as last year?" We just don't and it is very unlikely it will. There is no Captain Cee Bee in the field this time around to go off and give that kind of suicidal pace he did so early on and given that plinth struggled to even get to the lead last time he wont be doing it. So imo although the early pace will still be strong i cannot see it being as fast early on as it was last season. If TNO jumps round cleanly he will be much closer to the principals as they start for home as he was last year and without having to have been nursed back into it quietly. He is a player for sure and discount him at you peril. I see him as the winner, taking it up just after the last, perhaps from Jezki and fly, maybe arctic fire can over run his odds and place. Faugheen is a win of bomb type in this race. IMHO! |
|
By:
I rate TNO very highly but don't see the argument that a strong pace would work against him - I'd have thought he'd want a breakneck gallop as he stays well, travels, well, and quickens. I think a stop-start pace would beat him.
|
|
By:
the champion hurdle is always a breakneck gallop,
the problem is that if a horse hits a hurdle of fiddles it,more that likely it will seriously hamper his or her chance of winning the race.  |
|
By:
if you want to know the winner of the champion hurdle 2015 all you need to is put you racing form guide away and read the following quote.
"The wheels have to be kept on the bikes and until I know the wheels are still on the bikes I wont be making a decision" RUBY. The intellectuals struggle to deny the obvious is never more desperate then when reality is unpleasant and at variance with his preconceptions and when full acknowledgment of it would undermine the very foundations of his intellectual worldview. but it is so obvious what he is saying.and obvious what is going to win. |
|
By:
Could see Ruby dictating on Faugheen,as so called pacemaker
is useless will only get in way imo. |
|
By:
Nobody can be 100% sure, but I agree with Joist that TNO wouldn't have won if he wasn't hampered. I'm not convinced that it's his pace that's beat him, or at least not alone. His jumping wasn't good enough. He lost a length and momentum at a number of the hurdles. I wouldn't completely write him off, but, if there's similar ground and pace this year, I think his jumping will let him down.
|
|
By:
people forget that last year Ruby had decided to ride Annie in the Champion hurdle before she was withdrawn.
This is a very important point that is overlooked by most punters. |
|
By:
Yes, of course he did mate. Did he let you know that personally?
|
|
By:
no,we all knew she would not run,and then ruby got injured if you remember,the stable (ricci and willie)said they did not think it fair to run both horses(Annie and the fly) against each other,which really ment willie wants hurricane to win the race.
|
|
By:
I think D Casey took over for a day.not sure
|
|
By:
and if I remember correctly Casey fell off both mounts that he got.
|
|
By:
And if I remember that was 3 days later !
|
|
By:
A bit late dipping me toe in the water in what is my fav race of the year having been raised on a diet of Night Nurse/ Monksfield and Sea Pigeon.
With regards to the punting I think Faugheen is a shocking price @ 11/8 ish Ante Post You will get a better price on the morning of the race . The value bet @ this stage imo is Irving(currently 50s) who won the Fighting Fith readily from Aurura Destruval(won only subsequent race comfortably) and Arctic Fire who has acquitted himself admirably against Jetski & Hurricane Fly in the interim.However we have to forgive him his last run in the Xmas hurdle as he was suffering from a foot infection and he needs to prove his fitness in the Kingwell hurdle on saturday. Heres hoping With regards to the way the race will be run I expect Jetski will have 2 pacemakers inc Kitten Rock and expect a breakneck pace on what looks like being on decent ground again after the ongoing dry spell and and clearly being trained with 1 race in mind. Hes overpriced as current champion how The New One can be 1/2 his price beggars belief . |
|
By:
Add to the fact that Jezki has ran an invincible horse close 3 times this season with better to come on the 10th March where he should have his optimum conditions.
|
|
By:
I've really been struggling with this race this year, not really wanting to oppose Faugheen, who could be anything, but not getting many clues as to what that anything is. We don't really know much more about him than we did at the start of the season, other than there is less than 4 weeks to go and he appears to be in one piece - although missing this weekends intended prep is a concern.
