Yes, WA different gravy. I was a big fan of DH in his novice hurdling days and you can't take his Hennessey away from him but he was largely disappointing over fences. Was told several years ago to be wary of all Sir Harry Lewis's....quirky as feck apparently.

Which one B....Weapons Amnesty or Diamond Harry?

Erm right ok.Dont have time to go through the various threads from previous seasons but please feel free to do so on my behalf.People like you are the ones that put threads up like "Willie Mullins chase watch" counting how many fallers he has.Laughable really...anyway,please feel free to look at stevo1s thread and add your ante post book to the list.Im adding to them as and when and by all means feel free to comment. Would appreciate your expert opinion. Looking forward to seeing your list......by the way have you actually ever been to Cheltenham?They have a lovely souvenier gift shop near the parade ring!

Yep,nothing bizarre about talking about an exciting novice before Cheltenham.
Thought that was normal.

I think the reason why there is so much on him is:

1) he is incredibly exciting and has so far looked a machine. His bumper form as so far stacked up and it's my understanding that he was the Mullins' yard number 1 bumper horse last year, which speaks volumes.

2) because he is a Mullins horse we haven't got a damn clue what is going on with him - where he's likely to run next and potential cheltenham target. This is then intensified by the fact that they also have Briar Hill. Both are short for Neptune and AB, but will obv get split up. There were also some chunky(ish) AB bets on Briar Hill a week or so ago.

I think number 2 is main reason for so many posts - people wanting to know everyone else's thoughts. I backed him for the Neptune before he raced and immediately after his first race. Will admit that on his campaign so far, may not be looking so good for me.

AP for me though is a little bit of fun to keep me entertained until March when do trends etc. I chuck between £10-£30 on one or two horses in a few races and hope i get lucky. Works sometimes and doesn't on others. Simonsig was the best when I had £20 at 22(ish) on here for Neptune before he raced.

An angle I use is jockey power last year I knew barry G would want to ride both simonsig and captain conan so did them in a double for arkle Jewson at 4/1 & 12/1 respectively didnt pay out but the logic was correct. Anyway what I am saying is Ruby will want to ride both Faugheen and Briar Hill so they will deffo not be in the same race. Briar Hill has the stoutest pedigree related to boston bob etc so IMO will go AB meaning Faugheen will go neptune by default. Also agree with well chief running Faugheen over 3m doesnt mean its AB he just needed a run somewhere. Could be wrong but thats my opinion and i have backed both individualy and had a £15 double 12/1 & 10/1 when do you think we will know? he declared ponte alexanders target quite early last year doubt we will know these twos target until 48 hour stage! good luck all

Great forum discussion!  I suggest that limiting this to primarily a decision between Faugheen and Briar Hill might be premature.  Mullins will run more than one horse in each race (but probably for different owners) so no doubt there is a scenario that they both turn up for the same race.  Mullins probably doesn't know where his French breds fit yet either (cos he only got some of them in the summer), so they will come into the equation as he understands their ability. There are others too; Turnandgo was thought to be one of his best novices but obviously has had a problem (anyone know if he is out) but he comes in to the equation for either AB or Neptune if he is fit and well and some might say that he his better than both.  I wouldn't back either Faugheen or Brian Hill at current prices, even with a run, because they maybe up against each other and/or other Mullins horses let alone the others.

Still waiting for Graeme83 to put his ante post selections up on stevos thread but I'm sure the great man will tell us all a week after the festival how great he is after it's all over

Not sure he enjoyed that kept changing his legs pure stamina, agree Ballydoyle 3 miler for me

agree he looked more of a 3miler today,but to be fair to the horse he was carrying 10lb more than very wood,so not that bad a run imo.

I will be more pleased when I see Apache run again

Good post Harry,interesting point about big fields.
Personally aint backed any of Mullins nov hurdlers thus far, but hes one I will have on my side in his chosen race.
You right imo, he is tricky to assess.

You would Tory,but He weren't short of finishing speed in the Bumper.
And I still aint forgotten where Ch Fever ended up last Cheltenham!!
Yep,watching that today it looked like the 3m would suit best,but I have a feling it aint as simple as that with this one.

Looking ahead to the Cheltenham Festival, trainer Willie Mullins said: "He'll get an entry in all three novice hurdles at Cheltenham but you would imagine he'll go for either the Neptune or the Albert Bartlett."

Mullins added:  "It was a nice performance giving that weight away against two good horses. He might get another run before Cheltenham. That ground wouldn't be his preferred, it just makes him lazy. That's his nature. He's improving and jumped well. He might get a trip."



interesting comments from willie make what you will, but it does come across he is just an idle horse

i wonder whether he would go straight there fresh as he did last year but willie clearly feels better ground will suit also

i will add one further thing just to spice up the debate, slightly off the cuff, just me, it probably won't happen or will people agree with, and that is i would like to see him in a pair of blinkers/headgear at cheltenham to enhance his chances as have seen plenty like him who are saving themselves or cannot be asked and he is right in that category...it might perk him up as it has so many others in the past and he is the type who i think that would take to them and be more affective, just my own opinion and like i say it probably wouldn't happen

I wouldn't take what WPM says about this horse (or any other novice for that matter) at face value. Unless the races cut up badly, he won't be much/any shorter for his chosen target in 9 weeks time.

The thing is though mate, I think he will go off a lot shorter, so getting the race correct now can put you on a good price in comparison to the SP.

If history is anything to go by, once the target has been set, Willie's horses (particularly the novice hurdlers) tend to be backed accordingly.

So Young - 2/1f
Pont Alexandra - 6/4f
Mikael D'Hagaunet - 5/2f
Boston Bob - 6/5f
Cousin Vinny - 9/4f
Quel Esprit (Neptune) - Backed from 13/2 to 7/2jf (with Rite of Passage) once Neptune was confirmed and Ruby to ride in the days leading up (SP 5/1)
Hurricane Fly (Supreme Novices) - 3/1f when pulled out two weeks before the race, and imo would have been a lot shorter if he'd turned up.

Based on this, I see Faugheen being a maximum 2/1 on the day, if the Neptune is his target, so the 7/1 on offer now could look big on the day.  Not saying he'll win, but I think he'll shorten up considerably.

alleged22
alleged22 05 Jan 14 21:54 Joined: 18 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 1,203 | Blogger: alleged22's blog
he might get a trip? lol

this is what was said


"He's improving all the time. It was a nice performance giving weight away against two good horses, and that probably wouldn't be his preferred ground. I imagine I might give him another run before Cheltenham - we'll see, though, as I haven't anything in mind.

"He's lazy, and Ruby said the minute he passed the winning post he dropped it (the bridle) - he only does enough all the time. He jumped well and hopefully he will keep improving.

"He's bred to get a trip, but he seems to have plenty of speed on better ground. He'll get an entry in the three races at Cheltenham, but I imagine we'll look at the Neptune or the Albert Bartlett, depending on what other runners we have."

he,s bred to get a trip

And there's your problem with Mullins, its not what s best for the horse its what s best for the stable

the more i think about mullins comment saying briar hill has plenty of speed on good ground still gives me a little hope he will end up in supreme !

And he'll be a whopping lay at the festival at a silly price, from that list above, only one of them actually won, it does happen most years though, a horse getting ridiculously backed in on the back of a couple of strolls round at 1/5 or whatever beating nothing, then the festival and a completely different scenario awaits...I hope he does win his next race easily.

But if he wins the G2 2 1/2 mile novice easily at Leop on Irish Champion Hurdle Day, that's a whole different level of form to be taking into the Festival than beating trees at Limerick. I said if!