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I hope Vautour runs in the Arkle. However I can't believe the massive over reaction from bookies today. You would think UDS had been 3 lengths down and ridden before falling at the 3rd last. He jumped very well before the fall (well from what I could see considering the camera man was having his first day on the job). I honestly don't think this changes anything with regards to intended plans, unless of course he was to make a habit of it. I still wouldn't rule out a return to France though ...
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I can't make my mind up about Un De Sceaux...he looks like a total monster in his performances, but if they truly believe he's top class then what is he doing arsing around at Gowran and Autieul? It just feels to me like they have a hunch that he'll get found out in top races. Purely my own feeling, not based on anything else.
I think Vautour could be a bit like Faugheen for last year's Neptune, hammered all year and wins easily. I just can't see anything at this point to get near him. Budd, I know you like to search for a bit of value and that, but Vautour absolutely spanked Sgt Reckless and Josses Hill red-raw in the Supreme, and given he's almost certain to make a better chaser, I couldn't have those two on my mind. But outside them, what have we got at this point to face Vautour? All I have is Gilgamboa, who made a shattering error at the 2nd last in the Supreme which ended his chance, so may well have given Vautour a race. You can say I'm paying too much attention to hurdles form, but they're the same beasts at the end of the day. Fences can improve a horse of course, but in this case it looks like Vautour is actually the one to benefit most from the transition. |
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^ So true, if you scroll down the Arkle market on oddschecker, you can't pick anything with confidence to put it up to Vatour at this stage. Maybe Ptit Zig imo. I'm never afraid to take on one horse but I think this will be a dead market right up to Cheltenham as it stands.
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Patterson, I think the reaction was also a lot to do with the way he went about the race as much as the fall. This may sound stupid but it's almost the same as when Frankel won the Guineas - he went right out for the derby not due to ability but due to the fact they knew it wasn't the right race for him. I've not been a higher believer of UDS really until today but I just don't think they'll take him to Chelt, and I feel that's what the bookies may be thinking as well.
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Hi joist, yeh I do think at this stage Mullins is the most likely trainer of the Arkle winner,so do the bookies and most everyone else!! As you say though I do like to look for possible value and horses that may well improve for chasing,I have come up with those two,we shall see in time if I am clever or stupid!! I do know that Josses hill was always intended to go chasing and Henderson is pretty gentle with his novice hurdles so think he will be much improved horse this season,and SR is in a stable well known for its chasers(knight not channon I should add)
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GI, I think we can give the game up if Ptit Zig wins an Arkle
![]() The Tullow Tank would be an obvious danger but surely more likely to be over further at the Festival. Three Kingdoms perhaps, but he's just another one who got a good long distant look at Vautour's hole in the Supreme. I'm torn between my brain saying that the Arkle can't possibly be cut and dried at this early stage, and the rest of me saying Vautour is a day 1 cert ![]() |
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Hi Budd, I wouldn't say you're stupid even if you're wrong, nothing wrong with looking for some value. Josses Hill would definitely be a danger but it concerns me that he hasn't been seen yet and as of a couple of weeks ago in the stable tour, hadn't even schooled yet over fences. But if he turns up fit and well having had a few runs over fences, then he's certainly a danger. At this point, I just don't think he can be a betting proposition.
I like Sgt Reckless, he's got a great name and is a very promising animal. But an Arkle winner? Only in a sub-standard year IMO. Which, to be fair, could well be this year ![]() |
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Joist, as re what they think of UDS: look at it this way.......would we know more about him if Ricci owned him? My feeling is we would. They have a horse that wins by a distance practically everyone time he runs,yet never run him in a race to test him further,just makes no sense,unless it suits the stable and their other horses,that's the only explanation I can think of as to why a horse is never put in a race against testing opposition. All my years of watching horse racing I have never seen this before,and that's a lot of years mate!!!
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good horse is Ptit Zig.
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In fairness GI, I've just looked back at his form and I may have been a bit harsh! A good quality beast for sure. In the Twist Magic colours, if he's going as strongly in the Arkle as Twist Magic was, you could be in clover.
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Actually he isn't in the Twist Magic colours is he, having a nightmare
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too many impondarables in this race ,have backed vautour but wont be topping up as depending on other outcomes he could run in any of 3 races ..........gonna concentrate on other races till the picture is more clearer !
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A certain Kauto Star fell on his chase debut, the rest is history ...
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Kauto Star won his chase debut, it was his second chase he fell in.
However, Moscow Flyer and Big Zeb both fell in their beginners chases, they weren't too bad either! |
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The crucial point about today's events and it shouldn't be dismissed as an over-reaction because it isn't is the fact that the one big worry about this horse and a chasing career was the possibility of him going ar5e over apex due to his free running slightly out of control way about it....that achilles heel was the exact thing that happened so it becomes even more of a worry from this point onwards.