With all that in mind, I think he is too short, but wouldn't want to be laying him. I'll oppose with TNO, as he appears in much the same form as last season, which may be enough this year. Jezki, although a spring horse, doesn't appear to be the same horse, you'd expect him to be beating an ageing Fly this season. Not struggling the way that he has been. I suspect he will be a one time winner. If it's not going to be TNO, then it could be that we are in for a surprise and so I'll be having some cheap ew green on Arctic Fire and Irving, as they seem the likeliest of the outsiders to have a big run in them. |
|
By:
geoff m - I'm not saying he's a Champion Hurdle winner in-waiting but don't think Edward O'Grady or even JP would be happy about labeling Kitten Rock as a pacemaker. I think O'Grady in particular rates him a serious horse. Looks to me like he has a serious cruising speed and a good hurdling technique - I can see him travelling really well before emptying at the last.
|
|
By:
Ruby has already gone on record by saying that when Annie Power reappears he will be in the saddle.SO this indicates to me that Annie will not run in the CH even though she is still entered,but it also means that he would choose Annie above Faugheen and Hurricane.
So he is saying one of two things. Annie will not run in the CH or I am choosing Annie in the champion hurdle above faugheen or hurricane There is no in between in his statement. |
|
By:
it could also mean that if Faugheen or Fly don't run in the CH then AP will take his/their place, basically she is the 3rd choice for the CH but if those 2 arrive safe and sound at Chelt they will run her in the Mares.
|
|
By:
but you must remember that if Annie runs she gets a HALF A STONE weight allowance,now for a horse to win the CH it is difficult enough but to win it and give another grade 1 winner a half a stone in weight is a big big ask,so should we see heavy going on the day(Annies favorite)it gives the mullins camp a very favorite advantage so that is why she is entered(imvho)
|
|
By:
Half a stone is the same as two big bags of spuds.
 |
|
By:
well soft/heavy will also be in Fly's favour and Faugheen also doesn't mind that kind of going. They entered her because she is the CH 3rd string and if anything happens with the other 2 they will still have a big chance with AP like you said having that mares allowance. If they haven't given her a chance last year when she was in best form and was only against one in their yard, what are the chances that they will run her this time around against two from their yard and without having any races..
|
|
By:
Annie won't run in CH.
|
|
By:
I agree with you timtin,but you have to respect my view that a half a stone is a massive advantage.
But Willie has his reasons for not giving her a chance,and I think the reason is the obsession he has for the fly to win the race,and he also is a terrific trainer and knows what is best for all his horses. Annie was bought as a chaser in mind and is still a young horse while hurricane is in the winter of his career and what fitting way to hang up your horseshoes than to do it with another Champion Hurdle. If that is the plan. |
|
By:
But I do agree reg. the mares allowance, I've lost a large sum last year `thanks` to Mullins Fly obsession... but this year there's also Faugheen in there who copes with any ground so the heavy going won't even be a factor in running AP if Faugheen turns up in good order on the day..
|
|
By:
but you have to respect my view that a half a stone is a massive advantage.
Respect your view Brassneck its a good advantage but worth absolutely nothing if she doesnt run and turns up in the mares barring accidents to the Fly and Faugheen |
|
By:
Dont take Brass too seriously - I imagine he has a photo of AP over his bed!
|
|
By:
Half a stone + horse tackle. Have you seen how big horse tackle is ? Must be another pound or two there at least to carry :)
|
|
By:
I never said there wouldn't be a strong pace. All i said was the race will not be run in the same way as last! It is my opinion that the race will be fought out by them three as feel Faugheen is a win or bomb type.
|
|
By:
TNO does need a strong gallop, but they won't want to make the same mistake that the Nicholl's camp did with zarkander a couple of years back by trying to race right up with it, because by doing so, TNO, will still be racing quicker than he wants to be and he will pay for it late on...by being a strong stayer it doesn't mean that if he races up with the pace he'll naturally outstay them, because he could still be wrecked come the end.....he'll have to race further back and hope that he doesn't loose too much ground at the point in the race he undoubtedly gets outpaced.
