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Imagine if he actually went fav
Sorry but that is ridiculous. |
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Djakadam deserves to be Favourite. I've heard it all now.
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I do prefer Road to Riches for sure,he's my likeliest winner of the race,but I was really pleased to see Djakadam justify my bet on him .
I do think as others do that next year may see him mor likely to win than this year,but we now know he stays 3m well,and he's earned the right to run. And who knows how much improvement there will be come March. He's in the mix,that's good enough for me. |
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Certainly a different path to Hold Cup victory than is the norm.
A fall then a handicap victory off 145. |
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If you want something from the race that's not Djakadam stick a wedge on the horse who would have been 4l 2nd to him if not unseating at the last. I topped up on him for the 4 miler.
He'll be a good 2nd to the bet of the meeting in that race. ![]() |
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Bet of the meeting????
Early days to have the bet if the meeting CV. I'm interested to see what mark Ted Veale is allocated. |
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I know, I just think Wounded Warrior is as tailor made for the NH Chase as horses come. Once Don Poli & The Young Master go for the RSA the 4 miler market will have a big shakeup. So the 10/1 on offer is still huge value. Also I believe Irish novice chasers are superior to the English crop this year and we'll clean sweep the 4 chases.
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Yes agree, he is a stand out price. Like you say the other two will be heading to the RSA so he has to contract.
I do like Ptit Zig. Been impressed with him. Concerned though that Nicholls has said today he wants run him at Kempton. |
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^^^ in the JLT to scupper your clean sweep.
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Not sold on Ptit Zig at all, his defeat of Josses Hill isn't much, that horse would have needed the run and jumped shockingly. Then Champagne West is hardly a big player for anything at the festival and is a 3 mile+ horse too. 4/1 Ptit Zig, nah too short he looks great because he's good and he's racing against very poor crop of English Novice Chasers.
Think Vautour & Valsuer Lido, Apache Stronghold, Gilgamboa are better. |
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I'd say the Irish definitely have the strength in depth in the Arkle and JLT, but I think Britain will win one of them (possibly two).
Arkle - Ireland all over it - UDS, Gilgamoba, Clarcam; 1-0 Ireland JLT - Again Ireland have the depth in Vautour, Apache, Valsuer, but I'd back Ptit Zig if I had a clean slate; 1-1 RSA - Very close to call. Don Poli carrying the weight of Irish shoulders vs the depth of Kings Palace, Coneygree, Young Master, Champagne West. Final result is score draw Penalty shootout can be the St Patricks Derby Charity race ![]() |
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Would they ever just get rid of that bloody charity race. The Thursday is weak enough as it is. They need a 2mile Grade 2 mares novice hurdle.
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Gut feeling is that Djakadam could fall into the same category as conti, he'll travel well but suspect he won't get home....can see him going close in a few king georges though.
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So will Many Clouds find the likely good ground a problem in the Gold Cup. He was badly outpaced on good at Aintree last season. Not to mention he's well held by Conti on a line through Dynaste. He's a very likeable horse Many Clouds.
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I think it's the colours he's wearing, we're always going to tar him with the "old fashioned chaser" tag who will perennially be contesting long distance lumbering chases but suspect he'll not cope with the GC field...probably unfair but he'll never get the credit he deserves is my guess.
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Many Clouds still has a way to go to beat Silviniano Conti but at least my 22 ante post is looking OK.
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MC gone up in my estimation a lot after yesterday. Have to admit I didn't rate him as a serious GC threat but I do now.
Won a shade cosily, after it looker for a second that Smad might real him in, but always had enough. Was one of the strongest Argento's that I can remember in a while. |
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How important is soft ground for this horse?
"Quite Important" Sherwood said on ATR right now. |
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yeh,i would interpret that as he needs soft ground to win.
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Does anyone the story with First Lieutenant? I think the Irish Hennessy is the plan but will he go to the Gold Cup? I know a lot of people will dismiss him because he's getting on and his form this season hasn't been great.
He has a fair festival record though. 1st in the Neptune, 2nd in the RSA, 2nd in the Ryanair and NR on the morning of last year's Gold Cup. He's probably quirky enough but he's way better on fast ground and it was an alright run in the Lexus in the context of his dislike for soft conditions. He's a fair price at over 200/1 on here in my opinion. It's also his last chance to run in a Gold Cup most likely even though it's probably been the most obvious race for him since his first visit to the Festival. It'd be a shame if he never got a chance to run in the race. |
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I had some of First Lieutenant at a huge price on betfair myself, he'll go for the Gold Cup. Morris reported he'd had a problems at Down Royal and missed work, don't think he was fully fit for Lexus. He'll go for the Hennessy then Gold Cup.
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Don't think the winner of the Gold Cup ran yesterday, they all finished in a bit of a bunch for me. Conti for me still as the best form this year, the only question for me is does Cheltenham really suit him?. PN thinks the head gear will make the difference if it does he will win
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Road to Riches,Many Clouds,Djakadam.
All still improving. These 3 just could be better than the rest already,without expected improvement. Massive players,in particular RTR and MC. I am not including Conti in that,hes obviously a class act,but not at Cheltenham for me. Looking at Many Clouds,Houblon des Obeaux looks a lively outsider,especially if it comes up soft. |
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I've mentioned earlier on here that First lieutenant has the festival form to be in the mix and time will tell.
