Cheltenham Festival
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The Gold Cup
The Gold Cup
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Replies: 614
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dont think ap can ride holywell if their is jp runner.
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I'd point to the grade 1 mildmay novices chase last April, and it's no good saying that's last year as, and particularly with Holywell, there is never ever going to be a string of form that sees high level performance early in the season as he is simply a different horse in the spring, poor performances early in the season should not be taken on face value and mean precisely in terms of the overall ability of the horse, we've seen it before, and time and time again we also gravitate toward horses that have performed well at the spring festivals because we see that they do it over again. Holywell's performance at Aintree looks all the more impressive now because of what the ones in behind him have since done, that is rock solid grade 1 form and he was running loose on the run in.
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only an opinion though, for what it's worth I'd fancy CL more in a national in due course.
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Refreshing post by you duffy, usually you save your posting for knocking without ever having a view.
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Don't think so...I've got loads of views....and I didn't say the same about TDS last year either, I said about him that I didn't think he had the pace for the arkle on the likely ground....the coneygree thing is different because I'm actually thinking that with his action and with the injury, he is in real danger of smashing his legs to bits...in any case, on good ground, he'll be a lot shorter in size come the end of the race.
This business of knocking to you and especially budd appear to be watching out for, it isn't nothing personal to the horse you must realize, I love JH as much as the next guy, we are discussing the horse and actually looking out for the horses's wellbeing....Iam definitely not pinning him up against the wall and demanding that he hand over his dinner money. |
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For me the best two trials this season are Lexus and yesterday's race.I can only see the Gold Cup being won by an Irish horse.
RTR and CL for me. |
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Out of today's race I'd sooner take LW myself, he travelled really well for the whole race and probably went for home too soon and basically blew himself out especially if he wasn't hard fit he's did it twice now at Cheltenham and despite the finish he ran with a lot of credit, certainly better now at this stage to how he went into last years GC.
If we are going to look at CL with a view to being right in the GC mix, we have to look at todays race and find a yardstick... that would be found in the shape of Foxrock who as an improving handicapper we can judge that he ran his race today and looking at it in the context of a GC have to wonder whether CL is going to be good enough, two 158 rated horses finishing close together. As we are at the stage though of having a vulnerable favourite CL is just another one of a host of horses that has form lines running through horses that have strong handicap form. |
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Handicappers do win Gold Cups and they place frequently.
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Yes, agreed, I was trying to infer that in my last bit there, that's the realm we're in atm....and it's what makes strong grade 1 form at a festival or two on decent ground all the more valuable, that's why I'm a big fan of Holywell.
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No worries Duffy,I use form as a betting guide for all horses,you ignore Holywells cos he's a spring horse.....fair enough and each to their own.
As for JH,I am a bit more forgiving and will wait till he gets his optimum race where he gets a fast pace on decent ground,then I will judge....again each to their own mate. I just simply have seen his jumping improve as his races quicken,so that's why I will wait. As for Carlingford,he's definitely a big player to me improving still and looks a real type that will appreciate 3m and 2f. |
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Mcclernon suits Holywell,won at last 2 festivals on him,McCoy will be on cl
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I should probably add that when I say using form as a betting guide I do think this seasons form is very important,whilst Aintree form I don't take so much notice of due to some horses being over the top,I am very wary of Aintree form for the following Cheltenham,that's just my choice I don't trust it.
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also fancy holywell for the gold cup and after watching his Aintree win again just strengthens my view ,the exploits of don Cossack and many clouds back the form up and he showed an impressive turn of foot between the last 2 fences and bounded away from a decent field , trusting jonjo to have him 110 % for the big day !
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CONEYGREE looks increasingly likely to take his chance in the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup rather than revert to novice company in the RSA Chase, although a final decision will be left as late as possible.
The eight-year-old put up a terrific front-running display when making it three wins from as many starts over fences in Saturday’s Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury, and connections are starting to wonder if this year’s open-looking Gold Cup might even be the easier option. Sara Bradstock, wife of trainer Mark, said on Sunday: "He’s incredible, but it’s nerve-wracking. He’s not a Gold Cup horse at home, where he’s become quite idle, so every time he runs and steps it up again it’s another bonus. "Before Saturday the needle was pointing very much towards the RSA, but after winning like that it’s much closer to the middle. In fairness he’s won enough prize-money now for us to go to the line before choosing so that we can take everything into consideration. "We’re not greedy and we’d be happy to win the RSA, but with Silviniaco Conti such a strong favourite despite being beaten last year the Gold Cup is tempting. It might even be the easier race." Bradstock reported Coneygree "very fresh", which suggests he did not take too much out of himself. She added he has earned a break now, albeit a short one. She said: "We’ll wrap him in cotton wool and he’ll have an easy time now, but he wouldn’t take more than a week of that without exploding. We’ll then build him up again for Cheltenham, but it’s all about keeping a lid on him. "Any injuries he’s had aren’t training injuries. They’re through being such an idiot. He’s a thug, but a likeable one. Mark has now taken to wearing three coats when he goes into his box as he bites so much. He’s given up trying to stop him and just wears protective armour now!" While the Bradstocks were delighted with the ride Coneygree was given by substitute jockey Richard Johnson, there is no question of the suspended Nico de Boinville losing the mount. Bradstock added: “We feel very sorry for Nico, who had a whip ban. In some stables it might have cost him the ride in future, but we’re not going to jock him off.” |
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Duffy, the thing with Josses Hill is that we are saying he should at least take his chance in the race, as a lot are saying he shouldn't run because he'll kill himself or something.
