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Faugheen

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By:
wellchief
When: 28 Nov 15 11:47
Have to admit that although I'm not quite as quick to forgive him his run against Nichols Canyon, I did find the 5/2 that Ladbrokes dangled too tempting to resist.

Time will tell whether I should have stook with my instinct or whether that was a fantastic early Christmas present!!
By:
Arklearkle
When: 28 Nov 15 12:37
I missed the 5/2 myself. You can start spending the winnings now Chief (famous last words!!!!)
By:
daveygfc
When: 01 Dec 15 00:47
On the RP podcast Tom Segal said you'll probably get Faugheen around 5/2 on Champion Hurdle day. Even with price enhancements I find that hard to believe. Hacks up at Kempton over Christmas and he'll be cut again to near evens by the bookies wether rightly or wrongly.
By:
timtin
When: 01 Dec 15 01:44
maybe Segal assumed he'll lose at Christmas but it depends alot on who he meets and if he'll get a prep race before the CH. Its a long way to go but I'll fill everything I got with the 6/4 available now, a Christmas present for mid-March Grin Otherwise if he loses the Christmas Hurdle the CH price is irrelevant as Mullins will send him for the Stayers hurdle and hopefully next year what he was bred -> chasing and Gold Cup Excited
By:
Arklearkle
When: 12 Dec 15 15:08
Faugheen sleeps soundly tonight. They dont gallop Semper Medici with the good ones at Willies he would get in their way!
By:
timtin
When: 12 Dec 15 15:34
I wouldn't take P&C run at face value, he was how many lengths ahead of Hargam in the Triumph ? Saying that I won't take anything away from Old Guard, he battld like a fighter and could find even more improvement come March.
By:
blarney
When: 13 Dec 15 12:37
Nothing to worry Faugheen so far this season. Looks a big price at anything above evens.....
By:
Paterson92
When: 13 Dec 15 19:14
blarney have you been sleeping the last month? The last I checked he got turned over by a stable mate and buckled under pressure with an awkward head carriage ... surely that's not "nothing to worry Faugheen so far this season". Were you meaning from Britain?
By:
timtin
When: 13 Dec 15 22:05
Paterson92, I know where you're coming from regarding those that keep saying Faugheen has nothing to worry, or lose any sleep over, etc. Its ridiculous. I think he needs to prove he's at least in the form of last year when he'll go to Kempton. But saying that do you think that Faugheen ran to form in the Morgiana? Or that he has some undiscovered injuries that made him hang right?
I believe that a horse at the start of the season won't run at his peak, especially if he has almost 2 races in a short space of time. Faugheen did last year a gallop at Curragh, just like this year, but he took him 2 weeks after that to get to Ascot, it took only 4 days this year for Morgiana. By Mullins report this year he destroyed Nichols and before the race both him and Ruby said in all interviews Faugheen did a really good piece of work. The couple dozens of watchers at Curragh also explain his price steam from 2/7 into 1/4 1/5 with few days till Morgiana. I will say that on all evidence he basically had a half race that day. Combine that with how big he looked still, and with the fact that unlike last year at Ascot, this time he took on a top class novice who won all but one of his G1 hurdles(u/r when winning another), with flat speed and the highest ever that was sent hurdling, that was allowed to dictate the pace but not doing even fractions upfront and with Wicklow Brave still in contention at the turn, means the pace was on the slow side. They made a sprint for home who didn't advanged Faugheen at all, and coupled with the mistake 2 out and hanging right, he still only got beat by half a length. I think Nichols Canyon, just like I said about Arctic after the CH, will struggle to get within 5-6 lengths of a fully race fit Faugheen in a strongly run race.
Based on all the above I also believe that 6/4 is a fantastic price and I filled by boots and I will continue with those that offer it, but I do have concerns on how he'll run at Kempton, the couple of smart improvers this season like Top Notch, Old Guard and Identity Thief are very underestimated, even P&C is underestimated now. And the 'old guard' MTOY(runner-up in `14 CH) and The New One(even without the pathetic injury excuse that his fans use) are also underestimated. Ruby said in a blog he underestimated Nichols Canyon and he'll never do it again, but who will he underestimate next?
By:
Paterson92
When: 13 Dec 15 23:09
All very good points you make timtim. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Faugheen fan. He got away with his weight in the lead up to Cheltenham last year due to the lack of quality opposition. I can't find the official quote but I specifically remember Skelton saddling him at Kempton and saying he's never seen a horse as big ahead of a big race. It's no secret that Ricci asks Willie to have his horses peak in the spring (see photo I posted about 10 posts back and on that evidence he should improve a hell of a lot). I also believe not to look into seasonal reappearances too much and also believe that Faugheen (assuming he is okay) would beat Nichols Canyon if they were to meet again, regardless of tactics or ground. BUT, Mullins was confident stating that Faugheen had worked all over him at home in a piece of work they done in the lead up to the race. Afterwards, he stated he was shocked and that NC obviously saves his best work for the racecourse. That's fair enough, perhaps he does. However even as a Faugheen fan, the more I watch the race, the more concerned I am. Regardless of size, he hasn't ran to last years form. I wouldn't have been surprised had WB finished so close to NC, but the fact he got as close to Faugheen is concerning. At the time I thought perhaps WB had improved over hurdles, however his subsequent run in the Fighting Fifth was disappointing in similar conditions. NC done what someone should have done in the Champion Hurdle and that's test Faugheen's jumping. That's exactly what happened and he was in danger a long way from home. Will they let Ruby have his own way out in front again? Not a chance! He never travelled at all, hung badly and didn't pick up as he usually does - this is after reportedly working well at home. A below par performance and serious question marks now.