Also after yesterday we should not forget the Hennessy form has been franked a few times now. Unioniste a couple of weeks back, then Djakadam and yesterday the first Many Clouds and Smad Place confirmed the form again. HOUBLON DES OBEAUX was 2nd at Newbury giving the winner 6lb for the 3l beating. He then failed to give The Young Master 15lb at Ascot but that may have been impossible with Hindsight, but if it does come up soft at Cheltenham this horse has to be considered, perhaps not if it's good. i think he's been forgotten. |
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Yep Shockster, I was chatting with Steeplehasing on twitter and said Houblon was some value at 50.0 on betfair, which I took. He'll probably find it happening too quick if it's good ground. But with a bit of rain he's a got a good chance.
I'm also looking at the Young Master who beat Houblon at Ascot. He could be a bit of value at 12/1 for RSA. |
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Nice to see 3 top forumites agreeing on an outsider
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I hope HDO goes straight to Cheltenham as his form is good after a break and yes The Young Master has to be seriously considered for the RSA. He could be anything.
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Without digging up old arguments, Conti is still the standout 3m chaser. He beat Dynaste better than Many Clouds did (admittadly at a track Conti would have preferred, but I think Dynaste would have preferred Kempton too).
It's a very risky strategy to ignore him because of previous Cheltenham runs. As we've seen with Un De Sceaux, horse can fall at any time, but that doesn't mean it's the track's fault - in jump racing it just happens sometimes. Last year after Christmas a lot of Nicholls' horses weren't right, and this year we've seen better performances from Dodging Bullets, Al Ferof and Conti. |
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He goes straight there is the last quote I saw from the trainer,although that I think was straight after the race with TYM.As far as I know that's still the plan.
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Cheers Budd, looks like being a cracker with a big field. Wellchief you are right with regards to Conti, simply the best form in the race, just the Cheltenham factor.
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Steeplechasing was talking up Many Clouds on back of his good win yesterday, I said Houblon would prove better value imo, looks to be improving this season and is still pretty young (same age as Many Clouds, 8yo). He does look a better horse fresh to me too. Glad he goes straight there. Would - as always - want a soft ground Cheltenham.
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Yeh Chief fair comments mate.
Im thinking not so much ignoring him but just cannot back him at the price,given his failing twice in the race.Not so much the fall as that happens,but more last year jumping the last in front. Yep, take your points re Nicholls,and I also take in reports of ulcers last year and cheekpieces,but still at the prices I prefer the up and comers,and have a feeling they could be pretty special. |
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Fwiw, I don't think I'd be backing him at 3's either to be honest mate, although I do think he is the most likely winner. Only trouble is a few of the outsiders have all come in in price recently, so I'll just stick with what I've got on.
Had a 100/1 double on Vautour and Conti as well that's now down the drain ![]() |
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I just realised, Silviniaco Conti has beaten absolutely zero horses who will run the the Gold Cup this season. He's beaten no stayers either, just take a look at his last 2 wins. Has to be a big factor to consider.
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That's uncanny CVB just mentioned exactly the same to my mate earlier. I suppose you could say he beat Dynaste easier than Many Clouds did.
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Yes you could say he did, But Many Clouds is clearly saving a bit for himself on the run in and is looking pretty comfortable because when they get a bit close to him he's going away again. So he would be on par with Conti on a line through Dynaste who ran two very solid races on his last two starts, not tiring at end of either race tbh. I'd have him as a reliable 167 horse.
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The fact remains that S.Conti jumped the last in front last season and didn't get placed and I'm not having the ulcers argument as less than 3 weeks later he came out and won at Aintree over a sharp 3 miles. There are reasons to oppose him over 3m2f at Cheltenham.
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He was just beaten by better horses on the day, not by far though. The Giant Bolster only runs his race in the Gold Cup on decent ground. While the 1st and 2nd go back to Ireland and Conti returns to winning ways in the absence of the best rivals.
The cheek pieces probably have helped him, he wouldn't have wandered with them on. He's got a big chance alright, but he's not clear of his rivals by any means. I'd say he's more in the pack than many think, especially at Cheltenham. He won at Kempton last season after all. I see him as a drifter tbh from his 3/1, Bookies will really want to be taking him on, so many potential winners of this race. If ground is good to soft. I'd want to be against Conti, Bobs Worth, Holywell, Smad Place & Many Clouds. I'd be on the side of Road to Riches, Lord Windermere, Carlingford Lough and Boston Bob. Djakadam one for next year I feel. |
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I am a big conti fan but i wouldn't be backing him at all if i wasn't already on at 20s. That was merely a little bonus bet at the time i placed it, a kind of in case im wrong cos i am a fan. At 3/1 he is woefully short.
I like Road to Riches 20/1, Lord Windermere 12/1, Carlingford 20/1, Sam Winner 33/1 and now Many Clouds as yet unbacked for this at this stage. Bob's Worth has been pretty strong in the market of recent weeks too. Wonder if he is showing the same sparkle at home as when last time he was well. But still, i cannot see a previous winner winning this one. It does look stronger than last year on paper to me also. |
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That was merely a little bonus bet at the time i placed it, at the time i placed my main King George bet on him.
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