They won't go for home so soon on Conti in the Gold Cup this year - they will have learnt from last year.

He'll want to be near the front (he was ridden just of the pace last year) and I doubt we'll see him make all like he did in the King George, where they knew others had stamina doubts.

I need to see more evidence that he doesn't like the track or didn't stay.  Especially judging him on one run where in a finish he went sharp to the right, Bobs veered off to the left, and the first three all ended up almost on the hurdles course as they crossed the line.

He jumped 3m1f of it like the best horse in the race, and for whatever reason, whether something spooked him, he idled, he felt the ulcers, I don't know, but I'm not basing that one run (with a strange final furlong) that he won't get home or doesn't like the track.

If it happens again then fair do's, but he deserves another chance imo.

I love the negativity, keep it up

flat rack bully should be 10,s instead of 3,s

ACStafford 26 Jan 15 22:30 Joined: 07 Jul 04 | Topic/replies: 716 | Blogger: ACStafford's blog
I'm going to go against the grain here and say I think Conti is a very fair price. I'm of the opinion that he's miles better than anything else in the race

Miles better? What did you make of Dynaste and his last two runs. I thought he was very solid and ran to his mark both times. He's consistently run to the same level bar his lack of fitness at Haydock and his little injury in last seasons King George.

If you think Dynaste is a consistent market then surely Conti has to be well clear. He smashed him in the George.

Marker!!

My view with Dynaste is that if he had skipped the King George, and went Betfair > Argento like the Giant Bolster did, Dynaste would be fourth fav and about 12/1 for the Gold Cup.  He would have only been beaten a length by Many Clouds, lost by a neck to Smad Place giving 8lbs and beat last year's Gold Cup third by 6 lengths.

I think that pays Conti a huge compliment, as he brushed Dynaste fairly easily at Kempton.  As I've said before, admittadly at a track Conti likes, but I think Dynaste does too.

Many Clouds would be the biggest danger in my eyes, as he was impressive at the weekend (in a completely different way to what he was at Newbury). I'm of the opinion that 3m at Kempton would suit Dynaste better than Saturday's trip, although I will accept it was slow early on. I would expect him to have been primed for Kempton too and maybe not for the Argento. I also think that Conti won the King George somewhat easier than the distance suggests.

I would expect Many Clouds to win if Conti proves not to enjoy the hill again, but I don;t really rate anything else in the race. Road to Riches is a good horse, but I'm not convinced by the form of that Lexus. The one horse I took out of it actually is Carlingford Lough, who I thought looked the winner until he appeared to blow up.

brandyontherocks 26 Jan 15 22:52 Joined: 04 Dec 06 | Topic/replies: 1,021 | Blogger: brandyontherocks's blog
If you think Dynaste is a consistent market then surely Conti has to be well clear. He smashed him in the George.

He hardly smashed Dynaste. I just rewatched it, they are all queuing up behind. I can see what some have said in that he quickened away from them. It was a really superb ride, Noel deserves huge credit. He set a a good pace, then filled him up while the others closed then kicked on again.

Dynaste was closing to the line and was beaten 4.5l he was hardly smashed.

I don't rate On His Own. Maybe it's a little bit of snobbishness on my part due to the fact that he was a National horse who at the age of ten suddenly turned into a Gold Cup contender. He came second in a bizarre Gold Cup where three mediocre horses came past the good horses from out of the blue. I don't trust the form at all.

Sam Winner has improved but is not Gold Cup quality. Boston Bob I don't trust. He might run a cracker at some stage in the spring, but he hasn't been impressive so far this season. Carlingford Lough blew up. First Lieutenant is past it. The last two Gold Cup winners ran no sort of race.

I thought he won a poor RSA and an odd Gold Cup. It'd be boring if we all had the same opinion. That's half of the fun of it, particularly with the Festival. As you say, the more people think differently to you, the better value you'll get.

Have to agree with AC.

The ground in the Lexus will be nothing like it will be on Gold Cup day, some were having their seasonal appearance and Lord Windermere runs rubbish everywhere outside of March - lots of variables to comprehensively think the form is "reliable".

Winner could could from that race but not necessarily in the same order they finished.

Re Lord Windermere, I just cannot see him placing. He mopped up the pieces last year after being really outpaced, but because of the weird finish and a few going for home too early he snatched it.

Whatever way you look at his RSA, it was a pretty poor race. Any one of last years placed RSA horses would have won that race imo.

Yes Chief,you are probably right re the ground in the Gold Cup compared to the Lexus,but the winner of the Lexus does prefer decent going.If that's the going I think he wins,if its soft I think he or Many Clouds will win.Anyway whatever the going its still wide open for me.

I really don't see how Lord Windermere's RSA is being called a poor race!! It produces the Gold Cup Winner, Melling & Puncestown Gold Cup winner, Bet365 Gold Cup winner, while also this years Hennessy 2nd under top weight and a horse who hacked up off 158 lto.