By:
timtin
When: 14 Dec 15 00:04
Yes Mullins did state Faugheen worked all over him, as I said above they took them at Curragh where couple of dozens of watchers saw the great piece of gallop. Faugheen had almost a race beating Nichols senselessly but the latter keeps to himself apparently. Only after this gallop Mullins and Ruby gave interviews and said they were happy with how he's working, Ruby blog: "John Codd, who rides him at home, kept on telling us he’s in great form, and we saw that for ourselves on Tuesday". But then after only 4 days Faugheen was asked for another race which probably would've been fine if the correct tactics had been used or if this had been the middle of the season when he was 100% fit and the stamina/muscles recovery takes less time than when coming back from so long off training. The closeness of WB only justifies the lack of a strong pace and the fact he was in contention at the turn shows that form is unreliable. We've seen where WB would finish in a evenly run race like Top Notch and Identity Thief assured in the Fighting Fifth. The fact that Faugheen didn't picked and hanged was due to the fact he just had almost another race and was tired. Therefore I'm not at all concerned about Morgiana, he has plenty of class for any generation and if he shows it in the Christmas Hurdle the 6/4 will look big but I know the dangers are there and plenty, they're just underestimated.
By:
Paterson92
When: 14 Dec 15 00:22
Until now that's the first I've heard of the 4 day gap between the witnessed workout and the Morgiana, thanks for sharing. I just can't bring myself to back him at the current price after what I witnessed last time. I would rather wait and see what Faugheen brings to Kempton. Unfortunately it's likely he will be evens or less afterwards if all goes to plan. He owes me nothing after his Neptune and Champion Hurdle wins as he's been my main ante post bet for the last 2 years, but sitting out this time. Will of course be cheering him on regardless, best of luck!
By:
timtin
When: 14 Dec 15 00:45
Thats not only my assumption that Faugheen did too much, it was also Mullins who just after the race said that maybe Faugheen "left his race behind" as he destroyed Nichols Canyon on Tuesday. So live and learn, going to the track must've switched his brain in racing mode and even though they did the same gallop last year maybe he didn't worked himself out that much probably as he was too fat and the Ascot race was 2-3 weeks later so it wouldn't have affected him anyway. The Morgiana form already proved unreliable so for me thats enough to dismiss the run, but Faugheen will need to prove on Christmas that he maintains his last season form and beat TNO by at least 4-5 lengths(if Ruby asks him). Anything less would be concerning for my 6/4 supposed value.
By:
scooby91
When: 20 Dec 15 17:52
I'm very happy to see old guard is entered for the Christmas hurdle and is a likely runner. he's due a sound beating by faugheen. anyone whos backed him good luck to them but I can't have old guard being in the frame for a champion.
A mullins 123 for me.
By:
timtin
When: 20 Dec 15 23:15
apparently he's keen at home and the race only has 4 runners so `why not` is Nicholls thinking. It should be noted that Kempton is not Chelt and horses don't improve in 1-2 weeks, by Festival time he might well improve another 5-10 pounds but atm I can't see how he'll get involved with either TNO or Faugheen.
By:
Arklearkle
When: 29 Dec 15 14:59
Nichols Canyon gave it all there. Due to a combination of factors he beat Faugheen last time but imo not capable of lacing the great ones shoes.
By:
The Dragon
When: 29 Dec 15 16:13
im on identity thief ew at 25/1, faugheen should win but its no price
By:
Arklearkle
When: 29 Dec 15 16:18
Good bet Dragon. The good thing about backing one at those odds is you dont have to risk the house to have a good win. Besides there are no certainties in racing. Annie Power who was streets ahead of her opponents proved that.
By:
The Dragon
When: 29 Dec 15 16:33
yes arkle was impressed with its win before running in ireland today so had a punt then. ran well again today pity it couldn't just see off nicholls canyon
By:
buddeliea
When: 29 Dec 15 17:22
Thief was available at 33 after the Fighting Fifth,could not believe it,and after today I am rather pleased.
He will be better on better ground.
Quiet excited about this one.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 29 Dec 15 18:05
Was travelling like the better horse and my guess is that on better ground Thief may be slightly superior. 25-1 is a nice price.
By:
blackballed1
When: 10 Jan 16 20:19
Nichols canyon all the way for me folks! This horse has all you would want! Goes on any ground and is rock solid eway material and will do for me! Like I said on another thread I didn't usually do antepost but I have with this fella. Like a few have said no certs in life so faugheen at odds on not for me with the up and comers snapping at his heels and I can certainly see the case for identity thief having a shout but for me I don't see him turning the tables on canyon! Had his chance at Xmas and by the line Nichols was pulling away from him.
By:
timtin
When: 11 Jan 16 01:09
I don't know about NC, the next time they'll meet the inclination of his jockey will be to take on Faugheen and as of yet there isn't a horse that stayed on Faugheen's pace upfront without affecting their own chances. The only exceptions are his seasons reappearances when he was either setting- Ascot `14 or following - Ptown `15 a moderate pace that didn't affected anyone other than himself, only beating 3 lengths Blue Fashion and then getting beat half a length, admittedly by a v good horse. Of course the seasonal debuts also coincided with Faugheen's worst fitness and this season also with a hard gallop only 4-5 days prior to the race itself.

