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The Gold Cup

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Replies: 614
By:
CVByrne
When: 09 Feb 15 20:32
Really enjoyed Carlinford Loughs win on Sunday.

So I've lost bets on Taquin, Cue Card & Champagne Fever. But 3 live ones in Carlingford Lough, Road to Riches and Djakadam. I'm happy enough with that tbh.
By:
Howdi
When: 09 Feb 15 20:45
good to see you put them off the scent cv there. they need reigning in, this lot.
By:
CVByrne
When: 09 Feb 15 20:51
Put them off the scent Confused
By:
buddeliea
When: 09 Feb 15 20:51
You shod be CV , all big players imo. Add many clouds to that list I reckon you have the winner.
By:
buddeliea
When: 09 Feb 15 20:52
Should be
By:
traveltips
When: 10 Feb 15 09:06
Forfeit stage at 12pm market will be suspended.
By:
zilzal1
When: 10 Feb 15 19:24
Jonjo just tweeted that Holywell runs on thurs
By:
duffy
When: 10 Feb 15 19:25
zippeeHappy
By:
duffy
When: 12 Feb 15 16:33
zippeeCrazyCrazy I meant yippee ffs....anyway, solid performance today, connections will be very satisfied with that giving a 133 horse 17 lbs and a 25 length beating in a relative stroll is a perfect prep.
By:
GI MAC
When: 12 Feb 15 18:02
Holywell looked in good nick today, but wasn't fully wound up, more improvement to come I'd say.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 12 Feb 15 18:34
hope so gi mac am baws deep !
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 12 Feb 15 18:45
Never seases to amaze me tho how the bookies shorten these horses for winning egg and spoon races!
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 12 Feb 15 19:03
he has been short for what he has achieved so far this season but I think the bookies are wary of what he can do when conditions are right ,see the  Aintree novice chase last season
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 12 Feb 15 19:12
I agree foyles but he wins a race where his nearest opponent is 17ib inferior at stupidly short odds and he gets chopped by 6 pts! I guess we now know he's fit and well which was in question only a week or two ago. 12/1 in two weeks time would be about where I would be at nrnb and he's single figures in some places!!
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 12 Feb 15 19:18
yeah they don't need a lot of  excuses to cut one !
By:
traveltips
When: 12 Feb 15 19:47
Boston Bob on the drift!
By:
stevo1
When: 12 Feb 15 20:59
Boston Bob wouldnt win if starting now!
By:
buddeliea
When: 12 Feb 15 21:21
Bit harsh,he was going to beat last years winner in the RSA,imo.
By:
stevo1
When: 12 Feb 15 21:31
Yeah backed him that day,gone backwards since imo.
Was put tongue in cheek Budd,but could back 10 others before
backing him again.
By:
wellchief
When: 12 Feb 15 21:32
I do think Boston Bob is on the decline a bit now though.

I've never been his biggest fan, but he's been beaten a total of almost 50 lengths this year, since his 2 G1 successes last year. Ruby picking On His Own last week was a statement as well.

There are a good few I'd pick before him for the Gold Cup.
By:
wellchief
When: 12 Feb 15 21:33
Great minds Stevo!
By:
stevo1
When: 12 Feb 15 21:37
Lol Well,have followed him since novice hurdle days,
thought he was gonna be really good,but in decline
seems to want 4 miles slowly?
By:
buddeliea
When: 12 Feb 15 22:02
Well,I ain't backed him,but I do think he's capable of a big run on his day. Problem he has is this is a real good race,but if he turns up he could be a tempting price,cos if he's on his day he could run very well.
By:
Wicketd
When: 14 Feb 15 12:20
very happy with the run from holywell. like i said before, as long as he showed signs of good form in prep, he'll be bang on for the GC. still think 10/1 is big, he's classy and unexposed still.
By:
Wicketd
When: 14 Feb 15 12:20
in feb^, not prep
By:
the bloob
When: 14 Feb 15 17:49
anybody else think that Sam Winner is worth a look at 33/1? course and distance should be no problem, and only beaten 3.5 lengths by Road to Riches last time out. With Road to Riches at 9/1 that makes Sam Winner a good bet at 33/1
By:
jasey
When: 14 Feb 15 18:22
Be bigger on the day
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Feb 15 20:20
no he won't. PFN will ramp it in his column.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 14 Feb 15 20:27
I dont think PFN words will affect his price too much, he will be all over conti.  maybe his record in the GC and the overall crapness of the horses running in this years gold cup will make a young improver backable.
By:
SoYouThink
When: 14 Feb 15 21:05
Just looking at Silviniaco Conti - who would be my pick for the race - I wonder would he have the profile of a Gold Cup winner or how would he fit the trends?

I think the main thing people have against him is that he's had two chances at the race and failed in both. Coupled with the fact that 6/10 winners were second season novices and 3/10 were third season novices (Just trying to get a picture of the typical profile of a recent winner just there). The exception being Kauto Star in 2009. Silviniaco Conti is now in his third season out of novice company or a fourth season novice if you want to put it like that.

The likes of Road To Riches, Dkajadam, Many Clouds, Holywell, Smad Place & Carlingford Lough are all just out of novice company and all probably still improving (You can add in Coneygree into the list for the purpose of this discussion). I can see the sense in thinking that one or more of them will improve enough to beat SC. If you also take SC's two Cheltenham runs, you'd probably say he's not improving.

Saying all that I do fancy Silviniaco Conti, and if you are one of those people - like me - who is prepared to put what happened on the run-in last year down to freak occurence, it becomes much easier to fancy him. He's won each of the 3 G1 staying chases in the UK since and himself is arguably improving. 

