Cheltenham Festival
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Faugheen
Faugheen
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No longer has the level required.
Now what? |
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Prediction - Runs in the Champion Hurdle and immediately after,Retired.
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Istabraq job??
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Its way too premature to write off Faugheen. By any other horse's standards that run on Saturday was decent enough, and may well have got him placed in a Champion Hurdle.
Fair enough, by his own standards it was a poor run and nothing like what he showed us in November when he looked every bit as classy as in his pre-injury days. It could well be that he had picked up a virus of sorts and just might be coming back to himself again now. Five weeks is a long time in racing and I wouldn't be in the least surprised if they got him back near his best by then. |
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Just cannot see it happening.
Hope you are right though. |
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I have written him off as a viable betting proposition. Couldn't think about putting money on him after last two runs. Way too many unknowns and negatives. Would love to see him have one more day in the sunshine but cant see it happening and definitely would not put my money on it. In my opinion Buveur D'Air is the real deal nowadays and Faugheen at 10 after nearly two years off the track and two poor runs is no match for him. If he gets to Cheltenham he is running for a place at best. My hard nosed non sentimental side says he runs at Cheltenham, gets pulled up and retires. I hope I am wrong. I hope he runs well, takes a place and goes out on his shield and retires.
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Agree with FTV here.
Yes, getting beat by a 3 miler was a disappointment, and do I think he'll win the Champion Hurdle - probably note, but I think he is still a long way clear of the rest behind Beveur D'Air - 7/1 nrnb is a fair price imo. If you look at the betting he has Melon covered, and by association, MTOY. Looks like Yorkhill, Apples Jade and Min won't run here, as The New One won't, and he has him covered too anyway. You're then getting down to the Chtibello's of this world and surely a 50% Faugheen can have him. Wicklow Brave has ability, but is quirky, ran poorly on the flat and then poor in Australia. I think 7/1 nrnb is ok, just in case anything does happen to Beveur. |
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wellchief I wouldn't want to put you off a confident selection - just a warning I wouldn't be confident myself that Faugheen has the beating of Melon, quite clear Melon wasn't 100% the other day so couldn't write that one off.
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having said that, as always my opinions are based on no factual or inside information whatsoever, purely my own guesswork and speculation - so bet on what you want :)
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Very true re Melon lat time out Bigfield; just not really convinced of him anyway. Last year's Supreme looks nothing special this year with the likes of Melon losing 3 races since, River Wylde and Ballyandy not looking world beaters over fences etc.
His form this year isn't much - the race was there for him at Cheltenham and couldn't beat MTOY or The New One - The New One only scraping home against Chtibello since - the 20/1 about Melon seems about right to me. He might prove me wrong but I fear he'll be an excuses horse, where people have one after every run. |
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yep very true about the Supreme form mate, just because it's the supreme doesn't mean the horse(s) will come on to be world beaters a season later.
if he doesn't prove good enough at cheltenham then there can't be excuses (though like you said people always find them when they want to - horse too keen, horse taken too wide, made a couple of blunders, took too keen a hold, dropped too far out etc etc). My thoughts regarding the horse this year have been that he hasn't been 100% throughout and they've been waiting for Cheltenham for him to be fully wound up, but thinking about what you've stated that would go against what Mullins usually does with his potential championship horses the year after their novice campaign, so on reflection you're probably right about him just not being up to championship level :D |
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Hard to believe I’m posting on this again over 6yrs later (quite a lot has happened in that period!) but got to say I was critical in connections for going over fences with this legend at the age of 11 but like a good oil change, it seems to have fine tuned the machine again! Amazing to win a G1 at 11 let alone a G1 novice chase against a hyped Gigginstown second coming. I would bother backing him for any novice chase at the festival though because if he gets there in good health as a 12yo then surely they’ll go for an open G1, dare I say the Gold Cup. I just hope he gets a long healthy retirement in the future as he’s become one of my all time fav NH horses
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Where he goes at Cheletenham is nearly a complete mystery - his trainer cheekily muted The RSA the way he jumped and galloped after beating Samcro; 10 and 23 for The JLT and RSA respectively - way too big for either which might mean neither otherwise 4 and 12.
Let's hope he stays sound, and this his final season. |
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I have laid him at 33/1 for the 4 miler
should I be worried regards Ronnie, |
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No worries there I think you'll be ok. Mullins will most probably go for a Grade 1 eg JLT, RSA, Ryanair or Gold Cup.
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impossible.
thank you might sleep well tonight. regards Ronnie. |
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He's in 3 eg Marsh (JLT), RSA and National Chase. Surely a Grade 1 race - the betting suggest too.
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impossible
any news on Laurina have a nice evening regards Ronnie. |
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'ronnie', Laurina has been entered for two ie Marsh (JLT) and RSA; she's also in the Flogas over 2m 5f on 2nd Feb at Leopardstown.
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Impossible
thank you I lave laid her for the arkle so dinner will taste nice this evening. regards Ronnie. |
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That was astute laying Laurina in The Arkle. She'd be rushed-off her feet against the likes of Notebook and Fakir D'oudaries.
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Will this old fogey win today at Leopardstown? I hope so, and Cheltenham too before he bows put; 7/4 each Faugheen and Battleoverdoyen.
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The Elliott army looking a bit threadbare this weekend. I know he won two handicaps but no Grade ones yet. Only Delta Work left.
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I am not an expert but doesn’t that count as after timing Irish
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Didn't go hard enough on BOD, he looks an out and out stayer and he allowed it to turn into a necessity for a bit of pace from two out, which Faugheen used to get a little in front and then hang on.
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any chance he goes for the 4 miler
regards Ronnie. |
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I think Mr Mullins has Carefully Selected (CS) in that - he ensured CS was qualified by running in a specific race at Limerick last week. Also, after today 2m 5f he seemed not wanting too much more. He was matched at 75 for the 4 miler, but the markets are reflecting he might not show up at Cheltenham at all, probably Punchestown before retiring.
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any updates
have a good day regards Ronnie. |
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Despite winning the Flogas Mr Mullins has been very un-forthcoming despite asked point blank about his next destination. I think it's likely he may skip Cheltenham and saved for either Aintree or Punchestown.
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