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Yep,totally agree Duffy,he does seem rather one dimensional,and at the speed he goes he's more liable to not find a leg should he hit one. Maybe the answer is back hurdling if that's the case. On the positive side he did show he could jump a fence and a clear round would imo see him very hard to peg back at 2m whatever the opposition having proved he stays further than 2m. Of course he may prove not good enough in top company,but we won't know that till he's entered in a race that would tell us.
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UDS was looking very good but I agree with others that I find his way of going through a race quite scary over fences. He jumps fine but jockeys appear to be nothing more than a passenger on him and unless he learns to be more tractable and learn to fiddle over a few of his fences there is always going to be a chance he lands in a heap. Thankfully his fall wasn't too bad. I think I'd put a hood on him and at least try to get him under a bit of control.
Vautour apparently heading to Leopardstown over Christmas next over 2 miles again. |
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Entered Boxing Day 2m 1f, but also Topaz over 3 miles ffs! Will be shocked if going 3 miles already, maybe next season will step him up in trip?
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Tbf many people said the same about SS before he won the Arkle namely that if he hit a fence coming down the hill at Chelts he would be falling for miles after it. My belief is that if UDS stays sound and wins all his remaining races and the ground is on the softish side of good he runs in the Arkle and Vautour in the JLG. There are only three ifs in that sentence but the ground is the real unknown. Very few mad tearaways win competitive grade 1s at the festival.
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Above post was relating to Vautour entered for 3 miler lol!
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not being funny but who wants to go for the jlt when your a supreme novice hurdle winner... doesn't make any sense to me...no disrespect to the jlt but a supreme winner in the jlt really don't get it myself...
this comes down to keeping walsh happy but sometimes good horses have to meet and in this case i think the pair should meet in the arkle trophy... if fingers crossed they both make it fit and healthy...mullins has plenty of other middling horses to win a jlt, there is only one arkle chase after all |
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Harry,
Could not agree more. If during the season both have earned the right to contest the race then both should be in it. Should really be as simple as that.......but we know it wont be. |
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It would be one of the highlights of the festival for sure. As you say, such a shame it wont happen.
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Another move by PP to 'get' Vautour in the Arkle market. Have nudged him out to joint top price 7/2 from 3's.... still noticeably shorter than anyone else for the JLT at 9/4
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I personally believe they think it will whatever races he runs in (see win any race market). I have a feeling they are just trying to get their book in a position where they won't lose too much cash.
Forty |
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Agree with Harrys post above.
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Vautour all set for Leopardstown at xmas re Willie.
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Hopefully all set for Arkle on 25 th Jan, 8/1 biggest PP and Sid for Arkle, but has contracted in last week in win any race 6s to 7/2. lets hope Vautour and UDS meet in one Arkle or another, have my doubts.
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Forget the notion that pp know it all. They may get a heads up when plans are finalised, but nothing is concrete until after the 25th. Maybe UDS works better, i wouldn't know. Ricci will want 2 miles if his horse is in good nick. There's no way they've decided jlt. UDS hasn't even run at Cheltenham before.
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Someone who talks sense graeme83,no way they would risk a slog 1st time over 2 and a half,the new course takes some getting !
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Shortened significantly for the QMCC today...
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Think they would be mad to run in Queen Mother, no matter who shows Arkle horse end of hopefully.
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Catch he has shortened but only nr no bet firms,they havent taken a pound on him, 85 on here for £8, last price matched 75 for Queen Mother.
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Always hard to know for sure what's going on with this yard,but it does seem pretty obvious thatUDS is Being aimed at the Arkle. Now it's just a case of whether Vautour joins him or runs in the JLT,hope it's the Arkle. Can't se them going for the QM,goes against what they have always said about novices and senior races.
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Ah right Stevo. Hadn't realised they had gone that today. Cheers
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It's looking more likely Vautour goes for the JLT now, especially if he runs on Sunday in the 2m3f race won by Djakadam last year.
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Yes if he runs Sunday looks that way,done my nuts for Arkle,got him win any race to save stake only some compensation.
Things could still change before now and Festival if UDS fails in Irish Arkle? This was Vautours target when I last read any quotes from trainer but who knows? Thought they would run UDS in another egg and spoon race before Cheltenham, but at least he may meet something decent if running in Irish Arkle? |
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A lot can happen still,the way the weather is Sunday might be on,if Vautour does run on Sunday I can understand jlt,just thought it would be strange going irish arkle then jlt,still gutted though,allez columbieres deed,vautour jlt bound,next faugheen will miss champion hurdle for Aintree lol, take my shoelaces off me someone please !
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not sure you have done your doh yet...sunday looks a nice race to get him back on track after last time...if they had put the gun to his head again in the irish arkle and he had disappointed again not sure where they would of been with the horse
i still can't buy mullins is going to run valseur lido and him in the same race and that race being the jlt chase doesn't make sense to me...the plot thickens maybe valseur will go up in trip not sure |
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Yep its starting to unravel a tad.
Could be : UDS....Arkle Vautor.....JLT Valseur Lido......RSA Don Poli......4 Miler But then again..... ![]() |