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That's a very Anglocentric response.
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Thats where the best horses meet, its the of "Royal Ascot of jump racing" as a newspaper in the 1910s described it, its where Ireland gain momentum over the decades and started to come over and conquer England, its where France AQPS horses used to come over and compete(Le Paillon was even second in the CH before winning the Arc de Triomphe the same year) before they began selling to Irish or English owners most of their quality jump horses in recent times. Its the world cup of football and its where Arctic Fire showed he's a G1 horse in the main championship event of 2 mile hurdles of the season. AF then confirmed his G1 quality at Aintree when travelling all over Jezki before falling at the last. NC won all the important novice races outside of Cheltenham and he beat IT in the Leop'town Ryanair Hurdle last month, who in turn IT won the England's G1 Fighting Fifth, therefore NC is also a proper G1 horse even though he didn't win a race at the festival. I can't be anglocentric by defending NC or IT race records outside of the festival, or Faugheen (IRE) for that matter, can I?
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I see Faugheen received an OR of 176 from the Irish handicapper. Do people think he'll improve on that again in the Champion Hurdle? Personally I think he ran his Champion Hurdle last Sunday and it's more likely he'll to run to something like low 170s in March (faster ground, bigger field, contested lead - all these things considered I think conditions will be that little bit less favourable). Not that there's anything to beat him. My Tent or Yours and Arctic Fire are the only ones close to him on the figures. I think if you're like me and you like to oppose such short-priced favourites, My Tent or Yours is the obvious one. It would certainly make the race exciting if you could tell after a furlong or two that he had settled.
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I think P&C has an entry this Saturday and he may reach bigger ratings than what MTOY will be capable after being sidelined for almost 2 years. As for Faugheen he's improving with every run and that 176 is highly conservative view, beating an 166 animal, admittedly not at his best by 15 lengths, with a further 13 lengths back to an 160 one, again not at his best, but eased off and not extended would be a crime if Faugheen would run in handicaps. I think Phil Smith of BHA would take a fairer view on that performance because he's not afraid of being ridiculed by Istabraq legions. I hope Top Notch would be up there and give P&C and MTOY the chance of settling and give Faugheen th chance to replicate or improve last Sunday performance.
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If I knew MTOY's had learned to settle I'd be backing him as a credible opponent to Faugheen, however I read a quote somewhere a few weeks back where Hendo hinted that he was still very keen, in that case he'll pull his chance away as even Faugheen won't set a strong enough pace early on for him.
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It certainly is in Henderson's interests to have a fast pace and also hopefully something gives Faugheen a bit more hassle for the lead, if only for the first mile. It's stating the obvious that it's hard to see Faugheen getting beat but hopefully they go out and try and race him for as long as they can rather than letting Ruby have it his own way. Also on that point, I often wonder if a lot of these young jockeys are intimidated by Ruby. Bar Geraghty, I'd nearly say he'd have everyone else half-afraid to make life awkward for him.
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^
good point that one, he deffo comes across as being an abrasive type character, no surprise that many in the weighing room are probably intimidated by him. |
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I said something similar regarding the intimimidation factor on the un de scaux thread
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Just give MTOY a few doses of Kalms before the race - it gives humans the desired effect!
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The tactics of the Champion Hurdle running will be fascinating. I think barring an injury or a fall, it's very hard seeing Faugheen getting beat, but it's how the others run that interests me.
If some go off with the intention of trying to beat Faugheen (ie Nicholls Canyon the other day) then they'll probably be cooked turning for home, and could easily be unplaced. However, if they go off, and kind of accept that they can't live with Faugheen, there could be a brilliant race in behind. Arctic Fire's run the other day was a lot more of a patient ride, and the jockey didn't really go after him, but he was there to mop up the pieces after Nichols Canyon had burned himself out. Therefore, there may be a strange placing or two, because if P&C, MTOY, Nichols Canyon etc go for the win and take Faugheen on, it could easily be one of the forgotten ones (ie The New One, Identity Thief) who could pick up the places going past beaten horses up the run in. |
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You could easily see Top Notch being the sacrificial lamb for P&C with MTOY's being an added beneficiary, not sure how long he'll stick with Faugheen but could mess him up a bit, however if P&C pulls like he did the other day he might end up having to be let loose and that'll help MTOY's too.
That was really strange how P&C pulled like that the other day, it was as bad as I've seen in a long long time. |
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The crying shame and an unfulfilled talent is MTOY's because as much as he pulls, he still finishes his race off pretty well considering, if he had settled he'd have already been a supreme and CH winner IMO, looking forward to seeing him back, hopefully he gets there.
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Dunno if this is news, or someones just made a fairly sizeable mistake with the lay button but, he's just been matched at 1.98
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There's next to nowt waiting to back him, but not looked at the market for a while, that could be the usual state of affairs.....
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Nope, it's been one of the stronger ones in the market with plenty backing him and laying him for weeks now. Especially after peace n co got beat last time he hardened even further.
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Somebody just had a decent bit on Arctic Fire taking all the 12.5 too. Probably nowt in it though.
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Big rumours about him this evening, and theres rarely smoke without fire.
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Rumours from who? This happens every Festival im afraid.
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Bookmaker on oddschecker, net bet or something went 7/4 from 7/1 on Artic Fire for the champion
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Must be reading the betfair forum
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Most probably took a tenner on it,never heard of them?
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Now stevo1 , them rumours are no longer rumours.
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Out
No smoke indeed. Terrible shame for the race of course |
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Def not smoke, im on these markets like a fly is on **** and i spotted the ripples as early as 2 days ago
SEATHESTARS....NO1 15 Feb 16 13:53 Joined: 04 Oct 09 | Topic/replies: 3,758 | Blogger: SEATHESTARS....NO1's blog Dunno if this is news, or someones just made a fairly sizeable mistake with the lay button but, he's just been matched at 1.98 Shocked No smoke without fire indeed, didn't back him apart from a few multis which were nrnb anyways and he coming out makes my book look mighty but have to feel sorry for anyone whom had him as their banker of the entire meeting and who was antepost |
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At least it's not a massively serious injury. 9 weeks rest so will be back raring to go ready for next season (fingers crossed).
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It was a good spot STS, very well done. Disappointing that it took 48hrs to be in the public domain though.
While we were talking I put a little lay up to bridge that gap, but it wasn't even nibbled at so after an hour I took it down and followed the money by having a bit on Arctic Fire instead at 11.5. I don't really like the horse for the race though and so will trade out for a free bet when the market re-opens. Not too sure what wins it now, I couldn't have AP after her prep and is NC quick enough? Could fall to an outsider. |
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Step forward The New One....youll have have a better chance lad.
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If TNO wins Howdi, there will be no better demonstration of the overall weakness of this generation of 2m hurdlers.
Now, MTOY, I could get behind that one. |
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I agree pal but lets be honest its a champ hurdle in name only, this year. The shortest price fav ever to miss a race in my 25 years of following the sport
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Annie Power will fill the void left by the machine
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Douvan currently in talks with Captain Mullins about going for the double.
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For what its worth I think ARTIC FIRE should be fav and I think he'll win
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providing there's pace in the race, could go a bit of a crawl with no machine.
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Alan King if you are reading this.....Have a good think pal young Yarnworth could be worth an entry (as could Min)
and before I get lambased...remember Coneygree |
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* lambasted
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Coneygree wasn't supplemented he was entered.
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piss off back to twitter :)
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Yes but my point they had bollox to run
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Two much dodging match ups in recent years lets reverse the trend #growapair
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No. Totally disagree, they should've entered her. They didn't so hard luck in my book. However my book won't get read.
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