Question for me is who's the best of last year's novices. I find it hard so hard to split them. It really is a classic case of the young pretenders taking on a very experienced rival.
By:
SoYouThink
When: 14 Feb 15 21:14
Also another point I would make - the narrative on this race is suggesting it's weak. I would say it's actually quite strong. Those horses I've named in my last post have shown huge improvement in the last year and the fact they'll nearly all be coming into the race off the back of impressive wins (i.e. Lexus, Irish Hennessy, Cotswold Chase, Thyestes Chase, Denman Chase .... all recognized trials) make it both fascinating and wide open. I can't see how people consider it weak as all the form from all the recognized trials and nearly all the form last year's staying G1 novices will be represented too. Just because one or two of the leading contenders started chasing life out in handicaps does not make it weak. I'm nearly giving myself doubts about Silviniaco Conti here too Laugh
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 14 Feb 15 21:23
those are races in names only.

Its wide open because they are just 165 horses and on the day one will excel.

It has been very weak for years now.

See how easily handicappers and novices have walked into contention.

At the moment im torn between  Silviniaco Conti who had the race won 150yds out last year, which he has improved on and a novice/handicapper.

Still reckon it is piss poor division.
By:
timtin
When: 14 Feb 15 21:30
SYT, almost everyday on different races I read how people advertise their weakness comparing with previous years, they're mostly talking rubbish and have no clue about horse racing. The only way to call a race weaker than the previous years is by looking at it after 2-3 seasons and then compare it and see what all the horses in that race have consequently done that season, next seasons, etc. Saying a race is weak before taking place is hilarious at best. The most recent example of such idiots were the `tv experts` saying about the Hennessy before or right after that its a very weak renewal, now look at them fools..
By:
SoYouThink
When: 14 Feb 15 21:36
Yes I agree there's also people will tell you the Champion Chase is weak with the injuries to the former and current champ, that the Champion Hurdle is a 3 runner race and that the World Hurdle is weak. They can't all be weak. Although in the case of the World Hurdle my guess would be it's not a vintage renewal but as you say time is the best indicator of that.
By:
timtin
When: 14 Feb 15 22:19
The last year Gold Cup is one of the weakest in history, the fact that there were 3 horses on the line with their form this season being completely blown apart confirms it but before the race you couldn't possibly say this.

CH trial like for example today's Kingwell, or last week Betfair Hurdle, etc. which were used as proper CH trials this season winners aren't even considered for the Champion Hurdle because the quality of the first 4 is too huge this year, how can anyone call it a weak renewal?

As for the other races unlike previous years this season there are too many quality horses imported and/or improved, thats why Ricci and Mullins are having difficulty in keeping theirs separated, not because there are fewer festival races but because the number of quality horses in recent years is alot higher. Vautour, Peace&Co, Douvan, Lami Serge, UDS, Don Poli, Nichols Canyon, Hargam, Coneygree, etc. potential new upcoming stars; the sheer number of them is unheard of in previous years. We'll see how many will confirm their status but you can't call a race weak before being run and even then you need time to see how they all perform in consequent events before confirming that verdict.
By:
wellchief
When: 15 Feb 15 09:43
Just looking through the Gold Cup entries before and was amazed just how lightly raced Bobs Worth is for his age.

He's only had 10 chase starts, although admittedly a lot of them will have been very hard races.  Compare that to Carlingord Lough who has had 17, Road to Riches 10, Holywell 10 and Many Clouds 9.

I've only picked the last four out as these are the up and coming ones.  I'm not sure after 17 starts just how much more improvement Carlingford Lough has in him, and I do think he needs to improve based on beating Foxrock a length.

If people continually write off Lord Windermere's poor runs, then you have to do the same for Bob imo. He's now looking more and more like my each way play in the race, as he's been there and wore the T shirt.  The odds are that a lot of those between the 10/1 and 16/1 mark won't be as good as thought when push comes to the shove, so I'd like to have Bob on my side for the place angle.
By:
sintonian
When: 15 Feb 15 12:10
yep, considering backing him myself...if only the Good ground was guaranteed...!
By:
shockster
When: 19 Feb 15 09:07
AP McCoy – my last Festival

My final Cheltenham Festival as a jockey is now just three weeks away and I couldn’t be happier to say that Carlingford Lough will be my ride in the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup.
By AP McCoy
So long as trainer John Kiely and JP McManus are happy with his condition then I will be aboard him on March 13th.

Cheltenham this year will probably be a little emotional for me but hopefully I will enjoy it more than I ever have as it will be the last time I will be riding there. The Festival is very special and I got an amazing reaction over in Ireland on Hennessy day when winning on Carlingford Lough. That was every emotional for me and Cheltenham will be very much the same – it will be my last time so I am going to try and enjoy it as I will never be there as a jockey again.

As I said, Carlingford Lough will be my Gold Cup ride; he gave me a great feel winning the Irish Hennessy and I am very much looking forward to riding him in the Gold Cup, if he lines up. Gold Cup day is probably the most important day of the whole jumping year and I am hoping he has got a live chance.

People might look back to last year and point out he was only sixth in the RSA but he never really got into a rhythm and we saw more of what he was capable of when he won the Grade One at Punchestown. John Kiely has the horse in great shape and he is definitely going there with a chance.

My other possible ride was Holywell and he was right back to form at Kelso last Thursday. It wasn’t much of a race but he travelled well and jumped better as the race went on. The way the horse improves through this time of the year he is definitely a Gold Cup contender, that is for sure.
By:
Makybe_Diva
When: 19 Feb 15 21:48
Thanks for posting that, shockster.

Ap's last Cheltenham Cry
By:
the bloob
When: 20 Feb 15 22:14
I still can't get over the price on Sam Winner, 33/1 is obscene. The only other horse I'm interested in is Holywell, I think 11/1 is still worth a bet
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