Agree with Tucho here, if you have to have a bet and make up under round books like i do with your ante post punting, just look at what possible and there fore most likely opponents anything that Mullins is going to run will have and try and get them at decent ish prices. Backing anything trained by Mullins imo at this early stage for the novice races is nothing more than guess work and will land you in the poor house with antepost punting on a regular basis. Of course once targeted races are known these mullins horses are often a lot shorter in the markets. But i look at it like this, you now backed its opponents at tasty prices, this mullins horse is 7/4 days leading up to these novice races, you can almost be sure that one or two bookies on the mornings of their respective races are going to want to get them and will offer enhancements, say 5/2-3/1! Happens every year!

As for people worrying about Paddy Power being top price, that wouldn't bother me in the slightest personally. Not the shrewdest around.

I'd generally agree TheCollector, but it has been very noticeable how much they want to get Vautour in the Arkle market imo.

I've had my max AP bet on Vautour for the Arkle, but also saver bets in case he goes JLT or CC. Can't emphasis enough the importance of having those saver bets on horses like him. GLTA.

Completely agree Tucho. My money is down on Vautour, and I've gone in quite heavily for me, as well as doubling up with Conti at nice prices.

There will be a lot of twists and turns between now and March and I think even the week before we will still be talking about this, so there will be loads of price fluctuations between now and then.

A lot will depend on the ground as well. Anything resembling good, and I don't think UDS will turn up, but if it comes up soft, I think he will.

For me at this stage, its a no brained that Vautour should be the stable number 1, but with different owners I see no reason why they both shouldn't run.

I'm sure Willie has other options for the JLT, Un Atout, maybe Rathvinden may go chasing etc. All up in the air at the moment.

Not sure he was 'all out' mate. Agree he was tiring but it looked a real slog on the ground.

Tory, Un Atout is owned by Ricci as well,just another point which some maybe dont know,Riccis horses do run against each other Supreme of 2013 Champagne Fever and Un Atout both owned by Ricci, also ran Pique Sous( not Riccis). Have had to back Vautour to win any race as back up, if not going Arkle route as on at PP silly prices 9s and 7s.Imo is no brainer he goes Arkle better race etc, and Mullins surely wont make mistake in sending him Champion Chase route,no matter who may turn up? Valseur could be JLT horse owned by Gigginstown,so no worries for Ruby as think Un Atout will step up in trip?

Un Atout is Gigginstown owned so like Tory States, he doesn't come into the equation.

Mind you, considering Un Atout is entered in the Drinmore, they could well go to the RSA with him.

Also as re the ground,yes UDS keeps running on soft, so its obvious he can handle it, but he did win a bumper effortlessly on good/soft.
Would be interesting to see him in a top race on good,good/soft sort of ground.
I do think listening to Ruby the other day, that the gloves are off now and hes going to be contesting the top races.
Lets hope he proves good enough,i think he will, but can never be too confident till they are put up against decent horses,and of course he has to prove that he is able to jump a fence well.

Well I was just asking the question,and its certainly up for debate.
UDS has a higher rating I believe, and last season he was not in novice company,although admittedly not in top company either.
We don't really know how good UDS is/was over hurdles, so its somewhat of a guessing game.
I do know though it aint cut and dried as some seem to say.

To be honest I've never really compared then till now,and I'm not sure we have that much to go on anyway when comparing.If you look at all their hurdles over 2 miles,neither can be crabbed. UDS is still totally unexposed at 2m,so it's virtually impossible to get a grip on how good he was.Both now go chasing and we have no idea how good either are at this stage.Would not surprise me should either prove to be the better over time,but I do find it surprising that some seem confident Vautour is the better,with such lack of knowledge re UDS and his capabilities.

Vautour is just as unexposed, is he not?

Obviously you're right that UDS could still be anything Budd, but as Sint says, some people are just going off what they see and feel having watched racing for a long time. UDS could end up proving me wrong and be rate next Arkle, but that's just my opinion at this stage.

It will be a bit of a shock if Vautour doesn't prove at least as good over fences as he was over hurdles. He has steeplechaser written all over him, is clearly very talented and has delivered at Cheltenham already.

I expect to see him in the Arkle but with WPM, we know the risks of plumping for any engagement before the final decs!

They have to get there of course and there will be many twists and turns before they line up in 3 and a half months time.

GLTYA

Un De Sceaux shouldve ran in this year's Champion Hurdle and should run in next year's after that.

Vautour will win the Arkle at 4/7

UDS miles clear of 15 non-triers when falling, jumped well until then,though was bit free.

PP now shortest price 3/1 Vautour for Arkle. No more joking around for them.

if he can fall at Thurles in a donkey race with no one round him he's got no ****g chance in an Arkle.

Won't turn up at Cheltenham. Walsh and Ricci will decide it will be Vautour.

Would you back him for an Arkle though Budd? The horse looked very very good today and jumped like a stag until the mistake but ..... I wouldn't want to back him at Chelt. I actually think the prospect of him coming down the hill and meeting a fence at the speed he would be travelling at is quite a scary prospect. He's clearly a serious animal but I'm not sure that race at that track would be safe for horse or jockey

Right now,no I would not back fir the Arkle, I would though if he were a bigger price,he's too short at this stage for me. I prefer Sgt. Reckless at the prices and have done Josses hill as well start of season. For me it's al about seeing him in top races over 2m,I just find it exciting and intriguing watching to see the race unfold with a front runner and top opposition in behind,the tactics of the jockeys etc.