|
|
By:
Just watched last years race a couple more times and can't have TNO. I think last years defeat was more to do with his inability to jump consistently well. I must admit that I had not really taken in at the time how badly he jumped. He also seemed to struggle to lay up with the pace. Sure he finished impressively - but you might expect that of a horse that stays 2 and a half miles. If he had impressed with his jumping this year I could perhaps forgive this - but I can't honestly say I've noticed a marked improvement. Watching last year also makes it hard to fancy The Fly. I love the horse but he never looked like the horse we see at Leopardstown. My thought at the time was that he was perhaps a year or so too old. I know he's won well this season but I can't believe he's improved - more likely Jezki has been below par. I'm not a stats man - I go more on what I see for myself. I backed Faugheen after Punchestown last year and Arctic Fire E/W after his first run at Leopardstown. The new ones against the older guard if you like.
I'm new to forums and discussions such as this, but I quite enjoy reading CVByrne's opinions. If you read this CV, I would welcome your thoughts as I know you are a Fly man and unlikely to agree with my selections. I think Faugheen could be the best for a while and that Arctic is an improver who we know acts at Prestbury (admittedly on the new course) and may get conditions to suit. |
|
By:
All I would say re The New One and his run last year is that it came on the quickest ground we've seen at Cheltenham for a long time and that certainly didn't help him, given the situation that developed.
I am not convinced either way as to whether he was tactically outpaced on merit, or if he was an unlucky loser but my bigger fear this year is the jumping, which is an issue, especially given the way he hurdled most recently. I don't think he lacks pace so don't think they'll go quicker than he wants no matter how fast they go. |
|
By:
TNO even got outpaced by Bertimont so he'll need to race handy in order to maintain his position and hopefully outstay them. If Faugheen leads then TNO needs to be right behind him and hope that Faugheen will not stay up the hill; too far behind and he won't make it to the frame; challange too early and he ends up like other horses which tried to go with Faugheen speed and again he won't make it in the frame. Jezki and Fly would be the only ones with the turn of foot to match Faugheen but for how long? and can they match the number of gears that Faugheen brings? along with his abundance of stamina for the uphill finish? Don't think so.
Purple Bay earned his high mark in top class handicaps, earned 153 in the Summer Hurdle, confirmed it in the Grade A Galway hurdle and was raised to 161 in the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle but then in the Christmas Hurdle the official handicappers thought he wasn't so great for coming 8 lengths behind Faugheen and droped him to 159... my opinion is that if he arrives in the same form he has the best chance out of the outsiders to stay on for a place. Have no idea why Arctic Fire, Irving, Vaniteux, Kitten Rock and SOAV are all shorter in the market(AF put up by P/W and finished close to Jezki and Fly in slowly run races, while the rest ?! ... ) but they will need to show improvement to stay on past PB who finishes his races so well. |
|
By:
Jezki's strength isn't a turn of foot imo, it's his ability to race at a strong gallop on quick ground from start to finish.
|
|
By:
A strength that I think will see him win again.
|
|
By:
I think the logic with Arctic Fire is that he will probably be ridden for a place - that is held up off a breakneck gallop ready to pick up the pieces. Bit like Theatreworld used to do in Istabraq's races. The BIG stumbling block for his supporters is that he may be the mount of Casey due to other entries from WPM - Ruby (Faugheen) Townend (The Fly) Casey replaced the injured Walsh on AF and managed to avoid landing the stable's monster gamble in the County last year. Perhaps the owner might ask WPM to find him a spare jockey rather than have Casey again. Townend would be great but it's unlikely he would risk not taking the ride on The Fly. If he did - it would be a huge boost to his e/w backers.
|
|
By:
imtin 12 Feb 15 16:52 Joined: 04 May 12 | Topic/replies: 161 | Blogger: timtin's blog
TNO even got outpaced by Bertimont Will let you work out whats completely wrong with that statement  |
|
By:
His turn of foot was evident last year when BG used it to his advantage just at the turn into the home straight and at P'town when AP used it just before the last hurdle. Without a turn a foot he stands little chances against Faugheen anyways so its good that he has it. Purple Bay is the one that doesn't have a turn of foot but stays on forever.
|