But the tendency of NC jockey will be to stay with Faugheen and that will of course be a mistake, the only way realistically to beat him is to wait off the pace but not to far back, and have a good enough horse that can come forward in the last furlongs with plenty of energy to combat Faugheen's turn of foot. The only horses that have that class are AF, MTOY and P&C. The last 2 named if they can finally settle off a good pace, set by Top Notch and Nichols Canyon, then they could trouble the favourite. But if IT is given a good ride he can improve by March on better ground. NC could again show battling qualities and stay on, but so could TN. Getting the right tricast on this requires either a genius or a very lucky punter.
By:
blackballed1
When: 11 Jan 16 07:34
I think nichols has to be ridden up front as his worst performance was in the Neptune when ruby himself said he should have made more use of him. Every other race he has been up front and won every race! I think faugheen is a better horse but just on the price nichols canyon has to be the play eway as he is the only 1 to beat faugheen Artic fire has had a few chances now and not really got that close to think he will beat him at any point! and I take the view that nichols canyon beat him fair and square they would have been as fit as each other that day! I love horses that win with class but I love ones even more that when it comes to a hardy battle you know your still in with a shout brave inca style! Might still not be enough to win but that's the joys of punting.
By:
delsie777
When: 18 Jan 16 15:49
I see PP have edged Faugheen out still further for the Irish Champion at the weekend - - also longest by some way for AF. Looking more and more like a WPM is going to award Nichols Canyon a penalty!
By:
trigger3
When: 24 Jan 16 15:26
Wow, just elevated himself to another level, demolishing some good animals in the process.
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 24 Jan 16 15:30
looked his best performance