We are not talking of him like he's going to win the Arkle, whereas you are talking of Holywell not just running in, but winning a Gold Cup. The two are completely different. |
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Thanks for posting the article on Coneygree, Shockster
 It sounds like he is bit of a naughty boy at home, bless him  I'm glad Nico will be keeping the ride. Only 4 weeks today until Cheltenham Eve. How excited am I?  |
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Chief
Of course I'm not saying that he will categorically win the GC, but I am saying that he has stacks of important criteria stacking up in his favour, so he is as strong as anything, I take budd's point about current season's form and for horses generally I'd have the same view as him, naturally enough, but not when it comes to Holywell and that is based on evidence we've seen previously, an all out 1/2 length defeat of victor hewgo, an unseat or a defeat by Hi George isn't form you'd expect to see before winning at the festival or a grade 1 victory at Aintree, but that's the polar opposites you get with this horse, suffice to say if this horse won the next 3 GC's, he'd still pre-empt it with indifferent form through the winter on bad ground...that's just my view, and again I'm not saying he'll win, but I think he's going in there with stronger claims than most. |
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Do you not feel his previous "below par" winter form may have had something to do with his HANDICAP Cheltenham targets?
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Unless of course JonJo ran him on merit and he just found the extra stone needed to expose his handicap mark!!!
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Owner Barry Connell will decide whether to supplement Foxrock for the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup in the next fortnight.
The Ted Walsh-trained seven-year-old was sent off favourite for the Irish Hennessy, despite being stepped up to Grade One level from handicap company. He looked likely to win jumping the last, only for Tony McCoy to produce a fairytale finish on Carlingford Lough to take the prize. "We were very happy with him. It was a super run, his jumping is very good now and he battled away all the way to the line," said Connell. "He's got all the attributes of a three-mile chaser. "I just think with Carlingford Lough being two years older, he just had that bit more experience and was battled hardened. Our lad was staying on again at the finish. "He's progressing with every run and he's bridged the gap from handicaps to Grade Ones quickly, like Road To Riches has done. "They actually met in a beginners chase at Naas last year and there wasn't much between them then and I don't think there would be now. "The division is open, I think the novices coming through from last year have proved that. "We have three weeks to decide whether to supplement or not. We'll see how he comes out of this first and then make a decision in about a fortnight. "We'll keep an open mind. In an ideal world you'd go next year when he is eight, but it's a nice dilemma to have." |
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brandy
If he had won the handicap at the festival in isolation you'd have a valid point, but he then went on to gag up in a grade 1 at Aintree where the handicap mark played no part...so even if jonjo was "looking after him" shall we say  he's certainly gone on from then to show just how good he is in the spring in relation to bigger targets. |
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Holywells form on decent ground with Blinkers on 1121 second was to reigning world Hurdle winner Solwhit at Aintree 2013..he wore them once on heavy over 20f behind Quevega..
H'e obv not the most straightforward animal and one day, they might not work..but you cant really compare his form with CP'S on to the level he's shown with blinkers. if he lines up on decent ground on fri 13th then he'll be my bet to win the race |
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Duffy
I'm not denying he is much more than a handicapper, his Aintree win proved that. My point was that his winter form was poor purposely because they wanted this graded animal in a handicap off a very lenient mark. I think it's a huge leap of faith to be backing Holywell this time round off the back of what he has achieved this term. |
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Hollywell is definitely much better than he has shown, however we don't know if his best is good enough. If you're a backer then you need to have a leap of faith that Jonjo works the oracle.
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Especially as his two previous festival victories came off a prep the same calendar year. This time he has had one and half races, and the half was at the beginning of December.
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Fair points....especially the 1 1/2 races, we are in a situation where there is a leap of faith for every runner in the race, even the fav to a degree...I just Holywell's is more of an energetic hop rather than a leap
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 It's a tough Gold Cup with not a lot between a handful of runners. I'm sure like many others Holywell was on my shortlist at the start of the season. Would have preferred to see more of him this season. If he wins it won't be a huge surprise but I couldn't back him myself. GL though. |
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must be hardest race we have seen to call, in a long time, im clueless
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^
Isn't it about time you got that Cheltenham quiz back up....I was trawling back through the pages last night and spotted it, I was going to bump it but didn't want to catch you with your trousers down....so to speak  |
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shall we have a national hunt quiz starting tomorrow?
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Howdi
09 Feb 15 15:07 Joined: 13 Oct 04 | Topic/replies: 27,050 | Blogger: Howdi's blog must be hardest race we have seen to call, in a long time, im clueless How refreshing!!!!!  |
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can u elaborate on this please...^^^
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Duffy
Why on earth did you mention Howdi with his trousers down....just about to have my tea FFS!!! |
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surprised that put you off your tea
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i would hasten to add its not often I'm clueless
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http://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/29457781/howdis-fact-of-the-day-bar-buddelia
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Howdi
09 Feb 15 17:55 surprised that put you off your tea Plain It wouldn't have done ordinarily but I think on this occasion he was having saveloy and chips  |
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or perhaps chipolata in this case
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Actually I do have Saveloys occasionally but with Pease Pudding. Tonight I had Lasagne. |