Lord Windermere, Boston Bob, Hadrians Approach, Houblon Des Obeaux, Unioniste. Looks a fair old race to me tbh.

The best starting point for analyzing a championship race at the Cheltenham Festival is the corresponding race in the previous years. With that in mind, I am still happy to ignore the claims of Bobs Worth, Lord Windermere and On Our Own.

After the Lexus, I decided that Bobs Worth had gone the way of several other Henderson stars .... they simply don't last at the top 'long'. Bobs Worth - based on his last 4 starts - does not look the consistent performer he was in winning at three consecutive Festivals and as we learned from his trainer when the horse was at his peak, he doesn't take racing too well. It's likely at this stage, he's had just had too much racing.

Lord Windermere is a dangerous horse to rule out but I would have to basically put all my faith in the belief that he reserves his best for Cheltenham. Without being harsh on the horse, I think there was an element of him picking up the pieces in last year's Gold Cup. His run in the Lexus confirmed to me that he's not a horse I want to trust with my money.

On His Own is not a horse I could even begin to understand. He has turned out two exceptional performances in last year's Gold Cup and this season's Lexus and sandwiched in between two efforts at Punchestown and Down Royal that were the polar opposite. I would suffice to say that there are surely more reliable runners and indeed probably several more runners fitting the profile of a Gold Cup winner, of which I doubt On His Own is.

Road To Riches, Many Clouds and Djakadam are the improvers and probably all still somewhat unexposed to the handicapper. Arguably speaking, there's more to come from all three which is want you want from a Gold Cup runner. They all ascended through the ranks by winning handicaps as opposed to what I would consider the more traditional route of shining / dominating at novice level. You couldn't say this time last year any of that trio caught the eye as future Gold Cup winners but by winning the Galway Plate, the Hennessy and the Thyestes, they all became contenders. In the case of Road To Riches and Many Clouds, they have proved they are more than just 'handicappers' by winning the Lexus and the Cotswold Chase and I suspect Djakadam would do the same if given the opportunity.

I would be fearful of all three but the horse I cannot get away from is Silviniaco Conti - a proven Grade 1 performer at this level. He's been running in Grade 1 company for 5 years and to me is tougher and classier than all else that will oppose him. I think he's reliable too - he jumps, he stays and he quickens. I could not ask for anymore. I cannot read anything into what happened on the run-in last year. For me it was one of those things and Wellchief has outlined a number of explanations above. In the 3 Grade 1 races run in the UK since, he's won them all, indicating that he's by far the best of the English challengers.

Two horses I haven't mentioned Boston Bob and Holywell, I would no interest whatsoever in. I would agree with others First Lieutenant as an outsider is interesting. Maybe he's getting on and his best chance has passed but I'll be watching him with interest in the Irish Hennessy. But there's no getting away from Silviniaco Conti for me and 7/2 with **** would represent value at this stage, even if there exists the possibility for him drift further.

Good write up soyouthink

I don't think Conti is being over-rated as such, but what is happening is that he is being stereo-typed by some people (which I've been guilty of myself) in as much as rather than admiring his impressive wins at Haydock and Kempton and rightly acknowledging those pieces of form as the stepping stones to the GC that they are, we have been using those exact pieces of form and on those tracks as a stick to beat him with regards to his chances around Cheltenham, the stereo type is further enhanced with what happened in the GC last year, providing, in some minds further proof that he doesn't get up the hill.

The fact is, he's done exactly what a GC contender is supposed to have done from this side of the water and more, leading up to the race and done so in a more convincing way than last year which gives weight to the other excusing fact about his make-up in that going into last years race he was ailing from ulcers.....the cheekpieces are another factor that definitely seem to have helped him.

okey doke

If Conti had run straight as an arrow on the run in in last seasons Gold Cup would he have won and by how far? I think he was most likely the best horse in the race, had he had the cheek pieces he'd have won by a length I'd say. 

He is a deserving fav, but he is very much in the pack for me. On His Own returned to form when he was fitted with Cheekpieces at Leopardstown and ran a cracker. Which puts Road to Riches and Conti very close at the top on a line through him.

We've Boston Bob, and on a line through First Lieutenant and his runs in spring at Aintree and Punchestown, he's close to Conti too. He will improve from his Lexus effort when he gets on better ground.

Then you have Many Clouds and his run on a line through the very solid Dynaste.

Conti has gone out and won the King George beating the Ryanair field at a track he clearly likes. But the other horses are closer to him on form lines than the market suggests.

For sure he is,wide open race without a real star,and imo one of the younger improvers is the way to go.
I don't dismiss Conti,just don't think he's value for a horse that's been there twice and failed,......whatever the excuses. Yes,falling I can accept,it happens,but leading at the last and not winning against the 3that beat him? thats harder to accept for me.