no point in anything else turning up
By:
timtin
When: 24 Jan 16 15:31
Thats how the best horse looks like, beating top class animals by dozen of lengths. Mullins learned a valuable lesson in Morgiana, don't give the horse a ****g hard work just 4 days before an official race against a v good horse. Ruby was also reminded that Faugheen is a 3 miler, and doesn't want a dawdle over 2 miles to see him at his best. Job done today at least and with a prep race now first time in 3 seasons fans will be hopeful to see an even better performance at Cheltenham.
By:
duffy
When: 24 Jan 16 15:32
My inclination was always to try and take this beast on, to my cost, that was the best I've ever seen from him and I think now, belatedly I finally get it.Crazy
By:
trigger3
When: 24 Jan 16 15:33
Could end up a very small CH field with most horses just riding to get a place.
By:
impossible123
When: 24 Jan 16 16:05
That was awesome! Looks increasingly like a Mullins Benevolent Day on 15th March.
By:
timtin
When: 24 Jan 16 16:16
Was 6th spot trending on Twitter in the last hour, now 7th spot. Not his usual 1st but horses rarely get into general discussions over there.

@duffy I've been describing that before CH win(proven right when McCoy said it was mistake attacking him so early) and also few posts above when talking about NC. Its about time people start to accept it Happy
By:
trigger3
When: 24 Jan 16 16:23
Where does he sit among the great hurdles? For me he was already better than Hurricane Fly before today and if he wins the CH again this year he is capable of elevating himself up among Istabraq and some of the other greats that won multiple CHs. Visually his cruising speed is massive and he simply burns off other horses often leaving permanent scars if they try and stay with him.
By:
Mooono
When: 24 Jan 16 16:58
Makes you wonder how many mars bars Willie fed Faugheeen before the Morgiana hurdle, disgusting!
By:
Autocue
When: 24 Jan 16 17:07
Marvellous performance today but again Ruby was given a soft lead. Presumably the other stable jockeys were riding to instructions. The only chink in Faugheen's armour is his jumping (took the last on all fours). I doubt anyone will be brave enough to try and put it under pressure at Cheltenham. I suppose Peace & Co might for half a lap regardless of what his jockey wants him to do Grin
By:
timtin
When: 24 Jan 16 17:51

Jan 24, 2016 -- 4:23PM, trigger3 wrote:


Where does he sit among the great hurdles? For me he was already better than Hurricane Fly before today and if he wins the CH again this year he is capable of elevating himself up among Istabraq and some of the other greats that won multiple CHs. Visually his cruising speed is massive and he simply burns off other horses often leaving permanent scars if they try and stay with him.


I've defended Istabraq form so many times but Faugheen's better, and more talented as well, a pointer who won a now G2 race over 3 miles to have the pace to achieve so much over the minimum trip is speechless. He was designed for GC this horse, not for CH and yet he defies his pedigree and puts up 180+ performance over 2 miles with Ruby stopping him in the last 100 yards. All periods with their champions though and Faugheen needs to continue his winning run... until his first race next season Laugh

By:
buddeliea
When: 24 Jan 16 17:55
Don't let's have another debate that can't be proven either way,it' always involves needless criticism of great horses.
Let's just enjoy Faugheen.
By:
timtin
When: 26 Jan 16 10:43
Its pointless @budd but from the RPR ratings point of view Istabraq only has 2 performances that are rated higher than Faugheen, one was in the Punchestown CH beating a G2 horse Decoupage by 3 lengths giving him 5 pounds, and the other was in a `99 Tipperary race beating Limestone Lad by 7 lengths who burned himself out trying to make all from the front on a muddiest mud ground.

All handicappers have taken a hell of a conservative view on Sunday run but that was the best 2 mile performance I've seen and don't think any former champion hurdlers would've better it. Remember Walsh could've forced Faugheen to go even further in the last half furlong but never asked him any serious questions.
By:
Autocue
When: 26 Jan 16 10:58
You have to take account of the opposition. How many championship races have Nichols Canyon and Arctic Fire won in open company?
By:
timtin
When: 26 Jan 16 11:30
there's only 4 championship races in the calendar, only 1 over 2 miles hurdles. AF would've been champion by 5 lengths from 2 former champions HF and Jezki last year without Faugheen. What is certain is that both are proper G1 horses.
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