I remember trying to figure out how Long Run lost his crown in 2012, he won the King George and then ran a fine race in Gold Cup but was beaten by the previous seasons RSA Winner Bobs Worth. Always an improving horse coming along.

I would be fearful of all three but the horse I cannot get away from is Silviniaco Conti - a proven Grade 1 performer at this level. He's been running in Grade 1 company for 5 years and to me is tougher and classier than all else that will oppose him. I think he's reliable too - he jumps, he stays and he quickens. I could not ask for anymore.

I'm coming at this from the same angle as you SYT.

It's Conti's consistency and reliability that stands him apart for me.  Every race he has had from November 2011 has been a Grade 1 or 2 chase, winning 9 out 16, and two of those defeats have been on his season reappearance when he has needed the run - he's a solid as they come.

There are horses behind him in the betting like Lord Windermere, On His Own, Boston Bob, Giant Bolster, Sam Winner, Holywell etc and they are all extremely inconsistent, so I don't know how anyone could back one of them with any degree of confidence.

It showed in last years race that any horse can be beaten on any given day, and even the most unlikeliest outcome can happen, but I'd rather side with the one where you know, barring accidents, will be in the mix jumping the last.

Road to Riches and Many Clouds are serious threats, but the rest, they could run against each other ten times, and have a different winner each time.  That's not being disrespectful to them, I just don't think they're as good as SC, RTR or MC.

You can look at the consistency/inconsistency issue at it from various ways to suit an individual argument, for instance you could say that conti consistently gets beat at Cheltenham through one reason or another...also you could argue that holywell is inconsistent as a whole but when it comes to the festivals in the spring on good ground he is consistent with 3 wins in the past two seasons.

I like him as you can guess and he's a proper stayer, he made a couple of mistakes at the festival last year but was immediately back in position and loved the hill, now, he is one that is sure to get home and does love the likely ground,I've no problem completely dismissing what happens through the winter as we've had evidence of what he can do in the spring on better ground....his Aintree win was even more impressive, whether those in behind ran their race, you'd have thought one or two did and he was coming off the back of a tough race himself remember but he still hammered them in a grade 1,

If you consider what MC and DC have done this season it looks all the more impressive, you just can't dismiss the race as an end of season race and unreliable, it was a festival grade 1 and he was running loose on the run-in, incidently it provides a good example of the ground issue/time of year issue MC could face in March when you consider what he did to Holywell earlier this season compared to spring and better ground... obviously his jumping is an issue but you have to have a worry about something...as they all have in this race.

You're all wrong, he's gonna win, I guarantee it.....only joking. I can understand both sides of the argument to be honest. Maybe my heart is ruling my head and he shouldn't be such a short price, but I'd love to see him win, thinks he deserves a Gold Cup.

So much for HOUBLON DES OBEAUX going straight to the Gold Cup?


Houblon Des Obeaux is on target for the Denman Chase at Newbury next weekend.

Second in the Hennessy to Many Clouds when trying to give the subsequent Cheltenham winner 6lb, he then chased home the rapid improver The Young Master at Ascot, giving him 17lb.

Trainer Venetia Williams will now give him a chance up in grade before another possible crack at the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

"He's very well and goes to Newbury for the Denman Chase," said Williams.

"He's won some good races but has paid for it in the handicap.

"We'll see how he gets on. It will obviously be very competitive with everyone heading to Cheltenham after it and all being well, so will we."

The finish to last year's race was surreal at the time and looks no different now.

Won by a horse unable to keep tabs for most of the race .
Should have lost the race for interference , but they are never ever going to disqualify a Derby , Gold Cup or Grand National winner.
On His Own was in the form of his life approaching the race , counts for a lot.

As for the superstars Silviano Conti & Bobs Worth , only the jocks could have any idea what on earth happened to these two after the fence.

Poorest Gold Cup since Cool Dawn in my opinion , and that is why I think some new kid on the block will win .
Ridiculed for my view , but Djakadam was awesome last time out & with a prep run would have won the Hennessey , he goes there in form , and will do for me.

35  left in at the moment ..I guess we will end up with about 14/15 on the day? .Anybody heard of any of the likely non runners at this stage?

Rather liked On His Own's run at Leopardstown in the Lexus. Bowled along with his ears pricked and stuck on pretty well.
Has form in this race. Not a lot can put me off him except that he hangs a bit. Fit and conditions suit and form is good enough. Fave in this is not appealing imo.

Maybe I'm a bit daft but couldn't resist another few quid on First Lieutenant at 100+ on here.  Ground drying in Ireland and backed him for todays Hennessy as well.

I'll be happy enough if FL wins today, but had a look at special doubles on WHills and a couple stand out.

I'd say that's it now for the Fingal Bay dream.  Needs to go back to hurdles.

Carlingford Lough nice run today.
Thought he would come on for the Lexus run, hes a big player.

Wouldn't surprise me if there's a right plunge on this horse come the day due to the McCoy factor.

^^^ AMAZED WHEN HE HIT THE FRONT THEY CAUGHT HIM MIND. SO WAS THE MARKET, HIT 1.25

Bizarre ride on Lord Windermere - needs to be produced at the last.

But if he improves for Cheltenham in March like he has the last 2 years then he still looks cracking value. Will top up if the ground looks like being OK.

Really Duffy? If AP looks at the respective races they have had this season, I think he will be well happy to ride CL.

Shock,
Don't forget RTR is a better horse on decent ground mate.

I was glad to see the two younger ones fight it out at the end, and leave the others behind.

Foxrock is a real strange one though.  Strong fav in the four miler last year and ran no sort of race, beaten by 130 rated horses, and couldn't win a handicap at Christmas off 142, but then ran that race today.  Proper head scratcher.

Aye, Lord Windermere has to be the value call imo.

Think Boston bob was given a very nice prep race today came from last to fourth
with no great urgency. Will be better on good ground and he looks like a horse
which is only getting into gear. 25/1 currently with ladbrokes think Ruby will
ride him so he will do for me